WitP:AE 2

[mind_messing]

I'm glad it's just not me that disaproves of Matrix and it's publishing strategy.

If effort went in to polishing up games, making them look appealing and providing good support, then there would be increased interest in the games. That intrest would spark more sales, and in turn start a nice circle of lower prices and increasing sales.

Instead we have half-baked releases or early beta products. Worse still, we pay exceptional prices through a single seller, so there is zero chance of getting a better deal online. The mistakes of the publisher and developers are paid for by the consumers.

What we end up with is paying more for a game with a limited budget and development team than we would for a triple A title that threw in a couple million for publicity on to the bottom line.

It's akin to the problem Paradox Interactive had a few years back. Buggy, unfinished games were the norm. Paradox managed to reform itself, make it's games work and look appealing. Now they enjoy great commercial sucess (Crusader Kings 2 is a fairly niche game with great sales success, I'm sure there are others). Most of Matrix's games are niche titles, but not that niche!

Matrix, on the other hand, just seems to carry on as backwards as it is, content that it's customers will fork out for over-priced early-alpha products.

[Yaab]

I daresay we get pretty good strategic games these day in terms of OOBs, rules, equipment databases and nice graphics, but what is sorely lacking is a solid AI.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58



Not trying to start yet another b-fest, but as I look at their recent mega-offerings I see one modern $100 game with a huge number of fixes in motion, another decade-in-development monster that shipped with no AI and a score of optional features greyed out on the load screen and a statement many would never be finished, and a 4X game shipped in alpha state with a "help us fund this unfinished product" pitch to real-life retail buyers. AE2 has a built in, massive buyer base and could sustain a $150 price point and not break a sweat. They're pretty bad at game publishing if they're not always, every month, talking about doing this project.

$150 price point? You are nuts!

Sure, some would buy. But many would not.

OK, for you meester, $139.99! Or, a coat and two paira plants![:)]

I'll give you &80, three chickens, and a goat!

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Terminus

Ooh, snarky![8|]

First, it's Sliterine now, not Matrix.

Second, there's only one active team that'd be able to take on a project of that magnitude, and they're working on something else.

Thirdly, no AE 2.

There are many active teams working in consumer PC games. Who knows who might be available? I don't. I doubt you do either.

I know it's Slitherine, however it's spelled. If anything they ought to have more resources and contacts than Matrix, world-wide.

I know you had a piece of AE development many years ago now. That doesn't mean you know what the parent company is doing. Unless you offer some proof you do. Married to a daughter perhaps?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: witpqs


$150 price point? You are nuts!

Sure, some would buy. But many would not.

OK, for you meester, $139.99! Or, a coat and two paira plants![:)]

I'll give you &80, three chickens, and a goat!

What's "&80"? [:)] Is that a non-ASCI-code way for saying "Euro"?

The "coat and two paira plants" is from a classic Marx Brothers routine in one of the movies. I was just feeling amused.

[wdolson]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Not trying to start yet another b-fest, but as I look at their recent mega-offerings I see one modern $100 game with a huge number of fixes in motion, another decade-in-development monster that shipped with no AI and a score of optional features greyed out on the load screen and a statement many would never be finished, and a 4X game shipped in alpha state with a "help us fund this unfinished product" pitch to real-life retail buyers. AE2 has a built in, massive buyer base and could sustain a $150 price point and not break a sweat. They're pretty bad at game publishing if they're not always, every month, talking about doing this project.

For a wargame, the fan base is very large for the WitP family. For a game, no wargame has a large market. Releases of video games like Grand Theft Auto and the other games you see on TV ads can sell more than 1 million copies in a few months after release. The best selling wargames (true wargames, not abstractions like Risk) have sold about 10,000 copies over their entire lifetime. Some mega hits like ASL sold maybe a little better than that, but probably less than 100,000 copies.

This is a niche market Slitherine/Matrix do a lot to dominate it like Avalon Hill did back in the days of board games. But it's still a niche.

When Avalon Hill sold out to Hasbro i read a very good analysis of the gaming market. Everyone who was an insider in the industry was scratching their head why Hasbro would be interested. Hasbro's worst seller game sold more in a year than Avalon Hill's best selling games did over their entire lifetime. In the end it was concluded that Hasbro had intentions of making multi-player online versions of some of AH's multi-player games like Diplomacy, but that never really happened. In the end it just prevented anyone else from doing it.

Hasbro buying AH though was akin to McDonalds expanding into Mexican food by buying out a tiny chain of Mexican taquarias as their new division.

I'm sure Matrix has made some decent money off of AE. I'm not privy to any of the financials, that is just my guess. It's probably one of the most popular computer wargames in history, but it's down in the noise compared to the big hitters. I doubt the typical fan of the latest style of computer games is going to have the patience to play a game like AE, or even an AE2 with a new engine. This topic does not lend itself to being a real time game. It's a very cerebral game that takes a lot of study.

When the Myers Briggs went around a few years ago, I noted that the majority of people who participated in the thread were INTJ with most of the rest being somewhat close in type. INTJ is the rarest of the 16 types and all the other types I saw were also rare. A group made up of rare types are probably never going to convince the rest of the herd that whatever they are into is interesting.

