Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Port Arthur re-fills with fuel. Game on at Fusan!

Good to know. Watching with interest. Continue updates on how it goes. Thanks!

[Cribtop]

Will do.

Also, per Tracker we actually got 8 of the 9 B-26s at Amchitka. Banzai.

[ny59giants]

B-26s are relatively easy kills. Those B-25 attack bombers with all those forward firing guns can be nasty against those Oscars. Watch out for them. [:-]

OT - I'll get a chance to watch the pre-season Giants game tonight. Do you think either of our teams wins the division or will it be the Deadskins??

[Cribtop]

On paper, if we stay healthy, I would actually pick the Cowboys. In the Jones/Romo era, I've learned that doesn't matter. Thus, I see two scenarios - 1) RGIII doesn't break - Redskins win; 2) RGIII breaks, Giants win. The Iggles will be interesting with their new coach, but are riddled with injuries already.

Speaking of Oscars, does the Oscar II really have 2 X 12.7mm or are they really 7.7s and the database is in error?

[adm]

Off the top of my head I do not remember when, but earlyish in the Oscars production run they switched to two 12.7mms, some interim models had one of each.

[FeurerKrieg]

In da babes, -a has 2x7.7, -b has 1 of each and -c has 2x12.7.

I don't recall if you are playing stock or not. I suspect the da babes one is pretty close to reality.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Speaking of Oscars, does the Oscar II really have 2 X 12.7mm or are they really 7.7s and the database is in error?

should be 12.7mm in the II .... they were pretty much converting them in the field IRL. Of course it all depended upon what ammo they had as well ...

[Cribtop]

Thanks. PS, we are a few turns farther in, and I believe we are showing a clear ability to pull fuel to Fusan from Port A, which is in turn backfilled from the fuel dump at HK within 1 or 2 days. I have a big oil convoy unloading at Fukuoka and they will take a detour to suck fuel out of Fusan. Again, so far this is just an experiment as the sea lanes are still open, but it is a useful proof of concept for later. I still have no idea what sort of losses we are experiencing during the land transit.

[Cribtop]

April 24, 1943

Subs

A stubborn ASW TF DCs Sailfish near Balikpapan three separate times without result.

I-6 misses a big xAK near Cold Bay and takes a DC hit.

5th Fleet

Ketoi Jima goes to forts 2.

SE Fleet

Guam goes to forts 2 as well.

We try a night raid at Ndeni, but Havocs on night CAP cause most of the Bettys to abort.

Southern Army

Split between three TFs, Yamato, Mushashi, Nagato, Mutsu, all 4 Mogami CAs, and 18 DDs bombard Derby. The troops there appear to take quite a pasting, with hundreds of reported casualties. IJAAF bombers have switched from the airfield to ground attacks as well. This all occurs on the same day our advancing army moves into the adjacent hex. I suspect CF knows something is up, now.

Burma

The enemy bombs the craters at Cox's Bazar.

[Cribtop]

April 25, 1943

Subs

A Sally reports a hit on Greenling near Hong Kong.

SE Fleet

Enemy 4Es raid PM. We are almost ready to try to stop this, but CF's raids are unpredictable and infrequent, thus hard to intercept.

Buka and Nadzab go to forts 4.

Cooktown goes to airfield 7 for the bad guys.

Southern Army

The enemy sends his B-17s to bomb our army near Derby. Yikes, we thought they were out of range from Alice Springs but miscounted by 1 hex. Tomorrow a CVE and CS that were providing CAP for the bombardment TFs will LRCAP. Also, Nells out of Darwin will try a night raid on Alice. The troops are ok, but DIS could be a problem if this continues.

Port Hedland makes airfield 2.

[Cribtop]

April 26, 1943

Subs

Flying Fish duds on an xAK near Aogashima.

5th Fleet

CF sweeps Amchitka with P-38s, but our LRCAP has vacated the premises.

SE Fleet

All ships assigned to Combined Fleet at Truk are fully repaired and ready to go if needed.

Finschafen and Saidor make forts 3.

Southern Army

A6M3a and Rufes defend our army at Derby from the B-17s and do surprisingly well. The 3as get two outright shoot downs (ie on the first pass, not an attack on a bomber damaged in a prior pass), which I've never seen before from any Zero model. Nice. In total, 5 B-17s don't get home and many more are damaged. The raid itself does little damage to our forces.

Burma

We tried a night raid/sweep combo at Schwebo, but poor weather makes the former ineffective and scrubs the latter completely. This Op was ordered because the base is showing enemy fighters present for the first time in a while.

[Cribtop]

April 27, 1943

Subs

I-32 evades an ASW TF near Fiji.

5th Fleet

The B-26s return to Amchitka today. We will have to try to jump them again.

SE Fleet

The arrival of Dinah IIIs at Munda allows us to recon Luganville. We spot a large combat TF with a BB, CAs and CLs reported. Cribtop Intel thinks this is a defensive force that has been in position for a while, but we will be ready if they move north.

Southern Army

Our army in Oz marches into the Derby hex. The B-17s stay home.

Burma

We sweep Schwebo but find no CAP. CF bombs the airfields at both Cox's Bazar and Akyab.

