Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland

[Tom Hunter]

In the center I’m setting up two armies to try to punch through and hopefully threaten Saper222s position in the South. I’ve got 5 turns to get them in place, and Saper has not flown recon over the Kalinin Front troops. Stalin put Budenney in charge last turn, I will swap him out before things get hot. I think Saper222 is planning to pull back here, his forces are kind of light and it makes sense. I want the area for the rail lines, the crossing south of Voronezh is very important if I want to take back very much of the South.

I’ve pushed my front up to contact with Saper222 and this has helped me advance the rail line 2 or 3 hexes, and had the nice side effect of boosting my manpower from 2080 to 2113 over the last few turns. You can see that on this map.

[Tom Hunter]

In the South I found the German rail head. This is one of the few big successes of my recon, which is still low quality. I’ve lost the Pnzers and there are large areas that I can fly over without seeing anything, but that does not mean nothing is there, it just means my pilots do not know what to look for.

When winter comes I am going to try to force the Donets crossing, but I suspect that the attacks further North will be what forces Saper222 back. I would really like to push his railhead back if I can. It’s a long way, so I am not sure if that will work or not.

I’m hoping for some comments on the strategy here, the armies are not in the tactical positions they need to be at the start of the snow period, so pointing that out will be redundant.

I’ve also got Stavka armies building in the rear, partly because the Front’s are filling up fast and have no more capacity, and partly because reserves are good to have. I’m beginning to think that I should set up a reserve army in each front and either have Stavka take a portion of the line, or have those troops even further back in the chain. Thoughts?

[M60A3TTS]

It would be helpful if you could take a screenshot of the production screen with the scroll bar pulled down so we can see ___SPECIAL____

[Tom Hunter]

Screenshot from the very end of Saper222s T20

[Peltonx]

Something to remember its not how many your have, but the level of your morale.

[M60A3TTS]

An army with great morale and no food or bullets won't fare well.

Ok, so you've lost about a quarter of your vehicle fleet. Vehicles in the units look good, vehicles in the motor pool look fine too with twice as many available as what you currently need. Supply-wise you should be in good shape. You will lose some trucks as you advance during blizzard and as your army grows so will demand on the truck fleet.

Manpower at 2100 isn't great but it will do for the time being. Keep your forward elements that are doing the fighting refitted and don't be afraid to let other units go without.

[Peltonx]

Lol thk M60 thk

An army with all the food and bullets don't fare well with poor morale.

There are 2 sides to every coin, not one.

Morale is 75% of this game if not more, that has never changed.

[M60A3TTS]

Yes Pelton, but over on the Third Reich side, it's all milk and honey when it comes to logistics. When have you ever had to be concerned with how many trucks are in your motor pool? A big Red Army has other concerns it has to deal with in addition to morale.

[Michael T]

The Hvy IND losses are terrible. Even if he survives he will have supply problems from 43 on.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

Yes Pelton, but over on the Third Reich side, it's all milk and honey when it comes to logistics. When have you ever had to be concerned with how many trucks are in your motor pool? A big Red Army has other concerns it has to deal with in addition to morale.

I don't know much about SHC (1 game), but MT's advise on SHC is always (99%) right.

Germany did more with less, HISTORICAL.

[Tom Hunter]

I read on the forums to find out what to evacuate. I used Walloc's guide when possible, and by T5 (or maybe 4, I don't really remember) was doing things in the optimal way.

The forums are full of posts that say Heavy Industry does not matter.

Can you post why you think it does matter? That would be very helpful to know for future games. Thanks for your post and your thoughts on the subject.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

I read on the forums to find out what to evacuate. I used Walloc's guide when possible, and by T5 (or maybe 4, I don't really remember) was doing things in the optimal way.

The forums are full of posts that say Heavy Industry does not matter.

Can you post why you think it does matter? That would be very helpful to know for future games. Thanks for your post and your thoughts on the subject.

At first we ( MT-Flaviusx and many others) thought it did not matter, but after some people started getting late into the war it was discovered it does matter.

Some HVY industry should be railed out, how much we are not really sure.

Flaviusx has always left 50 arm pts west of rivers for GHC to destroy. Why? Because vs a good GHC player you need to rail some ground units and you will get behind the curve so to speak. In my 2 current on going games because of a poor rail strategy I destroyed 150+ in one game by blizzard and 100 so far in the other and its only turn 9.

The huge down fall many undefeated SHC players make is not assuming someone is really good as GHC.

If you assume the GHC player is one of the best you should be leaving behind 50 arm pts, you will be able to save everything else easly plus some HVY industry.

