Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[Spidery]

Am I missing something here, or can the Allies open an escape route from Mandalay by sending a small unit into Mandalay from Shwebo? The unit would die in the Shock Attack but open the hexside. If there is no AV in Shwebo to do this he could always fly a fragment in.

Great news at Meiktila!

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Attention! Meiktila falls! Enemy units that don't surrender are trapped at Mandalay. Banzai!!!!!! [&o]

This campaign, and perhaps the war, come down to the next turn. We will move overwhelming force toward Mandalay from all points, they should arrive on the 16th (one armor unit might get in on the 15th). CF will probably attack on the 15th. If he takes Mandalay, he may escape. If he fails, over 100,000 Allied troops are destined for POW camps. Consider also that he has to buy out most Commonwealth units to cross national borders. The destruction of these LCUs will thus impose a crushing PP cost as well. If our lads at Mandalay can hold for one day, we may functionally knock the British Army out of the war for good.

In my allied game, I just had a 200k allied men army trapped at Shweebo exactly in the same way... lost all of them... I know how CF is feeling....[:(]

[PaxMondo]

Huge defeat pending here in the transitional phase of the war. Kudos!! great job.

[obvert]

Wow, that is huge. I too know the pain, and it stings. Nice work and if this game continues on you are looking good. how is his state of mind now after all of the naval losses and now potentially this? Too bad no AAR on that side anymore. Would have been an amazing story!

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Spidery

Am I missing something here, or can the Allies open an escape route from Mandalay by sending a small unit into Mandalay from Shwebo? The unit would die in the Shock Attack but open the hexside. If there is no AV in Shwebo to do this he could always fly a fragment in.

Great news at Meiktila!

Its possible to open the hex side in the way you describe.

[Cribtop]

Indeed, and this is what I fear he will do if he fails to take Mandalay outright tomorrow. However, it will take him a few days to pull that off. How many LCUs would he lose in the interim? His four units with some AS left probably survive, but the trashed stuff may well surrender to a DA or two. Finally, even the surviving units will take heavy losses as I suspect we will force a retreat before he can march out to Shwebo. Really hard to know for sure how many LCUs will be destroyed and how many mauled, but either way the Allied offensive in Burma is kaput. So far, there is no move arrow out of Shwebo and I recon it every day.

As for CF's mental state, one reason I say this could mean the war is that he might concede if things go our way at Mandalay. Keep in mind he is about to lose two Australian IDs at Broome on top of his Burma losses. The naval losses mean he still has some months to go before he can try anything decisive. Utter defeat in Burma leaves him looking at several boring months before a race to stave off auto victory on Jan 1, 1944. Not an enticing prospect.

Still, CF has not uttered a peep about conceding and only one or two comments about low player morale, so who knows? The thought of actually winning a Scenario 1 game as Japan is really awesome. Even if I just get close to that result I'd be pretty happy with the game. I'm sending out orders tonight and should run the critical replay tomorrow. Banzai!

[Cribtop]

May 14, 1943

Meiktila falls.

Subs

I-33 misses a KV near Cochin, then takes 3 penetrating DC hits for her ill-advised attack. The sub somehow survives and will try to limp home.

SE Fleet

Allied 2Es continue their campaign against Tulagi's airfield.

Madang goes to airfield 4, which is nice now that we are fighting for the Lae complex of bases.

Southern Army

We BA at Broome to confirm the poor status of the defenders and find no surprises. Raw AS is 414:202, with only the Australian 4th Division showing any AV in the replay. DA tomorrow.

Langsa goes to forts 1. This base will soon host an Air HQ to torpedo enable numerous nearby bases and figures heavily in our defense plan for Northern Sumatra.

Burma

Nells hit Chittagong at night and are resisted by Beaufighters.

Helens bomb enemy ground troops at both Meiktila and Mandalay.

The Allied air force is nowhere to be seen despite generally good weather. Has CF conceded the skies?

DA Meiktila finds that all but two LCUs have evacuated the base by marching into the box canyon at Mandalay. The attack achieves 1003:1 odds and destroys the 268th Motorised Brigade and the A element of 7th Indian Division. Casualties are 1652(631) vs 35(0).

We will immediately pursue toward Mandalay in an effort to destroy the bulk of the Commonwealth Army. Will CF attack at Mandalay to try to punch through? Will he try to sacrifice a unit from Shwebo to open a hex side? How much damage can we do? This is a key moment in the war.

For today at least, there is no Allied attack at Mandalay. We use the rest to recover bomb related DIS, to gain supplies through the air bridge and traditional movement, and to fly in more infantry.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

The thought of actually winning a Scenario 1 game as Japan is really awesome. Even if I just get close to that result I'd be pretty happy with the game.

I didn't realize this was scenario 1. Well done indeed.

[Cribtop]

May 15, 1943

Broome Falls!

Subs

Gar torpedoes and later sinks a small TK near Toyohara. Our ASW TF had returned to base due to fuel issues. We need to get them back on station.

W-7 attacks Amberjack in the Makassar Strait and gets a penetrating hit with its Type 2 DCs. The timing is good as this hunter TF is trying to clear the way for a big tanker convoy.

5th Fleet

Shikuka goes to airfield 5.

SE Fleet

2Es raid Tulagi, 4Es hit Buna.

Finschafen goes to airfield 2. The idea is to surround Lae with fighter bases.

Southern Army

DA Broome finds an exhausted and starving garrison easy pickings. With 11:1 odds, we force the surrender of all elements of 3rd and 4th Australian Divisions, an AA unit, an arty unit and a base force. Casualties are at least 8424(1777) vs 248(1). That's a lot of Aussie squads to replace.

