Wild Sheep Chase - obvert (J) vs JocMeister (A)

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]4 - 5 February 1945[/font]
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[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]STRAT BOMBING:[/font] Big raid on Tokyo. Another decent day in the air with around 15-20 B-29s downed and due to the NF, flak and severe weather only 13k fires got started. That will still do series damage, but nothing like 30-40k, which we've seen here. I left all packages in the reports below to show how flak and the presence of fighters really diminish the hits. So there is hope for late war strat defenses, but you'll need a LOT of NF. About 35 shot down again during the night! [X(]

I'm having some new ideas about how to slow the process here, but I'm not sure yet they'll be effective. More on that soon.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]CHINA/INDOCHINA: [/font] Things are shaping up. Supply is now topped up in Hong Kong and Canton. Some organization of the many units streaming out of Indochina is taking shape. The blockade is building forts near Nanning.

Formosa has about 5k AV plus supporting troops now and should be tough. Naval bombardments are the difficulty for keep fields open, and there are no fields off the water, so that will prove tough, but I have a few ideas.

I've decided to try to send a trickle of supply occasionally to Cam Ran Bay with small xAKL from Singers. They'll probably not make it, but even a little would mean I could still have a CAP here, or even an occasional naval strike.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]LUZON: [/font] The crumbling is apparent now. The next DA will likely take Manila. There is no more to be done. Troops from all over Luzon have already been pulled, but this is a big POW camp mostly now. It may take a month more to mop up, but it depends on if he keeps everything here or moves on quickly with the big stuff.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]PHILOSOPHY OF DEFEAT: [/font] One of the things I keep wondering about was why did the Japanese keep fighting? The feeling of ineffectiveness is overwhelming at this point in the game. There isn't a point at which you feel anymore that things could turn toward any kind of result other than complete devastation. Sure there are little days of victory along the way, and I'm not about to stop playing, but I'm sure I don't do things as carefully as I once did and I know I'm not coming up with a lot of answers for how to slow the Allies further. Did they really imagine they could achieve anything other than complete unconditional defeat?

[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR February 4, 45
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Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5d-S Zero x 16
J1N1-S Irving x 24
J1N1-Sa Irving x 6
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah x 18

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 34

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5d-S Zero: 3 destroyed
J1N1-S Irving: 1 destroyed
J1N1-Sa Irving: 1 destroyed
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed, 31 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Manpower hits 3
Fires 1575

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 71 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5d-S Zero x 5
J1N1-S Irving x 8
J1N1-Sa Irving x 3
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah x 9

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5d-S Zero: 2 destroyed
J1N1-S Irving: 1 destroyed
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah: 2 destroyed [:(] Five B-29s took out about 7-8 planes here! (But no hits, so worth it, I guess.)

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5d-S Zero x 2
J1N1-S Irving x 3
J1N1-Sa Irving x 3
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah x 4

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 8

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5d-S Zero: 1 destroyed
J1N1-S Irving: 1 destroyed
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Manpower hits 2
Fires 3125

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 13 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 3

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 4

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 3 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 13 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 3

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 4

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 14 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 3

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 6

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 6 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 48 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 3

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 8

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 4 damaged

Manpower hits 2
Fires 3570

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 34 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 1

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
J1N1-Sa Irving: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 5760

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 21 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 4

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 3 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Manpower hits 3
Fires 7920

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 35 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 4

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 27 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 6

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 4 damaged

Manpower hits 5
Fires 8160

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 35 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 3 damaged

Manpower hits 2
Fires 9180

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 28 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 4

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 25 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 4

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 4 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 43 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 4

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 3
Fires 10710

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 30 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 6

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 6
Fires 13770

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on 1st Base Force, at 79,77 (Manila)

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 20
Liberator GR.VI x 17
B-24J Liberator x 6
B-17E Fortress x 4
B-17F Fortress x 7
B-24D Liberator x 6
B-24D1 Liberator x 7
B-24J Liberator x 168
B-25D1 Mitchell x 3
B-25G Mitchell x 11
B-25H Mitchell x 41
B-25J1 Mitchell x 14
B-25J11 Mitchell x 20
P-38J Lightning x 31
P-38L Lightning x 61
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 21
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 13
PBJ-1H Mitchell x 3
PBJ-1J Mitchell x 3

