Decline & Fall AAR v2

[brian brian]

but WW2 histories frequently cover the summer of 1944 by showering Patton with all the glory for racing across France, while shortly after D-Day the Russians launched Operation Bagration (the name of a Russian Prince who fought Napoleon), which caused the Germans over 400,00 total casualties: 8 times more than Patton's Operation Cobra did in France. Germany was in a hopeless position by 1944, but the final collapse in the west was caused by the relentless pressure from the east.

A Russian air impulse is a great way to open the summer 1944 campaign season and replicate the success of Bagration. A WiF player might likely have a more robust Red Air Force than the historical one. Flying 17 aircraft and re-organizing them ALL, then re-organizing all those HQs with an O-Chit for subsequent land impulses tends to devastate a lot, and keep the Luftwaffe well back on it's heels, superior fighters or not.



And if Hitler were in charge of this impending decision, he would have said "Rudel has given us the opportunity to Attack! Manstein must move forward with all available vehicles!"

[Neilster]

but WW2 histories frequently cover the summer of 1944 by showering Patton with all the glory for racing across France, while shortly after D-Day the Russians launched Operation Bagration (the name of a Russian Prince who fought Napoleon), which caused the Germans over 400,00 total casualties: 8 times more than Patton's Operation Cobra did in France. Germany was in a hopeless position by 1944, but the final collapse in the west was caused by the relentless pressure from the east.

I don't disagree with you but I'd add that the German armies in the west were fought-out by the time Patton was unleashed, and we shouldn't forget the Italian front.

Cheers, Neilster

[composer99]

I'm still hemming and hawing on whether to launch an attack. I can't guarantee that I'll chase away defensive ground support (in fact, more likely than not it will get through), but wearing my German hat I know the USSR will want to launch more groundstrikes of its own next impulse, so I don't expect to face every single Soviet bomber.

On the whole, I can get a 3:2 attack with a decent shot at it becoming 2:1, somewhere on the line, so base +3 to the roll; most defending hexes give -4 blitz mods (especially the most "delicious" target) and I can get +4 blitz mods to compensate; then add +5 for disorganized units and I end up with a +8 blitz. If I make fractional odds and get 2:1 it becomes +9

For the purpose of this post, here is a link to some screen captures Steve posted of the 2d10 chart.

Basically, it can work out like this:

Fractional Odds Fails (+8 attack)
- I lose if I roll an 8 or lower (aggregate 28% probability) - I become disorganized (which would entail HQ Manstein becoming disorganized) and take losses (aka the MOT corps)
- I sort of win if I roll a 9 (8% probability) or 10 (9% probability), for net results of 17 or 18, as these result in no attacker losses and retreat the defenders, but some attackers become disorganized
- I sort of win, but really I lose, if I roll an 11 (10% probability) or 12 (9% probability), for net results of 19 or 20, as these result in the attacker taking losses (in the case of 20, because I am attacking ARM/MECH in clear terrain), even though I shatter the defenders; also some attacking units get disorganized
- I actually win on a roll of 13 or better (aggregate 36% probability) for a net result of 21+, meaning I shatter the defenders and maybe inflict losses, while taking no losses myself and staying organized.

Fractional Odds Success (+9 attack)
- I lose if I roll a 7 or lower (aggregate 21% probability)
- I sort of win on rolls of 8 or 9 (aggregate 15% probability)
- I sort of win, but really lose (because of losses) on rolls of 10 or 11 (aggregate 19% probability) - these two are two of the most likely results
- I win on rolls of 12 or better (aggregate 45% probability)

Okay, now that I've crunched the numbers it doesn't look good at all. Not with an HQ involved.

(The reason Manstein has to become involved is because the USSR's artillery disorganized the SS ARM corps in the sector - if that unit was available and I had a motorized, or even a mech, division to take losses, it would probably be worth the risk.)

The only reason to take the risk is that it could dilute the attack on Rumania.

Well, it's a long turn, the USSR ain't attacking along this front next impulse, and I can probably rail in a division and reorganize some units. No sense getting impatient.

[Neilster]

Well...it's about time you got back to it. What have you been doing? Eating? Sleeping? How selfish!

Cheers, Neilster

[Klydon]

ORIGINAL: Neilster

When one reads WW2 histories, often by this point in the war the authors describe the Axis position as hopeless and it was all mostly a mopping up operation but this AAR gives a good idea of the territory (and resources) they still controlled and the fighting power they stilled possessed. It's no walkover.

In fact, historically, it was really only late-ish March 1945 before Germany's frontier defences in the west really collapsed. Until then her integrity was somewhat intact. Japan was starved of resources but something similar was true for her. As not many WiF games get this far, this is an extremely valuable exercise.

Cheers, Neilster

As strong as Germany was at this point, they were heavily outnumbered in equipment, had manpower issues (not represented in the game really) and were on the strategic defensive. They still had a lot of combat power, but it would be ground down in the months ahead. Case in point in the West, the fight was a grinding fight for 2 months before Patton finally broke out. The Germans had run out of replacements/reserves (mostly due to Bagration) and simply could not stop him.

I think one should keep in mind Bagration saw the use of 2.3+ million Russians against some 900,000 Germans. Of course that is going to dwarf anything going on in Normandy where the Allies had some 11 divisions total involved in Cobra.

