A Lemon rises in the East: SqzMyLemon (J) vs. JocMeister (A)

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Erkki

Even against bombers the b model performs identically to a.

I don't want my Tojo's going near bombers. In my Allied game they are shredded by the 4E's. Good to know though about the gun value. I guess when it comes right down to it I'll get the better aircraft advanced sooner anyway, that is what is important.

[SqzMyLemon]

The next turn is away so no action until Wednesday most likely. I'll enjoy the break in Phoenix and I hear the temperature there has been a balmy 25 degrees centigrade or so all this week. Considering we've had our first snow fall and ice of the winter season already, sitting poolside with a good book sounds fantastic over the next few days. Now if I can only find a good model store there life would be grand. [8D]

[SqzMyLemon]

Quick question. I posted in the tech forum, but Jocke's the only one who has responded so far. It appears My other PBEM has been hit by the synch bug and we had some crazy results and completely bogus actions shown to have happened on the Allied side which in fact did not.

So am I correct in assuming there is no fix? Does redoing the turn help? According to Jocke, the Japanese combat report is officially what occurred during the turn so if I can look at that then I know what happened? My concern is basing my orders for the next turn on what really happened and not what I was shown to have happened.

Hopefully I can get this sorted out before tonight so I can get the next turn off before I leave on my trip.

[witpqs]

The best I know, which is certainly not complete, is that it's only a replay bug. It's my understanding that the combat report file should still be accurate. I recall on poster (forgot who) saying that in their case the combat file was at variance with his opponents. Even if so that might be more unusual. No matter what, of course, in-game is the key. There is only one actual turn save file, so you do not have to worry about the game splitting off into two different directions. And because the next turn depends only upon that one, single turn save file, each sync bug occurrence is a one-time event. Even if you get it several turns in a row, they are not feeding each other or anything like that.

In my current 1x1 we have had a few sync bugs but only a few (I forget the exact number) and we just kept going, no big deal, they solve themselves.

Obviously you need to look around in-game more carefully to see the state of things when you know that a sync bug has occurred. But they are rare, with the great majority of the bugs causing them having been solved.

One thing you can do is give Michael the turn file that resulted in a sync bug when the turn resolution was run on the Japanese side, and the combat replay file that it generated. The reports that it made would be a good idea too. He might be able to find and fix whatever caused this one.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

The best I know, which is certainly not complete, is that it's only a replay bug. It's my understanding that the combat report file should still be accurate. I recall on poster (forgot who) saying that in their case the combat file was at variance with his opponents. Even if so that might be more unusual. No matter what, of course, in-game is the key. There is only one actual turn save file, so you do not have to worry about the game splitting off into two different directions. And because the next turn depends only upon that one, single turn save file, each sync bug occurrence is a one-time event. Even if you get it several turns in a row, they are not feeding each other or anything like that.

In my current 1x1 we have had a few sync bugs but only a few (I forget the exact number) and we just kept going, no big deal, they solve themselves.

Obviously you need to look around in-game more carefully to see the state of things when you know that a sync bug has occurred. But they are rare, with the great majority of the bugs causing them having been solved.

One thing you can do is give Michael the turn file that resulted in a sync bug when the turn resolution was run on the Japanese side, and the combat replay file that it generated. The reports that it made would be a good idea too. He might be able to find and fix whatever caused this one.

Thanks for an explanation witpqs. I've let my opponent know and suggested he post the turn and reports in the tech forum as you suggested. I've asked to get the Japanese combat report for comparison. We'll either wait to see if the bug can be fixed by michaelm or take our chances and move forward understanding it could occur again over the next few turns. Thanks again.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Erkki

Hey again from the shadows Joseph. [:)]

The Ki-44-IIc is much better than IIb: same performance yeh but the c has armor rating of 1 instead of 0 and has 4 * 12,7mm HMGs where the b has just 2 ct HMGs and 2 40 mm caseless ammo wing cannons with an accuracy of 8(!!!!), hence the gun value which has nothing to do with how good the armament is in practice. Even against bombers the b model performs identically to a.

+1

I don't build the 'b' model, I just advance to the 'c' model like you did Joseph. I think you did exactly the right thing for all the reasons that Erkki states.

PS: Erkki: Welcome BACK!

