The March to War

[Mad Russian]

The time line for the end of the Cold War.

Note that all events marked with an * are actual events. Events marked as (FPC) are events that have been edited to take the road to war by me.

After going through this list of actual events it's amazing that the world didn't go to war in the late 80's.

Good Hunting.

MR

[Mad Russian]

1987
18 March 1987: US performs nuclear test at Nevada Test Site. *

11 June 1987: Margaret Thatcher is 1st British PM in 160 years to win 3rd consecutive terms and the Conservative Party is reelected. *

7 December 1987: Party Secretary Gorbachev arrives in Washington for a 3 day summit conference on arms reduction. *

8 December 1987: President Reagan & Soviet General Secretary Gorbachev sign a treaty eliminating medium range nuclear missiles. *

17 December 1987: After 20 of leading the Communist Party in Czechoslovakia Gustav Husák resigns as the Communist Party Leader. The new leader, Milos Jakes urges the Soviet Union to promote Soviet style restructuring and democratization. *

23 December 1987: The Soviet Central Committee meets to discuss the latest developments. With the Western Nations seemingly only getting stronger and the Soviet Union's control of the Warsaw Pact satellite nations growing more tenuous it was decided that something must be done. Plans were to be immediately drawn up for an attack into Western Germany. (FPC)

[Mad Russian]

1988
22 February 1988: Syrian troops occupy West Beirut, ending 3 years of anarchy during which terrorists, mainly pro-Iranian Shiites, have kidnapped dozens of foreigners. *

6 March 1988: 3 IRA suspects were shot dead in Gibraltar by SAS officers. *

16 March 1988: US sends 3000 soldiers to Nicaragua's neighbor Honduras. *

16 March 1988: Iran says Iraq uses poison gas. *

22 March 1988: Congress overrides Reagan's veto of sweeping civil rights bill. *

29 March 1988: US Congress discontinues aid to Nicaraguan contras. *

7 April 1988: Russia announced it would withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. *

7 April 1988: US performs nuclear test at Nevada Test Site. *

9 Apr 1988: US imposes economic sanctions on Panama. *

14 Apr 1988: USSR, US, Pakistan & Afghanistan sign Afghanistan treaty. *

20 Apr 1988: US accuses Renamo of killing 100,000 Mozambiquians. *

4 May 1988: USSR performs nuclear test at Eastern Kazakh/Semipalitinsk USSR. *

7 May 1988: USSR performs nuclear test at Novaya Zemlya USSR. *

21 May 1988: US performs nuclear test at Nevada Test Site. *

27 May1988: US Senate ratified a treaty eliminating medium-range nuclear missiles. *

29 May 1988: President Zia ul-Haq fires government/disbands parliament in Pakistan. *

1 June 1988: Lebanon's prime minister Rashid Karami, 55, is assassinated. *

21 June 1988: Supreme Soviet meets to discuss the growing stress in the world political scene. (FPC)

[Mad Russian]

1988
3 July 1988: US Vincennes in Strait of Hormoez shoots Iran Airbus A300, kills 290. *

7 July 1988: US performs nuclear test at Nevada Test Site. *

22 July 1988: 500 US scientists pledge to boycott Pentagon germ-warfare research. *

30 July 1988: King Hussein dissolves Jordan's House of Representatives. *

8 August 1988: Angola, Cuba & South Africa sign cease fire treaty. *

11 August 1988: Al-Qaeda formed. *

17 August 1988: US performs nuclear test at Nevada Test Site. *

19 August 1988: Iran-Iraq begin a cease-fire in their 8-year-old war. *

30 August 1988: France performs nuclear test. *

6 September 1988: USSR performs underground nuclear test. *

8 September 1988: An Israeli army truck accidentally hits some Arab vans in the occupied Gaza Strip, killing four people; rumors spread that the accident was a deliberate retaliation for the murder of an Israeli salesman. *

9 September 1988: Militant young Palestinians begin throwing rocks at Israeli troops December 9, the troops shoot some protesters dead, and the violent intifada (Arabic for uprising) spreads throughout the occupied territories. *

14 September 1988: USSR performs nuclear test at Eastern Kazakh/Semipalitinsk USSR.*

18 September 1988: Coup in Haiti. *

26 September 1988: Polish communist party picks propaganda chief Rakowski as new PM. *

29 September 1988: China PR performs nuclear test at Lop Nor PRC. *

1 October 1988: - Mikhail Gorbachev became president of Soviet Union. *

12 -14 October 1988: Gorbachev convenes Supreme Soviet to discuss world situation. Supreme Soviet alarmed at the nuclear proliferation within the control of hostile nations. (FPC)

