NEAR EAST AFLAME

[lion_of_judah]

have some questions regarding what certain regimes stockpile of oil should be. when a nation has prepared for war they will have a stockpile of supplies, oil and military material. i have started the Islamic states out with 200,000 oil which after 4 turns is down to 79,000. military's are able to maintain offensive operations for at least 30 days without resupply for most nations, but since this is a middle eastern nation (other than Israel) their offensive capability should be halved I'm thinking. so thoughts and opinions on this will be appreciated

[lion_of_judah]

have made a regime change. Have removed Turkmenistan and added Russia in it's place.....

[ironduke1955]

"obama's arab spring has backfired, why Pakistan and Afghanistan are now united"

Not sure if Obama is responsible for the Arab spring, I believe it started in Tunisia and had more to do with rejection of the old political status quo in the middle east in some countries. Duo to high unemployment Corruption nepotism and police state leaning's of the regime's. Sometimes Hi jacked by the Islamists. If you were to blame any US president it would be Bush and his overthrowing of Saddam Hussein touting western democracy. Saddam being the worst of the Arab tyrannical Regime's but also secular there was no place for extreme Islamist's in Saddam's Iraq.

[Jonathan Pollard]

"If you were to blame any US president it would be Bush and his overthrowing of Saddam Hussein touting western democracy."

While it's easy to blame Bush, the driving force behind the Bush administration's actions to reshape the Mideast were the Neocons. I recommend an excellent article by Israeli journalist (and former MK and Irgun fighter) Uri Avnery, which was written at the time of Saddam's fall:

http://www.counterpunch.org/2003/04/09/the-night-after/

[ironduke1955]

Yep I know about the Rumsfeld's and The Cheney's but a President is like anyone else, if you have a mind to you can go against something if you believe its wrong and have the strength of will to stand opposed, Bush did not, and at best he will be remembered as weak willed, at worst a war criminal.

[Twotribes]

ORIGINAL: ironduke1955

Yep I know about the Rumsfeld's and The Cheney's but a President is like anyone else, if you have a mind to you can go against something if you believe its wrong and have the strength of will to stand opposed, Bush did not, and at best he will be remembered as weak willed, at worst a war criminal.

So much for no politics, by the way you are wrong.

[ironduke1955]

First I did not start the Politics so you are wrong "obama's arab spring has backfired, why Pakistan and Afghanistan are now united" this is what got me started on Politics.

And second its not as if the jury is out on the Iraq war, it was a war started under false pretenses that is not speculation but fact. Half a million people have died so far and a lot more may still die. Your right politics should not be introduced on the forum and I will stay clear unless I see a lie go unchallenged.

[Twotribes]

Doubling down I see. What part of NO POLITICS don't you understand?

[ironduke1955]

"Doubling down I see. What part of NO POLITICS don't you understand?"

Read the posts the initial Political comment was from Lion of Judah IT WAS "obama's arab spring has backfired, why Pakistan and Afghanistan are now united" unless you agree with this comment. I suggest you address your no politics comment to him. If I read any other similar comments I will reserve the right to make my own opinions on the matter bloody well known. No politics I agree with and apply to my own posts if others don't obey that rule then all bets are off.

[GrumpyMel]

Hey guys, relax...it's a wargame not an election....and the scenario is clearly hypothetical, though with alot of historical authenticity. The author could have stated "because the Martian Overlords willed it" and it would be accurate for his hypothetical scenario of what happaned....so no need to go around challenging the accuracy of anything because in any hypothetical work the author is always the absolute authority of what happaned in that alternate universe to set the stage for his scenario.

[Veni]

Well stated, GrumpyMel. It seems nearly impossible to NOT go into 'politics' when the scenario revolves around the Middle East/Central Asia. It seems a shame; I trust there are varied viewpoints with the potential for much fruitful, intelligent and reasonable discourse in this community, yet the appropriate focus here would be crafting lion_of_judah's scenario. Of course it's hypothetical (e.g., anyone who has spent quality time in Afghanistan would recognize the implausibility of an AF-PAK alliance), but as GrumpyMel notes, it's lion_of_judah's baby. I guarantee my 'politics' differ sharply from lion_of_judah, but it seems a kick-ass scenario all the same.

@Lion_of_Judah: Out of curiosity, though, how are you modelling:
1. Non-state actors (e.g. Al-Qa'ida)
2. People/people groups (from the screenies above, I see 'Muslim' and 'Israeli' [religion and national]. It might be interesting to break 'Muslim' down (Arab/Kurd, Sunni/Shi'a, etc.) and duke out a Sa'udi coalition vs Iran coalition conflict (neutral Israel?), versus viewing Islam as a unified political entity (my two cents).
3. The current Syrian conflict (if at all?). That might be interesting (per nr.2) as precipitating a wider regional conflict.

