A Lemon rises in the East: SqzMyLemon (J) vs. JocMeister (A)

[SqzMyLemon]

Sept. 23/42:

China:

I've surrounded the Chinese units N.E. of Ichang. The enemy appears to be moving to the northwest into a Japanese controlled hex. If I can close the hex side behind them that will result in another 12 Chinese units completely isolated.

Chinese units appear to be withdrawing from Chihkiang. I have two divisions blocking the route to Kweiyang and two divisions trying to block any road movement to the northeast of the base. I've already established a bridgehead on the west side of the river along the Chungking to Patung road. I need to divert troops from Kweiyang to help try and trap another 12-18 enemy LCU's around Chihkiang. The low stacking limits along the route to Kunming means I can reduce the amount of divisions for this offensive. There's no point tying up five divisions when two of them are enough to grind away at Chinese forces and push on Kunming.

Chinese forces blocking the road to Kienko are weakening and may be forced to retreat in a matter of weeks. Same goes for the enemy forces blocking the route to Sining. The isolated Chinese forces near Nanchang are also beginning to fold, with 50-80 squads being destroyed every deliberate attack. My divisions are pretty beat up, but they will recover in time or be bought out for duty in the Pacific.

I will provide a screenshot of China after the next turn to clearly show the current situation.

R&D:

Ki-44-IIb Tojo advances to 2/43 while the Ha-45 engine advances to 3/43.

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ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

True to form, Peyton Manning has a record night and I have him and Demaryius Thomas on the bench!

Yeeouch! Who was your 'better' QB? Man, if you have a team that can keep those guys on the bench this won't bother you much over the course of a season.

I signed up for the matrix pro league that uses a full defensive team by the player, and has so many extra stats it's making my head swim. Fun though!

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Yeeouch! Who was your 'better' QB? Man, if you have a team that can keep those guys on the bench this won't bother you much over the course of a season.

Hi Erik,

It's a salary cap pool and quite difficult. I've played it for years and the best I've ever finished was 6th in my league of 25. You get a starting roster of 20 players and a taxi/bench squad of 10 players and have to stay under a $30,000,000 cap (not real salary, it's determined by stats from last year). This means a team can have some of the same players as other teams, but depending on who the owner has chosen they all differ in some way. So P. Manning and D. Thomas were benched for cap reasons. I caught a break though, the league said players from the Baltimore/Denver game could still be added as the deadline for rosters was Sept. 8th. So I did a little juggling and got both in under the cap. I currently sit 2/25 for the week, though that will change after tonight's results. Still a good start for me.

[SqzMyLemon]

Sept. 24/42:

Still grinding away in China, but making progress. I screwed up though. I was about to launch a river assault from Kweiyang to the northwest, but over stacked the hex. Big mistake as that burned up all the supply in the hex and I just happened to catch that all my units about to cross were in the red at 0 supply. It would have gone badly. I have to delay while I clear out the base and await supply levels to recover. I hope to attack within a week. The positive is I can bomb the defenders for another 5-6 days prior.

Indian Ocean:

An Allied TF of six ships listed as AMC's is spotted northwest of Trinkat! Are the Allies trying to pull another Makin type operation? This time I can react. I have a couple of DD's that can make a full speed run and two PB's escorting some merchants that can be split off to disrupt the approach. I have an Air Flotilla HQ within range and can re-deploy some Nell's and Zero's to strike next turn. I can also send a SCTF from Singapore that can arrive in two days. I still don't have everything set up yet and this is bad timing for me, but I'm not caught completely out of position as I was at Makin. I should be able to cause trouble this time before things get out of hand.

Thoughts:

KB stays put. I still expect another Allied operation in the Central or Southeast Pacific any time. LBA and surface forces will have to deal with the IO. I do have a division at Sabang that could be used to counter any Allied lodgment in the Andamans.

