Courtenay's solitaire AAR

[markb50k]

Keep in mind that if you want a bit lower tension, you could attempt to declare war. If you pass then great! if you don't you get to remove a chit from entry and tension. At this stage, that tension removal is most important as you can more easily build back entry

[Courtenay]

At the moment the Allies don't mind where the tension is in the Japanese pool. They just can't let it go any higher. The US could declare war this impulse on Germany -- they have a fifty percent chance -- but I hate fifty percent chances. They always seem to work about one time in three. [:)] A tension of 30 is fine for the Japanese; A little bit more entry, and the US will have a 70% of declaring war (6 + 1 for China.) Actually, the Allies need four more in the Japanese pool (i.e add a three chit) or three more in the German pool (add a two chit.)

How lucky do the Americans feel? They have been getting great picks, but there is about an 80% of picking a two, and only a 55% of picking a three.

[Courtenay]

Initiative: Axis 4, Allies 4; Allies win.
Axis demands reroll: Axis 10, Allies 3. Axis wins.
Axis moves first.

M/J Axis #1: Weather 7: F, F, F, F, F, F.

The Italians attempt to repeat their success at Suez at Santandar, naval striking the two transports that were there. The Allies, though roll a 1 to the Italians 5, and the Allies cancel the combat.

The Germans ground strike everything in sight: Bilbao, Santandar, Madrid, and the resource hex south of Santandar and Bilbao. The CW intercept with a 6 point Spitfire; the Germans intercept with three fighters. The CW clears the bomber through, and the Spitfire goes down to a roll of 4. The pilot survived, though. The German bombers were impressively successful: Of six targets they flipped five of them, leaving the South African INF as the only organized Allied unit north of Madrid.

The Japanese put a unit in Chihkiang. This is what a Chinese offensive looks like -- none of that silly combat, just ooze forward. If the Axis had not won inititive, it would have worked. The Japanese have stated to pull units back to the coast, for war with the US. This leaves them alarmingly thin in places. However, they decide to keep the attack towards Kunming going; the units have finally gotten there, and they want to get out of the North Monsoon region before the weather turns bad.

The Germans have a decision to make. There is a fairly strong Allied force in the north of Spain. The Germans have three options:

1) Just try and contain it.
2) Attack Bilbao
3) Attack the resource hex, which can be put out of supply this impulse.

Letting the Allies stay on the continent strikes me as a really bad idea. The phrase "Spanish Ulcer" comes to mind.

The problem with attacking the resource hex is the Ebro river. Attacking a mountain is hard, but possible; attacking a mountain across a river starts getting into the realm of the absurd.

The attack on Bilbao is not a great attack, but it is not bad; it will take the city over half the time. Not much over, but over. Also, German intelligence has made a precise estimate of the number of CW battleships in the Bay of Biscay next impulse: one jillion. The attack on Bilbao will never get any better.

The Germans through in a three point bomber as ground support; it doesn't affect the odds much, but it helps. The Japanese throw in most of their land aircraft as ground support (three planes, six factors.) The Germans commit Rundstedt and the Japanese commit Yamamoto in support.

The Japanese assault is a success, capturing the hex, but at the cost of another Japanese corps.
If Yamamoto had not been committed, the Japanese would not have lost anyone, but would be fully flipped.

Here is the combat:

[Courtenay]

By the way, there is a four point Chinese corps under that oil marker in Kunming. It makes a difference!

Churchill has the following to say about Franco:

He and his brave, efficient Army, guarded our left flank, and kept open our only line of retreat to the sea. Suddenly, without prior consultation, with the least possible notice, without the advice of his ministers and upon his own personal act, he sent a plemipotentiay to the German command, surrendered his Army, and exposed our whole fland and means of retreat.

I asked the House a week ago to suspend its judgment because the facts were not clear, but I do not feel that any reason now exists why we should not form our own opinions upon the pitiful episode. The surrender of the Spanish Army compelled the British at the shortest notice to cover a flank to the sea more that 30 miles in length.

[My apologies to WSC for appropriating his words, but they seemed remarkably appropriate.]

Here is the attack on Bilbao:

[Courtenay]

M/J 41 Allied #2:

CW, Fr Naval, Ch land, US & SU combined.

