Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[Cribtop]

May 10, 1943

Mandalay falls!

Subs

Pogy misses and xAKL near Tokara Retto.

SE Fleet

B-25s continue to visit Tulagi. Our Tonys and Nicks were up over Lae but the enemy 4Es take the day off there.

Guam goes to airfield 2.

Southern Army

D minus 4 to close the last Broome hex side. The IJAAF pounds the trapped enemy forces daily. No flak bursts means no supply. This will end badly for the Allies.

We do spot what looks like two DDs trying to make an FT TF run into Broome. Subs, Vals, and Nells prepare to meet them, but this is a good idea by CF as the faster ships will make tougher targets than the kamikaze xAKs sent previously.

Burma

B-25s somehow sail right through Tojos on LRCAP to bomb our tanks at Mandalay.

The IJAAF bombs Mandalay and discovers the defenders are 1/3rd of an Indian Division rather than a base force. We should have remembered this as I think we recon bombed this base about a month ago.

Given these two events, Cribtop HQ was nervous, but our fears in the end were misplaced. SA Mandalay easily carries the base with 18:1 odds, forcing the garrison to retreat into the now surrounded enemy base at Meiktila. Casualties are 875(149) vs 56(1).

Our tank divisions are in fine shape, which is good as they may need every bit of combat power they can scrape up. The enemy stack in Meiktila has a move arrow towards Mandalay, and our infantry for some reason only travels 16 miles down the good road from Magwe to Meiktila. They were in move mode and good supply with no air attacks. ETA tomorrow or the next day. A big march tomorrow could be huge.

An air HQ, a few AA units, and a bunch of Japan's heaviest artillery rail into Magwe. The arty begins marching on Meiktila. Yet another IJA infantry division and a big arty stack waiting at Taung Gyi also begin to march on the enemy base. We will fly one paratroop unit into Mandalay to add whatever additional AS we can to that critical base. A second para unit will rail into Magwe as a garrison.

The big question is whether CF was sending a unit or two to reinforce Mandalay or whether he ordered a general withdrawal. If the former, we will win the race to Meiktila and close him off. If the latter, he may get in one or two attacks against our armor at Mandalay before we catch up to him. The third possibility is that he overestimates his chances and tries to hold Meiktila while breaking through at Mandalay with part of his forces. Frankly, that would be a recipe for disaster for him. One encouraging detail - Magwe was utterly bereft of supply when taken, and that bodes ill for supply levels in Meiktila. One final note is that a huge batch of Oil moved down to Rangoon, where our refineries are merrily churning out much-needed supply. A nice bonus.

Moulmein goes to forts 3.

China

Tuyun makes forts 2.

[Cribtop]

Here we see the situation immediately after the fall of Mandalay. Hoping to run the next replay tonight!

PS - I forgot to mention that Mandalay is one of the bases that triggers Tokyo Rose gloating in the replay. Very unusual to hear it a second time for a base, especially in mid-1943. We're not there yet, though. The next 72 hours will tell the tale.

[Mike Solli]

Hey Cribtop, when you have a chance, can you list your OOB here? I'm really curious what you have here defending.

[Cribtop]

Sure, Mike. Currently I have two full IJA armored divisions and 1/3 of another in Mandalay. 2nd Parachute Regiment is flying in, while another 1/3rd of an IJA armored division will enter the Mandalay hex tomorrow. If I have more time, I'm going to fly in elements of 21st Infantry Bde, which is the Rangoon garrison. All told we should have around 1,000 AS tomorrow.

17th and 18th Armies, operating under the overall command of Burma Area Army, have 9 infantry divisions at Magwe headed into Meiktila. These units are uber-crack, with average EXP of 90+. Another infantry division is approaching from Taung Gyi.

Tagging along from Magwe are all of the "heavy" arty regiments, the big guns used originally to besiege Bataan IRL. A lot more arty is coming up from Taung Gyi as well. All told around 15 arty units.

[Mike Solli]

Very nice. How much supply do you have to ship in to keep everyone in beans and bullets?

