Decline & Fall AAR

[composer99]

The China Front

The China front is divided into three sectors: north, central, and south.

The South Sector

In the south sector, the Japanese are fighting the Nationalist Chinese.

In this sector, the Japanese objective is simple: slow down a Nationalist advance on Canton and Hong Kong for as long as possible, and, when the Nationalists do reach these cities, hold on to them for as long as possible.

These cities are, at least for now, key parts of the Japanese naval defence scheme: as navy bases they are in the rear, protected by distance from Allied air attack; yet their naval and air units can still quickly reach the sea boxes.

That said, because Canton and Hong Kong are not objective hexes, the Japanese are unlikely to make an effort to retake them once they are gone - unless Manila is already lost.

Here is a screenshot of the south.

(It should be noted that the Indochina sector, at least up near Hanoi, can probably just be regarded as an extension of this sector. The Japanese strategy is fairly similar: hold on to Hanoi as long as possible.)

You can see from the number of units in Canton that it is currently a fleet base. I have a "reserve" fleet of slow CV and BB units, whose primary mission is to react to lesser raids (e.g. no more than 1-2 CVs) of the enemy.

You can also see in Hong Kong the NAVs allocated to convoy defence.

[composer99]

Moving forward I'm going to review Japan's set up in a more or less circular form.

Indochina-Thailand-Burma

This sector is pretty sparse. The only Allied threat overland is the Indian army, which Japan expects will move slowly due to the Commonwealth's own sealift shortage.

As such, the units designated for Burma in Japan's set up have been placed for rapid redeployment to Bangkok (or at least the rail line). These forces will be designated for the defence of other sectors.

As soon as Japan can spare the forces it must place them in Saigon.

[composer99]

South China Sea

You can see Singapore on the left hand side. Singapore has a submarine and a land unit defence.

Right now the South China sea is set up with the low-box convoy defence (the high-box convoy defence to follow) and a single convoy point (for oil/supply purposes).

Japan will deploy other convoys closer to the end of the turn.

[composer99]

The Netherlands East Indies (NEI)

Japan has a land unit in Batavia and land units covering the ports into the South China Sea (so as to hold back a southern prong of the US line of advance).

This sector needs land units covering the oil, a bigger stack in Batavia, and airpower. Hard to say when Japan will get the forces needed to make that happen, though.

(Also, I played around with the placement a bit after taking this screenshot, and the Japanese have a sub in Makassar (the southern port on the right hand side).

[composer99]

The Philippines

Holding the Philippines is vital: if the Allies take Manila, in particular, they will have split the Japanese core into two. This would be an intolerable situation.

To that end, the Japanese have some air units in place to fly out, naval pickets, and land units on the important ports (including HQ Yamamoto in Manila).

(As an aside, those preferring that the game reflect that Yamamoto the individual is dead by the time of this scenario could change the name of the unit. HQ units are about so much more than the man (*) named on it.)

(*) The USSR partisan HQ is, I believe, the only HQ named after a woman.

[composer99]

The Forward Bases

These two are, unfortunately, left out to dry.

On the plus side, Truk is likely to be in bad weather, delaying the Allied attack until September/October, or even the winter. Even better, the US is likely to be paying more attention to the European theatre this turn.

Due to the shortage of lift and shipping, the Japanese simply cannot afford to keep these areas in supply. What Japan will do, as time, lift, and land units permit, is reinforce both hexes. A second unit in each hex will make a big difference in terms of what the Allies need to achieve in combat to take them.

[composer99]

The Marianas

The Marianas are largely devoid of Japanese forces. They do have some air units based in the Bonin islands. These air units are meant to keep the US fleet at bay, or at least check its advance, by providing a picket (and cover for the Japanese carrier fleet if it responds).

[composer99]

The China Sea

As with the South China Sea, the set up here is to allow supply/oil shipping, leaving the remainder in reserve for later in the turn.

You can also see Fukuoka and the adjacent city.

Fukuoka has the Japanese convoy and excess light carrier (CVL) fleet. These CVLs don't yet have carrier planes, due to the size of the carrier planes drawn during set up.

The city of Sasebo, adjacent to Fukuoka, has a fighter which will most likely be re-based to China or to fight as a picket at sea.

As time passes, the Japanese will either fill out the CVLs with carrier planes, or send the CVLs out on sacrificial "death rides" to serve as pickets in extremis.

[composer99]

The final screenshot of Japan's set up: Japan itself.

Tokyo has a land unit; the other land units are as shown, placed to provide invasion coverage in city-free areas.