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

I don't build the 'b' model, I just advance to the 'c' model like you did Joseph. I think you did exactly the right thing for all the reasons that Erkki states.

I lucked out then. Essentially coverted over once the IIb advanced maybe a month or two, can't remember though.

On a different note, I've been crunching some supply numbers and wonder if these make sense to you. At the start of Nov. 1942 I have 1.5 million supply in the Home Islands. If I maintain producing 20736k/day of supply in Japan through until the end of 1943 that will produce 8,709,120 of supply. If I continue to stockpile a minimum of 8k/day over this time period (which is an estimate on the low side, I'm currently banking over 10k supply/day) that would add 3,360,000 to the stockpile in the Home Islands bringing the total to 4,860,000 allowing the other 5,349,120 to be used for fort construction, R&D and troop usage throughout the Empire. I have roughly 885 R&D left to repair, so not a huge chunk considering the cost will be spread out over the next two years and amounts to only 42 days of total supply production. I think that gives me plenty of supply to maintain the Empire for 43 at least and build a sizable stockpile in Japan. Are these numbers realistic?

I see Burma, China and the air war as my major supply drain moving forward for at least the next 6-8 months, less if I'm able to knock China out by May 43. If I maintain my economic discipline over the next year and a half I think having 6,000,000 supply in the Home Islands is achievable. What're your thoughts?

[obvert]

That sounds great. I'd have to see what I had before strat bombing, but I think it was in the 4M territory. I'm at 2M now in 2/45, and production is down to around 18k a day globally I think. [X(]

What I would give for even another 500k right now.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

I don't build the 'b' model, I just advance to the 'c' model like you did Joseph. I think you did exactly the right thing for all the reasons that Erkki states.

I lucked out then. Essentially coverted over once the IIb advanced maybe a month or two, can't remember though.

On a different note, I've been crunching some supply numbers and wonder if these make sense to you. At the start of Nov. 1942 I have 1.5 million supply in the Home Islands. If I maintain producing 20736k/day of supply in Japan through until the end of 1943 that will produce 8,709,120 of supply. If I continue to stockpile a minimum of 8k/day over this time period (which is an estimate on the low side, I'm currently banking over 10k supply/day) that would add 3,360,000 to the stockpile in the Home Islands bringing the total to 4,860,000 allowing the other 5,349,120 to be used for fort construction, R&D and troop usage throughout the Empire. I have roughly 885 R&D left to repair, so not a huge chunk considering the cost will be spread out over the next two years and amounts to only 42 days of total supply production. I think that gives me plenty of supply to maintain the Empire for 43 at least and build a sizable stockpile in Japan. Are these numbers realistic?

I see Burma, China and the air war as my major supply drain moving forward for at least the next 6-8 months, less if I'm able to knock China out by May 43. If I maintain my economic discipline over the next year and a half I think having 6,000,000 supply in the Home Islands is achievable. What're your thoughts?

Very much how I plan it and you should then have sufficient supply to wage war in 45/46.

Just remember that supply and fuel, unlike HI, are both susceptible to wastage and bombing. So, you need to store both in places where the Rail network is really good ( you need to disperse both to protect against bombing) AND where your ground troops are relatively stable in disposition (moving units caused demand to change and puts supply into motion causing wastage. Ditto ships and fuel.) So, there is a balancing act to maintain. It isn't that hard, the easiest way is to plan your defense in '42, get the units in place then, and leave them. Yes, new units arrive, but you already know where they go, so the move right away and your disruption is minimal.

Finally, and this is overlooked by a lot of players, a major supply consumption are replacements. Replacements use not only LC*ARM to replace devices but also LC*supply. So, to replace an entire ID costs about 15,000 ARM and 15,000 supply. You want to know this because in late '45 after the SOV activate you will routinely have 4 - 8 ID's pulling max replacements every turn. That will be another ~25K supply/month drain above what you are already using => ~3M supply for the last 12 months of the war.

The allies will use even MORE, but as you might recall one allied player posting that he has +100M supply in early '45. The allies are drowning in supply.

Anyway, supply and HI are what drive the economy. The devs got the economy in the game so well done. Kudo's to the entire team from Gary to Michael.