These losses, the direct result of the naval Battle of Exmouth, mean the Allies will either have to concede ownership of NW Oz for far longer than is normal or employ the US Army here. Either result is a strategic win for Japan. In addition, a crack IJAAF bomber wing and 4 good IJA LCUs are now available for deployment elsewhere.

Burma

The IJAAF makes a max air effort to bomb Mandalay and Shwebo (to slow down any kamikaze units on the march). There is no Allied response, due to either exhaustion in their fighter force or prevailing bad weather over their bases.

Bhamo is occupied by our guerilla RTA unit. These poor guys have soldiered on for months, occupying the efforts of two UK Divisions (1 garrisoning Lashio, 1 chasing the Thais). Nice!

No Allied attack at Mandalay. This tells me he doesn't plan to try to punch through as an attack today was critical to that strategy. No sign of a move arrow from Shwebo yet, either.

Unfortunately, we don't march a single unit into Mandalay yet. An armor unit will arrive tomorrow, with the bulk of the army coming in on the 17th. We calculate we will have about 2 days of attacks before an LCU can march in from Shwebo to open a hex side. Then around 4ish more days to attack before the Allies can get away. How many enemy troops will be able to run the gauntlet, and in what condition? What will we do next?

Good questions we are considering at Cribtop HQ. In Burma, a lot depends on how much we bag, but in general he can't stop us from taking Shwebo and we see no reason not to. A small armored unit is already maneuvering against this base's flank. A second invasion of NE India could be in the cards if we do well enough at Mandalay. Then again, at some point we would like to get the armored corps back to China. Over time, these tanks will become ineffective against the Western Allies but will be unstoppable against the KMT. If CF continues the war, our main goal in the Pacific will be to convince him to prematurely commit a still outnumbered USN, as one more naval victory should get us to '44 with a 3:1 auto-vic. Not sure how or where to do this yet.

[Cribtop]

A little more detail at Broome:

 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Ground combat at Broome (62,127)
 
Japanese Deliberate attack
 
Attacking force 9512 troops, 42 guns, 224 vehicles, Assault Value = 418
 
Defending force 9026 troops, 165 guns, 108 vehicles, Assault Value = 197
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 237
 
Allied adjusted defense: 21
 
Japanese assault odds: 11 to 1 (fort level 1)
 
Japanese forces CAPTURE Broome !!!
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-), supply(-)
Attacker:
 
Japanese ground losses:
     248 casualties reported
        Squads: 1 destroyed, 26 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
     8424 casualties reported
        Squads: 424 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Non Combat: 996 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Engineers: 42 destroyed, 0 disabled
     Guns lost 204 (204 destroyed, 0 disabled)
     Vehicles lost 111 (111 destroyed, 0 disabled)
     Units destroyed 5
 
 
Assaulting units:
   8th Tank Regiment
   4th Tank Regiment
   14th Garrison Unit
   12th Garrison Unit
 
Defending units:
   3rd Australian Division
   4th Australian Division
   2/2nd Heavy AA Regiment
   2/16th Field Regiment
   3rd RAAF M/W Sqn

Yeah, THAT just happened! [&o]

[temagic]

BANZAI!!

[Cribtop]

Thanks for the kind words, Sqz and Temagic! Banzai indeed!

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

     Units destroyed 5
 
Defending units:
   3rd Australian Division
   4th Australian Division
   2/2nd Heavy AA Regiment
   2/16th Field Regiment
   3rd RAAF M/W Sqn

Holy cow! That's gotta hurt. Two Aussie divisions in a POW camp!

[Cribtop]

Yeah, that's what, a quarter of the AIF? Big loss of capability and probably no fun to rebuild, either. A nice win for the Empire.

[Cribtop]

One last comment on Broome. Notice how the garrison was so starved and bombed that it only took two second line garrison units and two small armored units to take the base. The Allied troops were in bad shape.

[Cribtop]

OK, I am getting close to the George (can't remember when they come but it's sometime this summer). I have two 30 point research factories humming along. I want to keep the R&D factories working on later models. What do I do and when do I do it? I have the factories set so they won't go into production, but when do I tell them to move to the next model?

[Mike Solli]

Allegedly there's a way to get the R&D factories to not convert to operational factories, but I'm too chicken to do it (whatever it is). I wait until the model is due the next month and then upgrade the R&D factories to the next model. You can then convert some operational factories to the new model on the 1st of the next month.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

OK, I am getting close to the George (can't remember when they come but it's sometime this summer). I have two 30 point research factories humming along. I want to keep the R&D factories working on later models. What do I do and when do I do it? I have the factories set so they won't go into production, but when do I tell them to move to the next model?

When faced with an R&D decision such as yours, it's the first thing I address when loading up a saved turn. If something happens that I didn't anticipate, I simply close the game and reopen without the risk of possibly having to redo a mountain of orders.

To answer your question though, as long as the R&D factories are 100% repaired it doesn't matter when you switch to the next model in the path. If you are happy with the current arrival date for that airframe simply switch to the next model you'd like to research. I'm already researching the Tojo IIc in October 42 prior to the Tojo IIb even entering production.

Just don't skip a model. If you go from A to C and skip B you will damage the factories. If fully repaired you should be able to select B then C and have no issues.

[Cribtop]

Awesome. Thanks. I did that with Tojo as well. My brain is top down and this game is often bottom up interface wise, so stuff like this doesn't stick with me easily.

[Cribtop]

Stared at the map while entering the last orders and had a brain wave. We may have an answer to the kamikaze shock attack from Shwebo. The last replay seems to confirm this might work and trap the enemy in the Mandalay hex for far longer. Stay tuned!