Wild Sheep Chase - obvert (J) vs JocMeister (A)

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Now you know why I prefer to use Kate/Jill/Grace for my kami's*. 9/10 range is imperative as I know I have to be able to cover Okinawa.

Nemo took Okinawa back. Don't remember if he went into Naha or Nago first. If you look at those 2 scenarios, there are several ID's on Okinawa ... can't remember how many now. You know Nemo, he through everything there. Didn't care about losses, and he had a lot. Succeeded. Wish the game had lasted longer because would have been interesting to see how/if the allies recovered.


*And of course the Frank "b" model and George. Both are needed for range for escort. The Ki-83 is also a choice here, but not one that I often make ... I'm too frugal ... [;)]

So to put this in perspective Jocke landed 10+ divisions and other stuff including all kinds of massive engineers, tanks, arty and HQs. Over 5000AV. To take something like that back would mean easily 3x the amount in Japanese troops!!! No way! Of course some would be moved out in the future, but it doesn't matter who is running the show here, it could be a team of rader and Nemo, there is no chance to take back Okinawa.

So yes, great planes for kamis, but only IJN. I am using most of these for conventional strikes still as the pilots are decent. This kind of limits the numbers though if those are your only strike planes? No IJAAF types?

So far I have about 30% of the 2E IJAAF groups changed to kamis. About 15% of the DB IJN groups. A few Oscar groups. But I don't have the big training groups that can be used yet. Only the 10 plane groups, and they're training one set of pilots before anything else. I can't see them being very useful in the beta either.

I think the kinds of strikes you're thinking of come only after all of the later training groups arrive and all other planes can be used as sweep and escorts. It will be May before anything like that is even possible, and who knows if I'll have supply to make a strike that big by then?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

How much did your ARM pool drop? Lots arrived!

I'll have to check. It'll be dropping daily from now on until I'm out of supply! [:D]

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Now you know why I prefer to use Kate/Jill/Grace for my kami's*. 9/10 range is imperative as I know I have to be able to cover Okinawa.

Nemo took Okinawa back. Don't remember if he went into Naha or Nago first. If you look at those 2 scenarios, there are several ID's on Okinawa ... can't remember how many now. You know Nemo, he through everything there. Didn't care about losses, and he had a lot. Succeeded. Wish the game had lasted longer because would have been interesting to see how/if the allies recovered.


*And of course the Frank "b" model and George. Both are needed for range for escort. The Ki-83 is also a choice here, but not one that I often make ... I'm too frugal ... [;)]

So to put this in perspective Jocke landed 10+ divisions and other stuff including all kinds of massive engineers, tanks, arty and HQs. Over 5000AV. To take something like that back would mean easily 3x the amount in Japanese troops!!! No way! Of course some would be moved out in the future, but it doesn't matter who is running the show here, it could be a team of rader and Nemo, there is no chance to take back Okinawa.

So yes, great planes for kamis, but only IJN. I am using most of these for conventional strikes still as the pilots are decent. This kind of limits the numbers though if those are your only strike planes? No IJAAF types?

So far I have about 30% of the 2E IJAAF groups changed to kamis. About 15% of the DB IJN groups. A few Oscar groups. But I don't have the big training groups that can be used yet. Only the 10 plane groups, and they're training one set of pilots before anything else. I can't see them being very useful in the beta either.

I think the kinds of strikes you're thinking of come only after all of the later training groups arrive and all other planes can be used as sweep and escorts. It will be May before anything like that is even possible, and who knows if I'll have supply to make a strike that big by then?

I don't remember the details, but either they were playing a Downfall-type scenario or Nemo picked up someone else's game. Either way (I seem to remember it was the first option) there wasn't all that much on the island. yes, plenty in terms of 'usual' game play, but not in terms of what one can do with the game with extreme maneuvers. I think basically what happened is that the scenario started out with historical forces there, but as we know the game engine, while fantastic, is not an electron for electron simulation. He sent in a whopping big force, complete with massive attacks of other sorts to cover them/disrupt the defenses (all of land/sea/air defenses). The greater elements of the Allied fleet were back at something like Ulithi or the Marianas and could not intervene in time.

Basically, yes he did that. he decided that in the situation taking the losses entailed were worth it in terms of the strategic delay imposed on the Allies.