[ironduke1955]

If in fact the statement was purely a fantasy and had no political commentary intent. Then I apologize. But perhaps it would be possible to refer to the US President as just that the US President. We suffer everyday a continual barrage of anti Obama comments on all US forums and public sites whatever the topic it will be Obama's fault. I am now on a hair trigger regards such comments.

[Twotribes]

Ya cause heaven forbid someone disagree with his policies and his administration.

[ironduke1955]

And that is the reason Politics should be kept out of the Forum North Carolina. Because with some people there is absolutely no doubt which side of the political divide they stand. And now I have no doubts that you were pleased with the comment made by the Lion of Judah, even if he was unaware what he had said you certainly were not.

[Twotribes]

Pot meet kettle.

[lion_of_judah]

ORIGINAL: ironduke1955

"obama's arab spring has backfired, why Pakistan and Afghanistan are now united"

Not sure if Obama is responsible for the Arab spring, I believe it started in Tunisia and had more to do with rejection of the old political status quo in the middle east in some countries. Duo to high unemployment Corruption nepotism and police state leaning's of the regime's. Sometimes Hi jacked by the Islamists. If you were to blame any US president it would be Bush and his overthrowing of Saddam Hussein touting western democracy. Saddam being the worst of the Arab tyrannical Regime's but also secular there was no place for extreme Islamist's in Saddam's Iraq.

I'm not getting into any political discourse as I respect others opinions and vice-versa. As this is just a game based in the real world, I based the premises of the scenario on the Arab spring and it failure as I see it and what consequences this will or could have. Is this meant to be political, NOPE just a what if, let the chips fall where they may as one would say ( in game terms). Just as all these WW2 hypothetical scenarios we see all the time, this is no different.

The Islamic states idea was what would happen if both Afghanistan and Pakistan would unite (very hypothetical), and form one large Islamic nation. what would the consequences be for the region, as a whole ( including Israel). I promise ( my opinion)that nation would be a large threat to Iran and that starts a whole new group of problems. Like I said this is hypothetical what if's nothing more.

People group for the Islamic states, I could not think what these two united nations would call themselves so the easiest route was to go with " Muslim" as with all the Arab regimes was to go with Arab. I did not want 10 different Arab regimes to deal with so going with Arab was the easiest as was going with Muslim. So any non political way to make this scenario good I will appreciate.

As for the guerrilla groups I would turn the Mercenaries into these groups and go from there. I have added the Russians as they appear too be re-establishing their old alliances with the Arab world. I'm thinking about adding the Syrian free army into the mix, but not sure.

Israel, keeping them as neutral in my view even for a hypothetical situation would be too unreal and so they are active. So any opinion on this scenario will be appreciated. This needs to be kept to hypothetical game play only, nothing more

[GrumpyMel]

It looks to be a very interesting scenario, Lion_of_Judah. One of the things you might want to think about toying around with to bring the neutral powers into play aside from a simple "neutral until attacked" is the use of a political influence mechanism where the players can play event cards to lower the neutrality of different inactive powers in an attempt to bring them into the conflict on their side, then do a random check to see if that threshold was surpased. You could maybe even handle non-state actors or limited support from out of theatre forces (limited US support, UN PeaceKeepers, etc).

The advantage of that mechanism, I think is that it adds a bit more tension and uncertainty to the scenario (appropriate to the theme). A player can't simply assure himself that a given power will remain out of play by avoiding attacking it.... he'll have to wonder if his opponent is trying to influence....and if so, should he attack first when he might have the advantage of a first strike? Something to think about.

[lion_of_judah]

that is a good idea. One problem is that I suck at programming and would need help in this area. If this becomes reality, then I would like to have the neutral nations in question become active on specific events as well as just plain old declaring war against them. But each regime would still be their original regime and controlled by a specific player.

This has major possibilities though and I'm interested in seeing this become a reality....

[lion_of_judah]

I have added another regime " Islamic Caliphate" or another name is the ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham) real world jihadi group fighting in Syria/Iraq. I have attached a article regarding this latest battle in Iraq and only for information purposes only, nothing more.

http://debka.com/article/23571/Al-Qaeda ... nd-Falluja

[lion_of_judah]

Veni

it appears that Al'Qa'ida does have a state of sorts now stretching from portions of Iraq into Northern Syria 160km from the Syrian City of Aleppo so I have added it as another regime " Islamic Caliphate" thoughts appreciated.