[&o][&o][&o]

[SqzMyLemon]

Arrived home yesterday from Phoenix. I let Jocke know I was available last night and there's now a turn in my inbox. The war resumes tonight after I get home from work. [8D]

[SqzMyLemon]

Slight delay on my end. Some R&D factories that I wasn't expecting to convert over to production for a few days yet that I wanted to keep as R&D did just that last turn. I was a little unsure what would happen with the month end and a high R&D percentage. Lesson learned. However, this kind of screwed up my aircraft production plans and I asked Jocke if we could redo the turn in order to change the factories to the next research model rather than have them convert. Luckily for me Jocke didn't do a big reorganization while I was away and agreed to redo his turn. Whew!

Lots of Allied activity building up Australian bases. I'm guessing Jocke will make a move against New Guinea before too long under the cover of LBA. I'm not sure how I want to defend the theatre. Manus is my must hold base, more so than Rabaul which I've not built up much. I'm concentrating on bases along the northern coast of New Guinea down to Lae as my main defence. I chose to not develop the Solomons this time around as a move on New Guinea cuts these troops off anyway. However, I'll be more than happy if the Allies choose to move against Tulagi and area.

I'm starting to think a spoiling attack on my part may be feasible. I'm going to wait upon further developments, but I may try a late move somewhere once Jocke starts committing troops and aircraft to the region. I might be able to start some kind of attritional losses on the Allies. I also need to shut the door on a possible move towards Darwin from the east which would spell big trouble for me. Horn Island has been under Allied control all game and will most likely be a thorn in my side once Allied LBA can cover the base allowing reinforcement and expansion.

I wish I'd figure out what I want to do in early 42 rather than always seeming to have an epiphany late 42 and then scrambling to get things prepared. [8|]

Anyway, I'll re-run the turn tonight and then the game should start moving forward once again.

[obvert]

Usually if you catch it on the first few days, (not sure how many but for me it has worked even three days after conversion to production) you can just change them back to production.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Usually if you catch it on the first few days, (not sure how many but for me it has worked even three days after conversion to production) you can just change them back to production.

You mean back to R&D not production right? I didn't know this at the time so thought a rerun of the turn the safest option. Good to know for the future.

The two factories in question were R&D'ing the Oscar. I'm good to go on the Ki-43-IIIa now and the IIb will be available for production within days. I'll then switch over my two existing IIa factories.

I finally have a Jack R&D factory fully repaired. Another two are still repairing.

[SqzMyLemon]

A quiet turn.

China:

Just bombing and moving to try and cut troops off reaching Burma from Chengtu. I think I'm going miss my chance as recon indicates Chengtu only has three enemy units, that means the bulk are moving west along the secondary road. I'm two days away from launching a river assault to interdict this route, but it may be too late. I'll see what recon indicates next turn.

Baker Island:

A small four ship enemy TF was spotted. I may try and interdict with a small SCTF.

Thoughts:

I continue to reinforce and dig in. I'm tweaking production but armament and vehicle points are flat out at 600 and 300 points respectively.

Another fuel TF has reached Japan. So far I'm holding levels constant, but haven't been able to increase the stockpile. I haven't optimized my TF's yet and I'm still sending a fair amount of fuel forward in anticipation of some naval action in the near future.

Supply gain last turn in Japan was 11k. If I can continue to save at this rate I will have 2 million supply in the Home Islands by the end of 1942.

Fort construction continues and many rear areas are close to reaching level 6. I can then shift to strengthening the next series of positions. Now I just need the troops to fill out the defences. I'm looking at Formosa and it's going to be hard to hold. Mostly clear terrain and all vulnerable to naval bombardment. I think I need to concentrate on using the Philippines as my main buffer as I'm not confident that Formosa can be adequately defended. I'll have to build up the coastal bases in China to allow LBA to cover against eventual invasion.

I'm putting a lot of effort into the Kuriles to make any potential invasion here costly.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: obvert

Usually if you catch it on the first few days, (not sure how many but for me it has worked even three days after conversion to production) you can just change them back to production.

You mean back to R&D not production right? I didn't know this at the time so thought a rerun of the turn the safest option. Good to know for the future.

The two factories in question were R&D'ing the Oscar. I'm good to go on the Ki-43-IIIa now and the IIb will be available for production within days. I'll then switch over my two existing IIa factories.

I finally have a Jack R&D factory fully repaired. Another two are still repairing.

