Wild Sheep Chase - obvert (J) vs JocMeister (A)

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SqzMyLemon
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by SqzMyLemon »

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

HI supply never drops below 1.25M and after Feb 42 is always rising. HI pools start to rise in about March 42 and by July I'm banking about 1800/day.

There's my blueprint. Totally stolen from Mike Solli +4 years ago. I've tweaked it a bit, but not much.

How much supply do you have stockpiled in Japan by the end of 42 under these conditions Pax? I'm curious to compare the numbers. For interests sake I'm at Nov. 25/42 and I have 1.4 million HI banked (increasing roughly 4k/day) and 1.5 million supply (increasing 5-12k/day) in Japan.
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by obvert »

Cool. Thanks for going through all of that. I'll have to go home and look through my second game to see how much I can still implement. That one is pretty much sit and wait for the Allies to invade, so I feel I'd have a better chance to save up the supply and the HI both.

So it looks like you'd be making 5000+ fighter/bomber airframes for 42. How many other airframes do you make? The Japanese reportedly made 8,861 total in 42.

My initial set-up was only 60 Oscars and 91 A6M2 and Mike (!!) actually suggested I bump up with more of each!

So initially I made I think 110 A6M2 and added another 30 Oscars after finishing with the Lily production top-off to make 90. So 200/month until 8/42 when the Tojo arrived with a few added Rufes and A6M3 just before that. So by 6/42 I was making 315 F/FB, and 60 Tojos were added after that, (bumped up again later).

I think I made around ~3600 F/FB for 42. I think I made around ~2700 1E and 2E bombers for 42. So ~6300 for the year.

Add to that the patrol, FP, recon and transports and it's another ~1900.

Total airframes for 42 would then be ~8200.

Compared to the Japanese total above things were fairly conservative at that point.

The place where mine got more extreme is the R n D. I was/am using this game as a way to learn the system, see what eat airframe can do, see what happens in each period of the game according to those choices. I could have R n Ded fewer planes, the ones I did a bit less, and still gotten here. That might have saved some supply, but not enough to make up for what has been destroyed.

So far I've lost around 2901 HI factories and 2692 LI factories. (Might be a bit more now, this is from a recent list I posted).

That should be 174,060 supply a month from HI (assuming fuel) and 80,760 supply a month of LI production. Some of that started burning up in 5/44.

So around 250,000 supply production lost each month up until now when the fuel would have run out anyway. Most of that was destroyed by January 45.

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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by PaxMondo »

Ach, lost a long reply and too tired to do it again.

Short version: I forgot to add in the I build out a lot of older models until the engine pool are gone (Nate, Ida, etc.) So that is more '42 production.

I start NF R&D on Dinah and/or Randy sometime in '42

I take (by plan) the Nate out of service in Q3Y43 ... until then I am actively using it.

I don't build many Tojo's. Its a defensive plane and I am on the offense in 42/43.
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by PaxMondo »

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

HI supply never drops below 1.25M and after Feb 42 is always rising. HI pools start to rise in about March 42 and by July I'm banking about 1800/day.

There's my blueprint. Totally stolen from Mike Solli +4 years ago. I've tweaked it a bit, but not much.

How much supply do you have stockpiled in Japan by the end of 42 under these conditions Pax? I'm curious to compare the numbers. For interests sake I'm at Nov. 25/42 and I have 1.4 million HI banked (increasing roughly 4k/day) and 1.5 million supply (increasing 5-12k/day) in Japan.
I don't go below 1.25M as noted above, and that happens in Jan/Feb. After that increasing by +5K/day. End of '42 I have easily 2.5M supply in the HI, I think I had a game where I was well over 3M supply in the HI. Supply from the HI only goes east (Aleutians, Marshalls, Line Isles). In the west, conquests generate all the supply needed for offensive ops. I might have to send some supply to China, but only maybe. HK nets quite a bit. Those little 1E bombers don't use that much supply, but still get the job done (disrupting troops).
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by Speedysteve »

This is fascinating info and gold dust for me. Thanks guys
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by PaxMondo »

ORIGINAL: Speedy

This is fascinating info and gold dust for me. Thanks guys
As you can see, no concensus on things at all. Very different styles of play. Read up on all the IJ AAR's ... several are into 44/45 now. Some AAR's are having severe supply issues, that is why the discussions here.