[witpqs]

I should add, it's an example I am keeping in mind in games as Allies when it comes to considering and defending against possible Imperial counter attacks! [:D]

[Lokasenna]

It sounds like your supply situation in Japan is dire. I'd be interested in seeing some numbers and trends over the past few months, if you've got them.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

It sounds like your supply situation in Japan is dire. I'd be interested in seeing some numbers and trends over the past few months, if you've got them.

It's pretty annoying. I'll be doing another major update including Tracker reports soon as this is the month I had thought things would start to break down, and even though it didn't happen for the reasons I'd imagined, it is happening now. Really I guess this is what was happening in the war as well, except the Allies were hitting a wider range of industrial targets including airframe factories and ports and shipyards.

[obvert]

Spent most of the evening copying Super-8 films to digital as a present for mom. Quite an odd feeling watching videos showing my first year of life, including days after being born.

My grandmother on my mom's side filmed nearly everything. I think it might be here I get my obsession for images. I also realize it's a bit overwhelming for the people there. Feels very formal like no one can relax when the camera is out.

Love the sound of the projector. It also has a viewing screen or it can be projected out onto another surface. Very handy for copying. I just bought it off E-Bay and the older couple who sold it included some hot footage of the Red Arrows from the early 80s! Looks amazing!

Anyway, hopefully mom will be happy at Christmas. I have to remember to include a box of tissues!

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Now you know why I prefer to use Kate/Jill/Grace for my kami's*. 9/10 range is imperative as I know I have to be able to cover Okinawa.

Nemo took Okinawa back. Don't remember if he went into Naha or Nago first. If you look at those 2 scenarios, there are several ID's on Okinawa ... can't remember how many now. You know Nemo, he through everything there. Didn't care about losses, and he had a lot. Succeeded. Wish the game had lasted longer because would have been interesting to see how/if the allies recovered.


*And of course the Frank "b" model and George. Both are needed for range for escort. The Ki-83 is also a choice here, but not one that I often make ... I'm too frugal ... [;)]

So to put this in perspective Jocke landed 10+ divisions and other stuff including all kinds of massive engineers, tanks, arty and HQs. Over 5000AV. To take something like that back would mean easily 3x the amount in Japanese troops!!! No way! Of course some would be moved out in the future, but it doesn't matter who is running the show here, it could be a team of rader and Nemo, there is no chance to take back Okinawa.

So yes, great planes for kamis, but only IJN. I am using most of these for conventional strikes still as the pilots are decent. This kind of limits the numbers though if those are your only strike planes? No IJAAF types?

So far I have about 30% of the 2E IJAAF groups changed to kamis. About 15% of the DB IJN groups. A few Oscar groups. But I don't have the big training groups that can be used yet. Only the 10 plane groups, and they're training one set of pilots before anything else. I can't see them being very useful in the beta either.

I think the kinds of strikes you're thinking of come only after all of the later training groups arrive and all other planes can be used as sweep and escorts. It will be May before anything like that is even possible, and who knows if I'll have supply to make a strike that big by then?

IJA provides the escorts (Frank). IJN provides the strikes. Since by this time, I would plan for most of my CV groups to be available as their CV bases would be fish reefs, which means I have quite a few groups available (+20). Most of those planes are low SR, so they get used and then re-filled pretty quick. Its the escorts which you need so many of, call it 40 full-size (49 plane) Fighter groups to be able to take on the Allied Death Star. And of course the biggest challenge is scavenging up enough AF ENG units to actually base all of these groups ... Best place is Taihoku (9 hex from either Okinawa base), but that is risky and is hard to accomplish. Shanghai is 9 hex to the one base ...

I don't use too many 2E's as kami's ... too expensive and I've never had good success with them completing their attacks.

[mind_messing]

Obvert, would you at this late stage recommend significant expansion of HI in Singapore, seeing as it's a pretty secure base for at least two game years?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Obvert, would you at this late stage recommend significant expansion of HI in Singapore, seeing as it's a pretty secure base for at least two game years?

I increased HI in Singers, Soerabaja, Batavia, Saigon and Georgetown. It depends on what your plans are and what scenario you're playing. I think Scen 1 is more supply needy, whereas Scen 2 with extra pilot costs might be more HI needy.

I think it takes three years to make back the cost of the increases. I probably actually came out slightly ahead in supply but much better in HI. Even now Singers is still making HI points while it's isolated and cut off in the DEI. Silly but it works in game. I can make planes in Tokyo with points created in Singapore! [;)]

[CaptBeefheart]

Just wanted to let you know that I'm also reading both AARs and hope you two take this to failure for the edification of the community. My comments on Joc's AAR are related to game mechanics or beer. On this one, I'll keep it to game mechanics or scotch, although recently I had some Penderyn, a Welsh whisky, which went down quite well at the British Embassy pub.

