Decline & Fall AAR

[composer99]

The Chinese decided not to scrap any naval units, largely because it won't be building any.

They also decided not to scrap any land units, as a matter of general principle. Maybe they could get away with it in a 1944 game, but considering in the real war the Japanese were still launching land offensives in 1944, best to have the ability to build as big an army as possible.

[composer99]

China Set Up Notes & Overall Strategy - Part 1

In order to set Chinese forces up, I need to have an idea of the general Chinese strategy.

To do that, I need to think about the advantages and disadvantages of the situation on the map.

The advantages are:
(1) Lower Japanese unit density, meaning a smaller army opposing China.

(2) Japanese attention is split between fending off the US in the Pacific, the CW in Burma (and at sea to a lesser extent), and worrying about a Soviet attack. All of that, plus holding on to their gains in China.

(3) China begins the 1944 scenario with its map control almost identical to the 1939 scenario. This means its forces begin much further advanced, and its industrial base is at this point largely safe from Japanese attack.

(4) China can afford land unit losses, as long as they are not excessive (e.g. too many 3/1 results will hurt). Japan, on the other hand, cannot.

(5) Except for units on the coast, Japanese units can't count on being in supply (and they could be in trouble even then, depending on the success of US Navy operations...). Japanese units that get enveloped and disorganized are dead meat.


The disadvantages are:
(1) The Japanese set up after China, meaning they are in a good position to counter Chinese efforts if they put in the work and can spare the units.

(2) The Chinese have 1 oil point and, at this stage, difficulty accessing more. This means unless the Chinese can open up a lending route to oil (or get another Ally to do the work for them) their offensive sputters out after one turn.

(3) They start with a small air force. Between this and the oil problem it makes running an offensive campaign difficult.

(4) I am using the attack weakness option for the Nationalist Chinese, meaning that in general they attack with half their normal combat strength.

[composer99]

China Set Up Notes & Overall Strategy - Part 2

Time to think about overall strategy.

To make things a bit easier, and given the oil problem as discussed above, China's strategy will be divided into phases.

Phase I: Secure Lending Routes & Consolidate
Due to the terrain in Burma, the Japanese Navy blocking the South China Sea (to say nothing of Japanese control of China's ports and of Indochina), and the vast Japanese-controlled expanse of Manchuria, yet to be secured by the USSR, the Chinese have no effective lending route, especially for oil.

To get the oil they need to use their shiny toys, the Chinese need either Burma to be liberated, or to secure a port, preferably on the South China Sea, and preferably with rail or road access to Chinese cities. Alternatively, if the USSR can be convinced to attack Manchuria, a Chinese effort to open up the rail lines between China and Manchuria can open up that route.

To that end, China's strategy in Phase I will be as follows:
- delegate liberating Burma to the Indian Army (which, it so happens, is up to 4 times the size of the Japanese force in Burma, depending on how aggressively the CW sets it up)
- delegate conquering Manchuria to the Red Army
- constitute a credible threat to Hanoi and Canton, forcing the Japanese to commit heavily to their defence (at least 2 units) - this has the added advantage of helping the US as Indochina setup draws units from Japan's general Asia/Pacific set up pool, reducing the land units available to garrison, say, the Philippines, or Truk.
- in the centre, ooze around Japanese forward positions, and attack if sufficient advantage presents itself, with a view to presenting a credible threat to Shanghai, again forcing a heavy Japanese commitment to its defence (all the more so since it is an objective)
- in the north, the Communists will perform a similar manoeuvres to cut off resources and push towards the Manchurian frontier
- build up, especially the air force
- if losses are sufficiently light and resource/build point lending, once available, generous, build an offensive chit

I expect Phase I will last all of 1944.

Phase II: Attack
Once China has reliable access to a sufficient quantity of oil to reorganize its forces regularly, and a large enough air force to pound multiple Japanese positions while absorbing losses, it is time to attack.

China's strategy in Phase II will be as follows:
- aggressively encircle and destroy any Japanese force that dares to take a stand inland
- cut off Japanese resources in and around China
- attack and take Canton, to reduce Japan's naval/air utility in the South China Sea
- attack and take Shanghai, to get the objective

I expect Phase II will take all of 1945.

[composer99]

China Set Up Notes & Overall Strategy - Part 3

Burma Unit
The Chinese unit scheduled to set up in Burma will just have to dash back to China. It can probably help fight in Phase II.

