You can have all of the oil you want but if your HI is gone it's not going to matter much. One way or another we're going down gentlemen, so get ready and take some stuff out as you go!
Yep, I often laugh at how much effort we put into production and the economy. The debate about increasing LI or not, expanding HI, and how much we focus on keeping the oil fields pumping and under our control and yet it all means squat if the factories are in ruins and the supply has gone up in smoke.
I often think this is the biggest reason to go hell bent with Japan during the first two years. Why play a conservative Japan and set yourself up for years of being ground into dust. Oh wait, that's exactly how I play.
[:D][:D][:D]
Deep belly laugh. Time for a scotch.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
Right, I have spent most of the evening trying to plan the defense of the DEI, and have a few questions for you, guys.
As for the southern Marianas, what do you think would be the amount of troops I need (per island) to make it a bit "too frightening"? A reinforced division? two? more? I mean, there are four islands to defend, which can be built, and have interlocking airfields, and I can even use KB as a support (provided I still have KB).
How do you use your CVE? Mine have a strong tendency to collect rust in port, which is probably a bit silly.
In preparation for that fateful 1945, when I get my industry bombed, do you think it makes sense to accumulate naval/merchant points? Right now, I am following Pax' suggestion, and hoarding ARM and VEH, since it will allow me to get my reinforcements even if my industry is destroyed. I can do that for airframes, to a certain extent (being PDU off, stocks of old frames will be useless, I need my pools to be filled with the planes my squadrons use when the industry is destroyed). But what about the shipyards? Having ship points would allow reinforcements to arrive, but then, do I really need ships in 1945?
That is the key; even with no HI and LI factories, AC, ENG, VEH, and ARM will still build. That's what happens when you run out of fuel in mid '45 ... you then run on what you have stockpiled. 4M HI will run the IJ economy at full tilt for 1.5 years. I mean 2K AC/month production plus ground replacements. You should have upwards of 6M supply in your empire for the same period, and that allows everything else to work. This is the simply key to IJ as far as economics goes. If you don't have this cushion of HI and supply, then you have to be able to keep the oil flowing to IJ until game end.
The allies will have overwhelming superiority in everything beginning VE day, 6/45. They start getting +250/month Stang/Bolts and +200/month 4E's. Coupled with the Navy that already owns the seas, it is a tough thing. And then the SOV activate. If CHI is out of the game, I have been able to hold the SOV outside of Korean penninsula. And if you have an HR that no allied 4E's are allowed in SOV conquered territory, then they cannot reach the HI that way.
I have only seen three AAR's where the IJ has been able to get into '45 with the oil still flowing, and in all three the allied players have been successfully goaded into poor decisions. However, in two of them, the games were a bit skewed because of some uncommon HR's. I'm not suggesting any of the HR's are poor, just that they are not common ones. This leaves only one AAR to be successful so far ... not a good track record. Meaning, it doesn't appear to be a good choice for the IJ to bet that they will still have oil flowing from the DEI in '45.
As for the southern Marianas, what do you think would be the amount of troops I need (per island) to make it a bit "too frightening"? A reinforced division? two? more? I mean, there are four islands to defend, which can be built, and have interlocking airfields, and I can even use KB as a support (provided I still have KB).
I think the Marianas, like all islands, are not defensible. The allies can take anything they want. I take the tactic of make it a trap. There are a lot of ways to do that. I think PzB's tactic is as good as any. Make the choice for the allies for them, then counter hard. PzB was a master at that. He seemed to always be able to get his opponent to attack at the place of HIS choosing, where he was able to retaliate hard. He crushed, IIRC, 3 allied amphib op's in his last game. Amazing. Nemo is pretty good at this as well ... he's all about the mind game portion ...
ORIGINAL: fcharton
How do you use your CVE? Mine have a strong tendency to collect rust in port, which is probably a bit silly.
Each one is the eqivalent of one more fighter or bomber group. I absolutely use them in every major counter against the allies. Usually, I have them full of fighters for CAP. Sometimes though, later if GRACE is available, I have them behind the KB and they are able to add another hundred or more Grace to the attack. There are times they have been the difference in the outcome for me.
When the KB sorties, I have everything out with them. CVL, CVE, all of it. The CS's, I keep at least one as a CS. With NORM, the search arc/range is just too good. And it doesn't alert the allies that the KB is around ... I also use a lot of AV's in the same role ... war is about intel, and the IJ can only get it with recon and search. I do a LOT of both.
But what about the shipyards? Having ship points would allow reinforcements to arrive, but then, do I really need ships in 1945?