[loki100]

I can't find it back, but someone did a brilliant schematic guide to how industry and production works in WiTE. I had it downloaded but it got lost when I had to reformat my laptop.

If I recall, primarily, HI generates supply. And you have a fair bit off map or in the deep rear. Given the cost of HI vs AP for rail, I suspect people leave it due to the rough feeling of not losing more than 50 APs but still having some capacity for operational redeployments.

In effect, a lack of AP has a very immediate cost - all those things that require 'A' (incl the vital 42 squad upgrades) won't happen. Usually with the Soviets the big issue is supply delivery (ie trucks).

From some AARs, I think there is a bit of a trade off, more HI allows you to support a bigger army in 43-45. But then that is all but a given, as that probably means you lost less (industry and units) in 41-42.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: loki100

I can't find it back, but someone did a brilliant schematic guide to how industry and production works in WiTE. I had it downloaded but it got lost when I had to reformat my laptop.

If I recall, primarily, HI generates supply. And you have a fair bit off map or in the deep rear. Given the cost of HI vs AP for rail, I suspect people leave it due to the rough feeling of not losing more than 50 APs but still having some capacity for operational redeployments.

In effect, a lack of AP has a very immediate cost - all those things that require 'A' (incl the vital 42 squad upgrades) won't happen. Usually with the Soviets the big issue is supply delivery (ie trucks).

From some AARs, I think there is a bit of a trade off, more HI allows you to support a bigger army in 43-45. But then that is all but a given, as that probably means you lost less (industry and units) in 41-42.

I believe MT figured it out first, but when the Russian army gets over 9 million it becomes and issue.

In my game vs Huge it was a big factor as his army hit 9 million in June 1943. Huge did a good job not letting me get pockets, but he lost allot of land and industry.

[Callistrid]

I still wish to find that guide. Could somebody give me a link?

ORIGINAL: Pelton

ORIGINAL: loki100

I can't find it back, but someone did a brilliant schematic guide to how industry and production works in WiTE. I had it downloaded but it got lost when I had to reformat my laptop.

If I recall, primarily, HI generates supply. And you have a fair bit off map or in the deep rear. Given the cost of HI vs AP for rail, I suspect people leave it due to the rough feeling of not losing more than 50 APs but still having some capacity for operational redeployments.

In effect, a lack of AP has a very immediate cost - all those things that require 'A' (incl the vital 42 squad upgrades) won't happen. Usually with the Soviets the big issue is supply delivery (ie trucks).

From some AARs, I think there is a bit of a trade off, more HI allows you to support a bigger army in 43-45. But then that is all but a given, as that probably means you lost less (industry and units) in 41-42.

I believe MT figured it out first, but when the Russian army gets over 9 million it becomes and issue.

In my game vs Huge it was a big factor as his army hit 9 million in June 1943. Huge did a good job not letting me get pockets, but he lost allot of land and industry.

[Flaviusx]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

I read on the forums to find out what to evacuate. I used Walloc's guide when possible, and by T5 (or maybe 4, I don't really remember) was doing things in the optimal way.

The forums are full of posts that say Heavy Industry does not matter.

Can you post why you think it does matter? That would be very helpful to know for future games. Thanks for your post and your thoughts on the subject.

At first we ( MT-Flaviusx and many others) thought it did not matter, but after some people started getting late into the war it was discovered it does matter.

Some HVY industry should be railed out, how much we are not really sure.

Flaviusx has always left 50 arm pts west of rivers for GHC to destroy. Why? Because vs a good GHC player you need to rail some ground units and you will get behind the curve so to speak. In my 2 current on going games because of a poor rail strategy I destroyed 150+ in one game by blizzard and 100 so far in the other and its only turn 9.

The huge down fall many undefeated SHC players make is not assuming someone is really good as GHC.

If you assume the GHC player is one of the best you should be leaving behind 50 arm pts, you will be able to save everything else easly plus some HVY industry.

Well, not always. It was you who convinced me to sit down and figure out how to streamline an evacuation to deal with a grossly accelerated German advance. I concluded that the only way to get ahead of this was to write off everything west of the Dnepr and start railing out big concentrations from turn 3 on while you still had the rail cap to do it.

But yes at some point you can no longer ignore heavy industry. There's a lot of slack there (unlike armaments) but you can't throw it all away. Roughly speaking, you can write off everything west of Moscow and Rostov so far as heavy industry goes, but past that it's going to cause problems down the line.

[gingerbread]

The 8-point HI in Leningrad is nice to have, but it is expensive.

There are a couple of 4-pointers that are choice evac targets. If you leave the Kharkov vehicles, you can move 3 of those 4xHI.