I need to point out that historically IJ did have serious supply issues for much of the late war, that several campaigns were never undertaken because of supply concerns (OZ for example), and so supply is tight by design in the late game for IJ.

Having said that, the discussions here are centered around factory expansion/conversion as each factory changed costs 1000 supply and each one built costs 1100 supply.

My premise is that supply, just like HI, is a fixed comodity. IJ will only have so much in the entire game. You can calculate it quite precisely if you wish. It is finite, unlike the allied almost unlimited pool. You can track your use as you go against what you know will be your total supply production. Mike S and I both do this just like we track HI production and consumption. We also have plans for both. our Mantra: Logisitcs RULES!

You can use it early or late by choice. EX: If you decide you want to build 200 Tojo/month, this means you have to invest 400K supply (200 for the Tojo and 200 for the Ha-34 engine). This doesn't sound like much, but when you multiply this times 4 or 5 other models that you do the same thing for in 42/43, you have now spent a couple million supply. 2M supply is a lot. If you do this again in 43/44 and again in 44/45 as new models come available ... Historically, IJ could not do this. That is why the Nate was built into 1945, they simply could not afford to re-tool the factory and a Nate was better than no plane at all (although not by much).

The game mimics this reality quite well. Many players choose to build a lot of AC and extend their ability to control the game into late '43 and even '44. There are at least 2 AAR's where this is happening. They are good reading, quite insightful, and done by players who are both quite talented and good writers.

I choose not to follow this strategy. First off, I play only against the AI, and there is no AutoVic in my games. Second, I know in detail what the allies will get in '45. I have cheated heavily in this area and crunched the numbers. Appalling is all I can say. First, they get aircraft that the IJ cannot match. The IJ get some models that have good performance like the Shinden, but then are crippled by lousy armament choices leaving them woefully undergunned. Thus, and my testing confirms, I have to be prepared to losing 2:1 in the late game in just fighters. Then there are the 4E's, which all IJFB's know will frequently become 'aces' by shooting down so many IJ fighters. So, I need even more fighters against these. Finally, I need fighter groups 24/7 to protect against night bombing. So, let me use my conservative numbers: I plan that I will need to build +2000 fighters/month in the late game to be able to match up against the allied production. Asuming these are all 1E, and some of the better choices are 2E, that means I need to invest +4M supply in factory expansions alone to build them. When I am not expanding factories in the HI, I can save about 2.5M/year. So, during my key production time before I lose the DEI, I will save ~7M best case. I plan to spend +4M for my late war fighters ... I have only 3M for my LCU's to last 2 years ... I can just do it.

Now back up to the concept of expanding ac factories in 42/43. Whatever I build in 42/43, I have to take out of my late war build. The total supply does not exist. Not in the base plan. How can I change this plan? Simple, get more supply by conquest. If I take Calcutta and net 500K supply, I now can use this in '43 to build some additional Tojo and wreck havoc ... or save it and build even more Shinden in '45.

Supply, like fuel and HI is a zero-sum game. The IJ only has so much and the player gets to choose when to spend it. However, the player also needs to recognize that if he spends it in 42/43, he cannot expect to have it in 45/46.
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by obvert »

I've been looking at this for a while and just found something on fort building costs. Done in 2010, but probably still valid info.
ORIGINAL: vaned74

I did some testing on fort building out of curiousity to determine cost/time to build various levels.

I set up 10 Japanese naval const battalions (36 Engineers, 3 engineer vehicles) on two islands - Etorofu & Ishigaki.

Ishigaki started at level 2 fort, Etorofu at lvl 0. Both are non-clear terrain. On both islands thus were 120,000 supplies and 510 engineer equivalents (360 squads, 30 vehicles).

Both islands built fairly consistently in pace, Etorofu took less time to reach level 9. Here are the results for level to level builds w/supply costs.

Level 0-3 - Etorofu reach level 3 and 8% to level four in 3 days at a cost of 1,000 supplies.

Based on both islands (variance of 3% faster build rate at Etorofu).