Truth told, I hardly build any Merchant at all the entire game. AFter the first week where I build up a couple 1000 pts into the pool, I then shut off most of my MSY for the rest of the game.
And for NSY, once the CV's are built, I'm about done with them too. I build DD, SC,E, CV. I do NOT build CL or non-Glen SS. Sometimes I build the Musashi, but not always. Anyway, by mid 43, it is the same, I have most of the NSY shut down. The HI savings are considerable.
I convert a lot of my merchant fleet to AR, AV, AS, AD, AG, AM, AMc, CMc, ACM, ... but most of it sits where I can drain it of fuel. They just end up as allied VP's when their bombers can reach the port. I wish I could scuttle/de-commission them instead. Re-use all of that steel and engines. Build more E's out of them! Think about it, take all of those xAKL's and convert that steel and engine into an E. Even 2 for 1 I would do it. [:D]
I am very careful of my convoys, all routes are heavily invested with ASW. No ship ever travels alone, and escorts are heavy. I lose very few to SS. Granted, my opponent is not the most skilled SS tactics, but from observing the AAR's, my tactics seem to work just as effectively in PBEM's.
Historically, the IJ was careless with it merchant fleet. I'm not. They ignored the SS, I focus on it.
Waiting for a turn from my opponent for the first time ever, I hope nothing is wrong. January 30th – February 1st 1943
I am pushing turns around, while planning my defenses. Spence mentioned in a recent email that the Allies are out of planes. He seems to be intent on waiting to rebuild his pools before he attacks again. This is excellent news: a lull is just what I need now.
Done with the mines
Coastal AM swept Akyab and the bases mined from the air last week. So far, aerial mining seems unefficient at this stage of the war, perhaps because my opponent doesn’t have enough bombers. Mines seem to be too few to have a significant chance to hit, and are easily swept. I need more AMc, though.
Saumlaki
I am pretty certain this is the next Allied target. It might prove a little more difficult, as it is in range from Ambon and Lautem, but this group of islands (Babar, Saumlaki, …) are dead meat anyway. The best I can do it to look fightening enough, and hope he loses ships there.
On the 31st, Dauntlesses bombed the port, from pretty high (around 20 000 feet). I am not sure I understand the rationale of it. As they flew unescorted, I will try and set a CAP trap there, a couple Dauntless are a good catch.
Night fighters
I just received the Endo Detachment, my first night fighter squadron. I based them in Manadalay, and ordered them to CAP Katha which the Allies have began bombing again. They didn’t seem to make a difference. Let’s try more.
4E watch
On the 29th of December, I had made a list of the 4E bombers reported shot down in Tracker.
Here is the update for this month:
That’s 43 4E shot down, while my opponent produced 34 this month. He probably has about 290 of them left (in play or in pools). I need to do better next month, as the Allies will be producing 52 4E.
KB
I am planning to concentrate my carriers. So far, I had detached two fleet and one light carrier (and a CVE) for action in the DEI, but they didn’t achieve much, the area is swarming with submarines, and it looks like my opponent is looking for a carrier battle. As a result, I want to get every thing packed in one place, try to operate within land based aircraft range, and try to give him a reverse Midway if he really wants one.
I will not invite battle, but I think I can have a decent opportunity if Spence grows careless.
Empire building, Air HQ
While planning my defenses, I had the pleasure to discover that I am no longer short on Air HQ. I don’t have lots of them; but I think I can cover most of my outer perimeter. The general idea is to deploy them in forward positions, all around the border, and base enough Betties there to discourage any foray. They won’t be able to defeat a proper invasion, but should be sufficient to make my opponent wonder before launching one. As usual, the goal is more to delay than to prevent.
As of now, here is the plan. I already have two HQ in Magwe and Rangoon, covering the Burmese shores, one in Langsa for northern Malaysia and Sumatra, and one in Singapore for central Sumatra. I will add one in Oosthaven for southern Sumatra and northern Java, and have one already in Surabaya. Koepang also has one.
In the Celebes, a large air HQ is moving to Manado, which should be my hub in the area. Sorong will have a flotilla HQ.
Rabaul, Roi Namur and the southern Marianas already have one, as have the Kuriles.
This leaves one yet unaffected, which might either go to Kendari or Macassar, to complete the defense of the Celebes, or to Davao to provide a second line, or maybe to Wewak, in case Rabaul gets turned.