13 October 1988: US performs nuclear test at Nevada Test Site. *

18 October 1988: USSR performs nuclear test at Eastern Kazakh/Semipalitinsk USSR. *

25 October 1988: France performs nuclear test at Muruora Island. *

26 October 1988: USSR issues warning to world national community to reduce the number of nuclear testing. Calls for Nuclear Reduction and Control Meeting to be held in New Zealand. (FPC)

3 November 1988: Pakistan claims it downed Afghan warplane. *

4 November 1988: World political unrest is increasing. The Soviet call for a Nuclear Reduction and Control Meeting has been met with reserve by the rest of the world. (FPC)

12 November 1988: USSR performs nuclear test at Eastern Kazakh/Semipalitinsk USSR.*

13 November 1988: US, France, NATO and People's Republic of China all response with severe reaction to the Soviet nuclear testing. The ongoing nuclear Soviet testing must stop before any meetings of reduction and control will take place according to PRC leaders. (FPC)

30 November 1988: France performs nuclear test at Fangataufa Island. *

1 December 1988: Chinese minister of Foreign affairs Qian Qichen visits Moscow. *

1 December 1988: The Soviet Union responds to the French test with a firm warning that this situation is unacceptable. (FPC)

4 December 1988: USSR performs nuclear test at Novaya Zemlya USSR. *

4 December 1988: Amid world protests the Soviet Union states it's right to perform nuclear tests in conjunction with national defense in face of global nuclear testing. (FPC)

5 December 1988: Shuttle Atlantis launches world's 1st nuclear-war-fighting satellite. *

6 December 1988: President of Soviet Union Gorbachev calls an emergency meeting of the Supreme Soviet. The United States is deploying satellites that will limit the nuclear capabilities of the Soviet Union. He requests and is granted approval to reinstate the STAVKA. STAVKA is to meet officially after Gorbachev's return from his visit to the US.

7 December 1988: President Gorbachev arrives in NYC to address the United Nations. He announces a 10% unilateral reduction in Soviet troop levels. *

11 December 1988: STAVKA meets with President Gorbachev and the leaders of the Soviet Communist Party. They determine that the US lead factions of the world, including NATO countries are pushing the Soviet Union to a position of weakness with the satellite and space shuttle missions. They agree there will be no reduction in troop strength. They also agree to a gradual replacement of older equipment in Soviet Forces in Germany. (FPC)

28 December 1988: USSR performs nuclear test at Eastern Kazakh/Semipalitinsk
USSR. *

29 December 1988: The Soviet nuclear test right after Christmas was taken by the nations of the world as a slap in the face. US lead nations move to put sanctions on the Soviet Union in the UN. (FPC)

[Mad Russian]

1989
4 January 1989: Gulf of Sidra incident. Two Libyan MiG-23 jets are engaged and shot down by US Navy F-14 fighters. *

5 January 1989: STAVKA meets again and is concerned with US/NATO aggression in the Med and Middle East. They commission a study to be done in the next 60 days to determine what their best response to the rising tensions are. (FPC)

15 January 1989: Thirty-five European nations, meeting in Vienna, agree to strengthen human rights and strengthen East-West trade. *

18 January 1989: The Polish United Workers' Party votes to legalize Solidarity. *

23 January 1989: A powerful earthquake in the Tajik Soviet Socialist Republic kills around 275 people. *

25 January 1989: In response to the earthquake emergency, and the winding down of the war in Afghanistan, the reactivation of STAVKA is announced to the world. NATO nations respond within hours for concern that the Soviet Union has reactivated the Supreme military command structure. Soviet statements to the response were calm and conciliatory. (FPC)

30 January 1989: Prime Minister of Canada Brian Mulroney shuffles his cabinet, appointing 6 new ministers and re-assigning the responsibilities of 19 others. *

2 February 1989: The last Soviet Union forces leaves Kabul, ending 9 years of military occupation. *

6 February 1989: The government of the People's Republic of Poland holds formal talks with representatives of Solidarity movement for the first time since 1981. *

15 February 1989: The Soviet Union announces that all of its troops have left Afghanistan. *

17 February 1989: USSR performs nuclear test at Eastern Kazakh/Semipalitinsk USSR. *

18 February 1989: The test gets a strong reaction from the rest of the world. There is a UN Securities Council meeting called to put sanctions on the Soviet Union. (FPC)

23-27 February 1989: U.S. President Bush visits Japan, China, and South Korea, attending the funeral of Hirohito and then meeting with China's Deng Xiaoping and South Korea's Roh Tae-woo. *

24 February 1989: US performs nuclear test at Nevada Test Site. *

25 February 1989: UN Security Council takes action against Soviets for their nuclear testing but not against the US for it's continued testing. (FPC)

6 March 1989: STAVKA meets to receive the report on it's best course of action. The NATO countries are mostly in economic turmoil. With the removal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan and no more military moves or nuclear tests the situation concerning the Soviet Union have calmed. The political situation where the US is strengthening it's ties with the PRC and the Asian nations along with the Western nations trying to create better relations with the Warsaw Pact nations is unacceptable.

