Wild Sheep Chase - obvert (J) vs JocMeister (A)

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg

Yea, I agree it requires thought. I always felt if you are going to any expansion of HI/LI it needs to be in 42 or forget it. I hadn't factored in the situation that we are seeing in this game though.

So now I'm thinking that outside of the Home Islands, HI expansion is warranted due to the fact that it can continue to use local fuel/resource production once cut off. In contrast, in the Home Islands, late game supply needs are causing me to think LI expansion would be better there.

Also, I should mention I'm playing DBB scenario 28, so I get no supply from refineries.

Not to mention, it can save you Fuel for the same amount of HI since you won't have to ship it as far.

In terms of supply, you need 1100 days to break even on LI expansion. So if you want to be in the black on supply expenditure on 1/1/45, you have to expand on 1/1/42. You need 550 days to break even on HI expansion, but you'll also burn up your fuel/oil faster. Resources you have plenty of, so that's not a consideration for the LI expansion.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg

ow, though, actually, the LI is pure gold, so I hope the HI continues to be targeted.

Interesting. I've always assumed that if I expanded production it should be HI since the HI gets the supply too. But I hadn't thought about the late war and the fact that if you run out of fuel, that HI is useless.

How are resources in the Home Islands?

And, would you then suggest that if I'm going to spend supplies on expansion that I should do it on LI in the Home Islands? I'm going to start this now to maximize the return on the supply repair cost - it is early 42 in my game, so if I survive until 45 I'll have made a little bit back - more if it goes longer of course.

I'll get a tracker update up soon, but last I checked they were enough for 4-5 months.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

In terms of supply, you need 1100 days to break even on LI expansion. So if you want to be in the black on supply expenditure on 1/1/45, you have to expand on 1/1/42. You need 550 days to break even on HI expansion, but you'll also burn up your fuel/oil faster. Resources you have plenty of, so that's not a consideration for the LI expansion.

Not necessarily and this is something I think is often overlooked. An example is over spending on air expansion. I spent too much on my A6M2 factory to the tune of 50k worth of supply. That's 45.5 LI that could have been expanded and paid off within 50 days. Why only fifty and not 1100 days/LI point? Well I don't spend the 50k on expanding the A6M2 factory of course. Voodoo economics? Sure [:D]. I guess the point I'm trying to make is you can pay for LI expansion in other ways and be in the black much sooner, you just have to give something up as I mentioned before. I know for a fact that if I eliminate a number of mistakes I made production wise in my AAR I could have spent 150k supply for LI expansion instead. I think paying for LI expansion has to be looked at differently. It you make some smart choices and streamline your production there's supply available to expand LI which might take some strain off the late game. Maybe [;)].

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg

Yea, I agree it requires thought. I always felt if you are going to any expansion of HI/LI it needs to be in 42 or forget it. I hadn't factored in the situation that we are seeing in this game though.

So now I'm thinking that outside of the Home Islands, HI expansion is warranted due to the fact that it can continue to use local fuel/resource production once cut off. In contrast, in the Home Islands, late game supply needs are causing me to think LI expansion would be better there.

Also, I should mention I'm playing DBB scenario 28, so I get no supply from refineries.

Not to mention, it can save you Fuel for the same amount of HI since you won't have to ship it as far.

In terms of supply, you need 1100 days to break even on LI expansion. So if you want to be in the black on supply expenditure on 1/1/45, you have to expand on 1/1/42. You need 550 days to break even on HI expansion, but you'll also burn up your fuel/oil faster. Resources you have plenty of, so that's not a consideration for the LI expansion.

Why I increased HI on Java, Malaya, Thailand and in Indochina.

The LI would be pretty good right now. Probably the best place for it would be in Manchuria. Off the strat bombing radar so far and easy shipping of supply to the HI from Fusan while resources are local. There is a huge glut now that every kind of industry in China is toast.

Hokkaido would be good as well, and the little base in Japan that have no manpower or other industry and would likely be bombed last. I think Joseph made a list a while back?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

In terms of supply, you need 1100 days to break even on LI expansion. So if you want to be in the black on supply expenditure on 1/1/45, you have to expand on 1/1/42. You need 550 days to break even on HI expansion, but you'll also burn up your fuel/oil faster. Resources you have plenty of, so that's not a consideration for the LI expansion.