The war is back, one turn had been lost over the ocean, and we were both waiting February 2nd 1943
A perfect day in the air
Today, we shot down 36 allied planes for 21 ours (Tojos mostly). Over Chittagong, our Tojos swept 9 Spitfires Vc and as many Warhawks. Fighters from Rabaul swept Kiriwina island, and found Kittyhawks and Wildcats on CAP, we shot down 8 F4F and 5 Kitties. And finally, we got three dauntlesses over Saumlaki.
It is a small victory, but such losses are very helpful while my opponent is delaying his offensive to rebuild his pools. He is producing about 300 fighters per month, today’s losses are three days of production.
Tomorrow, I am trying to catch more Spits over Chittagong. The rest of my fighters are resting, before they come back in a couple of days.
In the Solomons, escorted bombers from Ndeni attacked Lunga and Kirakira. Both bases have largely been evacuated, and there is little to destroy there, but this might be the prelude to an invasion. I don’t want to commit my carriers there, I have no LBA, and he has some in Ndeni… But a couple surface groups might manage to sink a few more ships, Taberfane style.
Port Blair
We bombarded the base today, and scored a good number of hits on the troops there. The garrison has not been supplied in a long time, and I suspect they are suffering. With a lof of Betties now based around Rangoon and Magwe, I suspect the next run will be a bloody affair, and so we stand a good chance of starving those troops.
Night Naval bombardment of Port Blair at 46,58 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!
Allied aircraft
no flights
But it didn’t prevent enemy bombers from flying. I really wonder whether moonlight plays a role in this game. But anyway, 4E were over Rabaul, and Ambon, and tried were intercepted. I am using A6M2 in that role. I have lots of them (I really flunked that part of air production), and they seem to work just as well (or badly) as any other model.
Night flak seems to work a little better in the beta version, though. We took down four B17-E and one B-17F. 5 five 4E over a night is a good result.
And there was a morning
Liberators II visited Bangkok and mined the harbor this morning. I will try to rebase some Nicks there, over such long ranges I suspect damaged 4E are more susceptible to crashing on their return leg, so we might be lucky tomorrow.
British 4E would be a good catch, as the Allies have very few. I shot down 10 of 32 Liberators II received so far.
Over Boela, we finished clearing the minefield, but our sweepers were found by enemy Dauntlesses, and we lost two out of three. I had Rufes in the base, but forgot to put them on CAP. Hate that!
Supplies
The flow is now all right. Singapore has 130 000 tons, Burma is keeping around 50 000 (I have a convoy arriving in a few turns). I can’t really complain.
Liberators II visited Bangkok and mined the harbor this morning. I will try to rebase some Nicks there, over such long ranges I suspect damaged 4E are more susceptible to crashing on their return leg, so we might be lucky tomorrow.
I think it has been commented that there is no interception of mining attacks.
Aircraft Attacking:
10 x Liberator II laying Mk 13 Mine from 6000 feet *
CAP engaged:
282 Ku S-1 with A6M2 Zero (0 airborne, 4 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 11000 , scrambling fighters to 3000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 6 minutes
264th Sentai with Ki-45 KAIa Nick (0 airborne, 5 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 2 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters between 6000 and 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 20 minutes
Thanks for posting that! I could have sworn that Michael once said that it was fixed but I was unable to find that anywhere so I held back on commenting. [:)]
Aircraft Attacking:
10 x Liberator II laying Mk 13 Mine from 6000 feet *
CAP engaged:
282 Ku S-1 with A6M2 Zero (0 airborne, 4 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 11000 , scrambling fighters to 3000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 6 minutes
264th Sentai with Ki-45 KAIa Nick (0 airborne, 5 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 2 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters between 6000 and 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 20 minutes
very nice to see that this is working ... Michael is great! [&o][&o][&o]
A new moon, but allied bombers don’t seem to mind. Kunming was visited by Liberators II, for no damage, Dili by B24-D, a few hits were scored on the runway and a B24 was shot down, Kalemyo by B-25C, a few hits on the airbase, and Madang by Havocs, which had a very hard time against the flak. Three A20 were shot down.
It might be the moon, the beta, and GG die rolls, but I have the feeling that over the recent days, night bombing has become less of a walk in the park.
The hour when the Libs come in
I already split the beans about this one, so, here again
Morning Air attack on Bangkok , at 56,62
Weather in hex: Partial cloud
Raid detected at 77 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 28 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 5
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 7
Allied aircraft
Liberator II x 11
No Japanese losses
Allied aircraft losses
Liberator II: 1 destroyed, 10 damaged
Aircraft Attacking:
10 x Liberator II laying Mk 13 Mine from 6000 feet *
Three Liberators gone, a month production, for a grand total of 13, I can’t complain.