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 3 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 1 damaged
B-17F Fortress: 1 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 10 damaged
B-25G Mitchell: 1 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 8 damaged
B-25J11 Mitchell: 2 damaged
PBJ-1H Mitchell: 1 damaged
PBJ-1J Mitchell: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
575 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 102 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 7 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-25D1 Mitchell bombing from 12000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Ground combat at Tandjoengselor (68,92)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 5353 troops, 135 guns, 101 vehicles, Assault Value = 207

Defending force 3619 troops, 47 guns, 10 vehicles, Assault Value = 88

Allied adjusted assault: 98

Japanese adjusted defense: 187

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 2)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), preparation(-), fatigue(-)
experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
226 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 17 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 12 (1 destroyed, 11 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
113 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 22 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)
Vehicles lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Assaulting units:
147th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
112th Cavalry Regiment
131st Field Artillery Battalion
109th Tank Attack Regiment

Defending units:
455th Ind.Infantry Battalion
55th Naval Guard Unit
209th JAAF AF Bn
35th Fld AA Gun Co
134th JAAF AF Bn

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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR February 5, 45
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Morning Air attack on 2nd Air Fleet, at 79,76 (Clark Field)

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 3
Liberator GR.VI x 9
B-24J Liberator x 19
B-25D1 Mitchell x 3
B-25G Mitchell x 8
B-25H Mitchell x 7
P-38J Lightning x 22
P-38L Lightning x 13

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 1 damaged
Liberator GR.VI: 2 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 5 damaged
B-25D1 Mitchell: 2 damaged
B-25G Mitchell: 2 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 5 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
5 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-25D1 Mitchell bombing from 12000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on 56th Division, at 79,77 (Manila)

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 33
Liberator GR.VI x 16
B-24J Liberator x 3
B-17E Fortress x 3
B-17F Fortress x 7
B-24D Liberator x 3
B-24D1 Liberator x 11
B-24J Liberator x 166
B-25G Mitchell x 8
B-25H Mitchell x 28
B-25J1 Mitchell x 20
B-25J11 Mitchell x 6
P-38J Lightning x 31
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 27
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 13
PBJ-1H Mitchell x 3
PBJ-1J Mitchell x 3

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 5 damaged
Liberator GR.VI: 2 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 1 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 18 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 4 damaged
B-25J11 Mitchell: 1 damaged
PBJ-1H Mitchell: 1 damaged
PBJ-1J Mitchell: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
813 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 39 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 69 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
Vehicles lost 22 (2 destroyed, 20 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x PBJ-1D Mitchell bombing from 12000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb


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Reinforcements:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]98th Ind.Mixed Brigade arrives at Kumamoto
96th Ind.Mixed Brigade arrives at Tokyo
96th Division arrives at Keijo
8th RF Gun Battalion arrives at Tokyo
MTB G-456 arrives at Sapporo
801 Ku T-1 arrives at Takao
Yokosuka Ku T-1 arrives at Takao
38th Field AA Battalion arrives at Tokyo[/font]

Losses: none.

Ships Sunk:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]Previous report of sinking of SS Queenfish incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service[/font]
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[font="Trebuchet MS"]Movement all over the place right now. [/font]
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[koniu]

Don know how this will work for You with 32k sweep rule.
But in my test games against 350 CAP (mix P-47D25, F4U-1D, P-51D) with radar warning, when i was flying 70XP again 80XP pilots i usually win with 3,5:1.
Of course i was sweeping at 41,5k and normal range.
Add to that 100 more Ki-83 in 49 size units during the same phase and score can be batter because usually later waves score better results.
In my test P-47 and P-51 almost newer manage to get above 41,5k.

Things changing when P-47N and P-51H show up. Those monster in half of occasions manage to avoid dives. Against them Ki-83 is as good like earlier was Ki-84

[bigred]

Hi Obvert.
Would the allies be more efficient on night bombing if they could shell the target w/ ship bombardment first(from 15k)?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: bigred


Hi Obvert.
Would the allies be more efficient on night bombing if they could shell the target w/ ship bombardment first(from 15k)?