Regarding overstacking, I used to do it a lot against the AI. You have to bring more supplies to the party, but it is possible with the level of shipping available to the good guys.

Cheers,
CC

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

IJA provides the escorts (Frank). IJN provides the strikes. Since by this time, I would plan for most of my CV groups to be available as their CV bases would be fish reefs, which means I have quite a few groups available (+20). Most of those planes are low SR, so they get used and then re-filled pretty quick. Its the escorts which you need so many of, call it 40 full-size (49 plane) Fighter groups to be able to take on the Allied Death Star. And of course the biggest challenge is scavenging up enough AF ENG units to actually base all of these groups ... Best place is Taihoku (9 hex from either Okinawa base), but that is risky and is hard to accomplish. Shanghai is 9 hex to the one base ...

I don't use too many 2E's as kami's ... too expensive and I've never had good success with them completing their attacks.

I hear ya Pax. I do have about 12 decks still around, and those are actually the most deadly semi-coodinating strikes I can make right now.

The issue I'll be facing soon as well is not enough planes to fill out the new LB groups that arrive. I had hoped to build a ton of the Ki-115, but that is looking like only 30 a month now.

So I have several options.

1. Use the old Sonias, Marys, Anns and Idas (gasp) to fill out these units. Mostly no range.

2. Use what comes with them, mostly bi-planes and trainers (gasp and choke a little).

3. Use a combo of the Ki-115 and 2E planes after converting groups to 2E.

4. Fill with Oscars???

Option 4 wins for me if possible. If not ...

... at least i'm building a decent amount of 2E planes, and I'm not at all worried about running out of HI (as I won't make it to 46 anyway, and my HI pool is still going up!!!). It'l still only be a one or two shot deal. Option 3 seems viable and I can always rely on options 1 and 2 after exhausting option 3 anyway if option 4 doesn't work. Yes? [:)]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

Just wanted to let you know that I'm also reading both AARs and hope you two take this to failure for the edification of the community. My comments on Joc's AAR are related to game mechanics or beer. On this one, I'll keep it to game mechanics or scotch, although recently I had some Penderyn, a Welsh whisky, which went down quite well at the British Embassy pub.

Regarding overstacking, I used to do it a lot against the AI. You have to bring more supplies to the party, but it is possible with the level of shipping available to the good guys.

Cheers,
CC

I'll definitely keep it going. We've been through too much to stop now. It's interesting how little I have to worry about the actual details now, as virtually anything I can do could be exploited by Allied counters. I still get meticulous every few turns, just not as much as I used to do.

So it's really about trying enough stuff that something either catches him off guard or slips through. Probably similar to the last days of the DEI looking for that one naval strike or the few Stringbag TT hits on a CA or CV.

As for the Scotch, that is one I haven't tried. Is it more on the smoky side or more caramel/honey toned?

I like all types so if it's good I'm happy to give it a go. My recent purchases included a Balvenie, a Dalwhinnie (both at 20% off on special at Waitrose), and the Nikka. I've always loved Balvenie. Great balance of flavors. Jocke likes the big bold smoke of Laphroig and Ardbeg. I like the rich smokiness of Lagavulin slightly better and that added seaweedy taste.

As the red dots show below, though, I enjoy most styles equally! [:D]

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]6 April 1945[/font]
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]STRAT BOMBING:[/font] A big set of combined strikes hit Nagasaki, Fukuoka and Hiroshima. The B-29B made it's first appearance and did meet some NF, getting a number shot down. I think around 8-10 on the day. They did seem to defend themselves though as well, hitting a few NF during the reply with their one turret. Lotsa bombs on the 'B' though which means lotsa HI hit even though they were very few in number.

In Nagasaki the B-29-1 did run into some more NF and some decent flak. Fukuoka was basically a free shot. A lot of HI lost there. Glad though because the we're almost out of fuel anyway and the LI is really the precious stuff now.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]CHINA: [/font] The Allies get yet another 1:2 attack near Paoshan. Love it! Our troops are starting to break down though as now even the bombers from Hanoi are striking over here in addition to the several hundred from Ledo. However, the opportunity cost of breaking down 5 units in the Himalayas in April 45 with the entire Allied bombing force is pretty high! I'm not sure yet if the Chinese are getting flown supplies, as they haven't decided to cross into Kweiyang, but the Allied troops to the SE in China are surely the main thrust for now.