Honestly, there were quite a few favorable factors here : enemy operating at very long range (Dacca to Bangkok, or something like that), early detection, good altitude, decent weather… But this confirms that Nicks (and Tonies to a lesser extent) are my 4E killers.
Meanwhile, we shot down four Hurricanes over Chittagong. Four fighters, four 4E, and a handful of others, a good day for the empire.
The milkman is back
A task force was detected one hex away from Port Blair. This should be the monthly supply run, and we will try to make it costly. A fast cruiser squadron was dispatched from Singapore, sweeps have been ordered from Trinkat and Tavoy, and Rangoon is stacked with Betties and torpedoes.
I am expecting a few RN cruisers, and cargoes, and fighters too, so it won’t be as easy as I’d hope, but we’re getting better at interdicting the Andamans, and this means a lot of starving Brits.
A new moon, but allied bombers don’t seem to mind. Kunming was visited by Liberators II, for no damage, Dili by B24-D, a few hits were scored on the runway and a B24 was shot down, Kalemyo by B-25C, a few hits on the airbase, and Madang by Havocs, which had a very hard time against the flak. Three A20 were shot down.
It might be the moon, the beta, and GG die rolls, but I have the feeling that over the recent days, night bombing has become less of a walk in the park.
I'm setting up a Downfall mod to test night bombing in again. Haven't tested it in a few years. My first few runs are agreeing with your observations, it does appear to have been reined in ... looking promising.
Aircraft Attacking:
10 x Liberator II laying Mk 13 Mine from 6000 feet *
CAP engaged:
282 Ku S-1 with A6M2 Zero (0 airborne, 4 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 11000 , scrambling fighters to 3000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 6 minutes
264th Sentai with Ki-45 KAIa Nick (0 airborne, 5 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 2 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters between 6000 and 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 20 minutes
very nice to see that this is working ... Michael is great! [&o][&o][&o]
What version are You playing. When i last tested it under beta 1123p it was impassible to intercept mining mission.
ORIGINAL: koniu
What version are You playing. When i last tested it under beta 1123p it was impassible to intercept mining mission.
Hi Koniu,
We are 1123r, I strongly suspect the transport intercept fix in version q...
25/08/2013: 1123q -Units could retreat from combat without triggering pursuit
Units with static squad/engineer devices can't retreat
Tweaked transport intercept for messages Fixed CAP with DTs in transport intercept Tweak Naval bombardment sometimes stopped short range ships from firing if longer range ones present
09/09/2013: 1123r - Show '0' port if ships sighted
Ships unable to repair should be able to go to crew-repairs (as long as no other limits)
Fixed AI issue with resource movement by TF
Increased default cadre size to 5% for non-Chinese units to alleviate auto-disband on rebuilding units
I just run some test using downfall scenario. Game version beta 23s.
400 fighters in Tokyo don`t have single shot to incoming B-29[:(]
It still broken, only damage was from flak
The Allied losses appear as A2A in my case. Was it at night or during the day? I've noticed night minelaying is even harder to catch than night bombing.
For the rest, I suspect that interception is decided by one or several prior die rolls. This seems to be the norm in the air model (and all Grigsby games, I'm told).
In other words, to intercept the mining run, you need first to pass some detection die roll, then to pass some scrambling roll, and then perhaps another morale roll or three. If you miss any of those, no interception happens. If you pass all of them, interception takes place, and once it happens it tend to be bloody (to compensate for the low chance of it happening). In my opinion, this is the way the air model (and maybe other parts of the game) works. I think it is wrong, because it tends to be too deterministic, results in extreme results, and sometimes favors concentration of force against any other aspects of the game, but it is at the heart of the system, and we play the model we have.
At night in my game the mining happened once at Palembang where there were a decent number of NF, and they didn't touch the 100+ planes that came in. When night bombing there the flak and NF caused a very high loss rate among the same planes, but with mining it did not.
While I was pretty riled up for a bit, I soon realized that there are real world considerations that could explain not intercepting them at night. Assuming you are getting a radar reading of a large force coming in (which with Japanese radar is not always a given), and you send up the night fighters to 10-15 miles out from the probable target, but the B-29s stop short by 20-30 miles and drop mines in the river mouth and surrounding areas. Flak doesn't reach there and the NF would have to vector in without airborne radar (at that time).
The daytime mine dropping is different, and hopefully the game does make it easier to intercept.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