Build level 3 to level 4 - 510 eng equivalents build at rate 11.5% per day; cost 280 supplies or 24 per 1% progress
Level 4 to 5 - 8%/day; 290 supplies/day or 36 per 1%
Level 5 to 6 - 5.5%/day; 290 supplies/day or 52 per 1%
Level 6 to 7 - 4%/day; 800 supplies/day or 200 per 1%
Level 7 to 8 - 3.1%/day; 800 supplies/day or 267 tons per 1%
Level 8 to 9 - 2.7%.day; 800 supplies/day or 299 tons per 1%

Note, you cannot build above level 6 w/o 25,000 tons of supplies present at the base.

So, totals are:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]Levels 1,2 and 3- cost about 1,000 supplies and take 3 days
Level 4 - 2,400 tons of supplies; 9 days
Level 5 - 3,600 supplies, 13 days
Level 6 - 5,200 supplies, 19 days
Level 7 - 20,000 supplies, 25 days
Level 8 - 26,700 supplies, 33 days
Level 9 - 29,900 supplies, 38 days[/font]


To go from level 0 to level 9 required ~93,000 supplies and ~145 days for the 10 battalions.

Obviously in bang for your buck - level 6 is the best payout and a large engineering force can achieve this in relatively short time.

I also tested 5 battalions building and the rates where just about exactly equal to 1/2 of the build rate with 10 battalions (510 engineer equivalents).

This was seemingly a one post thread, so I am not linking it. Good info though. I was thinking that maybe building too many bases to level 6 might have led to supply shortages, and this seems to support that guess, unfortunately. [;)]

So to map it easier to see this in terms of the cost for each level I've made an accumulating list. My math and his don't add up, so I'm wondering why? I'd have to do a similar test, but at least this puts things in the same ballpark.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]For 510 engineer equivalents:

Level 1 - 200 - 1 day
Level 2 - 500 - 2 days
Level 3 - 1,000 - 3 days

Level 4 - 2,400 - 12 days
Level 5 - 7,000 - 25 days
Level 6 - 12,200 - 44 days

Level 7 - 32,200 - 69 days
Level 8 - 58,900 - 102 days
Level 9 - 88,800 - 140 days[/font]


Now, thinking about the number of level 6 forts created for the Japanese in this game, I've gone through (without the game open in front of me but with a pretty good remembrance of which went to that level) and added up the cost of fort building. It's pretty staggering!

For the (estimated) 220 bases built to Level 6 the cost would be 2,684,000!!! Hmmmmmm.

Only two bases were built to a level 9, for another 177,600. About four more were built to level 7, for 128,000. That's 2,989,600!!!!! [X(]

That doesn't count the bases built to level 4-5 or less. Add another 100 at Level 4, for 240,000. Add another 50 at level 5, for 350,000. Add another 150 at level 3, for 150,000. So that's a total of 3,729,600!!!!!!!!!! [X(][X(]

This seems to account for a much higher portion of supply than changing air factories around or building a lot of R n D. Even 90 x 30,000 is only 2,700,000.

Looking at a mid-42 econ report I was making just about 27,500 supply a day. So that's ~10,037,500 for the year. That gives a total of ~30,772,500 for the war up to 1/1/45.

So I guess about 12.2% of total supply up to 45 was used to build forts.

All of this is a bit speculative as I don't have the actual bases and numbers in front of me, but I bet the numbers are even higher counting all of the bases on map including those conquered and held during the game.

The interesting thing for me is that if I'd built those level 6 forts to level 5 instead (at a cost of 1,540,000) it would have cost 1,144,000 LESS in supply! That would be useful now!

In fact I may settle with level 4 forts (for 528,000) most everywhere except for very important bases and especially isolated islands. The Marianas will still be level 6 at least.
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obvert
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by obvert »

Now I have a question. What is the cost of non-base forts built by units in the field?

Are the costs the same?
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by PaxMondo »

Don't forget the costs to build AF's and Ports.
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by PaxMondo »

ORIGINAL: obvert

Now I have a question. What is the cost of non-base forts built by units in the field?

Are the costs the same?
Never been tested that I know of.
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by Spidery »

According to the manual, the cost to build forts depends upon the potential SPS of the airfield or port at the base. Ishigaki (1,4) is slightly higher potential than Etorofu (1,3) which is consistent with the observed behaviour.

Also, the manual states the cost for level 7 and higher is three times normal. This seems consistent with the figures you show.