Yeah, sorry, back to R n D.

[SqzMyLemon]

China:

Recon has picked up the large enemy force that has withdrawn from Chengtu and it means I have to cancel the proposed river assault. I will not be able to clear the hex prior to the 26 LCU's arriving so there's absolutely no reason to risk trashing a division. An opportunity lost, but also one gained. Chengtu is now only held by three Chinese LCU's with nine additional units available to reinforce. This will not be enough to hold the base once the majority of my forces arrive. The bulk of the Chinese may have escaped for now, but I'll gladly accept a reduced garrison at Chengtu as compensation.

I'm now facing the reality that a lot more Chinese troops are pouring into the mountainous terrain than I would have liked. It can't be helped and I realize now the fatal flaw in my China strategy was failing to close the door from Burma six months ago. What to do moving forward? I believe the proper course of action is to now capture Chengtu, Chungking and Kunming prior to dealing with the Chinese hordes in the mountains. I simply can't risk the Chinese linking up with Commonwealth forces in Burma by mid 43 and having Chungking still in Chinese hands.

To facilitate the easier capture of Chengtu and Chungking, the current isolated Chinese pockets will not be reduced prior to capture of these bases. There is little to be gained from adding to the defensive capabilities of the Chinese at this time. I expended much effort in isolating 35 enemy LCU's in order to be a non-factor in the defence of China, lets keep it that way.

Burma:

I hate Burma. I now have to reinforce the theatre to prevent the Allies from taking advantage of my failure in China.

Thoughts:

I'm expecting the air war to heat up any day, but so far Jocke continues to avoid any attacks in order to stock his pools and train pilots. I still think a move on New Guinea is imminent as there is a ton of daily recon occurring. My Achille's Heel is lack of fuel at my forward bases. I'm stocking up levels as fast as I can, but the process is much slower than anticipated. I put this down to the submarine threat and having to route away from trouble knowing that I can't prevent any torpedo attacks.

I'm trying to improve my naval search to catch a glimpse of an impending enemy naval action, but so far enemy intentions and location of their CV's remains unknown.

[SqzMyLemon]

China:

I'm concentrating my bombing efforts against Chinese forces in 2x defensive terrain or supporting ground assaults against those in 3x defensive terrain. As expected, casualties in 3x defensive terrain are low. Those in 2x defensive terrain are yielding great results. Over 1600 casualties and 58 squads destroyed on the 4th alone.

Japanese forces advancing on Chengtu are now 92 and 46 miles away from the base. The northern advance is driving back the same Chinese forces that have been defeated four times already. The advance from the southeast has yet to fight a battle. The Chinese force currently occupying the hex directly southeast of Chengtu amounts to nine LCU's and outnumbers my one division and tank regiment, but looks to be withdrawing into the base.

The initial assault force against Chengtu will amount to eight divisions and two tank regiments. Additional forces are being deployed but won't arrive for some time. With the bulk of Chinese forces already abandoning Chengtu, it appears the initial defence will amount to 15 LCU's, three of which wil have been completely trashed upon arrival.

There are 41 Chinese LCU's at Chungking.

The push towards Kunming is completely stalled. I see no way I can defeat the current blocking forces without overstacking.

A deliberate attack against forces west of Paoshan fails to make any progress. I expected the armour to make more of a difference despite the terrain, but that clearly was the wrong expectation. Stacking limit in the hex is 20 or 25k and the 1st Tank and I.G. Division's are overstacking the hex, but it can't be helped. Without overstacking this particular hex I'd make no progress at all, essentially facing the same problem as my troops advancing on Kunming. Most Chinese occupied hexes are overstacked so I have to rely on lack of supply eventually tipping the scales in my favour, but until then it's tough going. A positive note from the ground assault was the adjusted AV of the Chinese was barely more than the original even in 3x terrain. No (-) supply modifier yet, but once the units are completely out the adjusted AV should drop substantially. AAR follows:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at 64,45 (near Paoshan)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 21195 troops, 233 guns, 638 vehicles, Assault Value = 822

Defending force 16730 troops, 105 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 509

Japanese adjusted assault: 276

Allied adjusted defense: 520

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1115 casualties reported
Squads: 12 destroyed, 121 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 15 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Guns lost 17 (2 destroyed, 15 disabled)
Vehicles lost 22 (1 destroyed, 21 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
340 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 50 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Assaulting units:
1st Tank Division
Imperial Guards Division
21st Medium Field Artillery Battalion

Defending units:
1st Chinese Corps
19th Chinese Corps
58th Chinese Corps

Here's a current screenshot of China.