Tokyo? [X(]

If they shell Tokyo I think the loss of B-29s will be their least concern, and mine! [;)]

Luckily the bases on the HI are well protected, assuming the Allies could get past the wall of kamis and conventional attacks that would come at them, hitting Tokyo means going through forts with 28-32cm shore guns (can't remember now but they're large), plus a whole variety of lesser guns from 20cm through to 8cm DP guns. Plus in Yokohama there are 96 12.7cm DP guns!! [X(]

[paullus99]

Obvert - it is helps, the Japanese Military never admitted that they lost a single battle during the war......

[Bullwinkle58]

Most of it was culture, as we know. But they, unlike you, didn't know about the A-bomb. They didn't know the Soviets would declare in August. They didn't know when VE Day would be. In February 1945 they didn't know FDR was shortly going to be dead. They wanted to kill as many Americans as they could on the islands and hope we gave up and asked to negotiate.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Obvert - it is helps, the Japanese Military never admitted that they lost a single battle during the war......

Ha, yes. It is interesting. I guess in Scenario 1 you just get to go through it and realize more what it feels like when you DO care about losses to men and machines. Obviously in the game I pretty cavalier at times, but as I go forward I realize I'm probably much more concerned with losses than the actual Japanese military leaders, which is unbelievable.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Most of it was culture, as we know. But they, unlike you, didn't know about the A-bomb. They didn't know the Soviets would declare in August. They didn't know when VE Day would be. In February 1945 they didn't know FDR was shortly going to be dead. They wanted to kill as many Americans as they could on the islands and hope we gave up and asked to negotiate.

Yeah, I guess that hope is all wrapped in it, that finally there would have been one step too far for the US civilian opinion to reconcile and the war would have stopped. While they did do a lot of damage, their own losses were exponentially higher than the Allies, which is the part that's hard to take. The soldiers and sailors, but even more unconscionable at home in the fire bombings.

It's just interesting to go through the emotions of it for so long in a game. Usually when experience defeat it's quickly over and I move on. This just keeps on giving! [:(]

[LoBaron]

It was culture driven, centered on the premise that superior will to fight will always defeat numbers. This was much enhanced by lack of intel, lack of communications, and actively spread disinformation about defeats and enemy casualties to avoid loss of face.

That said, I agree it is tough for the Japanese player, but do not underestimate the strain on the Allied side. You now fight for victory in defeat. To be victorious you need to avoid autovictory past VJ day. If you implement this into your mindset, every delay and every destroyed enemy device move you closer to that goal.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: obvert

It's just interesting to go through the emotions of it for so long in a game. Usually when experience defeat it's quickly over and I move on. This just keeps on giving! [:(]

True. Which is why the genius of the game design has to step in for the 1945 Japanese. It doesn't matter how much you lose or how far you fall back. All that matters is the VPs and controlling events and investments and above all bending the time curve to survive juuuuuuust long enough to win the game.

Time is the immutable resource in AE.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

It was culture driven, centered on the premise that superior will to fight will always defeat numbers. This was much enhanced by lack of intel, lack of communications, and actively spread disinformation about defeats and enemy casualties to avoid loss of face.

That said, I agree it is tough for the Japanese player, but do not underestimate the strain on the Allied side. You now fight for victory in defeat. To be victorious you need to avoid autovictory past VJ day. If you implement this into your mindset, every delay and every destroyed enemy device move you closer to that goal.

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: obvert

It's just interesting to go through the emotions of it for so long in a game. Usually when experience defeat it's quickly over and I move on. This just keeps on giving! [:(]

True. Which is why the genius of the game design has to step in for the 1945 Japanese. It doesn't matter how much you lose or how far you fall back. All that matters is the VPs and controlling events and investments and above all bending the time curve to survive juuuuuuust long enough to win the game.

Time is the immutable resource in AE.

Thanks guys.

The VPs are not really a factor in this game after the concessions in China basically 'gave' the Allies back a huge chunk of permanently lost VPs by not conquering the remaining territory and killing off all unrestricted Chinese units. Not sure how may that would be, but it's a big chunk, maybe 5-7k differential? Maybe more?

If we had been playing for VPs from the beginning, as a goal of the game, then that Chinese Reserve would never have been given at that point and I would have had to let Jocke decide to either take the hit or end the game at that time, which was on the table.

I simply wanted to keep going, as I do now. This game isn't really about a perception of winning or losing for me, but simply about the process and the understanding of the game as a whole. I said that when I had a 3:1 VP count advantage in 42 and now when the slide toward the negative is picking up speed.