As an aside the type demographics here are very similar to the type demographics in Mensa which is around 24% INTJ and 16% INTP.

Bill

[zuluhour]

C'mon guys, video games are where the money is. Instant gratification = American consumers. I believe most teenage boys have no clue where Burma is. I bet if you phrased it right, they would not know what it is, nor would they care. Sad, but even adults I might share a coffee at Starbucks with not only have no clue about where stuff is on a globe but really express no interest either. Maybe when the video game designers start making their fan base wire up their nuts to their play stations will see some more cerebral types migrate over.[:D]

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: wdolson

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Not trying to start yet another b-fest, but as I look at their recent mega-offerings I see one modern $100 game with a huge number of fixes in motion, another decade-in-development monster that shipped with no AI and a score of optional features greyed out on the load screen and a statement many would never be finished, and a 4X game shipped in alpha state with a "help us fund this unfinished product" pitch to real-life retail buyers. AE2 has a built in, massive buyer base and could sustain a $150 price point and not break a sweat. They're pretty bad at game publishing if they're not always, every month, talking about doing this project.

I'm sure Matrix has made some decent money off of AE. I'm not privy to any of the financials, that is just my guess. It's probably one of the most popular computer wargames in history, but it's down in the noise compared to the big hitters. I doubt the typical fan of the latest style of computer games is going to have the patience to play a game like AE, or even an AE2 with a new engine. This topic does not lend itself to being a real time game. It's a very cerebral game that takes a lot of study.

I'm not really sure that holds true. Would anyone have guessed that a game recreating feudal Europe would go on to be a great comercial success from a small games company with a long line of producing niche games? Crusader Kings 2 certainly did.

One major problem I see with WitP is the lack of publicity. Buying the game requires a few things:
-The consumer to know about it.
-The consumer to decide that he likes what he see's
-The consumer to be willing to pay for it.

What I don't understand is how Matrix hasn't looked in to Steam as a method of boosting sales. It's a nice big market that's virtually untapped. Sure, the majority of gamers using Steam won't like it, but there will be those that do. It's an increase in sales and a increase in profile to boot, and all for a fraction of what it would cost Matrix to do it on their own.

Sadly it seems that Matrix is inherintly complacent in it's buisness method.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

C'mon guys, video games are where the money is. Instant gratification = American consumers. I believe most teenage boys have no clue where Burma is. I bet if you phrased it right, they would not know what it is, nor would they care. Sad, but even adults I might share a coffee at Starbucks with not only have no clue about where stuff is on a globe but really express no interest either. Maybe when the video game designers start making their fan base wire up their nuts to their play stations will see some more cerebral types migrate over.[:D]

"If you don't know it exists, how can you possibily find it?" seems to me to be the big problem with WitP and other titles. What profile the game gets seems to be exlusively by word of mouth.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

C'mon guys, video games are where the money is.

No kidding. The most recent iteration of the GTA V franchise sold circa USD $1B in its first day. Call of Duty: Ghosts was right behind it. These are probably three orders of magnitude greater than sales for anything here.

With such astronomically large money will go the developers, the big research and development dollars, the platform support, programmers, etc. etc. It's a market certainty.

I just thank my stars that we have good support on this one game. That means alot to me. Compete with the big video game players for talent, press, play or numbers? Ain't gonna happen.

[zuluhour]

+1 Chicken

[zuluhour]

I think there should be a challenge to the USNA. It should have updates and links readily accessible on some big sites like a CNN etc.. Just a seed of an idea.

[wdolson]

USNA = US Naval Academy?

Bill

[zuluhour]

Yes sir!

[wdolson]

OK, I'm a bit lost. You want someone to set up another naval academy? I think the USN would have a problem with that.

Bill

[zuluhour]

Damn it man, it was billiard night here at the O club. Its early now but the idea is to get a game with a high profile opponent and make the posts available (AAR etc.)for young people to see what this game is about. Good for the Navy good for the war gaming world. I found out about war gaming in an article in my dad's Esquire magazine in like 1971. I was probably looking for the pretty girl pictures, hey I was 11. I gotta shave etc. for work, so I'll try and expound on this over the weekend.

[zuluhour]

Now that I think of it,..............Naval Acad.....[X(]

[zuluhour]

Looks like I still have some of the old 11 year old in me.....heh,heh,heh.[8|]

ps. Put that pic on the cover of WITP-AE and you will sell 10,000 copies accidently.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: wdolson

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Not trying to start yet another b-fest, but as I look at their recent mega-offerings I see one modern $100 game with a huge number of fixes in motion, another decade-in-development monster that shipped with no AI and a score of optional features greyed out on the load screen and a statement many would never be finished, and a 4X game shipped in alpha state with a "help us fund this unfinished product" pitch to real-life retail buyers. AE2 has a built in, massive buyer base and could sustain a $150 price point and not break a sweat. They're pretty bad at game publishing if they're not always, every month, talking about doing this project.