For Japan, their oil and resource situation was critical by 1944 due to the US sub campaign. They simply could not deal with the shipping losses even with their industry largely intact until later in the year when the strategic bombing campaign started in earnest further damaging Japan's ability to wage war.

[Neilster]

ORIGINAL: Klydon

ORIGINAL: Neilster

When one reads WW2 histories, often by this point in the war the authors describe the Axis position as hopeless and it was all mostly a mopping up operation but this AAR gives a good idea of the territory (and resources) they still controlled and the fighting power they stilled possessed. It's no walkover.

In fact, historically, it was really only late-ish March 1945 before Germany's frontier defences in the west really collapsed. Until then her integrity was somewhat intact. Japan was starved of resources but something similar was true for her. As not many WiF games get this far, this is an extremely valuable exercise.

Cheers, Neilster

As strong as Germany was at this point, they were heavily outnumbered in equipment, had manpower issues (not represented in the game really) and were on the strategic defensive. They still had a lot of combat power, but it would be ground down in the months ahead. Case in point in the West, the fight was a grinding fight for 2 months before Patton finally broke out. The Germans had run out of replacements/reserves (mostly due to Bagration) and simply could not stop him.

I think one should keep in mind Bagration saw the use of 2.3+ million Russians against some 900,000 Germans. Of course that is going to dwarf anything going on in Normandy where the Allies had some 11 divisions total involved in Cobra.

For Japan, their oil and resource situation was critical by 1944 due to the US sub campaign. They simply could not deal with the shipping losses even with their industry largely intact until later in the year when the strategic bombing campaign started in earnest further damaging Japan's ability to wage war.

I agree. The Axis position was hopeless. I was really referring to the lack of emphasis many historians (especially when referring to the West) pay to the fact that there was a lot of serious fighting yet to be done.

Also, apart from residual fighting power, the territory the Axis still controlled at the beginning of June 1944 had a powerful effect on the attitude of its people.

For Germany, despite (essentially) defeat in the Mediterranean, the reverses in the East and strategic bombing there was still a strong belief that Hitler was going to pull something out of the bag. There were many reasons for this. The reporting of the war was pretty obscure and concentrated on local victories. There were promises of secret weapons. The Alliance was going to fall apart. There was no alternative to victory because Germany would be destroyed etc etc.

Although Bagration was a complete disaster, it was still somewhere to the East and most Germans didn't realise what was going on. While the borders of the Reich were intact things still seemed reasonably under control. Almost right to the end the belief in final victory was strong and it sustained the fighting power of the Wehrmacht.

The Japanese public were similarly kept in the dark and when it did become obvious that the homeland was threatened they also had a bizarre idea that victory was somehow possible. Incredibly, they even believed that if Japan was invaded, that the Emperor in hiding in the hills and a guerrilla campaign constituted "victory". No matter what happened they were prepared to go down swinging; and that meant the civilian population too.

Cheers, Neilster

[composer99]

For context, here is a graphical representation of military deaths each year of the war (with some odd exclusions: Commonwealth vs. Japan & China vs. Japan, maybe others?):



The numbers might need tweaking, or not, but I think the gist comes across: the final phase of the war was no cakewalk for the Allies

[Neilster]

It shows how the German people suddenly realised they were in a real war from the beginning of Barbarossa onwards. Before then, a string of virtually bloodless victories....by December 1941, the USSR is still fighting and a heap of dead Hermans. And it only gets worse from there, with 1944 and 1945 being really bad. Mind you, the Russians suddenly realised they were in a war then too and their losses were horrific.

For the Wallies...a bit of a blip with the French campaign in 1940 but things get serious in 1944. Surprisingly few deaths for the U.S. in the Pacific, despite the grim campaigns from the Marianas onwards. There were generally not long fronts with daily attrition but the casualties from disease would have thinned the ranks plenty anyway. Also, as has been noted, no Commonwealth figures in the Pacific, for some reason. Must have been compiled by the History Channel. They generally forget the Commonwealth fought there. [8|]

Cheers, Neilster

[composer99]

Land Moves (reprise)

Germany
In the end, Germany makes some moves in northern USSR and the Baltics:
- the infantry corps in Estonia shuffles towards Latvia
- the organized units in Vitebsk move back to the Dvina
- a militia in the swamps shifts back to form a continuous line

[composer99]

In central Europe, the Germans move an armoured corps down to the line in Italy and from Denmark into Germany.

(The former unit will stay in Italy until infantry reinforcements arrive, at which point it will redeploy to more useful areas.)

[composer99]

Land Attacks

Perhaps consistent with the ideology of the Nazi régime, the German Army engages in a spate of partisan clean-up in advance of the withdrawal of the rest of the Army from the front.

[composer99]

The Japanese, for their part, attack the motorized division that dared stick its neck out.

[composer99]

The combat summary form.

[composer99]

Not surprisingly, the partisan is swiftly dispatched.

The Germans do not advance after combat.

[composer99]

The Japanese attack in China has only a 6% probability of going wrong.

[composer99]

... and a 6 comes up on the dice, only a few hops away from that probability space.

Nevertheless, the battle ends in triumph.

[composer99]

The Japanese retake the port.

[composer99]

Rebases

The Germans rebase some planes to France.

[composer99]

The Germans also rebase a fighter from Poland to contest the front lines in Belorussia.

[composer99]

As the Axis does not engage in any reorganization, this ends their impulse.