Not necessarily and this is something I think is often overlooked. An example is over spending on air expansion. I spent too much on my A6M2 factory to the tune of 50k worth of supply. That's 45.5 LI that could have been expanded and paid off within 50 days. Why only fifty and not 1100 days/LI point? Well I don't spend the 50k on expanding the A6M2 factory of course. Voodoo economics? Sure [:D]. I guess the point I'm trying to make is you can pay for LI expansion in other ways and be in the black much sooner, you just have to give something up as I mentioned before. I know for a fact that if I eliminate a number of mistakes I made production wise in my AAR I could have spent 150k supply for LI expansion instead. I think paying for LI expansion has to be looked at differently. It you make some smart choices and streamline your production there's supply available to expand LI which might take some strain off the late game. Maybe [;)].

I look at it like this: if I can make those savings anyway on my A6M production, then I should do so, regardless of what I do with the supply saved, for efficiency's sake. Therefore, cutting back elsewhere in order to pay for LI doesn't make sense to me. If I'm cutting back elsewhere, it's because I don't need the production. If I'd rather have the supply than expand the factory, then I just don't expand the factory. If I would then rather invest that saved supply into an expansion that will pay off in 1100 days, then I consider it on its own merits. If I don't expand, I'll have 1100 more supply points in my stockpile right away vs. if I did expand. Or 550 more than if I expanded, 550 days from now. Or only 100 more, 3 years from now.

But to each their own tricks for maximizing their efficiency.

[catwhoorg]

Rather partial to a Macallan myself.

In that diagram I'm very much on the rich side, and Oban is as normally as smoky as I get.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

In terms of supply, you need 1100 days to break even on LI expansion. So if you want to be in the black on supply expenditure on 1/1/45, you have to expand on 1/1/42. You need 550 days to break even on HI expansion, but you'll also burn up your fuel/oil faster. Resources you have plenty of, so that's not a consideration for the LI expansion.

Not necessarily and this is something I think is often overlooked. An example is over spending on air expansion. I spent too much on my A6M2 factory to the tune of 50k worth of supply. That's 45.5 LI that could have been expanded and paid off within 50 days. Why only fifty and not 1100 days/LI point? Well I don't spend the 50k on expanding the A6M2 factory of course. Voodoo economics? Sure [:D]. I guess the point I'm trying to make is you can pay for LI expansion in other ways and be in the black much sooner, you just have to give something up as I mentioned before. I know for a fact that if I eliminate a number of mistakes I made production wise in my AAR I could have spent 150k supply for LI expansion instead. I think paying for LI expansion has to be looked at differently. It you make some smart choices and streamline your production there's supply available to expand LI which might take some strain off the late game. Maybe [;)].

I look at it like this: if I can make those savings anyway on my A6M production, then I should do so, regardless of what I do with the supply saved, for efficiency's sake. Therefore, cutting back elsewhere in order to pay for LI doesn't make sense to me. If I'm cutting back elsewhere, it's because I don't need the production. If I'd rather have the supply than expand the factory, then I just don't expand the factory. If I would then rather invest that saved supply into an expansion that will pay off in 1100 days, then I consider it on its own merits. If I don't expand, I'll have 1100 more supply points in my stockpile right away vs. if I did expand. Or 550 more than if I expanded, 550 days from now. Or only 100 more, 3 years from now.

But to each their own tricks for maximizing their efficiency.

Why not expand HI in the DEI heavily, then expand LI in the Home Islands that will be paid for by the extra supply from the DEI you don't have to ship down there and the fuel saved for not having to ship the fuel to the HI?

[FeurerKrieg]

This is probably the short version of what I am going to do.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Why not expand HI in the DEI heavily, then expand LI in the Home Islands that will be paid for by the extra supply from the DEI you don't have to ship down there and the fuel saved for not having to ship the fuel to the HI?

This is it exactly. You can pay for the LI expansion in any number of ways. I'm saying it's misleading to just say it's going to take you 1100 days to recover the expenditure, it doesn't if you pay by other means or make different choices. If you make those decisions right from day one as Lokasenna says, then I'd rather invest that 1100 supply into expanding LI so it's there for me in the late game rather than have it sitting around doing nothing for 3 years if I'm not going to use it anyway. LI expansion is an investment, it's that simple. You either invest for the late game, or hope your initial supply generating capacity lasts you for the entire war.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: catwhoorg

Rather partial to a Macallan myself.

In that diagram I'm very much on the rich side, and Oban is as normally as smoky as I get.

Oban is so well known and liked, and yet for some reason I just don't love it. It's a kind of fruity something I taste I think.

Macallan is a default as they serve it everywhere an fit rolls over the tongue so easily.

I have a food snobby friend who insist good scotch needs a drop of water to 'open up.' I usually have it either neat or with one ice cube.