The report concludes that the Group of Soviet Forces should be readied for a strike against Western Europe. If the situation defuses itself then all will be good. If the situation deteriorates further the recommendation is to strike Western Europe. The recommended date of the operation would be mid-summer 1989. (FPC)

9 March 1989: Soviet Union officially submits to jurisdiction of the World Court. *

9 March 1989: US performs nuclear test at Nevada Test Site. *

10 March 1989: Soviets complain about continued nuclear testing to the UN Security Council. (FPC)

5 April 1989: The Polish Government and the Solidarity labor union sign an agreement restoring Solidarity to legal status, and agreeing to hold democratic elections on June 1. *

7 April 1989: The Soviet submarine K-278 Komsomolets sinks in the Barents Sea, killing 41. *

12 April 1989: A report is delivered to STAVKA that the K-278 was sunk by a US hunter/killer submarine. (FPC)

14 April 1989: STAVKA recommends to the Politburo and the State Defense Committee (GKO), that an attack against Western Europe be considered as the best response. Operation name Red Storm. Operational effective date 20 July 1989. (FPC)

18 April 1989: STAVKA is ordered to execute Operation Red Storm. (FPC)

19 April 1989: President of the Soviet Union Gorbachev announces the total removal of all Soviet Forces in Germany. He further announces that the Soviet Union is willing to negotiate the reunification of the German Democratic Republic and the Federal Republic of Germany. (FPC)

19 April 1989: Gun turret explodes on USS Iowa, killing 47 sailors. *

15 May 1989: Soviet President Gorbachev in Beijing for 1st Sino-Soviet summit in 30 years. *

16 May 1989: Soviet president Mikhail S Gorbachev & Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping ended a 30-year rift when they formally met in Beijing. *

26 May 1989: US performs nuclear test at Nevada Test Site. *

30 May 1989: Soviets announce the withdrawal schedule for their forces in East Germany. The first troops are scheduled to withdraw starting on 20 July 1989. (FPC)

2 June 1989: 10,000 Chinese soldiers are blocked by 100,000 citizens protecting students demonstrating for democracy in Tiananmen Square, Beijing. *

3 June 1989: Chinese troops kill hundred of pro-democracy students in Beijing. *

4 June 1989 - Beijing police officer shoots & wounds Chinese Premiere Li Ping. *

8 July 1989: USSR performs nuclear test at Eastern Kazakh/Semipalitinsk USSR. *

17 July 1989: 1st Test flight of US stealth-bomber. *

19 July 1989: The peoples of the two republics of Germany celebrate the reunion movement of the two countries that are to start at noon on the 20th. (FPG)

20 July 1989: Operation Red Storm begins with the movement of Soviet combat formations leaving their bases. This is not an event that has NATO overly worried. Most units are at 75% alert status, the units are not sent to their defensive positions on the border but simply confined to post. There will be no accidental derailment of the Soviet forces leaving Germany for the final time.

[Talon_XBMCX]

The only one you forgot to add is the release date ... with an asterisk of course

[Mad Russian]

It's there. You just have to look in the right thread is all.

Good Hunting.

MR

[MikeGER]

local contemporary witness comment :

add 7. May 1989: the so called "GDR" faked the local elections in a way that was obvious for all citizens, the mass movement (called Peaceful Revolution) against their oppressive communist government begin to form up *

change:
19 July 1989: The peoples of the Federal Republic of Germany celebrate and prepared for the planed mass exodus "March to Liberty" over the border of hundred thousands of unhappy "GDR" citizens, which The Peaceful Revolution movement has called for to start at noon on the 20th. (FPG)


(historical that exodus really happened a little later then 20 July and in several chunks,
starting with the summer vacation in July, at the timemark 3 Oct more then 35 000 "GDR" citizen had moved to Hungary which has soften the border patrol to the West to almost none, using their brother-states vacation permit and had fled, several thousands others had seeked refugee in the German embassy compound in Praq and other places... and there was no way the "GDR" was able to contain the exodus...)

PS: please consider that the "GDR" forces would not all fight with high morale, esp. against WestGerman troops in Jul 1989...

[wodin]

Great timeline..good to have this backstory.

[Mad Russian]

1987
The US is performing nuclear tests at the Nevada Test Site. The British are continuing to be extremely conservative and have reelected their Conservative Party. During December of 1987 the US and USSR sign a treaty eliminating medium range nuclear missiles. Fifteen days later the Soviet Central Committee, feeling that they were beginning to lose control of the situation, has a study done that includes an attack on Western Europe.