The defeat I talk about now is not a perception of victory or loss of the game, but the actual defeat of forces that have been long shepherded and planed for. My simple goal was to get to the end to see how it all plays out and to use al of the types I had R n Ded as well. It is about being ineffectual in play, not being able to determine positive outcomes anymore, which in game terms is a lot like a year long endgame taking 350 moves in a game of chess after being down a piece in the late middle game.

I know the Bull has a problem with the game outside of the design perameters, which include VPs and all, but we were new then and no one chose to enlighten us on the difficulties this might present later way back when we started. Either way, it would present some problems. Do I make that kami strike that could hit the Allied fleet but with the risk of losing 500-1000 planes? Seems like a potential VP disaster, especially with the beta changes. I am happy to not have to worry about that.

[LoBaron]

Obvert, as much as I agree that VP is not the sole measure of game progress and the the journey itself is of undeniable importance, you still need to formulate goals. At this point what goals are left to you if not surviving past the historical date of the capitulation of the Japanese Empire?
If you achieve that even in the face of what you conceded, even better.

If you refuse the above, what is your motivation to fight on, and what is your signal to lay down arms? How will you prevent the game from becoming meaningless?

[catwhoorg]

It is interesting to postulate about the relative positions of Japan in early 1945 and Britain in 1940.

Britain especially after the Battle of Britain, knew it could not be defeated by an invasion. (it is very dubious that Sealion would have ever worked to be fair, but without air supremacy it was doomed). Even then there were certainly whispers against 'fighting on alone', though to be fair with the Commonwealth at our backs, we were never truly 'alone'.

Japan in early 1945 had yet to feel the full force of the strategic bombing campaign (the first firebombing was Feb 1945 IIRC), and I am equally sure that they felt any amphibious landing on the home Islands was doomed to failure. Move forward to July, and its a very different picture. Japan stood alone, the hold on the resource area in tatters, China moving forward, even Okinawa, viewed as a home island having being taken over.

Yet they rejected the Potsdam declaration. Once Germany collapsed it is hard to see a way out for Japan that wasn't unconditional surrender, or complete destruction. Better to surrender earlier than later in that position.

[GreyJoy]

Erik...i think it's time to try some mass sweep (suicidal) + Kamikaze as soon as they advance any further. Think that, targetting with sweeps one of his minor bases, you should avoid his best CAP and, tweekening (sp!?) the range of the kami sentais, you may be able to inflict some interesting losses, thus slowing him down...a bit at least.

Hold fast my friend!

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

Obvert, as much as I agree that VP is not the sole measure of game progress and the the journey itself is of undeniable importance, you still need to formulate goals. At this point what goals are left to you if not surviving past the historical date of the capitulation of the Japanese Empire?
If you achieve that even in the face of what you conceded, even better.

If you refuse the above, what is your motivation to fight on, and what is your signal to lay down arms? How will you prevent the game from becoming meaningless?

There are definitely some goals in mind for me here, and I'm working hard toward those. It's the first time through this part though so I'm continually adjusting expectations and the goals I thought I could reach even a year ago in game now seem pretty unattainable. Some of that is due to a few mistakes, some due to good aggressive play by my opponent, and a lot simply due to the conditions of the late war. It's hard to understand late war Allied power until you go through the process of trying to slow them down.

So my particular motivation revolves around a goal of fighting past VJ day. Being Scenario 1 I think any kind of ability to fight on after that date is a positive result. Another goal/hope is to really let it all fly at some point soon! A lot of stuff has been building up for some time and now the Allies are getting close to the power centers. Lets see what we can do! This will be one of the first games to see late war action using the betas, so I hope to find ways to make kamis and other combined strikes work relatively effectively.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Erik...i think it's time to try some mass sweep (suicidal) + Kamikaze as soon as they advance any further. Think that, targetting with sweeps one of his minor bases, you should avoid his best CAP and, tweekening (sp!?) the range of the kami sentais, you may be able to inflict some interesting losses, thus slowing him down...a bit at least.

Hold fast my friend!

Thanks GJ.