[SqzMyLemon]

Sept. 25/42:

Indian Ocean:

The TF spotted the previous day and described as six AMC's was actually a Commonwealth cruiser force. No Japanese surface forces were able to make an intercept. LBA did make a sortie, but unfortunately only 12 Nell's located and attacked the enemy force while eight aborted due to weather. Results were disappointing with only one enemy CL torpedoed.

Thoughts:

I really don't understand why my forces tend to underperform when I play Japan. I ran into issues in my last PBEM and they don't seem to have improved. I don't expect every bomb or torpedo to hit, but here was a force of CL's with no air cover and the best I could do was one hit. Just once I'd like to experience a devastating attack where my opponent pays a far heavier price for sticking their nose out.

In both my PBEM's as Japan the Pearl Harbor raids were subpar and in this one not a single BB or CA/CL was sunk. Whenever KB has been engaged it's performed poorly and LBA generally performs the same. I'm still waiting for a combat report that makes me go wow, that was a great turn.

[SqzMyLemon]

Turns are running slow again, Jocke's out with the flu this time around. I'll try and post a few screens tonight since there's no turn.

I need to figure out just what these Allied CL's are doing in the IO. It seems strange to be using these ships as a probe and risking their loss. Perhaps they are bait.

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ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Sept. 25/42:

Indian Ocean:

The TF spotted the previous day and described as six AMC's was actually a Commonwealth cruiser force. No Japanese surface forces were able to make an intercept. LBA did make a sortie, but unfortunately only 12 Nell's located and attacked the enemy force while eight aborted due to weather. Results were disappointing with only one enemy CL torpedoed.

Thoughts:

I really don't understand why my forces tend to underperform when I play Japan. I ran into issues in my last PBEM and they don't seem to have improved. I don't expect every bomb or torpedo to hit, but here was a force of CL's with no air cover and the best I could do was one hit. Just once I'd like to experience a devastating attack where my opponent pays a far heavier price for sticking their nose out.

In both my PBEM's as Japan the Pearl Harbor raids were subpar and in this one not a single BB or CA/CL was sunk. Whenever KB has been engaged it's performed poorly and LBA generally performs the same. I'm still waiting for a combat report that makes me go wow, that was a great turn.

You'll get it Joseph! Don't worry, it'll happen.

I've found that at distance it's tough to get a big strike with the 2E IJN bombers. Against cruisers and destroyers I usually get few hits with these as the planes are less maneuverable and the ships fast and full of flak. Single engine TBs do better and DBs the best. Just wait until you have the Grace! Wow! Easily the best strike plane for either side.

You hit one. That's good. The real question is 'what is he doing out there and putting his stuff at risk?' No air cover? Hmmmm.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: obvert

You hit one. That's good. The real question is 'what is he doing out there and putting his stuff at risk?' No air cover? Hmmmm.

I'm thinking bait for a CV ambush, or an attempt to duplicate his earlier SCTF raid around Iwo Jima. I've been running a number of small amphibious TF's in the Andaman Islands as I reinforce the theatre. I thought he'd withdraw after being spotted, but his ships appear to have stayed in the same location. Either he was expecting no resistance, waiting to get a sighting before he struck, probing prior to a move or simply baiting me.

There is definitely a risk of American CV's appearing, they've had plenty of time to re-deploy to the IO. I can't afford an early lodgment in this theatre, so if there's an amphibious operation in the works KB will have to respond.

As to the Nell's, it was only a seven hex strike and weather was overcast. In a non-AAR game against my long time opponent my Japanese LBA had performed great. It seems in the games I document as AAR's, I just can't replicate the results despite applying the same tactics and preparations.

I'm going to say it. I feel luck has more to do with this game than many will acknowledge. Sacrilege I know!

[Richard III]

Second try at this, timed out twice before.[:(]

First , very interesting & educational AAR that deserves more traffic I think..

It`s easy to ascribe all sorts of evil stuff to those sneaky Allies, but it could be:
A: A mission orders destination error.
B: An allied SAG interception based on his recon ( does he have any around there ?)
C: A CAP trap and his CV`s fighters lurking back there didn`t launch for whatever.