[Cribtop]

I've been bringing one convoy with about 32K supply/month; but as Operation Scorpion has "gone hot" I am finding I need to double that. This isn't a problem, however, as supplies at Singers/Palembang are high and supplies at Tokyo are ludicrous (4.25M currently despite moving 300K to both Babel and Truk).

[Cribtop]

Wow. I am completely unable to process what happened today in Dallas. We didn't just beat OU, we blew them up. I am shocked that our team finally played up to its talent level (which ain't that great, but we were coming in well under for years). Equally shocked that OU didn't run Bell at all. Seeing as we are really bad at stopping running QBs and all. Crazy. Hook 'em Horns!

Anyhoo, the replay is in. Running it now.

[Cribtop]

Replay watched. Bottom line, it's unclear whether the whole Allied Army is marching to Mandalay. Two small units arrived today, not enough to attack. Our main army will arrive at Meiktila tomorrow. Both sides can attack on the 13th. This is going to be VERY close. One possibility is that CF is sending his best units to Mandalay, leaving the trash behind. Anything still in Meiktila could be destroyed. What a game!

[Cribtop]

OK, I owe you guys a few turn reports, but insane-o world sports results all weekend and in tonight's World Cup qualifiers have kept my attention. In the meantime, a little screenie of the latest replay in Burma. In case it isn't clear, the mouseover is for the remaining Allied LCUs in now fully surrounded in Meiktila.

Daddy likes (so far)!

[Mike Solli]

Grabbing a tiger by it's tail comes to mind. What do you have in the surrounding hexes?

[PaxMondo]

Yeah, but I bet they are out of supply and high in disablements. crib is going to harvest a lot of VP's here....

[veji1]

Poor 6th army.. you have stalingraded the commonwealth.

[Cribtop]

In many ways, you are all right. A few comments and then I will post the next two reports.

1) I only have one unit each in the hexes NW, SW and E of Meiktila. However, the units NW and SW will begin marching to close off the hex side tomorrow and should be able to do so before CF can march anyone out under constant ground bombing. He had to start first to win the race and I doubt he will now. The unit to the East is an RTA Cav unit that has been plodding through the jungle for about a week and has such a huge head start that any effort to slip out that way won't work. The western hex side (Magwe) is already closed, the SE hex side (Taung Gyi) will close tomorrow.

2) That leaves Mandalay. CF has put three small brown LCUs (thus I assume Indian army as his Brits are elsewhere and Aussies are green) into the hex, but they arrived too late to prevent the fall of the base. There is still a move arrow out of Meiktila. The question is - how much is already leaving and how much is staying, if any? How many troops will arrive tomorrow in Mandalay? When will CF be able to attack there? If he puts everything in the Mandalay hex and attacks ASAP, he could break out and escape. If he is hedging his bets and leaving good units (remember more than half his army is already messed up via retreats from the Arakan and Magwe battles) in Meiktila, he may fail to break through, lose Meiktila and see our infantry forces surround and destroy him in the Mandalay hex. I concur with Pax that his supply state is at best poor, at worst dire.

3). This will probably cause a tactical shift. We preferred to seal off Meiktila and pound him out of supplies entirely with bombers and massed artillery, but probably don't have time given the Mandalay dynamic. I am thus leaning toward an immediate DA at Meiktila tomorrow despite my fears of Allied firepower and the likelihood of good forts. The alternative is to risk letting him slip out of Meiktila and get away. We could get lucky and catch a bunch of his trashed units in the hex while the good stuff moves into Mandalay. I believe this would force a surrender as Japanese possession of Mandalay invalidates a retreat path there despite his ownership of the hex side. Of course, he could also stop me cold at Meiktila and force a delay that could let him escape anyway.

What would y'all do tomorrow? DA or BA at Meiktila? We have eight crack infantry divisions, and a bunch of arty as well as air superiority. He is either staying put, which would argue for a siege, or (more likely) evacuating Meiktila, which would argue for a DA. I am leaning strongly toward the DA.