Presumably, if you have troops in the open at places you do not expect to stay, you should set them to Reserve or rest/training to avoid spending supply building forts that are never going to be used. I think a Beta changed removed building of forts when given a move order.
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: Spidery

According to the manual, the cost to build forts depends upon the potential SPS of the airfield or port at the base. Ishigaki (1,4) is slightly higher potential than Etorofu (1,3) which is consistent with the observed behaviour.

Also, the manual states the cost for level 7 and higher is three times normal. This seems consistent with the figures you show.

Presumably, if you have troops in the open at places you do not expect to stay, you should set them to Reserve or rest/training to avoid spending supply building forts that are never going to be used. I think a Beta changed removed building of forts when given a move order.

Do you mean to say one of the newer betas keeps forts if the unit doesn't actually move out of the hex? Where previously simply being in move mode would have erased the forts?

I've been a big fan of reserve mode for a while, but now I'm thinking it's imperative in many circumstances for supply conservation and a few other reasons.

I might have to do a test on the costs of fort building in non-base hexes. These things are turning out to be critically important for Japanese players especially. I wonder of the supply drain of in base and non-base fort building were a few of the factors that led to several recent games ending due to lack of supply late, and of course in the most famous example with the PzB game.
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by Spidery »

Do you mean to say one of the newer betas keeps forts if the unit doesn't actually move out of the hex? Where previously simply being in move mode would have erased the forts?

I referred to this in the Beta release notes:

"121. Moving units try to build non-base forts (using supply) which are zero'ed - wasted supply"

Not sure which beta that comes from nor exactly what it means[;)]
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by SqzMyLemon »

It's definitely going to be interesting getting these games to the late game and seeing how the different economic plans pan out.
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by witpqs »

BTW, I'm pretty sure that disruption, fatigue, and morale affect engineer performance. Not sure about leader stats and the other units stats (like experience).
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

BTW, I'm pretty sure that disruption, fatigue, and morale affect engineer performance. Not sure about leader stats and the other units stats (like experience).
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by Speedysteve »

Really interesting stuff here guys. As a 'newly' Japanese convert I'm thinking along the liens you posted above Pax - everything is finite. It's a choice thing. I am thinking maybe I have too ambitious a plan to develop future planes with R&D so I'm going to stagger the conversion, expansion and repair of these facs and keep an eye on things.

Obvert - different topic question for you. As you recently found out that you can R&D to the end of a plane line once you've converted the fac to an earlier model (rather than having to research sequentially through each model) how much of a difference do you feel this has made or will have made on your war with Jocke?
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by FeurerKrieg »

Great post on the fort costs. I will be saving that one for sure, and will now go through and make sure all non-defensible places are not building forts. :)
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: Speedy

Really interesting stuff here guys. As a 'newly' Japanese convert I'm thinking along the liens you posted above Pax - everything is finite. It's a choice thing. I am thinking maybe I have too ambitious a plan to develop future planes with R&D so I'm going to stagger the conversion, expansion and repair of these facs and keep an eye on things.

Obvert - different topic question for you. As you recently found out that you can R&D to the end of a plane line once you've converted the fac to an earlier model (rather than having to research sequentially through each model) how much of a difference do you feel this has made or will have made on your war with Jocke?

The difference would have been getting a few planes on long lines more quickly. The Ki-100, the Oscar IV, the D4Y3-4 Judy the Frank 'r' might even have been a bit earlier. The Frank would have helped a lot, and the later Judys would have given the possibility for full KB strikes at 8 hexes a bit sooner. The others are escorts, mostly.

The Tojo IIc coming a few months earlier and the George and Jack service 2 second version arriving earlier would have definitely improved the air war during 43. I did lose a lot of planes on the ground after actions one day which then grounded service 3 planes for the next few days.

It's already a bit odd that we can push some planes so much earlier so seemingly easily, but maybe as we start to see the whole cost including supply (and in some scenarios HI) then it becomes less questionable from an Allied perspective.
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

Post by obvert »

[font="Times New Roman"]ECONOMY[/font]
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Well, it's been better.

The supply in the HI is dire, and not likely to get better based on the amount of industry now destroyed and that will be destroyed soon.

On the bright side I can happily end resource shipments from Hokkaido and Fusan. Plenty to go around for the rest of the war now. I've already stopped many of the CS convoys, and the rest will be distributed to big ports around the HI to await imminent destruction.

The global fuel/oil/supply is misleading as a large portion of that is sitting in Singapore inaccessible to the forces in the Home Islands.
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