Decline & Fall AAR v2

[composer99]

If the USSR just has spare build points floating around, it might produce a few of these units to sink convoys or annoy the Japanese.

[composer99]

Most of the Red Army in the force pool. Some of the older armies might get scrapped, while anything fast enough (and perhaps the spare PARA corps) will be built for Manchuria.

[composer99]

Here is the force pool of blitz and artillery forces, as well as the rather unlikely-to-appear supply units.

[composer99]

Because it's fairly small, therefore easy to share, and also because the USSR is liable to actually build this stuff (what with having strong production that is effectively invulnerable), here is the USSR 1945 force pool. Lots of nice fighters (though surely not as nice as the Germans or other Allies).

[composer99]

USSR Production Planning

To round out the USSR setup, here is the USSR's production planning.

Production Estimates
Not taking into account lending from the Allies, or resources & factories taken from the Axis, the USSR can expect to produce a minimum of 42 build points in 1944, if it uses all its oil to reorganize, to a maximum of 58 build points, if it uses no oil to reorganize.

You can see in the production multiple chart that the USSR's base multiple is 1.25 this year. To this multiple we add 0.25 because the USSR controls at least one of Minsk & Kiev, 0.25 more because the USSR controls all of Leningrad, Moscow, and Stalingrad, and 0.25 more because there are in-supply Axis units in the USSR home country.

Offensive Chits
The USSR will probably build 1-2 offensive chits per turn in 1944, and build 3 per turn over the winter so that it will have 3 arriving in each of the summer turns of 1945.

Air Units
The USSR will spend approximately two-thirds of its production, after offensive chits, on air units and pilots. Possibly a bit more.

Land Units
The USSR will spend the remaining one-third of its post-o-chit production on land units.

Naval Units
Kind of an afterthought. I estimate about a 2% chance, at best, that the USSR will bother buying new subs. After all, the build points so spent could be saved and used for something better (say, a pilot) the next turn.

[composer99]

All right, finally after some delay, the Allies (United States (US), Commonwealth (CW), France (Fr)).

Step 5. The Allies

With their globe-spanning operations, quality late-war armies, air forces, and unparalleled naval power, the Allies will make or break the game for the overall Allied side (including the continental Eurasian Allies - the USSR and China).

So let's move on what they are scrapping. A lot of the units getting scrapped would probably not be in a 1939 game, or would not be scrapped by or in 1944 in a game starting in 1939. But this scenario is 8 turns long and the Axis unit density is already low compared to a 1939 start.

[composer99]

Scrapping

French Scrapping

The French don't have a lot to scrap, largely because much of their force pool remains unavailable while France is still under German control.

What they do scrap, they scrap in order to have access to the best units they can get given the limited forces they start with.

[composer99]

Commonwealth Scrapping

Let's start with the CW fighter scrapping.

The CW scraps every unit with an air combat rating of 5 or less. Given the size and quality of their air force, they won't need them. (In a game starting in 1939 I personally would keep planes with ratings of 5 and up.)

[composer99]

CW bomber scrapping - here the CW scraps every bomber with 2 or fewer tactical factors. Some strategic bombers are exempt from this condition on account of being strategic bombers.

[composer99]

CW carrier plane scrapping.

The CW was much less aggressive scrapping CVP than it might have liked, but its CVP in the late game are very heavy compared to the carriers it has available, so it has to hold on to a lot of lighter CVP just to get a shot at having planes to fly.

[composer99]

CW naval unit scrapping.

The CW scraps sealift aggressively and scraps submarines moderately. Submarines the CW could go either way on, but in a 1939 game the CW would not normally scrap sealift as much, least of all AMPH.

(You can also see an air transport the CW scrapped - normally the CW wouldn't do such a thing, but I did not want it to run even the slightest chance of drawing this ATR in its unit setup - the struck-out parachute symbol means this air transport can't be used for paradrops.)

[composer99]

CW land unit scrapping.

The CW does not scrap too many land units, but it does scrap older and/or pink-factor gun units. The CW wants to draw good field artillery or red-factor anti-tank/anti-air guns.

[composer99]

United States Scrapping

The US scraps fighters, more or less as aggressively as it can.

[composer99]

The US scraps bombers very aggressively.

The B26 Marauder units might have had the tactical factors to stay in the lineup, but their short range meant that the US didn't want to draw them, not when there are so many better units available.

And while the CW kept most, if not all, of its scrap-eligible strategic bombers (on account of them being more-or-less equivalent to its late-war bombers), the US' early-war strategic bombers are pretty piss-poor. So off they go. Who wants a 1939 model B-17 when you can get a late-model B-29?

[composer99]

US CVP scrapping.

The US has a lot of CVP, so there are a lot, scrapped and left un-scrapped, that didn't make it onto this screen capture.

The US was more aggressive scrapping fighter-style CVP than bomber-style CVP. Like the CW, it still needs a healthy supply of lighter CVP, although this is for its many light carriers.

[composer99]

US Navy scrapping.

Pretty much identical to the CW's scrapping, and for much the same reason.

[composer99]

US Army scrapping.

The US scraps its land units relatively aggressively.

(In a 1939 game I would pretty much scrap MOT and MECH units as they are scrapped here. The INF and GARR units would be kept, though.)

[Symple]

So you are scrapping only to get rid of units you do not wish the game system selects to deploy?

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

All counter draws, both in setup and production, are random. I don't get to choose "I want to build that super-strong 12 factor ARM I've got." You build "An ARM" or you set up "An ARM".


So you scrap to make sure you don't waste your money/setup space on weaker units, instead getting the stronger ones. The downside of this, is that you shrink your force pool overall; you only have so many units you're allowed to build.

[composer99]

It's late and I've gone through the setup and taken screenshots of setup and force pools.

I will try to get the Allied strategic considerations, overall strategy, and production strategy, with accompanying screen captures, up over the course of the week.