[Tom Hunter]

T21 I moved the BA 10 Armored car factory, and 26 points of the T60 factory out of Stalingrad because I had some rail left over after troop movements.

Red Army has 4.8 million men, 42,000 guns, 2800 hundred tanks and 7100 aircraft, Germans are at 3.3 million men, 33k guns, 3100 tanks and 3200 planes. Ground losses were marginal.

I’ve filled out all my fronts except for Transcaucasus, which will be full soon. As you can see from the map I broke contact a bit so if Saper222 is planning to hit my lines he has to burn a few MPs to get there.

If Saper222 does not hit me in the snow I plan to start pushing forward in my turn. Anything I can do to move the rail up and start the meat grinder helps I think.

In the air took fairly heavy losses this turn, as with last turn my losses in my earlier attacks were greater than my losses in the later rounds of attacks. Saper222 keeps the Hs126s closer to the front, I’ve managed to destroy about 120 of the original 314, so maybe I am affecting his recon? He certainly flies less of it. I’m hitting him partly to train my airforce, but I may have stumbled into a useful strategy. Saper222 was doing a lot of recon and using it to make smarted decisions, if I am blinding him that should help me.

The massive bombing campaign is causing a significant increase in the quality and moral of the Red Airforce, Experience wise in the level bombers I’ve got two groups at 57, three at 56, and 14 at 55, Tac bombers have a different spread, 1x58, 1x57, 2x56 and 55, and 3 at 54. A month or two ago I had many groups with xp in the 30s now there is one. The fighter bomber groups are a much better picture, with three groups in the 80s, over a dozen in the 70s and many in the 60s.

On the ground my army is smaller than many, but the moral is getting better, a good chunk of the army is at 50 (one full screen) or higher, and only 18 of the 349 infantry units are below 40. The cavalry moral is even better, because cavalry.

First turn of snow coming up, the last turn of mud went to Saper222 a few minutes ago.

[jwolf]

Tom, I am worried about the snow turns.  You're gearing up for the winter offensive (at least that's the impression I got), but Sapper has all his mech divisions rested, refit, fueled and ready to hit you during the snow turns.  Granted he doesn't have a lot of time, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him pull off a couple of medium sized pockets or maybe even a disastrous, soul crushing mega pocket.  He can leave a skeletal force maintaining his defensive lines and forts while he hits you hard with everything else.  I'm particularly concerned because you admitted a few turns back that you lost track of the panzers, so he could be set up just about anywhere.

BTW kudos to you for persisting through this campaign in spite of the torrid Axis pace of advance, especially the miracle move through about 200 miles of heavy forest in one week to cut the northern RR.

[Tom Hunter]

@jwolf You are right of course, and I am even more worried about the missing pnz than you, trust me [X(]

So what I have done is scout his lines, there are no pnz in the jumpoff hexes, and there are none visible behind. There is some motorized inf at the North end of the top most stopline on the map I posted.

The huge blank area in the middle South really does seem to be empty. There is no air or ground there, which is what you would expect if you think Saper222 will pull back in the South. I think he will pull back in the South center, but the concentration of airpower at Moscow and Stalino makes me think he will try to hold both the far south and the center North around Moscows. I am pretty confident that there is no huge pnz army hiding at Voronezh.

He could potentially attack out of Moscow, or out of Stalino Rostov. Both Axis have valuable targets to grab, the Yaroslav-Gorki area, and Stalingrad. Most of the factories (a bit of heavy industry is still there) are gone from the area East of Moscow. Stalingrad has all its arm, but the vehicles and the T60s are out.

If he does launch a snow ball fight, it will likely be in the South.

I think if Sapper222 charges he will burn 10ish mp reaching my lines, and then burn much of the rest punching into them. The typical hex has 15-25k men, with lots of air close by and an L1 or 2 fort. All of this is easy for him to smash, but he will not have 20 mp left after he does. The armies in the front all have armies behind, infront of Stalingrad one army is forward, and a second is behind moving up (moving on the map) further North there are two armies forward, and a complete front behind.

I am increasingly confident that my land moves are able to prevent massive pockets (but not smaller ones) and Saper222 sent me a note about that when I abandoned Moscow. Paraphrasing he said: 'it looks like you have figured out how fast the pnz can move.' He had been setting up a giant pocket around Moscow, and I ran before the trap was finished.

So I think he can do a lot of damage, but not create big multi army pockets. He gets three turns of snow, if he times things wrong and I time them right he could be in the open in the blizzard. If I time things wrong and he takes the gamble I could lose a front worth of armies in the next few turns.