British Expeditionary Force (BEF)

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

It wasn't a game I played, but a game I watched between my Dad and one of his friends, but I saw one where Wavell shipped out on the first turn, and advnaced built Alexander, and the Brits shipped a HUGE force into France.

Germany responded by overrunning Egypt on like the first turn, and then sailing the Italians round, grabbing basrah, and aligning Iraq and Iran. Invaded the soviets in 1940, and the Iranian 3-5 Cav ran over Baku in M/J.

Meanwhile, the British were just still piling up a zillion troops in France, and being completely ignored. (They eventually attacked Belgium for some counterplay, but couldn't break through that west wall while the Soviets crashed and burned).


Now, there were some significant tactical mistakes on the Allied side, but losing Egypt is a very real risk if you overstuff France, in addition to the sealion worries.

[vicberg]

In thinking about a Sea Lion threat against a CW Redoubt, the invasion force has to flip. So you invade off the AMPH and take a port, but that unit has to flip. That's 1 impulse. Invade with all 3 units and all 3 flip and you're done.

Impulse following, you can TRS direct into the invaded port, so 1 corp can move during land and the second corp can offload during debark phase (if playing with AMPH rules, much more difficult). So that corp that moves direct into the CW port has to be an HQ in order to enable the at sea corp to offload during debark.

Ok. So that's two corp and a div. Enough to take a -3 London (two factories and a city)? So the HQ reorgs the TRS to get another unit into Enland, and it flips and is done.

Then the CW fleet has an impulse (or two) to respond and possibly cut off supply. A supply unit could help, but those are motorized and require a TRS to move.

If GE were setup for a possible invasion, as CW I might keep another corp back in London as response, but I would almost welcome a Sea Lion in that event.

[vicberg]

You can't lose Suez. It enables Lend Lease through Syria to Russia (even with a Vichy Syria, neutral country). It takes more time to redeploy the CW fleets from Atlantic to Pacific. It secures an entire IT front (E. Med).

Wavell doesn't have to leave 1st turn. Wavell stays until the OZ MIL is transported and then usually another MOT is sent via the Queens from England down to Egypt first impulse.

If GE DOWS Netherlands in SO39, the NE TRS can start in NEI. That guy can run down to Sydney, reorg the MIL with TRS supply, the MIL can rail to the West Coast of OZ. The TRS rebases into that city. The MIL can make it to Egypt by ND39. If the Queens picks up another Indian corp, that's 3 Corp, plus usually a gun (AT is preferable). More than enough to stop up an IT only blitz into Egypt. Then Wavell leaves.

It still leaves CW with 3 TRS to do a Rotterdam defense or Antwerp defense or start the CW Redoubt.

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

The invasion force doesn't have to flip unless the combat turns it face down or the hex is too expensive movement wise to make it in one go.


Neither of those should apply in England if you're just overrunning a notional. Hell, on a combined and if you're set up right, you could even take two hexes and stay face up with a bit of luck (para and a div in one hex, some dude on the amph and another div for the second)

[brian brian]

Notionals in the UK are worth 2, 3 in a ZoC. Invading Germans being disorganized or not is not a given; the odds of that would probably depend on commitments of air assets on each side.

[vicberg]

There will be at least 2 bombers in England, possibly more. The minimal notional will be a 2. Even if you invade with all 3 units, it's a guarantee that CW will commit to defending the notional. An easy 4 on defense excluding the air combat commitment/results. Best case for GE attack using it's highest combat factors will be 19 halved for the attack or 9. GE will get a +1 on the die roll for the notional but if using 2D10 chart, no way a guarantee. Of course, it depends on many, many factors such as weather, if CW already committed it's air assets, etc..

It's worth keeping the 2 corp and div as a threat. Still I'm not confident that 2 corp and a div can do it and I'm not sure if I saw that as CW that I would significantly change my plans. I might build a few MIL to defend around London. Let GE invade in the north. Factories can be rebuilt. The CW fleet has an excellent chance to cut supply and the USE affect is significant. Plus while GE is having to do combined moves, that's less going on in France.