If his CV`s are around I think setting your anti-shipping Nell`s /Betties at range 14 and basing some Zero`s at the base with Drop tanks, which give them a 14 range escort is worthwhile. Others are more Bold with the range settings, but I hate surprises.

Hard to contribute without a Map..[;)]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Sept. 25/42:

Indian Ocean:

The TF spotted the previous day and described as six AMC's was actually a Commonwealth cruiser force. No Japanese surface forces were able to make an intercept. LBA did make a sortie, but unfortunately only 12 Nell's located and attacked the enemy force while eight aborted due to weather. Results were disappointing with only one enemy CL torpedoed.

Thoughts:

I really don't understand why my forces tend to underperform when I play Japan. I ran into issues in my last PBEM and they don't seem to have improved. I don't expect every bomb or torpedo to hit, but here was a force of CL's with no air cover and the best I could do was one hit. Just once I'd like to experience a devastating attack where my opponent pays a far heavier price for sticking their nose out.

In both my PBEM's as Japan the Pearl Harbor raids were subpar and in this one not a single BB or CA/CL was sunk. Whenever KB has been engaged it's performed poorly and LBA generally performs the same. I'm still waiting for a combat report that makes me go wow, that was a great turn.

[SqzMyLemon]

Here's the Indian Ocean situation showing where the Allied CL's were hit. I was mistaken with the range, it was only six hexes and not seven as previously stated. The Nell's were based at Great Nicobar. I've a strong SCTF heading to Sabang to await developments before committing. I believe the enemy force will withdraw. If not, I'll act under the assumption that it is a trap to draw me out.

[SqzMyLemon]

Here is China.

The yellow circles indicate Chinese units either isolated or threatened with isolation. These total 41 LCU's.

The red circle around Kweiyang indicates where I narrowly avoiding attempting a river crossing with no supply. The intended direction of the advance was to the northwest. I'm withdrawing enough units to meet the stacking requirements and as soon as enough supply is on hand the river assault will go as planned. Chinese units are far easier to rout in anything less than 3x terrain and this hex is only 2x.

The solid red circles indicated where I'd like to move units to block the escape of the Chinese forces around Chihkiang.

China is a grind, but I am weakening Chinese forces daily. I have to think it's only a matter of time till I break into the Central Plains and wreak havoc.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Richard III

First , very interesting & educational AAR that deserves more traffic I think..

Thanks, you are being kind. Perhaps when/if Jocke decides to resume his dual AAR and the game picks up pace I'll be inspired to more of an effort. I will try to provide more information on the how's and why's of my actions so others may get a better understanding of my approach to the Japanese which is constantly evolving it seems.

[Lokasenna]

That's how China should look [:)].

[obvert]

Well, his cruisers are right within bombardment range of Great Nicobar. Does he know this is a major air base? If so, it could be toast.

Check HQ commander to make sure his stats are good. Check group commanders and the other relevant stuff for the Nettie group. What size is the field?

There is a huge amount of luck, and the more preparation you do, the more you're able to beat the luck. How far is your normal search range out there? I keep mine to max normal range of 21 hexes for the G3M3 in the IO when nothing is sighted, and generally they'll at least see that something is coming long before it's in strike range. That way I can bring in more to the party. [:)]

[fcharton]

China looks good, and the advance in the south is very promising. As you progress west (north mapwise) of Kweiyang and Chihkiang, keep in mind that rough terrain is good tank country...

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: fcharton

China looks good, and the advance in the south is very promising. As you progress west (north mapwise) of Kweiyang and Chihkiang, keep in mind that rough terrain is good tank country...

I made the mistake of deploying too many armoured units for the drive on Kienko. I'll begin shifting them back to more tank friendly terrain next turn. It seems Jocke is reinforcing the Chinese force that was beginning to crumble blocking the road to Kienko. If reinforced, it will definitely prevent a breakthrough so the armour units are better deployed elsewhere.