1988
The nuclear arms race is accelerated. The Peoples Republic of China, the US, France and the USSR all do nuclear testing. The political arena has most of the supporting nations of the USSR drifting away; either towards the West and NATO or to no less than a neutral position. Numerous military conflicts are taking place in very strategic locations. Iran/Iraq, Pakistan/India, as well as Afghanistan/USSR are all active combat theaters. The USSR decides to withdraw from Afghanistan and the Iran/Iraq War has finally run it's course.

At the same time the UN Security Council, led by a US backed initiative, is asking for sanctions against the USSR because of it's nuclear testing. Soviet calls for identical sanctions against the US, for it's nuclear testing, are ignored by the world community.

In December STAVKA is reactivated. Ostensibly to help the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan and for emergency aid coordination for earthquake victims. In reality, the STAVKA activation is to provide an options package for the worsening political environment the USSR now finds it's self facing. To give the Soviets a military response if necessary.

1989
The year starts with the US Navy imposing it's strength in the Mediterranean Sea. It shoots down two Libyan jets in the Gulf of Sidra Incident. STAVKA immediately commissions a study to be done within 60 for recommendations to growing US/NATO/Peoples Republic of China actions.

During the 60 days nuclear testing continues by all parties. Thirty-five European nations, meeting in Vienna, agree to strengthen human rights and strengthen East-West trade, as well as Poland beginning to fracture politically. The UN Security Council votes for sanctions against the USSR for continued nuclear testing.

On 7 April 1989, the incident, that would propel the world to war, took place. The K-278 Komsomolets sinks in the Barents Sea amid initial reports that it was sunk by a US hunter/killer submarine. Later reports would show the submarine was lost to a fire and was not the victim of a US submarine attack. When the news of the lost of the K-278 to a US submarine were received the order was given to execute Operation Red Storm. The name given to the attack on Western Europe.

In June, another tipping point in favor of the attack in Western Europe, Chinese dissidents in Beijing challenge government authority. The Chinese leadership shoot hundreds of students. At the moment the People's Republic of China has other problems besides it's relations with the Soviet Union.

During the months leading up to the attack, the Soviet political machine made all the right moves and overtures to the West. Including the appearance of them leaving East Germany and the allowance of reunification. With all of Germany and the world rejoicing at the withdrawal and the reunification there were huge celebrations. Thousands of East Germans were set to pour into West Germany after the Soviet withdrawal on the 20th of July.

At midnight, on the 20th of July 1989, the withdrawal started. Several Soviet combat divisions left their barracks and started the long road march home. Or so it seemed.

[Mad Russian]

A1 A Time To Dance


Scenario Size: Small
Best Played as NATO Player

Date: 20 July 1989
Time: 0 Hours (0400 Hours) Day Break.
Location: Near Bad Neustadt, West Germany and Camp Lee.
Weather: Patchy fog with light clouds. Light wind from the Northwest.

The Soviet Union is withdrawing it's forces from the German Democratic Republic (GDR). They have alerted both NATO and the UN that they are moving two divisions east in the sector of the 8th Guards Army. This announcement was made months in advance. Several smaller units have left their permanent duty stations, earlier this month, for new locations further east.

NATO was on low alert status and is having to learn to deal with the fact that the Cold War is over. What to do now?

But wait, the 533rd Military Intelligence (MI) Battalion stationed in the Fulda Gap is getting information that isn't matching up with how events should be unfolding. It seems the Soviets aren't moving to the east. They start scrambling to find out what's up.

The 79th Guards Tank Division left it's garrison at Suhl and moved southeast on Route 281. When it reached Coburg the lead element, the 17th Guards Tank Regiment, turned southwest on Route 303 and west onto Route 279. The entire time they were in road march formation. There was no NATO interference with the approach to the border.

17th Guards Tank Regiment entered Saal an der Saale and gave the prearranged order for the batteries of 8th Guards Army to fire on Camp Lee and the approaches to Bad Neustadt and Rödelmaier. The guns errupted into life as the lead elements drove through Wülfershausen and turned towards the 11th ACR.

2nd Squadron, 11th ACR at Camp Lee, outside Bad Neustadt, is hammered by 122mm artillery fire. The camp had been warned only minutes before and many of the squadrons vehicles were already moving towards Rödelmaier on Route 279. It is fitting that 2nd Squadron was the last element of the Regiment to leave Vietnam after five and a half years of service and it is the first US unit to be engaged by the Soviet advance in WWIII.

The two elite units that have been facing each other over the decades will come together in a mighty clash. The Black Horse outposts along the border at Rödelmaier will have to deal with the Soviet advance down Route 279 until the rest of the squadron can move to their aid. Or until the Soviet Army breaks through and is advancing.

At 0400 the day is just beginning. What was going to be a hot day in July was about to get a lot hotter.

The Cold War is about to become a Hot War. It's time to dance to the music.

[Mad Russian]

ORIGINAL: Panman

The only one you forgot to add is the release date ... with an asterisk of course

*8 October - tentative release date.

Good Hunting.

MR