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

The usual "opportunistic" sealion though, is done in M/J or J/A 40, after having secured Belgium.

That gives the Germans the chance to stuff Antwerp with ME109s, and even with their puny 3 ranges, that gives them the reach to hit dover and to hit Harwich. I am not so sure you can count on getting your bombers through, and of course, teh Germans can send their own bombers in, and will certainly be sending in the Kriegsmarine. 8 invading factors is likely invading factors (para, 3.5 for a 7 strength inf, and .5 for the ss infdiv.) +8 more shore bombardment + a stuka or two can give you a 10:1 against an unsupported notional, and 5:1 even if the bomber slips through.


EDIT: Forgot to factor in the +1 for successful paratrooper landing. That bumps the odds up to 55% for staying fully organized, and 85% for someone staying face up, respectively.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Ur_Vile_WEdge

The usual "opportunistic" sealion though, is done in M/J or J/A 40, after having secured Belgium.

That gives the Germans the chance to stuff Antwerp with ME109s, and even with their puny 3 ranges, that gives them the reach to hit dover and to hit Harwich. I am not so sure you can count on getting your bombers through, and of course, teh Germans can send their own bombers in, and will certainly be sending in the Kriegsmarine. 8 invading factors is likely invading factors (para, 3.5 for a 7 strength inf, and .5 for the ss infdiv.) +8 more shore bombardment + a stuka or two can give you a 10:1 against an unsupported notional, and 5:1 even if the bomber slips through.


And a +11 assault on 2D10 has a 45% chance of everyone staying face up, and a 79% chance of at least one unit staying face up.

Exactly. Point here is that the CW needs some units to defend the coast. At least three (and to be sure even four) corps have to stay into England to prevent an invasion against a hex only defended by a notional not in a ZOC of a CW unit.

[brian brian]

The Germans would invade with the 9-4 INF and a 2-3 Infantry division most likely; with the Paras that's 9.5 ground factors. The Germans can get ashore in 1940. So the CW keeps their MECH in Harwich, and 2 other infantry units in London and vicinity, and a regular patrol force of 3-4 BBs in the 3 box of the North Sea at all times. And can still send a healthy BEF to France, as long as they build plenty of Infantry.

The Germans could still get ashore somewhere if they want. But what will they do then? The surprise Sea Lion really only works against bad CW play.

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

So we're talking 3 land units in the CW itself. Gort, Wavell, Alexander, and 8-ish units in France. You'll want at least 2 guys in Gibraltar, even if some of them are weaklings and terr, you'll want to guard Egypt with something; and as a stretch goal, you'll probably want to garrison Malta, have something in India to keep down the Partisans, and maybe take to the offensive in Portugal and/or Iraq.

Meanwhile, if you want to hugely expand the British army, well, you've only got 11 BP a turn. Just building out your Mils, gars, and inf will cost you 25, so it's not possible unless France is giving you money, and I assume you'll want pilots, ships, spare convoys, that sort of thing.


You can't do everything. And while that's not to say a big BEF can't succeed, you can and are putting the home island, or most of your outlying territories at risk by doing so. And once the Germans get ashore, it's really bad. You might have your BB up in the North Sea, but you know Italy's going to re-route at least some of her navs to try to chase them off. The Germans are almost certainly going to have the air advantage, which means the mountain units can just hop over in the starting Ju-52 once they make a beachhead, and when they ship Guderian and another inf over, have Guderian re-org the TRS and Amph, and then send them back on another combined..... it gets ugly.


I'm not even saying it's a common scenario, but it's entirely possible to make it ashore in Harwich in M/J 40, and have an armored HQ, 2 MTN (one Italian), the Para, and 3-4 inf, in addition to any plane that wants to fly over, in England by the middle of the next turn. If you only have 3 units in the UK, the Commonwealth is going to fall.