How does everyone else drink their favorites?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon



Not necessarily and this is something I think is often overlooked. An example is over spending on air expansion. I spent too much on my A6M2 factory to the tune of 50k worth of supply. That's 45.5 LI that could have been expanded and paid off within 50 days. Why only fifty and not 1100 days/LI point? Well I don't spend the 50k on expanding the A6M2 factory of course. Voodoo economics? Sure [:D]. I guess the point I'm trying to make is you can pay for LI expansion in other ways and be in the black much sooner, you just have to give something up as I mentioned before. I know for a fact that if I eliminate a number of mistakes I made production wise in my AAR I could have spent 150k supply for LI expansion instead. I think paying for LI expansion has to be looked at differently. It you make some smart choices and streamline your production there's supply available to expand LI which might take some strain off the late game. Maybe [;)].

I look at it like this: if I can make those savings anyway on my A6M production, then I should do so, regardless of what I do with the supply saved, for efficiency's sake. Therefore, cutting back elsewhere in order to pay for LI doesn't make sense to me. If I'm cutting back elsewhere, it's because I don't need the production. If I'd rather have the supply than expand the factory, then I just don't expand the factory. If I would then rather invest that saved supply into an expansion that will pay off in 1100 days, then I consider it on its own merits. If I don't expand, I'll have 1100 more supply points in my stockpile right away vs. if I did expand. Or 550 more than if I expanded, 550 days from now. Or only 100 more, 3 years from now.

But to each their own tricks for maximizing their efficiency.

Why not expand HI in the DEI heavily, then expand LI in the Home Islands that will be paid for by the extra supply from the DEI you don't have to ship down there and the fuel saved for not having to ship the fuel to the HI?

Ok, that's valid [;)]. I latched onto the aircraft factory example as something I wouldn't do.

I don't know what your definition of "heavily" is in the DEI, but I wouldn't expand past its limits. Which is to say, not very much expansion. I wouldn't expand the refineries, really, so you'll still be shipping Oil (which you'd be doing anyway, given Japan's deficit). I would expand the HI to match the refinery output, but no further. In my AI game, I expanded the HI on Java to almost match the refinery output of Java but didn't include Balikpapan, as that Fuel was earmarked for fleet operations. I didn't expand quite all the way to the refinery production because I wanted my ships to refuel at Java without slowly depleting the stocks of Fuel there and without having to ship Fuel from Balikpapan or PBangers to Java.

I actually find that, even without expanding the HI in Java, I don't have to ship Supply to the DEI after the early expansion phase. But I haven't had a human player knocking on the DEI's door, so I probably don't know anything.

[catwhoorg]

Always neat for single malts.

I do occasionally mix a blend with some Ginger Wine on a cold winters evening. Not that you have many in Atlanta, but when I was in Dundee...

[CaptBeefheart]

I like one ice cube to "open it up." A friend of mine whose opinion I respect on that taught me. Luckily the local British Embassy has an excellent single-malt selection at pretty reasonable prices and I've tried most of those, at least the 10s and 12s, on the chart.

I'd put Penderyn, which is actually a "welsh," not scotch, near the Bunnahabhain. Did a Japanese single-malt tasting the other month and really liked the Hibiki 21. Alas, even in the U.S. it's something like $250 a bottle.

Cheers,
CC

[PaxMondo]

If you expand HI in the DEI, but run out of fuel before your HI industry in completely shutdown, one could argue that you wasted supply with the expansion. Your optimal amount of HI production is that you run out of fuel at the same time the B-29's dismember your final factory. Yes, there is some fuel savings for shipment ... but that comes at 1000 supply. Ask Obvert if he could use some supply now.

IJ economy is easy to over expand in '42. Be it AC factories or HI expansion. Either way, you are burning up supply @ 1000/factory that you cannot afford in the long run. This is why so many late games right now are so short of supply. Refer back to the MikeS AAR's. He increases factories one or two at a time, not one or two hundred. Just because you can put 20x30 factories researching Shinden doesn't mean you should, even if you get the plane in '43. That cost you 660,000 supply. Ditto all the other models. I routinely see IJ players with 91x30 AC factories ... that means that they have spent at least 1,500,000 supply not including model changes and the engine factory expansions to match ... Wow. THe IJ economy cannot support these types of supply expenditures and that is why IRL they did not do it ... it took them until 1945 to get to +2000 AC/month. Not in 1942 ... It will do you no good to have 25000 AC in 1945 if you have no supply. You cannot fight without supply, and you need LOTS of it. I (Mike did too) checked some of my old games ... I've never had less than 1M more supply than HI into '45 ... usually its more like 2M more (so 7M supply, 5M HI). Think through your ecxonomy carefully ...