[Cribtop]

May 11, 1943

Subs

Pogy duds on an xAKL near Tokara Retto. ASW assets in this hex have yet to chase this sub away.

5th Fleet

Nav search shows a slight uptick in enemy shipping at Adak. Nothing imminent, but CF is clearly building up here.

The usual B-26 raid hits Amchitka.

Uruppu Jima goes to forts 2.

SE Fleet

B-25s raid the Tulagi airfield.

Torokina goes to forts 5.

Southern Army

An IJA tank regiment enters the hex SE of Broome today and will turn toward the base tomorrow. We should close off the last Allied controlled hex side in 2-3 days. The enemy garrison is under heavy bombing and is eating rats.

A Japanese picket ship claims to spot a Dive Bomber near Exmouth, but Cribtop Intel believes this is a float plane or other land based aircraft.

No sign of the two DDs recently spotted in the area despite an active search. Vals at Derby will move into Port Hedland soon and should be in position to deal with any FT TF efforts to re-supply the garrison.

Burma

Two small enemy LCUs enter the Mandalay hex from Meiktila. The main IJA force from Magwe should enter Meiktila tomorrow. We are able to fly most of the 2nd Raiding Regiment into Mandalay, and another 1/3rd of a tank division arrives. AS is boosted over 1,000 as a result.

In the air over Mandalay, the Allies send multiple sweeps against our LRCAP Tojos. We start very well and fade over time as the planes wear out. Total A2A losses are better than 1:1, almost 3:2 in our favor.

We bomb enemy troops at Meiktila, enemy 4Es hit our troops in Mandalay. This raid sees the first combat deployment of the Liberator II.

[Cribtop]

May 12, 1943

Subs

A Sally is damaged by sub flak near Okinawa.

SE Fleet

The enemy P-38s and B-24s hit the port at Lae, resisted with only moderate effectiveness by a small LRCAP of Tonys and Nicks. The raid destroys 12 barges and a small xAK used for local supply shuttling.

Southern Army

Daly Waters goes to forts 6.

Our troops are 1 day out of Broome to close the last (SE) hex side.

Burma

In the air, titanic battles occur over Mandalay as we figure out a way to get more planes on station. Over numerous sweeps, we do very well except for one battle where enemy P-40s keep the bounce for the whole combat sequence. Still, this is the first time our CAP lasts long enough to at least harass the bomber stream. Overall A2A losses are 1:1, with both air forces losing just north of 20 planes. We suffer 10 KIA pilots.

Enemy Blenheims bomb Akyab and are welcome to it. The 4Es hit Mandalay's garrison again but aren't very effective due to the Tojos. Our Helens pound the enemy troops in Meiktila unopposed. We also added a decently effective night raid to hit enemy fighters at Chittagong.

One cool note is that our supply TF moves into Rangoon at full speed and unloads 32K tons of supply in a single phase. They are overflown by enemy search aircraft, which is new for Rangoon. We'll have to keep an eye out for a port or airfield raid at the Capital.

As expected, 17th and 18th Armies enter the Meiktila hex from Magwe. One arty unit lags behind but will get in tomorrow. Also due to arrive tomorrow from Taung Gyi is another infantry division, two engineer regiments, and a bunch more arty.

At Mandalay, we fly in the bulk of 1st Raiding Regiment and complete the airlift of 2nd Raiding Regt. Next our transports will start flying in elements of the Rangoon garrison. We are throwing every spare point of AV into Mandalay. We must hold!

One more small enemy LCU enters Mandalay from Meiktila. How much will arrive tomorrow? Elsewhere, the UK Division has abandoned the campaign in the Chinese mountains and is marching back to Lashio. We will begin harassment bombing of the two UK Divisions in the area to slow any attempt at reinforcement, but they are too far away to help before the issue is decided one way or the other.

China

Shaoyang makes forts 6.

Other

Good ground reinforcements arrive in the Home Islands. Elements of the Guards Division and a tank unit that will complete a division defending the Kuriles.

