ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
1) Have you run the numbers on expanding LI in China so that it is self-sufficient on supply? Obviously this depends on how many units you have based here (and I doubt you can be self-sufficient for the massive land and air campaigns required to conquer the place). But is it worth the supply expenditure? What about simply expanding to match Resource production? 1100 days just to break even on the expenditure is...well, you know.
1a)Why not expanding HI in China instead? For 1100 supply to increase, you'll get 2 supply per day plus HI. Yes, it uses Fuel with Resources, but if you're taking advantage of the Magic Coast Road, then you'll suffer less spoilage from transport by having the Fuel stop in Hong Kong, Canton, Shanghai, etc. for production rather than making the trek all the way around to Fusan. Maybe this is something I'll run the numbers on... (Does anybody know where I can find out exactly how much fuel is lost as it travels from Point A to Point B?)
2) What have your merchant losses been like in this game? In my own Scen 1 game, I halted all merchant production except for the non-maru CVEs. It's quite the saver, but it's not as much as I would like...
My reasoning is this. Fuel and oil are finite, no matter what you do as Japan you can't produce more than what is on the map. So, expanding HI uses more fuel. That's less fuel for the Home Islands and for fleet use. I think expanding LI in China makes sense. You won't have to import supply, you have a surplus of resources and theorectically it will be your longest held LI on the map besides Japan.
If I play a defensive war and don't over expand there is no need to provide large amounts of supply to support ground forces on guano infested islands throughout the Pacific. I can also use more for fortress level defences. Supply not being used can be invested instead on increasing my supply generating capacity for the end game when fuel and oil are gone.
I've bounced some numbers around and I like what I see. I get the 1100 day thing, but that's to recoup all supply expended. After the first year you've recovered 1/3, year two 2/3 and year three all of it, so that's late 44 early 45. By that time I've increased Japan's supply producing capacity by 10-15% and it requires absolutely no fuel to do so. What's the fuel/oil situation going to be at that stage? How much HI will be shut down due to no fuel, how much supply is no longer being generated? Investing in LI is a long term commitment. It fits with my play style and frankly I've not seen anyone try it. I totally respect the views of players like Pax, Mike Solli and nygiants59 that always caution against this. I still have to try it. Perhaps I'll fire up an AI game and see what happens to discover what kind of numbers I can generate.
I like the idea that when Magwe's and Rangoon's production facilities are destroyed I can still produce the same amount of supply using resources only. I also think I can generate as much supply from LI sources by not expanding HI and increasing my fuel use. Has anyone ever calculated how much more fuel is consumed over 4 years by substantial HI expansion? Fuel that might have been used to conduct much more robust fleet operations that could delay an Allied advance, or transported directly to Japan so the stockpile is as high as it can be for the endgame, lessening the pressure to hold onto far flung production facilities?
I guess if there is one thing I've learned about playing Japan, is that it's all about compromise. If you want more of one thing, you must give up something in return. If I want more fuel for fleet use, I must reduce my HI consumption of it. If I reduce my HI potential by not expanding to conserve fuel, I must pool more HI by giving up merchant and naval construction, build fewer aircraft or maximize powerplant use by producing only single engine aircraft...etc. I really think it comes down to your overall strategy and how you want to play the endgame. Myself, I want supply and HI so I can keep an army supplied, an air force flying and my production ability functioning as long as possible. I won't need much of a navy or fuel at that point. Aircraft and LCU's require an awful amount of supply to function properly so increasing supply without using up even more fuel to do so makes sense, to me at least.
I'm just bouncing ideas. Since every Allied player knows fuel is the Achilles Heel of Japan, does it not make sense to try a new approach? Fuel and oil will run out, it always does. What if you were able to conduct your economy in such a way as to maximize your pools for the end game, when fuel and oil are no longer available, yet you have the needed supply and HI to fight it out until the bitter end?