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

If you expand HI in the DEI, but run out of fuel before your HI industry in completely shutdown, one could argue that you wasted supply with the expansion. Your optimal amount of HI production is that you run out of fuel at the same time the B-29's dismember your final factory. Yes, there is some fuel savings for shipment ... but that comes at 1000 supply. Ask Obvert if he could use some supply now.

IJ economy is easy to over expand in '42. Be it AC factories or HI expansion. Either way, you are burning up supply @ 1000/factory that you cannot afford in the long run. This is why so many late games right now are so short of supply. Refer back to the MikeS AAR's. He increases factories one or two at a time, not one or two hundred. Just because you can put 20x30 factories researching Shinden doesn't mean you should, even if you get the plane in '43. That cost you 660,000 supply. Ditto all the other models. I routinely see IJ players with 91x30 AC factories ... that means that they have spent at least 1,500,000 supply not including model changes and the engine factory expansions to match ... Wow. THe IJ economy cannot support these types of supply expenditures and that is why IRL they did not do it ... it took them until 1945 to get to +2000 AC/month. Not in 1942 ... It will do you no good to have 25000 AC in 1945 if you have no supply. You cannot fight without supply, and you need LOTS of it. I (Mike did too) checked some of my old games ... I've never had less than 1M more supply than HI into '45 ... usually its more like 2M more (so 7M supply, 5M HI). Think through your ecxonomy carefully ...

PS: I need to add that I rarely have built HI (I actually cannot recall having done so, but maybe I did once) ... there is no need. If I need HI, I take it, I do not build it. Building HI only increases your HI pool faster, it NEVER gives you more HI. Since you should always have a large HI pool, there is no need to build it faster ... so long as it is built, nothing more is needed.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

I like one ice cube to "open it up." A friend of mine whose opinion I respect on that taught me. Luckily the local British Embassy has an excellent single-malt selection at pretty reasonable prices and I've tried most of those, at least the 10s and 12s, on the chart.

I'd put Penderyn, which is actually a "welsh," not scotch, near the Bunnahabhain. Did a Japanese single-malt tasting the other month and really liked the Hibiki 21. Alas, even in the U.S. it's something like $250 a bottle.

Cheers,
CC

I was in Berlin a while back and a fellow traveller came into the hotel lobby late as I was using the internet there. (Probably checking the AE forum!) [:D]

He brought out a bottle of Hibiki 21! Offered me a glass, then a few more. We had a good long talk and topped up the hangover for the next morning. Very good stuff.

[CaptBeefheart]

ORIGINAL: obvert

I was in Berlin a while back and a fellow traveller came into the hotel lobby late as I was using the internet there. (Probably checking the AE forum!) [:D]

He brought out a bottle of Hibiki 21! Offered me a glass, then a few more. We had a good long talk and topped up the hangover for the next morning. Very good stuff.

Wow, that story brings a tear to my eye. That's easily the best whiskey I've ever tried.

Cheers,
CC

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

If you expand HI in the DEI, but run out of fuel before your HI industry in completely shutdown, one could argue that you wasted supply with the expansion. Your optimal amount of HI production is that you run out of fuel at the same time the B-29's dismember your final factory. Yes, there is some fuel savings for shipment ... but that comes at 1000 supply. Ask Obvert if he could use some supply now.

IJ economy is easy to over expand in '42. Be it AC factories or HI expansion. Either way, you are burning up supply @ 1000/factory that you cannot afford in the long run. This is why so many late games right now are so short of supply. Refer back to the MikeS AAR's. He increases factories one or two at a time, not one or two hundred. Just because you can put 20x30 factories researching Shinden doesn't mean you should, even if you get the plane in '43. That cost you 660,000 supply. Ditto all the other models. I routinely see IJ players with 91x30 AC factories ... that means that they have spent at least 1,500,000 supply not including model changes and the engine factory expansions to match ... Wow. THe IJ economy cannot support these types of supply expenditures and that is why IRL they did not do it ... it took them until 1945 to get to +2000 AC/month. Not in 1942 ... It will do you no good to have 25000 AC in 1945 if you have no supply. You cannot fight without supply, and you need LOTS of it. I (Mike did too) checked some of my old games ... I've never had less than 1M more supply than HI into '45 ... usually its more like 2M more (so 7M supply, 5M HI). Think through your ecxonomy carefully ...

Curiously, could you post some shots of what you do have in 42 building, and researching? I'm trying to get an idea of how you would set that up to both prepare for the long haul and not over expand.

Also, are these games you reference in PBEM, and did you sit back and wait after the DEI was captured or did you push further?