Sub Ops:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Batan Island at 86,70

Japanese Ships
CVE Taiyo, Torpedo hits 1
DD Wakatake

Allied Ships
SS Grenadier

SS Grenadier launches 4 torpedoes at CVE Taiyo
Grenadier diving deep ....
DD Wakatake fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Wakatake fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Wakatake fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Wakatake fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Wakatake fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

Three destroyer escort proves unable to detect or suppress the enemy submarine. I knew Jocke was patrolling these waters but was determined (or stubborn enough) to send this TF through a known high risk area. Might have made it in stock, definitely not in DBB. Dumb on my part and I'm the first to admit it. Then again, no dud against a valuable target. Go figure. The CVE isn't in danger of sinking though, but that will change if it suffers another torpedo attack which is highly likely considering useless Japanese ASW.

[Lokasenna]

Nice job in China.

Did you also build up Lao Cai in Vietnam to help with Kunming, or are you relying on Mengtze alone?

How well-defending is Tsuyung? Can you perhaps circle around Kunming from that direction, either now (by pulling some out of the stalled hex or diverting from the central plain) or after dealing with Chungking?

Likewise, I know it's a long slog through the mountains, but can you push on Paoshan from the SW, using that goat road?

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Nice job in China.

Did you also build up Lao Cai in Vietnam to help with Kunming, or are you relying on Mengtze alone?

How well-defending is Tsuyung? Can you perhaps circle around Kunming from that direction, either now (by pulling some out of the stalled hex or diverting from the central plain) or after dealing with Chungking?

Likewise, I know it's a long slog through the mountains, but can you push on Paoshan from the SW, using that goat road?

Lao Cai is built up to a level 4 airbase and currently two bomber Sentai's are based there. I don't have additional troops to exploit this route, but see below as to why it doesn't really matter.

Tsuyung looks to have only two units there, but all the empty hexes do contain Chinese units which appear occasionally on recon. It's not hard for Jocke to reinforce and overstack any threatened hex.

I am currently sending 21st Division along your suggested goat path, but the problem isn't maneuver, it's having enough strength to overcome both the defensive terrain and defensive overstacking of a hex. Diluting my strength means I just have more of the same battles to fight. I think what I'm doing is the correct tactic. As divisions become weakened they are withdrawn and replaced with a fresh unit. I will win the recovery battle against the Chinese, so as long as I can replace my losses and the Chinese can't, it's just a matter of time unfortunately. Or, when it's warranted, I overstack the hex as I'm doing west of Paoshan. So far, bombardments and air attack are not causing much loss in the 3x terrain, but I plan on mass use shortly to try and add disruption to the mix which should make a big difference on the defenders.

[SqzMyLemon]

70th Division was bought out from China last turn and will redeploy to Burma/Malaya. I also have an IMB (Independent Mixed Brigade) switched to Southern HQ heading to the DEI. So far I'm not touching the Kwantung Army divisions and the garrison remains above 11k AV, but eventually some of the better ones will be bought out.

Vehicle points are now over 30k and armaments still pooling at a nice rate.

Most of my aircraft production has been turned off for months. I'm only producing float and recon planes and Helen bombers at the moment. Current fighter and bomber pools are enough to cover Ops losses. Production of the Ki-43-IIb will commence as soon as it's available replacing current IIa equipped Sentai's.

As much as Jocke is increasing his aircraft pools and pilots with the lack of air combat, so am I. I'm also saving a ton of HI and supply not having to replace losses countering enemy 4E bombing raids. My plan to just get by with as few A6M2's, Nick's, Oscar's and Tojo's until I can start producing better second generation aircraft has paid off.

Once the Tojo IIc, George, Jack and Frank models are available, production will go full bore until the end of the war. Engine pools will eventually be trimmed down once I feel they've maxed out whatever R&D bonuses I need for certain aircraft, then the philosophy will be to stockpile airframes, not engines. Once the airframe is built it can be banked for later use and should offset the reduced production capacity suffered from damaged factories later in the war.