Hairy Asian Experiences - GreyJoy (J) vs. Q-Ball (A)

[GreyJoy]

So with the conquest of Misol, it's clear that the allies are trying to advance north in the southern DEI, bypassing Boela and Ambon. That suits me well, cause there will be a very narrow bottleneck between Sorong and Boela and I am pretty sure they won't be able to penetrate much further without covering their flanks. To clear his flanks he will need to lose a lot of time at Boela and Sorong...time that I will use to get my new defensive line stronger (Bab-Pelieu-TauElanden, Sargi, Menado etc...).

I'm also planning to use this time to rebuild some destroyed divisions at Mindanao and Luzon, so to start defending deep (gotta admit that my deep defences aren't that good at the moment).

Let's face the truth: the allies are really too strong now to be stopped. What I need to do is to slow them down as much as possible and make them pay an heavy price for every step of their advance towards the fatherland

[ny59giants]

I wonder if this mod needs to have a modification of the at start bases with Refineries for Japan. Those bases may need to have either additional Light Industry or have the base generate a specific number of supplies equal to what you would have gotten from the Refineries in a stock scenario. This fix would still have large Refineries like you have at Palembang not generating supplies at near 30k per month.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I wonder if this mod needs to have a modification of the at start bases with Refineries for Japan. Those bases may need to have either additional Light Industry or have the base generate a specific number of supplies equal to what you would have gotten from the Refineries in a stock scenario. This fix would still have large Refineries like you have at Palembang not generating supplies at near 30k per month.

Without the DBB modification I always thought in my mind that the 10% supply rule derived from oil->fuel was an abstraction of local LI/airplane fuel vs. ship fuel very nicely done in stock.. this view of the abstraction certainly helps game play vs. a more literal interpretation and need for additional LI factories that would produce supplies given resources ... But I post expecting religious responses [;)] ...For example .. Certainly Palembang is not devoid of natural resources that local economies could not produce some supplies .. http://www.kadin-indonesia.or.id/en/doc ... umatra.pdf So woth the stock rule refineries represent not only fractional distilleries but some LI to support the local economy ..[Yes I know the developers thought that 10% would go to airplane fuel ... but what abstractions work for game play?]

[GreyJoy]

Micheal...I know and I completely agree. However we've already asked once Michealm to add the missing stocks of fuel and oil in this modified scenario and i'm not keen to ask Brad for another "aid".
Maybe this will simulate even better the economical difficulties Japan had in RL


Jan 29, 1944

East of Wake the allied TFs are massing at 14 hexes from the base...

The KB avoided the enemy's subs south of Bab and moved closer to Biak (more to avoid the subs than for tactical purposes).

Enemy's cruisers are getting close to Babar...probably a bombardment mission against Timor.

Menado is becoming a true fortress. We managed to extract - unopposed - an Air Army HQ at Boela, along with several engineer units...very usefull!

Enemy's CVEs and BBs still based at Hansa Bay...

[GreyJoy]

Jan 30, 1944

WAKE: The enemy gets closer... now the first enemy TF is at 9 hex east of Wake... ready for a bombardment run? Subs are arriving, while the KB is waiting for the oilers to arrive

EASTERN NG: The enemy's CVEs (at least 4) are advancing, escorting a big AP/LST convoy... an invasion of Sarmi? Now the TFs are just south east of Hollandia

SOUTHERN DEI: The enemy bombs Lautem and Alor with CAs and DDs. Unopposed...for the moment. At the same time we ambushed a raid of Liberators, escorted by Hellcats, over Hollandia, killing 20 Libs and 16 Hellcats...not bad! Brad is using barges to send engineers to Misol... i'll keep a deep aye on this island. Cannot let it be built

BURMA: seems that we've slowed the enemy with some fake movements of troops east of Akyab. This should have bought us time to reposition the 39th Division and 2 regiments of the 48th ID on our western flank. Heavy recon of Rangoon...I foresee a coming raid here...

GENERALLY i'm moving lots of reserves around. I'm not sure why Brad is taking so much time to move to Wake, despite my KB is still 4/5 days far from there... is that a simple bait?