The tanks at Wuchow begin moving out of the city moving toward our current small blockade in the forest. I'm sure the Hanoi bombers will begin here soon. I'l have only two units at first, and if they hold, others will follow. I like this route begin taken much better than a move through the clear toward Canton.

No more supply will come into China, and all supply centers have been destroyed. I just read recently in the book on the war in China that when Ichigo began the Japanese had ammo good for two years (!!!) and fuel for six months for 200 bombers. I guess 4Es couldn't vaporize it all in airfield strikes in the war. [:D]

Most everything not Army HQ, infantry or arty is now out of the Canton - Hong Kong area. Now it's a defense to the last man. all of the extra stuff will be sent to Fusan, then across to Fukuoka to help get air support especially for large kami strikes to Kyushu bases.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]HOME ISLANDS: [/font] Already reeling from a supply shortage, now the Beasts are back. I hope to guess right a few times, enough to take down a number of planes and hope that makes strikes more sporadic. Still a month or two away from the Randy Ic NF.

I sent in the works to Amami-Oshima. Three DD flotillas and three BB SAGs, but alas all Allied ships were gone already during the night phase. Jocke may not have even known what actually was coming unless he got good info from night search. All ships were back to Kyushu by morning.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR April 6, 45
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Air attack on Fukuoka , at 103,57

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 76 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 24

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Heavy Industry hits 10

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet
City Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Nagasaki/Sasebo , at 102,58

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 8

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 23

Japanese aircraft losses
J1N1-Sa Irving: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 2 damaged
B-29-1 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Light Industry hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-29-1 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet
City Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Hiroshima/Kure , at 106,58

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 32 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 11
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah x 7

Allied aircraft
B-29B Superfort x 5

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29B Superfort: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged
B-29B Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B-29B Superfort bombing from 9000 feet
City Attack: 36 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 40th Division, at 67,44 , near Paoshan

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 6
B-24J Liberator x 6
B-17F Fortress x 3
B-24J Liberator x 121
B-25D1 Mitchell x 9
B-25G Mitchell x 6
B-25H Mitchell x 6
B-25J1 Mitchell x 50
B-25J11 Mitchell x 38
P-38J Lightning x 27
P-38L Lightning x 55
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 15
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 27
PBJ-1H Mitchell x 3
PBJ-1J Mitchell x 3

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
447 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 56 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
13 x PBJ-1D Mitchell bombing from 6000 feet *
Ground Attack: 3 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 67,44 (near Paoshan)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 46032 troops, 872 guns, 539 vehicles, Assault Value = 1334

Defending force 31006 troops, 348 guns, 164 vehicles, Assault Value = 743

Allied adjusted assault: 1070

Japanese adjusted defense: 1180

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), disruption(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1363 casualties reported
Squads: 44 destroyed, 46 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Vehicles lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
721 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 83 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 29 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 25 disabled
Guns lost 23 (1 destroyed, 22 disabled)

Assaulting units:
23rd Indian Division
7th Indian Division
25th Indian Division
8th New Chinese Corps
2nd West African AA Regiment
1st Burma Auxiliary AA Regiment
117th RAF Base Force
3rd West African AA Regiment
4th West African AA Regiment
88th Medium Regiment
23rd AA Bde
56th Heavy Regiment
104th RAF Base Force
2nd HK&S Heavy AA Regiment

Defending units:
19th Ind.Mixed Brigade
40th Division
104th Division
37th Division
1st Army

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/font]

Reinforcements:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]ML G-603 arrives at Hiroshima/Kure
Yokosuka Ku S-2 arrives at Fukuoka
51st Army arrives at Utsonomiya
52nd Army arrives at Chiba
53rd Army arrives at Yokohama/Yokosuka
55th Army arrives at Kochi
57th Army arrives at Oita
58th Army arrives at Keijo
35th Ind. Hvy.Art. Battalion arrives at Utsonomiya
36th Ind. Hvy.Art. Battalion arrives at Yokohama/Yokosuka
37th Ind. Hvy.Art. Battalion arrives at Nagoya
24th RF Gun Battalion arrives at Chiba
27th RF Gun Battalion arrives at Tokyo
102nd AA Regiment arrives at Tokyo
93rd JAAF AF Bn arrives at Tokyo
188th JAAF AF Bn arrives at Tokyo
E Habuto arrives at Tokyo
APD T-16 arrives at Yokohama/Yokosuka[/font]

Losses: none.