Stacking limits definitely slows things down, but I'm not going hell bent to knock China out. The rate at which I'm advancing just feels right.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Well, his cruisers are right within bombardment range of Great Nicobar. Does he know this is a major air base? If so, it could be toast.

Check HQ commander to make sure his stats are good. Check group commanders and the other relevant stuff for the Nettie group. What size is the field?

There is a huge amount of luck, and the more preparation you do, the more you're able to beat the luck. How far is your normal search range out there? I keep mine to max normal range of 21 hexes for the G3M3 in the IO when nothing is sighted, and generally they'll at least see that something is coming long before it's in strike range. That way I can bring in more to the party. [:)]

Meh, it's all part of the plan Erik. [:D]

Great Nicobar is only a size two airbase so that most likely results in fewer planes for operations. I do have plenty of support and supply though. This is the first time Allied units have ventured this close to the Andamans the entire game, so he shouldn't have any idea on the strength of my defences. If he whacks it, good on him. I lose a few planes, but I really show him nothing of my real defensive preparations.

I want to present a rather weak and apparently sloppy defence to Jocke in order to hopefully set up a knockout blow if he gets overconfident and just rushes in. If I do as you suggest, the jig would be up and I may show my hand against something less than a major amphibious operation. Right now I stick to the plan of strengthening my defences and just sparring on the perimetre. I don't want him to get a whiff of my defensive strategy at this time.

I also just want to explain my recent comments about luck. I agree, preparation goes a long way to improving the odds that something will go right, but I also have learned first hand that it doesn't either. What I mean is you can do everything right and still not catch a break. As Francois often mentions, some chance roll, failed check or weather can unhinge the best laid plans and you are left wondering what happened and why. I'm not saying this shouldn't be a part of the game as it represent human fallibility. In all the years I've played now, I think I have a pretty good understanding of what is required to give myself a shot at success, but that doesn't mean something that you have no control over once the turn is running, those rolls that determine any number of crucial components of a succesful operation, will ever go your way. Hence why I strongly believe in luck. The design of the game is to allow something to go wrong and sometimes it tends to go wrong more often than right...to me that's chance. If you don't prepare, yes, you need to lower your expectations, but if you do prepare and optimize your forces and still don't get solid results...is that your fault?

In my last PBEM against Smeulders, when I had any number of enemy TF's dead to rights at Lunga against a full KB, excellent DL's and all the I's dotted and T's crossed what happened? KB launched strikes against PT Boats at Ndeni! [8|]

Ever since that moment, the way I view what can happen in this game changed dramatically. You can only do so much and there is no guarantee that anything you do really matters when there's always the chance the AI will do something stupid or some die roll fail. To me that is luck, pure and simple. Others will disagree and I'm cool with that, but I believe in chance (luck) and sometimes you just don't have any.

[obvert]

All I can say Joseph is that there are players out there who virtually never complain about the game system. At all. Most of them are generally viewed as top players with a history of strong results.

I am not one of them, so I hear you loud and clear. Plus I like bitching occasionally, it is therapeutic. [:)]

I am learning and want to continue learning. I also think though that creative thinking and trial and error testing go a lot farther for me practically.

As for your 2E Netties flying from a level 2 base, you're lucky they flew at all! [:D]

If you don't want to strike or search deeply then why not have Kates there? They would suffer no penalties and probably have better results as well.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: obvert

All I can say Joseph is that there are players out there who virtually never complain about the game system. At all. Most of them are generally viewed as top players with a history of strong results.

I bet you they do, they just don't post about. [:D]

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ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: obvert

All I can say Joseph is that there are players out there who virtually never complain about the game system. At all. Most of them are generally viewed as top players with a history of strong results.

I bet you they do, they just don't post about. [:D]

That may be true!! I wish I could hold back. it would save me some grief, as with my recent thread, but sometimes the impatient part of human nature takes over![:)]