[Cribtop]

I too wonder if Wake is just a feint. His real move could be in the Eastern DEI/N Guinea front (which are starting to merge) or even Sumatra. Probably the former.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

I too wonder if Wake is just a feint. His real move could be in the Eastern DEI/N Guinea front (which are starting to merge) or even Sumatra. Probably the former.

Wake isn't strategically that important at the present moment. Sure it will nice to keep it, so to have an eastern pillow between him and the Mariannas, but he already has Tabiutea and from there he could easily start a campaign in the Marshall/Gilberts in order to get to CENTPAC fast. At the same time Wake is probably the worst possible place to use my Combined Fleet. Even if it was a real invasion (something that I really doubt), I wouldn't risk my CVs there... deep waters, no LBA support, no nearby safe ports to get the damaged ships...nothing.
And what if I lost Wake? It wouldn't change much- From Wake he will still need to take Eniwetok (another atoll landing) to get a decent port before launching a direct operation against the Mariannas... which are, anyway, well protected by 4 full divisions and plenty of support units.
Also moving the KB eastwards now would mean to leave completely undefended the DEI...a thing that I cannot let to happen.

[GreyJoy]

Jan 31, 1944

Ok guys, things are getting hot.

WAKE: I think I can confirm that this is a bait, or, at least, a minor theatre for him.
I sent a sentai of Helens at Wake. Flying low, at 1000 ft. the Helens found one of the enemy's TF at 7 hexes east of Wake. No air cover, even if we had the confirmation that SDBs were present with this fleet. We spotted some LCIs, an AVD (!?!?!?) and 2 LSTs. One of those LSTs was hit by a bomb and... was empty! However I cannot believe that he wants to land on a defended atoll with LSTs and LCIs without any APA/AKA... so this is NOT his main vector. Those CVs we spotted few days ago must have been a couple of CVEs escorting... Nothing serious.

Eastern NG: The CVEs and the xAPs near Hollandia did not move... for 3 days in a row they remained there, 2 hexes SE of Hollandia... clearly another bait. We spotted 3 or 4 CVEs here in this area, while there are BBs and APAs at Hansa Bay. So this may be his main vector (with the CVs lingering a bit more south just out of my sight). I'm keeping my KB pretty close (Bab area) so to be able to get down there in a couple of days if needed.

SOUTHERN DEI: Swarms of PTs popped up at night north of Misol and Sorong... I counted at least 5 or 6 big PT TFs operating north of Gorong... these basterds can really ruin your day. Hate them so much. Brad keeps on using barges and cheap ships to advance. They do not worth the effort of sending against them anything serious...just a waste of fuel and ammos and the risk of getting sunk by a lucky PT hit... oh well. However the CVs aren't there and, as far as I can tell, only some CAs are operating in the Darwing area, for the rest just normal transports and lots of DDs.
Talking about the DDs... Brad sent at night 4 different DDTFs (a total of 23 DDs) to bomb Ambon at night... and they met a serious CD unit who managed to keep them at bay. My air units have already moved out (disbanding the damaged planes) after the succesfull ambush of yesterday against his Liberators.

Lots of "scouting" xAK TFs moving west of Sumatra... he's clearly testing my search capabilities...

[GreyJoy]

Feb 1, 1944

The KB reaches Menado and refuel (converting 2 more Sentais from D4Y3 to D4Y4).
The Grace began its production.[:)]

Near Wake, there's only a lone enemy CVE who sunk a transport TF north of Wake. Some cruisers and DDs but nothing else...a Feint!!!

More CVEs are popping up around my corners... NW of Exmouth, half way from Exmouth and Christmas I.O., another CVE sunk, with TBFs, 2 xAKs... yet another Feint I think!

The CVEs near Hollandia remain there...

No enemy CVs around.

Scouting allied TFs are spotted west of Sumatra and near Sebang.

P-47s Sweeps find nothing to fight with over the skies of Sorong. The Japanese air force is playing a cat&mouse game against the allied steamroller.

Brad is dedicating a particular attention to the Timor area... let's see....

In the meanwhile our inner perimeter is growing stronger...

[ny59giants]

Hit the "Z" button next turn to see if any of your Naval Search arcs have major gaps in them. Seems to me that Brad is probing for a weak spot.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Hit the "Z" button next turn to see if any of your Naval Search arcs have major gaps in them. Seems to me that Brad is probing for a weak spot.