Southern Front
- A small "defence force" will sit between Hanoi and Kunming. This force will be ready to advance as required.
- An army group based around Nanning, whose job will be to threaten both Hanoi and Canton, possibly taking a potshot at either in Phase I (and getting serious about the job in Phase II).
- Another defensive force guarding the southern approaches to Hengyang (and hence Changsha).

Central Front
- An army group based in Changsha, large enough to split to get around the bad terrain in between Changsha, Nanchang, and Wuhan.
- This group will be the group to try to present a threat to Shanghai.

North Front
- An army group striking forth from Tungkwan to take Chengchow, then turn north and advance on Peking, in order to cut off two resources and (hopefully) open up the rail lines for lend lease.
- a diversion to secure Taiyuan, once the former is underway.

[composer99]

Anyway, you'll have to wait until tomorrow to see my planned set up. 'Tis bedtime.

[Neilster]

Thanks Composer99. I look forward to reading your informative and well written posts. As you have stated, this is an interesting and little visited part of the game. Hopefully with MWiF doing a lot of the heavy lifting, that will be less so in future.

The counter densities are much higher at this stage of the war. It can be tiresome to keep up with all the record-keeping in cardboard WiF. MWiF relieves the player of that. The oil rule is an excellent example of a rule that adds a lot of realism but is a pain to use in the boardgame. In MWiF it is a doddle to use (but tough on the Axis).

This scenario is also excellent for testing an Axis player's defence. The Soviet hordes, endless American equipment, getting hammered by strategic bombers, swarms of carrier fighters...it's all coming at you. That said, as the Axis you still control significant resources and are operating on interior lines.

Cheers, Neilster

[composer99]

Let me tell you, not having to sort through an enormous pile of counters, or their PBEM-module equivalents (e.g. when using Cyberboard) is a huge time-saver.

[composer99]

With regards to the counter density, one thing I find very striking is how few air units there are in this scenario.

Japan, for example, begins this scenario with 5 fighter units on the map, 3 in reserves, and 1 in production. That's 3 times as many as Japan begins the 1939 scenario with (2 on map, 1 in reserves).

Germany, for example, begins this scenario with 2 fighter units on the Eastern Front - as against 6, maybe 7 USSR fighter units. Indeed, Germany has 19 fighter units total on the map, in production, and in reserves, as against 8 at the start of the 1939 campaign.

The Allied air forces, in particular, seem paltry compared to what you would get building up from a 1939 game.

Of course, the reason for this is because the air unit availability in this scenario is based on the force pools available to major powers playing "Classic" table-top WiF, which does not include all the extra planes from the Planes in Flames expansion kit. (Planes in Flames, however, is an integral part of MWiF rather than an optional rule.)

What I expect would normally happen in a Decline & Fall scenario, if you were playing Classic WiF, is that you would very quickly empty out what was left of your air unit force pools, then replace land unit losses as required and buy o-chits.

I suspect I'll be gearing up the aircraft factories, though.

[Neilster]

ORIGINAL: composer99

With regards to the counter density, one thing I find very striking is how few air units there are in this scenario.

Japan, for example, begins this scenario with 5 fighter units on the map, 3 in reserves, and 1 in production. That's 3 times as many as Japan begins the 1939 scenario with (2 on map, 1 in reserves).

Germany, for example, begins this scenario with 2 fighter units on the Eastern Front - as against 6, maybe 7 USSR fighter units. Indeed, Germany has 19 fighter units total on the map, in production, and in reserves, as against 8 at the start of the 1939 campaign.

The Allied air forces, in particular, seem paltry compared to what you would get building up from a 1939 game.

Of course, the reason for this is because the air unit availability in this scenario is based on the force pools available to major powers playing "Classic" table-top WiF, which does not include all the extra planes from the Planes in Flames expansion kit. (Planes in Flames, however, is an integral part of MWiF rather than an optional rule.)

What I expect would normally happen in a Decline & Fall scenario, if you were playing Classic WiF, is that you would very quickly empty out what was left of your air unit force pools, then replace land unit losses as required and buy o-chits.

I suspect I'll be gearing up the aircraft factories, though.

From memory, the Wallies had about 15,000 aircraft in England before D-Day, though. That should still be a lot of counters. Where are they?