[Cribtop]

Well, the attack has been ordered. Should know the results tonight. Anything from bloody repulse to stalemate to sudden capture (if the toughest units march into Mandalay) is possible. Meanwhile, the race to fly troops and supplies into Mandalay continues. Now up to 1130 AS there and we hope that the supplies hastily landed at Rangoon yesterday start flowing to the front.

[Cribtop]

Just watched a SPLENDID replay. CF is in serious trouble at Meiktila. Very serious trouble. We may bag the whole army! Banzai!

[Cribtop]

May 13, 1943

A good day.

Subs

Near Dutch Harbor, I-20 is DC'd twice by enemy ASW DDs, once after missing a shot at her tormentors. The plucky sub is undamaged.

SE Fleet

Terapo goes to forts 4.

Southern Army

We close the last hex side at Broome. Time for the end game here. Two Australian Divisions and three support LCUs are doomed.

Burma

On a critical turn in this AO, everything breaks our way. Banzai!

First, the enemy fails to sweep Mandalay, probably due to weather over Chittagong. We had a max LRCAP effort of Tojos and Nicks waiting when 25 Liberator IIs showed up unescorted. This was the absolute cream of the IJAAF, with groups boasting average EXP of 80. The Tojos swarmed in, damaging many bombers and shooting down a few. Then the Nicks finished, downing one B-24 after another. 18 enemy machines failed to return home, and their bombing raid did almost nothing to our troops. Nice!

Our Helens hit troops and the airfield at Meiktila, while CF's Blenheims bombed Cox's Bazar.

We were shocked to note two things in Burma during the replay. First, we now see move arrows in both directions between Meiktila and Mandalay for the enemy. He has some troops moving to Mandalay and some back towards Meiktila. Indicative of confusion, perhaps. Second, recon shows that the 2nd UK Division is chasing our diversionary RTA Division toward Bhamo instead of moving toward Mandalay. This is a mistake IMHO, but we are thrilled.

During the move phase, we close out the SW and SE hex sides at Meiktila.

Finally, the Main Event. DA Meiktila finds 10 enemy LCUs present, all infantry. It appears the units in Mandalay are British armor. Only four of the LCUs in Meiktila have any AS in the replay (the two Aussie Divisions and two Indian Divisions). We are pleasantly surprised to find low fort levels, which could be very bad news for the Commonwealth. A DA obtains 2:1 odds right off the bat, forts are reduced to 2, casualties 4124(61) vs 4834(17). The enemy shows (-) for both DIS and FAT. This is much easier sledding than we anticipated, and we had fresh infantry and artillery arrive in Meiktila today that has not yet been brought to bear. The preponderance of heavy arty seemed to help the IJA's cause, with large reductions in AV during the bombardment phase of the attack. In short, Meiktila will fall as soon as its forts are gone, probably in just two more days. We might just pull this off!

In Mandalay, we gain supplies, increase forts to 1, and fly in most of the 1st Raiding Regiment. The back door isn't fully barred, but it is closing fast. Banzai!

[Cribtop]

PS - if anyone reading follows the Premier League, I have to say that my Gunners look good. The first and third goals against Norwich today were amazing from the standpoint of technical ability. The first was multiplayer improv at its finest, while the third goal was Ramsey making an absurd individual effort to pants two defenders and the goalie in the box. Oh, and the other two goals by that Ozil fellow weren't bad either. Fear the Umlaut! [:D]

[Cribtop]

Attention! Meiktila falls! Enemy units that don't surrender are trapped at Mandalay. Banzai!!!!!! [&o]

This campaign, and perhaps the war, come down to the next turn. We will move overwhelming force toward Mandalay from all points, they should arrive on the 16th (one armor unit might get in on the 15th). CF will probably attack on the 15th. If he takes Mandalay, he may escape. If he fails, over 100,000 Allied troops are destined for POW camps. Consider also that he has to buy out most Commonwealth units to cross national borders. The destruction of these LCUs will thus impose a crushing PP cost as well. If our lads at Mandalay can hold for one day, we may functionally knock the British Army out of the war for good.