Sure, I always do. Spend many minutes every turn checking my search arcs. Brad is clearly looking for a gap...

From the Kuriles to the Bay of Bengal I think i'm covered pretty well. I'm using several IJN bomber sentais, quipped with G3M3s just for search duties, along with subs with glens and AVs with Norms...

[Capt. Harlock]

I counted at least 5 or 6 big PT TFs operating north of Gorong... these basterds can really ruin your day. Hate them so much. Brad keeps on using barges and cheap ships to advance. They do not worth the effort of sending against them anything serious...

I could be way off, but this would seem to be where the Ki-45's could be used to great advantage. They've got enough firepower and bomb-load to work nicely against light ships.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

I counted at least 5 or 6 big PT TFs operating north of Gorong... these basterds can really ruin your day. Hate them so much. Brad keeps on using barges and cheap ships to advance. They do not worth the effort of sending against them anything serious...

I could be way off, but this would seem to be where the Ki-45's could be used to great advantage. They've got enough firepower and bomb-load to work nicely against light ships.

I know many people believe in the use of fighters against PTs. Unfortunately i don't [:(]

A Nick produced expends 36 HI points, not to count the cost of a trained LowNav pilot. Even if sent against not-CAPped PTs, you're gonna lose lots of them to flak and ops losses. When his PTs operate pretty close to his interconnected net of air bases, my Nicks are gonna find heavy air opposition.....

Is that Worth the price in terms of HI points? I don't think so... in 1944 he can produce hundreds of PTs for no cost at all...

No, i don't think so. Sadly...

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

I counted at least 5 or 6 big PT TFs operating north of Gorong... these basterds can really ruin your day. Hate them so much. Brad keeps on using barges and cheap ships to advance. They do not worth the effort of sending against them anything serious...

I could be way off, but this would seem to be where the Ki-45's could be used to great advantage. They've got enough firepower and bomb-load to work nicely against light ships.

I know many people believe in the use of fighters against PTs. Unfortunately i don't [:(]

A Nick produced expends 36 HI points, not to count the cost of a trained LowNav pilot. Even if sent against not-CAPped PTs, you're gonna lose lots of them to flak and ops losses. When his PTs operate pretty close to his interconnected net of air bases, my Nicks are gonna find heavy air opposition.....

Is that Worth the price in terms of HI points? I don't think so... in 1944 he can produce hundreds of PTs for no cost at all...

No, i don't think so. Sadly...

A beautiful explanation of the application of Clausewitz use of measured force ... [&o]

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock



I could be way off, but this would seem to be where the Ki-45's could be used to great advantage. They've got enough firepower and bomb-load to work nicely against light ships.

I know many people believe in the use of fighters against PTs. Unfortunately i don't [:(]

A Nick produced expends 36 HI points, not to count the cost of a trained LowNav pilot. Even if sent against not-CAPped PTs, you're gonna lose lots of them to flak and ops losses. When his PTs operate pretty close to his interconnected net of air bases, my Nicks are gonna find heavy air opposition.....

Is that Worth the price in terms of HI points? I don't think so... in 1944 he can produce hundreds of PTs for no cost at all...

No, i don't think so. Sadly...

A beautiful explanation of the application of Clausewitz use of measured force ... [&o]

[:D] Thanks! Too kind!

However i made some calculations... a Nick (2Es) costs: 36 HIs for the airframe and 36 for two engines... it's 72 HIs!!!! More than what produces the Singapore HI on a single turn!


Here's a screenshot showing the penetration of the allies in Southern DEI... as you can see, even if it's scary to see the allies getting to Gorong->Misol->Babo, the corridor is still very narrow... that's why he's using barges to move troops and supplies there... too risky! For sure he cannot move up there big warships untill Boela-Ambon and Biak-Sorong areas are neutralized. And they are pretty tough nuts to crack. I'd love to have him Landing in one of those... but i'm pretty sure i won't be that lucky....