Cheers, Neilster

[composer99]

Well, RAW §1.2 defines air units thusly:

An aircraft unit represents 250 aircraft in 1939 gradually increasing to 500 aircraft by 1945.

Assuming a smooth progression by year, an air unit in 1944 represents approximately 450-460 aircraft, so if the Allies put every single eligible air unit into the UK (including those designated for Europe generally or even any map) they can just about reach that amount.

So overall the Allies seem short on air units. (This might be a game balance thing, as if the Germans have anything close to their historical amount of aircraft, they would be very badly outnumbered - as it is if the Allies max out their air unit commitment vs Germany they end up with 51 on-map units vs. 19 for the Germans - a 2.7:1 advantage. This advantage is further magnified by the way German airpower is spread out, whereas the Allies can concentrate their forces after seeing the German setup.)

[composer99]

Anyway, I'll get more into that when I go through Germany's setup and the Allied setup.

For the record, the order of setup for Decline & Fall is:
1. China
2. Japan
3. Germany
4. France
5. USSR
6. Commonwealth
7. USA

(Italy is out of the game.)

What this actually amounts to is the following setup order:
1. China
2. Axis
3. Allies (other than China)

So China has to set up, telegraphing its intent to Japan, who, if they have the units and actions to spare, can stymie them more effectively.

But the Axis sets up before all the rest of the Allies, giving them a chance to set up such that they can defeat Axis forces piecemeal and in detail.

[composer99]

As a further note, if anyone has any questions about anything regarding this scenario, the rules, etc. please feel free to ask.

Chances are, if it's anything to do with playing WiF, the rules, and WiF theorycraft, I can give a solid answer.

I would be sketchier on answering questions about the MWiF UI and how things will play out on the revised Asia-Pacific map scale, but will give it the old college try.

(I've only just finished China's set up, but won't be able to post it 'till this evening, so I can't answer questions about setting up the other powers or playing this scenario just yet.)

[composer99]

Oh crap I just realized I left 'Construction Engineers' selected in my Decline & Fall game.

Given my dislike for that rule borders on loathing that probably forces a "re-set" of the game.

Fortunately it changes only one screenshot posted so far. I might have to re-do China's set up, but whatever. It won't change the Chinese strategy or how the set up will work.

If you're curious what the rule does, here's the text from table-top WiF RAW:

Construction Engineers
You can only use an occupied or conquered red factory, after the first production step that you had an ENG unit (even face-down) in that factory hex.
Any major port you occupy or conquer is only a minor port until repaired. It is repaired after the first production step that you had an ENG unit (even face-down) in that port hex.

So your engineer units end up having to spend production steps sitting in ports and factories, which IMO is a tremendous waste of a unit (in addition to being out of line, again IMO, with other similar rules for repairing destroyed factories/oil resources and the like).

[composer99]

Before moving on with China I would like to quickly take stock of the global situation.

Here is a world map showing political control as of the start of this scenario.

As you can see, the Axis still control substantial amounts of territory, but the Allies, particularly the USSR, are on the verge of breaking through the periphery and into the core.

[composer99]

Most importantly, here is the victory totals at the start of this scenario.

The Axis begins with 29 victory points, 14 points up ahead from their expected end-of-game total of 15 (10 for Germany, 5 for Japan).

So to end up with a tie, the Allies need to secure 1.75 objective hexes per turn, and secure objectives at a higher rate in order to win. For their part, the Axis need to find a way to hold on to what they have - and perhaps sneak an extra one or two - to eke out the win.

It's worth noting that the historical totals for the Axis are Germany 0, Italy 0, Japan 9. So if the Allies went for an historical approach they would crush Germany completely but barely press the attack against Japan's victory points.

[composer99]

An overview of China's set up.

You can see, tucked away at the far left side, the oil placed in Kashgar.

[composer99]

The northern spearheads, where the Communists are set up to drive on Peking. Or at least, tie up Japanese units trying to drive on Peking.

[composer99]

The southern sector. China has set up to advance on Nanking and Hanoi. Once the weather in the south turns in the fall, and there are more Chinese planes on the map, the Nationalists will consider an advance on Canton. Whether that is possible will likely depend on how much oil there is available.

[composer99]

China reviews its scrapping (note that this happens before set up).

The Chinese ultimately scrapped all their planes and no land or naval units.

(As an aside, the Communists had their own opportunity to scrap units, which they declined to do).

[composer99]

With China's set up done, on to move to Japan.