Ships Sunk: none.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[font="Trebuchet MS"]LR CAP and the Tojo's over Amami may have gotten a good haul of P-38s. Only thing I can see that got them. Nice to see a number of B-29s on this list, but it certainly is not a high cost for another 100 HI destroyed and another 20 LI gone. Now, though, actually, the LI is pure gold, so I hope the HI continues to be targeted. [/font]
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: obvert

As the red dots show below, though, there are few styles I've tried that I haven't enjoyed! [:D]

My Scotch of choice is Glenmorangie and I see it's on your dislike list [:(]. I shy away from the peaty/bog flavoured. I much prefer it to either Glenfiddich or Glenlivet despite their popularity. I've tried Talisker, but I think if I just licked the tree out back I'd get the same experience. [:D]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: obvert

As the red dots show below, though, there are few styles I've tried that I haven't enjoyed! [:D]

My Scotch of choice is Glenmorangie and I see it's on your dislike list [:(]. I shy away from the peaty/bog flavoured. I much prefer it to either Glenfiddich or Glenlivet despite their popularity. I've tried Talisker, but I think if I just licked the tree out back I'd get the same experience. [:D]

I may have not made it very clear what the red dots are about. Those are ones I've tried and LIKE! Just trying to show that i'm not in any one corner of the scotch preference scales.

The emptying of my Glenmorangie bottle (during the last days of the Manila siege [:D]) made me go out and look for another good bottles. That's when I ran into the sale! I try to keep a few around, just to have some variety, but sales are dangerous![:-]

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: obvert

I may have not made it very clear what the red dots are about. Those are ones I've tried and LIKE! Just trying to show that i'm not in any one corner of the scotch preference scales.

The emptying of my Glenmorangie bottle (during the last days of the Manila siege [:D]) made me go out and look for another good bottles. That's when I ran into the sale! I try to keep a few around, just to have some variety, but sales are dangerous![:-]

Well, that does clear it up [;)]. I think my current bottle is on it's last legs so I think I'll go get myself a new bottle in my travels this week. Don't mention sales! For you it's Scotch, and mine is of course models. Sometimes the internet is bad for me. [:D]

[FeurerKrieg]

ow, though, actually, the LI is pure gold, so I hope the HI continues to be targeted.

Interesting. I've always assumed that if I expanded production it should be HI since the HI gets the supply too. But I hadn't thought about the late war and the fact that if you run out of fuel, that HI is useless.

How are resources in the Home Islands?

And, would you then suggest that if I'm going to spend supplies on expansion that I should do it on LI in the Home Islands? I'm going to start this now to maximize the return on the supply repair cost - it is early 42 in my game, so if I survive until 45 I'll have made a little bit back - more if it goes longer of course.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg

Interesting. I've always assumed that if I expanded production it should be HI since the HI gets the supply too. But I hadn't thought about the late war and the fact that if you run out of fuel, that HI is useless.

How are resources in the Home Islands?

And, would you then suggest that if I'm going to spend supplies on expansion that I should do it on LI in the Home Islands? I'm going to start this now to maximize the return on the supply repair cost - it is early 42 in my game, so if I survive until 45 I'll have made a little bit back - more if it goes longer of course.

Expanding LI is a hot debate. There are those that say never expand LI and those that say expand it in some form. I think both views have merit, but it depends how you play Japan and whether it fits into your overall style of play. Could you use the supply needed for expanding LI elsewhere is the first question to ask yourself. Are you undermining your operations by using supply to expand? If you expand LI in the Home Islands you'll need to import more resources and use more fuel to do so. If you expand LI elsewhere, you run the risk of early destruction and never recuperating your expenditure.

You really have to think it through and decide what is best to meet your needs. It's not something to take on lightly. Personally I think expanding LI in moderation is a good idea, but you will have to give something up in return. That's always the way with Japan, it's either pay early or late for doing things differently, but you'll always pay. [:D]

[FeurerKrieg]

Yea, I agree it requires thought. I always felt if you are going to any expansion of HI/LI it needs to be in 42 or forget it. I hadn't factored in the situation that we are seeing in this game though.

So now I'm thinking that outside of the Home Islands, HI expansion is warranted due to the fact that it can continue to use local fuel/resource production once cut off. In contrast, in the Home Islands, late game supply needs are causing me to think LI expansion would be better there.

Also, I should mention I'm playing DBB scenario 28, so I get no supply from refineries.