[Cribtop]

April 28, 1943

Today marks the beginning of the end for the enemy beachhead in NW Oz.

IJN ASW DCs Gudgeon near Ominato and gets a hit. The Mod-2 and Type 2 DC launchers are starting to have an effect.

SE Fleet

Alert? Bettys spot a four ship TF at 112, 143, just south of Rennell Island. Is this a probe of our air defenses? A CAP trap? An FT TF invasion? The prelude to a bigger move? We don't know, but we will set the local IJNAF to Nav Attack with carefully chosen max ranges just in case. Cribtop HQ would very much welcome a move in this AO now with Combined Fleet parked at Truk. We are also savvy that CF may be trying to get our CAP reduced ahead of a raid on Munda. If his 4Es come there they will get a hot reception from Zeros, Nicks and Rufes.

Southern Army

A night raid by Nells gets good hits on parked B-17s at Alice Springs, further reducing the air threat to our offensive.

We had some trepidation attacking the Aussies with second line IJA troops, but after months of starvation, bombing and bombardment they are a shadow of their true strength. DA takes Derby easily from 1/3rd of the 3rd Australian Division with 30:1 odds. Casualties for the enemy are 2067(343). The 343 squads destroyed is compared to only 20 disabled, a sure sign of their poor supply status. The IJA takes 154(0) casualties and is in fine shape. Supplies and a base force will land at the captured port of Derby soon to shore up air defense and logistics.

Meanwhile, on to Broome! Cribtop HQ expects to receive the surrender of the rest of 3rd Oz Division plus 3 or 4 support units. That will bring the enemy's attempted counter-invasion of NW Oz to an end, finishing the campaign that began with the carrier battle at Exmouth in satisfactory fashion from the Japanese perspective.

Burma

Tomorrow the infantry of 17th Army will emerge from the jungle 1 hex SW of Magwe, while 18th Army will arrive 1 hex to the SE. Then all Hell breaks loose. Daily bombing has continued on the enemy forces concentrated at Meiktila, they can't be in good shape.

Logistics

A concerted effort has LOTS of supply flowing to forward bases. Places like Darwin, Munda, Lae, and many more are receiving upwards of 30K in new supplies each. We want plenty of extra supply on hand once enemy counterattacks begin, and with four million tons plus at Tokyo, it was time to share the wealth a bit.

[Cribtop]

April 29, 1943

Subs

Our wolf pack East of Dutch Harbor spots a convoy and will try to converge on it tomorrow.

SE Fleet

The Liberators hit PM today. This begins to establish a pattern, as CF recons the base the day before he attacks. Our interceptors may finally have a "tell" here.

No sign of the mystery TF spotted near Rennell Island yesterday. We will stay on alert one more day just in case.

Southern Army

We shift the IJAAF to bombing troops at Broome and are surprised to hit the 4th Aussie Division. After checking the combat logs from the battle at Derby, we are shocked to realize we defeated the entire 3rd Division there. That means we may have two full Australian divisions in the bag. Wow.

Dobo goes to airfield 4.

Burma

17th Army enters the plains near Magwe. 18th Army is one day late due to messed up Op mode settings, but they will arrive tomorrow.

The Allies recon Ramree Island today, which is unusual. The base is well defended.

A night raid at Schwebo hits several Hurricanes. Tomorrow we are making an all out effort against the fighters here.

China

Timely reinforcements, in the form of 3 brigades, 1 arty unit and 1 engineer unit, arrive today. We have already maneuvered to blunt CF's attempted counter-offensive near Kweiyang, but more troops is always good.

Liuchow goes to forts 5.

Logistics

We have continued to pull fuel to Fusan via the Tokyo convoy, even after loading 50K tons onto tankers that tomorrow will make the short leap to Fukuoka. Clearly, this gambit will work, but the question is how much are we losing by using the land route from Hong Kong to Fusan? How does spoilage in transit work?

I have to credit Michael a/k/a nygiants59 here. I adapted his tactic of setting ships to have Oosthaven as home port to pull fuel from Palembang on a grand scale by having excess Tokyo ships set homeport as Fusan. This overcame the fact that both HK and Port Arthur are level 9 ports and got lots of gas moved to level 8 Fusan.

[Cribtop]

April 30, 1943

It's been a long two weeks working an offsite assignment and the AAR has suffered. Time to catch up. Big things continue to come to a head in Burma.

Subs

Gar duds on an xAK near Toyohara.

Combined Fleet

Shokaku and Zuikaku, fully upgraded and sporting Judys, arrive at Truk. Akagi, Kaga and a CVL will head home for their upgrade cycle next. Jills are officially in production but it will take them a while to ramp up.

Burma

The Allies sweep and bomb 17th Army SW of Magwe. We sweep and bomb the airfield at Schwebo in return. Neither raid is particularly successful.

[Cribtop]

May 1, 1943

May of '43 and Japan still holds Tulagi, Tabiteuea, Darwin and Burma. In fact we are currently counter-attacking in Oz and the Irrawaddy Plain. Not bad, IMHO. Today Japanese VPs exceed the 30K mark.