Japan is not terribly worried about an Allied invasion this turn, due to the effort being made for Overlord. Japan also has air units to check the Allied advance (with one of the optional rules I'm playing with, units move slower when they move into sea areas known to have enemy forces).

Finally, Tokyo has Japan's fast fleet, which has its current collection of fast fleet carriers, battleships, and cruisers. This fleet is meant to sit in port as a fleet in being until it responds to an Allied sortie, or it gets chased away by prospective port attacks.

[composer99]

Japan Strategy

As I hope will be clear, Japan's strategy in the Pacific, against the US, is based on layering defences. The first defence is land-based air supported by/covering carrier fleets. The second defence is the land units in the hex the US wants to attack. If sealift availability and Allied forces permit, the third line of defence is a counter-strike.

The Japanese are using a standard form of convoy defence: a unit in a high box, in the 1 box, and the 0 box. This defence allows you to cycle units easily. They also have hefty naval bombers in reserve to cover against submarine attack. In a pinch (e.g stormy weather) the Japanese can send out slow battleships.

On land, Japanese objective hexes are to be redoubts, held to the last soldier for as long as possible. The fronts in Manchuria and Northern China will hold for as long as they can, and when it becomes clear they won't able to any further, withdraw to better positions. If conditions permit, the Japanese will deliver a counter attack.

Earlier I had mentioned not acquiring new sealift. I have since changed my mind, at least for TRS. Having some extra lift would make a big difference as far as shuttling units goes; and it could allow Japan to become less vulnerable to sudden changes in Allied focus. And even having this capacity only for a few turns at the end could make a big difference.

Japanese shipping is so parlous that Japan will begin producing new convoys at once. If Japan runs out of production and oil, it is in serious trouble. (Edit: this sentence was unintelligible at first - this is what you get for trying to write strategic summaries past midnight...)

Extra production will be rounded out by a mix of fighter (FTR), naval bomber (NAV), and carrier plane (CVP) squadrons, pilots, and the army.

Edit: Sealift is so sparse in this game that another key part of Japanese strategy is looking for a way to sink Allied lift. The Allies start with so little of it that sinking a sealift unit is practically worth as much in-game as an objective hex: a TRS or AMPH unit sunk early means that much less ability for the Allies to transfer units from the US to local theatres, or invade, or shuttle units around, for the rest of the game. That is huge.

Conversely, Japan can scarcely afford to take chances with its sealift - but because of the Allied naval superiority, it will probably have to...

[composer99]

I believe that finishes off Japan. Germany set up to come later.

[composer99]

Before discussing the German situation I will post an overview of the European theatre of operations.

[composer99]

Before proceeding, here's the overview map of political control again.



Germany Set Up Notes & Overall Strategy - Part I

As with Japan, Germany has five "big picture" factors to consider before thinking about individual fronts and sectors. These factors are time, objectives, oil, production, and units.

Time
Time is almost, but not quite, on Germany's side. The Allies are the ones on the clock. Germany can win if they can't organize their conquest quickly enough.

In order to run the clock out on the Allies, Germany has to make them waste impulses and turns.

Unlike Japan, Germany's enemies are strong enough on land that "speed bumps" are unlikely to be a viable delay tactic. Instead, Germany has to rely on "hero cities" or similar strongpoints that require a great deal of time to reduce, counter-attacks to check Allied advances and destroy materiél, bottling up beachheads, bad weather, and short turns.

Also unfortunately, at least during the first summer, the Allies will as a team be focused almost entirely on Germany: the USSR because, well, that's all it has to do, and the other Allies because of Operation Overlord (or something).

Objectives
Germany begins this scenario with 19 objectives. Germany ends the war, historically, with 0 objectives controlled. However, the game rules expect Japan to have 10 at the end of the scenario for a draw. (So Germany is expected to be a tough nut to crack).

Therefore, Germany's goal is to control 11 objectives at the end of the scenario. As such, Germany can afford to give up up to 8 objectives.

Unlike Japan, however, Germany can't really afford to simply leave one or two objectives "hanging" - although it may not have a choice for Oslo or Athens. Most of Germany's objectives are too close to its core. So Germany has to fight to keep its objective hexes.

German forces are also strong enough to consider counterattacks against Allied-controlled objectives, at least immediately after the Allies take them. Warsaw, Bucharest, Paris, and so on down the line: if the Allies take it, the Germans should try to get it back.

Oil
Germany begins the game with 5 oil resources on the map and 2 synthetic oil plants (which count as oil resources).