For a wargame, the fan base is very large for the WitP family. For a game, no wargame has a large market. Releases of video games like Grand Theft Auto and the other games you see on TV ads can sell more than 1 million copies in a few months after release. The best selling wargames (true wargames, not abstractions like Risk) have sold about 10,000 copies over their entire lifetime. Some mega hits like ASL sold maybe a little better than that, but probably less than 100,000 copies.

This is a niche market Slitherine/Matrix do a lot to dominate it like Avalon Hill did back in the days of board games. But it's still a niche.

When Avalon Hill sold out to Hasbro i read a very good analysis of the gaming market. Everyone who was an insider in the industry was scratching their head why Hasbro would be interested. Hasbro's worst seller game sold more in a year than Avalon Hill's best selling games did over their entire lifetime. In the end it was concluded that Hasbro had intentions of making multi-player online versions of some of AH's multi-player games like Diplomacy, but that never really happened. In the end it just prevented anyone else from doing it.

Hasbro buying AH though was akin to McDonalds expanding into Mexican food by buying out a tiny chain of Mexican taquarias as their new division.

I'm sure Matrix has made some decent money off of AE. I'm not privy to any of the financials, that is just my guess. It's probably one of the most popular computer wargames in history, but it's down in the noise compared to the big hitters. I doubt the typical fan of the latest style of computer games is going to have the patience to play a game like AE, or even an AE2 with a new engine. This topic does not lend itself to being a real time game. It's a very cerebral game that takes a lot of study.

When the Myers Briggs went around a few years ago, I noted that the majority of people who participated in the thread were INTJ with most of the rest being somewhat close in type. INTJ is the rarest of the 16 types and all the other types I saw were also rare. A group made up of rare types are probably never going to convince the rest of the herd that whatever they are into is interesting.

As an aside the type demographics here are very similar to the type demographics in Mensa which is around 24% INTJ and 16% INTP.

Bill

All good points, but points made myriad times already. Please note I am not advocating AE or any wargame try to be GTA. The latest made I think one billion dollars in gross revenue in its first two months. I get that. But constantly saying "niche" like it's a magic marketing death knell doesn't work for me. I know from marketing. I used to do marketing for Fortune 500 real players. I once worked on a $1.2 billion brand that had a $70 million ad budget in 1988 dollars. Big hitter. So I've done segmentation. I understand marketing strategy. And I also know that there are a lot of niche brands I could happily live on if offered a tenth of a tenth of a percent of their profitability. Ever heard of Tiffany's?

I know there are many definitions of "AE2." I also suspect, strongly from comments here by Matrix management over the years, that a major and perhaps insurmountable roadblock to the idea is intellectual property rights stretching back to Pacific War and GG (and maybe his 3x2 team in the WITP era.) I suspect Symon, given his real life profession, understands this roadblock far better than I ever will. But I have seen in my business life that few contracts can't be re-opened for re-negotiation. Sometimes, no. The holder of rights just is not interested. This can happen in creative fields more than in more mundane. I get that. But GG is still actively involved with Matrix/Slit. with WITW and WITE2. I do not expect he would be interested in any AE2. But he might allow it if conditions were right.

I see AE2 as the current game's guts lifted into a new shell. The design is fine. The OOB is done. The sounds, music, animation even would do. What any new team would contribute would be a true Windows interface, better interface mechanics (zoomable map, easier art swaps, etc.), some templates to speed things like TF formation, an easier consumer-level editor, and a non-scripted AI or at least a hybrid, with a better interface so historical geniuses but computer novices could do AI. That's all.


Such a team wouldn't have to be WWII grognards. They wouldn't be wtiting algorithms or designing new scenarios. They'd be coders, not designers. But really GOOD coders with deep experience in Windows. The AI stuff is the hardest obviously, but again, to do that one doesn't need to understand how main battery turrets in an Iowa-class load. They just need to look at the existing data.

The economics of it are hard, I grant. But a design document that started at a manhour budget and worked backwards to a volume and price point set would be nice. I see Matrix funding projects that have no installed fan base and asking three-figure retails for them. An AE2 didn't make sense in a recession-seared world in 2010 when computer games were forecasted to die by now, replaced by 100% console stuff. If Matrix needed to allieviate the risk by fan-sourcing or, shudder, doing a "Pandora" gig to ship an alpha to us all and ask for money to contine development, AE2 is the only, the single game in all the game universe for which I would sit still and participate. I know they're casting their hopes on the tablet market. Good luck with that. I've read their announcements, I've read their press conference notes. It might work. I don't think it will, but I've been wrong about markets many times. But my overall point is this is a product portfolio issue for them. It's about balancing risks. AE2 is risky in some ways and a solid gold lock in others. They just have to control the tendrils and let it be less of a jump than AE was from WITP. Incremental, not paradigm shifting. New news, new revenue, maybe some new players. That's all.

[Xargun]

Perhaps a venture into a KickStarter type setup for AE2 would prove the value either way. Figure they need X (whatever number they come up with) to cover costs and if they get that or above they make the game ? Doubt that will happen, but we can all dream.