Yep. There are opportunities arriving soon. Some new tools coming online as well. [;)]

[LoBaron]

I understand that, and as I already said setting such goals is part of the game. Still, the classic late war Allied game is about achieving autovictory. If you ask your opponent about his goals, this for sure will be part of the answer you will receive.
Also, surviving past VJ day has no meaning, because only in very few games the game will end prematurely with every single last Japanese unit capable of fighting wiped off the map. And thats the only other (besides autovictory) point where objectively an assessment can be made about the term 'survive'.
So, not using autovictory or a complete annihilation as reference means the game outcome will be a purely subjective touchy-feely stuff where you might get into trouble to come to a common agreement.

Please note that I am not trying to force in line with my (or Bullwinkle's) opinion, I am just pointing out potential problems of your approach to the topic.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

I understand that, and as I already said setting such goals is part of the game. Still, the classic late war Allied game is about achieving autovictory. If you ask your opponent about his goals, this for sure will be part of the answer you will receive.
Also, surviving past VJ day has no meaning, because only in very few games the game will end prematurely with every single last Japanese unit capable of fighting wiped off the map. And thats the only other (besides autovictory) point where objectively an assessment can be made about the term 'survive'.
So, not using autovictory or a complete annihilation as reference means the game outcome will be a purely subjective touchy-feely stuff where you might get into trouble to come to a common agreement.

Please note that I am not trying to force in line with my (or Bullwinkle's) opinion, I am just pointing out potential problems of your approach to the topic.

The late war Allied game may be in general about auto-victory, but from the beginning of this one neither my opponent or I have been interested in VPs as a determining factor in ending or continuing the game, or as a measure of victory or loss. I've received no indication that this has changed, but even if it has for him, I'm not really concerned with my opponent changing his thinking and being focused on AV now in 45. It's not a measure for me for the reasons stated in previous posts.

You mention game 'outcome.' By this I assume you mean winning and losing. Maybe you mean something different, like ending vs continuing. In either case, not having VPs aren't really a concern. If he wants to stop, we'll stop. No problems.

So there is no touchy-feely if you're not concerned with outcome vs process. I'm only concerned with process, and I have personal goals. This game takes place over such a vast scale of time that as we learn I'm sure our entire philosophy can change. Deciding to play for process rather than points means that ultimately we chose not to play for victory vs defeat. That is very freeing and lets me go against decisions that would be counter productive in VP terms but which have the potential to both teach me a lot about the game and to make it a lot more fun to play as well as to continue with strategies I've developed or planned for years.

It's probably hard for some people to deal with, as competitiveness comes into play, but it's not so tough for me. I think the developers did a great job setting up the VP system, and now I would start a game with that in mind, knowing how the whole war goes for the Japanese side, but that doesn't change my thinking about this one.

We've not spoken about VPs in a long while so I'm sure there is the possibility that Jocke is very interested in them and his progress there. It's always an interesting indication of how things are going, but ultimately I'm not interested in win/lose thinking in this game based on it's history.

[Barb]

Well I would say that the winning/losing should be decided by Japanese ability to resist - as far as Japanese player feels he can resist and see any meaning in continuing resistance, the game should not end.
It is the same situation as if the Japanese player succeed in sinking all allied carriers and half of the fleet in 1942 - Allied player must feel confident he can continue even after such setback - if he feels he is not able, there is a "towel in the ring" thing... However I still think that with all the stuff allies get this should not be customary...

Anyway the line between continuing or not is pretty wide - a confident player can play through many adversities, while one that is not is prone to throw the towel pretty quickly after just some small unfortunate incident...

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Barb

Well I would say that the winning/losing should be decided by Japanese ability to resist - as far as Japanese player feels he can resist and see any meaning in continuing resistance, the game should not end.
It is the same situation as if the Japanese player succeed in sinking all allied carriers and half of the fleet in 1942 - Allied player must feel confident he can continue even after such setback - if he feels he is not able, there is a "towel in the ring" thing... However I still think that with all the stuff allies get this should not be customary...

Anyway the line between continuing or not is pretty wide - a confident player can play through many adversities, while one that is not is prone to throw the towel pretty quickly after just some small unfortunate incident...

I agree, and in fact this is an example of a game where the Allied player was strongly considering throwing in the towel several times early, but to his credit fought on to bring this toward the very interesting situation it's in now.

Again though there is a mention of winning/losing. As explained above that is simply not interesting to me in this particular game. There are no should be or shouldn't be decisions. We stated from the beginning we're playing without the VP system in place, and therefore these considerations are irrelevant.