Decline & Fall AAR v2

[composer99]

This time, the US finds but the Japanese don't. However, based on the search rolls it appears the US can't call a sub combat if it includes the 0 box.

Since the US doesn't want to get bombed again, it will probably just pick the 1 box and the subs will torpedo the cruiser.

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

EDIT: Nvm, misread the above.

[composer99]

Chastened and wary after the devastating bombing, the US sub squadrons find and attack a patrolling cruiser.

[composer99]

The light cruiser Noshiro is sunk by the sudden onslaught of torpedoes.

[composer99]

Before its destruction, the Noshiro did spot some submarines and used depth charges against them. The minor damage inflicted has forced this sub squadron to return to base (the sub unit is aborted).

[composer99]

Once again, both sides are left with the choice to stay or flee.

Both sides choose to stay and the US commits its subs.

[composer99]

As it turns out, both sides roll high on their searches (9 for the US & 8 for Japan) and the combat ends.

The aborted submarines return to Honolulu.

2 submarine squadrons were lost to one Japanese light cruiser - not at all the kind of results the US was hoping for, least of all the people who now have to draft letters for and visit the families of the sailors lost at sea.

[composer99]

For its part, the Commonwealth initiates combat in the South China Sea.

The Japanese intercept with planes and the Allies commit their subs.

[composer99]

The Allies find and the Japanese do not. However, similar to the fight in the China Sea, the Allies do not have enough surprise to call the combat if they include the 0 box.

Commonwealth and French submarines will instead engage the Abukuma.

[composer99]

The Allied torpedoes sink the Abukuma.

[composer99]

The Abukuma's guns inflict light damage on several submarines, aborting them back to port.

(The Allies elect to leave the French at sea to be able to activate with them in future impulses if the Commonwealth is playing a land or air impulse.)

[composer99]

Both sides elect to remain at sea.

The Allies commit their subs.

[composer99]

Now, this is a bit more interesting. The Allies found (with their top box) and the Axis did not, and the Allies have enough surprise to call the combat, though not enough to do anything else.

The question facing the CW is: do they want to proceed? The answer depends on how much damage the Japanese ASW will inflict.

The form shows Japan has 7 ASW factors, against 1 target, which would inflict 1 damage and 2 abort results. Since the CW is only shooting at a single convoy point, this doesn't seem worth it.

The CW submarines submerge and the combat ends. (The aborted subs from the previous round of combat return to Trincomalee in Ceylon.)

[composer99]

Here is a marked up naval CRT with the column the Japanese are firing on, and the row the CW target profile is on. Where the two rectangles meet is the damage inflicted by the Japanese ASW.

[composer99]

The CW has one last combat to initiate, in the Baltic Sea.

This is hopefully more of a sure bet for the CW, since while the Germans could send one of their hefty fighters up to protect the 0 box, they probably won't, not with the Soviet air force on the warpath this impulse.

[composer99]

Oops! The CW forgot about the Finnish fighters.

These fly to sea upon reports arriving of enemy naval bombers in the region. So does the German long-range naval bombers, to act as spotters. (Recall that NAV give the box they are in a boost to search rolls, so if the Germans roll a 1 they find.)

[composer99]

In the end the CW gets a good surprise split. But will it use it to sink the German ships out on patrol (concentrate on the 1 box) or will it try to fight through (fight the 0 box, spending surprise on the air combat)?

[composer99]

In the end the CW decides it will brave the Finnish fighters. With 12 surprise points it can swing the air combat to its advantage.

[composer99]

So begins the first air combat of this game.

The combat begins at Axis +1/-1 Allied

The CW can spend surprise to boost its own air combat rating, or reduce the Finnish air combat rating.

Since the CW doesn't particularly care about shooting down the fighter, compared to getting its bomber through, it will probably shift the Finns down more, and maybe shift itself up a column.

[composer99]

The unmodified air combat results. Blue is the CW column, grey, the German/Finn column.

Because the random number generation simulates the roll of two dice, middle results are more likely and extreme results less.

That being the case, the Axis has a 30% chance of shooting down the CW bomber and a 26% chance of aborting it, and only a 28% chance of clearing it through.

For its part, the CW has a 20% chance of shooting something down (probably the fighter even if the Germans get to pick: that NAV is expensive) and a 29% chance of aborting something. It doesn't care about clearing through results because there are no ships for the Germans to bomb, and because the Germans roll first, they can't bounce the CW bomber if it rolls a 'clear' result.

This will not do.