[vicberg]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

The Germans would invade with the 9-4 INF and a 2-3 Infantry division most likely; with the Paras that's 9.5 ground factors. The Germans can get ashore in 1940. So the CW keeps their MECH in Harwich, and 2 other infantry units in London and vicinity, and a regular patrol force of 3-4 BBs in the 3 box of the North Sea at all times. And can still send a healthy BEF to France, as long as they build plenty of Infantry.

The Germans could still get ashore somewhere if they want. But what will they do then? The surprise Sea Lion really only works against bad CW play.

My opponent routinely puts 3 HQs into France, 6 corp, a gun or two (AA), including 2 MECH, only builds land a few air for the first year (maybe a CV or two), so he has plenty of ground troops to defend Egypt, Malta, GB, England and even rebases CW fighters into France once France falls and no longer subject to foreign troop commitment. He pulls back to Nantes - St. Malo defensive line and it takes time to break that line. Especially during bad weather turns of late 40/early 41.

For the cost of 2 corp and a div, that might keep a corp or two out of France or redirect some builds into MIL or Garrisons for defense of England. That might have an impact, but I'm not convinced. CW only needs 3 corp (total) to protect the ports within striking distance of London. Other ports are outside of GE Fighter range.

My only solution right now is to go hard and heavy against the CW on the continent during Belgium and French campaigns. With the Errata fighter rule (extra fighters only add 1/10 of their Air to Air to the attack), it makes it possible to gain air superiority against the CW and then ground strike and kill CW units. I didn't do this last game and paid the price up to MA41.

[vicberg]

ORIGINAL: Ur_Vile_WEdge

So we're talking 3 land units in the CW itself. Gort, Wavell, Alexander, and 8-ish units in France. You'll want at least 2 guys in Gibraltar, even if some of them are weaklings and terr, you'll want to guard Egypt with something; and as a stretch goal, you'll probably want to garrison Malta, have something in India to keep down the Partisans, and maybe take to the offensive in Portugal and/or Iraq.

Meanwhile, if you want to hugely expand the British army, well, you've only got 11 BP a turn. Just building out your Mils, gars, and inf will cost you 25, so it's not possible unless France is giving you money, and I assume you'll want pilots, ships, spare convoys, that sort of thing.


You can't do everything. And while that's not to say a big BEF can't succeed, you can and are putting the home island, or most of your outlying territories at risk by doing so. And once the Germans get ashore, it's really bad. You might have your BB up in the North Sea, but you know Italy's going to re-route at least some of her navs to try to chase them off. The Germans are almost certainly going to have the air advantage, which means the mountain units can just hop over in the starting Ju-52 once they make a beachhead, and when they ship Guderian and another inf over, have Guderian re-org the TRS and Amph, and then send them back on another combined..... it gets ugly.


I'm not even saying it's a common scenario, but it's entirely possible to make it ashore in Harwich in M/J 40, and have an armored HQ, 2 MTN (one Italian), the Para, and 3-4 inf, in addition to any plane that wants to fly over, in England by the middle of the next turn. If you only have 3 units in the UK, the Commonwealth is going to fall.

CW gets 17 BP starting in 40. Plus starting around MA40, all French BP are lend leased to CW, so yes, he has LOTS of BP to spend. Plenty of production to do what I'm laying out.

[Dabrion]

From which factories are all these French BP coming? There is res and bp going to Russia, in our games CW does have about five to seven BP to itself during the critical years.

[vicberg]

He lends only 1 resource to RU during 40. RU multiplier is such that you need to send 1 or 3 to have an impact. He focuses all USE on GE/IT until options 15 (resources to Western Allies) and 19 (Resources to USSR) are chosen. He's gotten option 15 first turn one game. BPs can't be lent to Rusia until USE is at 30, long after France is over. So CW is getting 5 from US quite early in the game.