Subs

Gar duds on an xAKL near Toyohara. This sub is starting to be annoying.

SE Fleet

Namatanai makes forts 4.

Burma

We launch a big raid on Schwebo and catch the Hurris unprotected by CAP. We destroy 19 planes on the ground and damage 35. Banzai!

The Allies raid the airfield at Cox's Bazar. While we would love to get this base and Akyab up and running, for now every time CF bombs them he is ignoring our advancing armies in Burma, so we will let this happen for now.

Uttaradit goes to airfield 4.

Logistics

We have decided to use the "Fusan pull" for another week or two to build a reserve of fuel in the Home Islands. Then we will switch back to hauling it from Hong Kong in order to minimize spoilage. This trick will come in handy later in the war.

[Cribtop]

May 2, 1943

Subs

Escorts harass Gar near Toyohara. Time to deal with this threat. Gudgeon duds on a hunter SC near Ominato.

5th Fleet

B-26s raid Amchitka. All signs point to another move by the Allies up here. Combined Fleet is staying at Truk in case we get a good opportunity to intervene.

Southern Army

Our forces SA across the river near Derby and force the Aussie 3rd Division to retreat a second time. Odds are 17:1, casualties 1969(120) vs 428(0). We will rest one day to clear DIS and then push on to Broome, hoping for a big Allied surrender. Supply ships have made good use of the captured port at Derby and all our troops are in the white on this front.

Burma

Air battles galore. They go well, but could have been much better.

The IJAAF hits enemy forces struggling toward Magwe for 404(10) losses. The targeted forces have been retreated multiple times and must be in frightful shape.

The enemy 2Es attack 17th Army but find LRCAP that does a decent job. Weather kept the CAP from its full potential, but losses are still 9:3 in our favor. Our pilot quality versus the English flyers really shows up here, as the Tojos usually win individual engagements even when bounced.

In a major disappointment, two unescorted 4E raids on Ramree Island find 36 crack
Tojos on CAP. Unfortunately, for some reason the combats only go a round or two and end almost immediately, allowing the raids to effectively bypass our planes. I will make sure we have radar there but I think we do.

[Cribtop]

May 3, 1943

Subs

I-34 misses a DD near Perth but evades the inevitable hail of depth charges.

K-XIV misses an E in a big tanker convoy near Hong Kong. We DC the sub for many rounds and land a penetrating hit. Loving the improved DC launchers.

IJN troop convoy escorts chase off Truant near Groot Natoena. The convoy is bringing base forces and AA units to bolster defenses on Sumatra and in Burma.

5th Fleet

USN DDs raid Amchitka and destroy a mini sub there. The drumbeat continues up here. Is it a feint? It wasn't last time.

SE Fleet

Guam makes forts 3.

Southern Army

Boela makes forts 3.

[Cribtop]

May 4, 1943

Subs

Enemy DDs attack I-34 near Fiji and land a penetrating hit.

Despite a lot of attention, Gar stubbornly stays put near Toyohara and torpedoes an xAK. The ship may survive.

5th Fleet

Kushiro goes to forts 4.

Burma

17th and 18th Armies unite 1 hex SW of Magwe. They will immediately march on the base with 8 crack infantry divisions, artillery and heavy air support.

One hex NW of Magwe, our three armored divisions also come together (a day earlier than expected). A few survivors of the enemy's Arakan forces are still in the hex. We will try for a DA tomorrow if they don't reach the safety of Magwe.

These occurrences create a grave danger to the main Allied army in Burma. If Magwe falls we will have Meiktila almost completely surrounded in just a few days' time. If he splits his forces to defend both bases, we will defeat him in detail. If he turtles at Meiktila, he will be isolated as our armor will grab an almost ungarrisoned Mandalay and cut his LoC. CF should abandon the plains by rail immediately, or at least fall back to Mandalay asap, but we hope he doesn't. I'll post a screenshot later to show the current situation.

In the air, the Allies raid our garrison at Cox's Bazar. He has also pulled his fighters out of Schwebo.

[Cribtop]

Operation Scorpion, May 5, 1943



Red Numbers:

1 = 17th & 18th Armies marching on Magwe. ETA tomorrow. The body of the Scorpion.

2 = 3 IJA armored divisions driving East toward Mandalay. The Scorpion's stinger. This image is taken after the next replay, which I will report on soon, so their hex is now cleared of enemy forces.

3 = Various IJA units, which appear to be in positions to defend against another British thrust from Lashio. Actually positioned to close off any escape to the East out of Meiktila. The Scorpion's claws.

Green Numbers:

1 = Main enemy force at Meiktila. 10 LCUS. There is a secondary enemy force at Magwe. 14 LCUs, but most have already been retreated. Evidence of enemy withdrawal toward Meiktila.

2 = Two UK divisions are the only enemy reserves. One is at Lashio.

3 = The other has marched into the Chinese mountains and is thus functionally out of the fight.

Bottom line: IMHO CF's only move is to immediately withdraw to Schwebo or even Katha. If he sticks around, he will end up isolated and out of supply at Meiktila. If we destroy or even maul these forces, the Commonwealth Army will be out of the war for months to come, if not for the duration.