Naval Combat
The US has to decide on initiating combats. Neither the US nor the CW will initiate against the German subs - if the subs don't want to fight, they can't be forced to.
The US hasn't built up an advantage in the Bismarck Sea - it waiting to react further there if the Japanese fleet sails out, first. So it won't initiate there, either.
The Allies will thus initiate combats in the China Sea, the South China Sea, and the Marianas.