This allotment of oil should, with a bit of conservation and stockpiling, be sufficient. Unfortunately for Germany it can probably expect to lose 3 of these oil resources this summer, as they are located in Rumania and are probably the USSR's biggest target for the summer.

Germany's other oil resources are, of course, vulnerable to strategic air attack.

Therefore, Germany has to strongly defend the Ploesti oilfields from the Red Army, and maintain an active air defence against the Allied bombers - although with any luck the tactical exigencies of Overlord will keep the bombers away for a few turns.

The good news is that Germany only needs oil for 7 more turns: it doesn't matter if it can reorganize units at the end of July/August 1945 or not.

Production
Unlike Japan, German production is not vulnerable to attacks on convoy lines. Provided its territory doesn't shrink too quickly, Germany can expect to produce a respectable amount (say, 30+ build points) for the rest of the scenario.

Of course, that doesn't stack up well against the USSR and US juggernauts, but what can you do?

Units
The German Army is numerous and strong. Unfortunately, it's not quite numerous enough to cover every single front. It's strength relative to the Allies will also decline as it takes losses (and as the dreaded Red Army Guard Banner armies begin appearing on the map).

The German Navy is pretty much a non-entity, apart from the submarine forces, which will probably be sent on death rides in an effort to find and destroy Allied sealift - the sealift shortage is the Allies' greatest weakness in this scenario, and if the Axis can destroy some of it early they will buy some breathing room (except on the Eastern Front).

The Luftwaffe will be powerful but outnumbered, particularly as time goes by. As far as I can see, German combat aircraft are outnumbered 2:1. The Germans have to be careful because attrition is not in their favour.

Fronts to Consider
I won't get into detail on the fronts/sectors Germany has to examine, but I should like to summarize them here:

The most important front, the Eastern Front, can be divided into three regions: Finland, which is peripheral (largely), the central Baltic/Polish sector (the road to Berlin), and the Carpathian/Rumanian sector (where the Ploesti oilfields are).

The least important front is the Mediterranean Front, which can be divided into three regions: the Balkan Coast (which is peripheral), the Italian sector, and the French Mediterranean coast.

The front of medium import is the Western Front, which can be broken down into a number of sectors: Norway, Denmark, Low Countries, and France.

Of course, if these fronts collapse, then Germany then has to take into consideration another sector: the core (that is, Germany itself).

[composer99]

Working through the German set up in between laundry and watching 'Winnie the Pooh' over and over. All I have left to do is the set up vs. the USSR. It's frankly terrifying: I have to set up units such that one is adjacent to every Soviet hex in a line stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea. German player Composer99 is trying to find a way to set these units up to avoid giving Soviet player Composer99 any freebies.

Unfortunately, because some areas (like the Baltic States) are just too marginal to defend in strength, it's hard to see how that will happen.

Also, maybe it's just me wearing the German player hat, but there just aren't enough land units. You'll see more when I start posting screenshots.

[composer99]

Here is the German set up in the far north. This set up is meant to keep the resources flowing from Narvik, and out of Soviet hands in Petsamo.

[composer99]

This is the north-central part of the Eastern Front.

Here, units are set up to prevent an encirclement through the Baltic states and to provide a retreat path along the centre of the salient.



The ultimate objective is to get to the Neman river line. Or, if the main red Army thrust is here, to retire to the Vistula. Along the way, if necessary, the Ostheer will deliver a stinging counter-punch to keep the Russians honest.

[composer99]

The Ukraine sector.

Here again the forces present - which look kind of weak now that I reconsider them - are going to withdraw, either to the river line or to the mountains.

The line in Rumania is meant to hold the line.

[composer99]

A closer look at the Rumanian sector.

This is a strong set up, meant to hold the oil fields for (hopefully) the summer, then retire into the mountains and eventually into Hungary as required.

Unfortunately, the set up in the Ukraine may demand a weakening of this front. I have to think about it some more before clicking 'end phase'.

[composer99]

The southern Balkan sector.

Boots are thin on the ground here, so the defences are set up merely to get resources through to Germany. Basically, reinforcements have to come from Germany or from the withdrawal along the Eastern Front.



Athens needs a second unit because it is an objective.

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

Petsamo isn't a city, right? I suppose it's impossible to stop, but can't the Soviets take say, their ski div and just do an end run and sit on the road somewhere? If your guy is out of supply, he can't attack to dislodge the division, and that means you can't pry the guy off the road, so no resource.


I admit, I've never tried Decline and Fall, but if you're as desperate for bodies as I imagine the Germans must be, maybe it's better to just write the resource off as a loss and hold the guy near Helsinki, try to just ship him up into the main front somewhere?