So many factors determine supply usage. Factory expansion is one, but I'd have to say that in China I used a huge amount of supply that ended up being only partially justified due to our subsequent agreement to keep China a factor with a reserve zone. I'm happy the game kept going, but had I captured the industry in the center the supply usage might have been made up a lot more and justified by never having to send more there to fight again, as I have in the current continuation of the game.

Also, in those games how soon did your opponent get into bombing range and start strat bombing manpower? That eats supply as del as the factories that make it. I don't now if having a large pile in Tokyo and/or Osaka would have saved me here since that would have been subject to burning up too.

In PBEM the key is making it to 45!! There are quite a few games that end well before this, and some that seem to be going fine and dribble into 45 before falling part completely.

As we were talking earlier in this AAR about LI even Mike Solli was considering massive expenditures to increase LI so as to have a cushion of production in the HI in late game. I think Pax that you're one of the few IJ players active in these discussions that does have extensive experience of 45, so you can help us a lot to figure out how to prepare well for it. If you had so much HI and supply what did you give up? What did you not do? How did you make it to the end?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

ORIGINAL: obvert

I was in Berlin a while back and a fellow traveller came into the hotel lobby late as I was using the internet there. (Probably checking the AE forum!) [:D]

He brought out a bottle of Hibiki 21! Offered me a glass, then a few more. We had a good long talk and topped up the hangover for the next morning. Very good stuff.

Wow, that story brings a tear to my eye. That's easily the best whiskey I've ever tried.

Cheers,
CC

I gave a Balvenie 21 to a friend for his wedding ,and he graciously let me sip it with him later. That was incredible. One of those you can drink for an hour where every drop fills your whole mouth with flavor.

Now I want to try this one!

http://uk.thebalvenie.com/our-range/fifty-aged-50-years

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: obvert

... in China I used a huge amount of supply that ended up being only partially justified due to our subsequent agreement to keep China a factor with a reserve zone. I'm happy the game kept going,

That was a HUGE gift you gave him at the time, one that I do not think he fully appreciates yet. And yes, that one alone complicates the your supply situation a lot.

I'll try and dig up some old savegames. Yes, I only play against the AI (as you know). No, I never sit back because against my opponent (Andy AI) in the scenarios I play (Nasty or Nasty Nasty Ironman) you can't. I face Essex class beginning on Dec 7, 1941 and Iowa and Alaska class show up in '42.[;)]

He starts night Strat Bombing from China at 5000 ft usually on Dec 10, 1941. [X(] It makes the china campaign imperative. It is also very much more difficult as most bases have organic supply added to them. I cannot starve a base, I have to assemble enough AV to take it. Wenchow is critical early on given its distance to the HI, and it is a VERY hard nut to crack. It has +2000 AV and one of the Corps is at full strength and +50 exp, and of course Wenchow has a lot of internal supply generation. I have to put lilterally, every bomber I own on it along with all of the AV I can find to take it by mid-Jan. And you still have to stay on a tight time table in the DEI as all of those bases get reinforcements in Q1Y42. If you delay your DEI op's, you start to face large AV's in ALL of the oil centers. Yeah, its challenging ... not PBEM by any means, but still challenging.

Here are some AC factory numbers for '42 for my next game that I am getting ready to start (These are combined IJA/IJN numbers in monthly production)
1E fighters: 180
1E bombers: 120
2E Bombers: 120

R&D (These are mostly 6x30 factories, a couple might be only 3x30).
Tojo
Helen
Frank
Sam
George

I'll start my 4th gen fighter R&D late '42. That will be Shinden and either Ki-83 or Ki-202 ... haven't decided yet on the IJA model. Always a tough choice for me. Karyu is much faster and a lot more deadly in defense. But that means my only escort fighter will be the George which in '45 is just VP's to be harvested. The Ki-83 gives me a viable escort for counter attacks ... It is always a tough choice for me ... historically, i decide in game depending upon how my CV actions have gone.

While this is against the AI, I am also facing TBolts/Stangs/Spits FAR earlier and in far greater numbers than a stock game. Also, Allied pilots enter the game at ~60 exp ... so my training programs are crucial.

Anyway, you can see that I spend less than 300K supply on R&D ... and for production including engines, way less than a 1M in '42. HI supply never drops below 1.25M and after Feb 42 is always rising. HI pools start to rise in about March 42 and by July I'm banking about 1800/day.

There's my blueprint. Totally stolen from Mike Solli +4 years ago. I've tweaked it a bit, but not much. I turn off Merchant building sooner than he does, R&D a little less maybe, but essentially it is Mike Solli.