[GreyJoy]

and this is the so-called "second perimeter". As you can see there's a kind of a Gothic line just Beyond the present front.
Menado is a lvl 9 AF, with an Air Army HQ.
Air HQs are also present at Kendari, Makassar, Balikapan, Babeldolap, Talaud-Einlanden and Davao.
If the KB remains intact... it won't be an easy grab

[GreyJoy]

Feb 2-3, 1944

On the second we sent a cruiser force to Boela. The plan was to intercept his barges moving to Misol and then retreating to Boela where I had moved 300 fighters to cover. We ended up missing completely the barges and tangled with PTs for no damage on either side.
However, when the sun rose, 56 Avengers and 20 Wildcats attacked my cruisers at Boela... finding 300 fighters to wait them. Not a single one got back alive [:D]

Near WAKE the enemy is finally retiring eastwards...a feint. nothing more than a feint.

In Eastern NG Brad finally landed on the 3rd at Sarmi the 33rd Division, finding the 15th Division waiting for them. The supply bridge has done wonders in the last months, along with some more supplies that seem to flow from Nabire. The units, despite being in red, still have enough supplies to fight. Hope to make another Saumlaki here (BTW at Saumlaki my units are still pinning down the 27th US Division). Let's see if I can make him pay...Biak is very close...

NW of Exmouth the enemy CVE retired...another feint.

My subs sunk 2 xAKs resupplying Cocos Is.

In Burma Brad started to use 4Es for ground attack on the plain terrain at Prome. 300 4Es attacked the 5th Division, disabling more than 40 squads...mmmm.... afaik this is against our HRs... but i'm not that sure if it's fair to raise the problem now in 1944... suggestions? In few days I may see that division destroyed even with 5 forts and plenty of AA units....mmmmmmmm

Tanaka and Muto are repositioning near Kendari after a short trip to Ambon.

[GreyJoy]

So... The "Sarmi" vector wasn't a feint...but yet wasn't something major. It was well foreseen...Brad has been waiting months before advancing there... and he just landed with 1 single division. Still no CVs. Just a couple of CVEs and 300 planes on LRCAP from Hollandia.
It was an obvious vector of advance. Woleai will be his next target in CENTPAC...pretty sure of that. He won't lose time and assets against Truk, Ponape or Kusiae... and now that we know, even against Wake.

The clock keeps on moving fast and Brad doesn't have much longer if he wants to start bombing the HI before mid 1945.
No, he needs an hail mary move. Sumatra remains my best bet. He stopped reconning it, after years of constant recon from Cocos... that must mean something.
My reserves are moving consequently.

But my main goal, right now, is to keep the balance of my defence. I must remain flexible.

[obvert]

Tea leaves are your specialty! Keep on divining Nic!

About the 4Es if you do have an HR stating no 4E ground bombing you should at least point it out even if you want to just start a negotiation. It is tough in clear hexes, and wait until they retreat somewhere you don't want and are stuck with no forts in the clear. Then it's all over.

[GreyJoy]

Feb 4, 1944

Brad left for the weekend. So this is the last one till monday.

However some news to report.
The allies reinforced Sarmi, bringing a USMC Tank Bn and the II US Corp HQ. They, along with the 33rd US Division, are facing the 15th IJA division and the sturdy 17th Army HQ.
Now this was a "cheap" Landing operation for Brad. A couple of CVEs, some cruisers (Wichita being the strongest one) and a lot of DDs but very few APA/AKAs and a lot of barges... a kind of a frog leap. The air cover was provided by 300 fighters based at Hollandia.
Nothing major.

Now the question is: What is the importance of Sarmi? How much should i devote to keep Sarmi in Japanese hands? Can i efford to divert scarse men and assets to this place or not?

Once Sarmi falls, the door to Biak is open. Biak and the nearby islands have been covered, during the allied advance on the other side of NG, by NG itself, but with Sarmi the allies could easily send waves of DDs to harras my sealanes, thus isolating Biak for good.
At the same time he already has so many big base on the same parallel of Biak that i think that strategically doesn't change much.

Still i'd like to create a new Saumlaki or Hollandia here... even if i'd gain 2 months that would be decisive for my war effort....

Enemy CVEs keep on popping up near Exmouth. Still think the main vector will be towards Sumatra....I'm keeping the combined fleet near Ambon....just to be sure he doesn't try a coup the main somewhere in the Southern DEI while i look west.

Keeping my reserves well behind the lines.