As far as the French are concerned, the number of lent French BPs is dependent upon how well the defense is going. GE will take by MJ40 (generally), the 3 resources along the French/Belgium Border, plus possibly Lille. That still leaves 9 factories and 3 resources not including Algerian resource which can be railed through Spain and the W. Africa Resource, which can be shipped up to Spain and then railed. Unless the GE attack is going very well, chance are that France will have 5 resources/factories functioning, multiplied by 1.25, so approx 7 BP from MJ40 and on. That's quite a bit of extra production for CW.

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

ORIGINAL: vicberg


CW gets 17 BP starting in 40. Plus starting around MA40, all French BP are lend leased to CW, so yes, he has LOTS of BP to spend. Plenty of production to do what I'm laying out.

And if you're building all land units, that means you're stuck with what you started with at sea. Even with just the initial axis sub mixes, they can give you some headaches, and if you're playing with it, if the Germans even fix up one CX it can cause you some major headaches.


Because if you want to ship all the french production over to the CW, well then, low box or no, I'm going to be paying a little visit to the Bay of Biscay with my submarines. Even coming from the one box has a 30% per impulse chance of catching your convoys if you're putting more than 10 in there, and I've got little better to do in the winter months anyway with a classic setup. And if you have no naval gearing, like you seem to be suggesting, then you'll never replace those convoys in time. A bad roll in the Faeroes or the Bay of Biscay can de-rail your entire production line, more or less permanently.


And time is definitely what you're short of. Of your 6 mil in the force pool, only 1 hails from the UK, and most of them are from the Asian/Pacific maps, which could take 2 naval moves or more to get where you need them. The inf and garrisons are not quite as bad, but between them, you've got 1 "English" unit out of 5. Alexander can't get onto the board short of J/A 40 unless you advance build him, and that costs an absurd amount of money.


Maybe you guys have come up with some sort of defensive trick that I'm not aware of, but I would be VERY leery of stripping England down to 3 corps worth of land units unless I managed to either kill the para or sink the amph somehow. It's really not that hard for Germany to switch gears and jump into the southeast, and flood outward.

[vicberg]

ORIGINAL: Dabrion

From which factories are all these French BP coming? There is res and bp going to Russia, in our games CW does have about five to seven BP to itself during the critical years.

That's the difference in play style. He says the best defense of Russia is keep CW troops on the continent as long as possible. So he doesn't lend huge amounts of resources to Russia.

[Dabrion]

True, it somehow slipped my mind that you were talking about 39/40. Three HQ is only possible for a 40 and later France campaign right? We almost always see France + Lows rushed from the start. I have yet to see this fail when the OChit is burned, so it established as the German meta opening for us.. CW stakes are quite high for a more than historical commitment in France in this scenario.

[Dabrion]

ORIGINAL: vicberg

ORIGINAL: Dabrion

From which factories are all these French BP coming? There is res and bp going to Russia, in our games CW does have about five to seven BP to itself during the critical years.

That's the difference in play style. He says the best defense of Russia is keep CW troops on the continent as long as possible. So he doesn't lend huge amounts of resources to Russia.

You can bet the Pizza-Deliveries will soon extend to France and Northern Africa in that case. With all CW HQs in France thats just asking for trouble in another theatre. Have you actually seen this work out?

[vicberg]

Yup and so far I don't have an answer for it. He's not impregnable but strong everywhere he needs to be. He has answers for the French First as well. DOW Netherlands first, he lands in Rotterdam. DOW both Netherlands and Belgium or just Belgium and if Antwerp holds (and it has decent chance of holding), CW troops land in Antwerp or move in from Rotterdam and French troops rush into Brussels and the Western Ardennes forest and make for a very solid defensive line. Difficult to break in bad weather without an o-chit.

[vicberg]

This guy is just an incredible player though. He's played all the top players. Played the game as much if not more than anyone out there. Always has his troops perfectly positioned. Kicks my butt one side and down the other. I don't think I could pull off what he does. He has multiple vassal games going at any given point. Scary good.