The CW puts large numbers of battleships in the Bay of Biscay, Cape St Vincent, and the Western Med. Convoy protection is also done, but on a lesser scale. The CW starts to transfer a few ships back to the Pacific. I also start an operation with the CW division to restore Martinique to Allied control.

The TRS in Suez risks running through the Eastern Med (10% interception chance) to pick up the Cartegena MIL. The TRS in Singapore picks up the Kenyan TER. A 5-4 MOT and the 2-3 AA gun are in Cape St. Vincent. The ART that has been sitting in Dover is picked up, and is in the North Sea.

I had to redo the Allied naval move because of a bug when I undid a naval TRS move; the transported unit got duplicated, and when, at the end of the phase, one of the duplicates disappeared, it was the wrong one.

In Naval Combat, the Allies find the small Italian force in the Eastern Med with a 1, and the Italians roll a 7. The Italians lose Diaz and San Georgio was damaged, to no effect against the Allies. The next round, the Italians completely outroll the Allies, 2 to 10, but the Italians needed to roll a 1 to find the Allies. In the Western Med, the Allies also get a 1 to the Italians 7. Looking at the targets, they go after the Italian transport. (I just realize that I forgot to mention that the Italians risked a TRS to transport Graziani to Algeria. He is very useful there, but the Italians are about to pay a price.) The Allies have enough surprise points to cancel the air combat. They decide to leave the convoy points out of it. They get an X and 2Ds; the second D is redundant. The Italian TRS takes an X, and survives, but the D sinks it. Italian transport capacity in the Med was just cut in half. The second round, the Allies roll a 5, the Italians another 7. Third 7 this phase. This costs the Italians the two CPs in the Western Med. The third round, the Allies roll a 10. Aha, the Italians think, now is the chance for our air power to blast the Allies. The Italians roll a 9. A successful phase for the Allies.

The Chinese fall back towards Kunming, a unit flipping for lack of supply. The Communists move their CAV unit forward; it threatens a lot of cities and resources in central China, which the Japanese will have to defend somehow. The Chinese have no real ability to attack, but they can certainly take undefended territory.

[Courtenay]

M/J Axis #3: Weather 4: F, F, F, R, F, F

The Italians move out their fleet into the Western Med. They attempt a search, with the usual results. They move a cruiser down a box in the Eastern Med. If I understand the rules correctly, the Allies should have had a chance to fight a battle, but MWiF did not give them that opportunity. The Italians searched for the CW in the Western Med; no one found anyone.

The Germans do not attack the two CW corps SW of Santandar. Instead, they move to threaten Alexander. The Germans attack and overwhelm Madrid. The base combat was +20; the die roll of 5 was more than sufficient to kill the Spanish 5-3 defender. However, that unit did slow the Germans down before dying.

The Japanese have four corps stuck in the middle of the mountains of southern China that can not move without flipping unless the weather is fair. If these forces were somewhere useful, the Japanese could do something. Kunming is vulnerable, but the Japanese need some good weather to advance those units out. The Japanese took a land this impulse because the MAR had not yet reached its transport. Soon the Japanese are going to have to take a combined to get ready to fight the Americans. I had thought the Japanese were going to have to take a naval, but I just realized that the Japanese can move most of their fleet in one move, and then get the individual ships to their appropriate destinations in the return to base step. Amphibious invasions of Malaya, the NEI, and the Philippines can come just as well from southern China as anywhere else, since the Japanase are going to have to start from the South China Sea no matter what port the come from.

[warspite1]

Courtenay is it possible to have a few more pictures please? My minds eye is rubbish and it would make following this AAR much easier with more regular views of what is happening - even if its summary shots of theatres at the end of turns.

Thanks in advance [:)]

[Courtenay]

Allied #4:
CW combined, Fr naval, Ch Land, US & SU combined

The British get the Art in the North Sea and the Cartegena MIL into Tangiers. The Commenwealth tried for a fight in the Eastern Med, and got it; however, the Italians out rolled them, 1 to 5. Because of the higher sea box, there were no surprise points, so it had to be a naval air combat. The British carrier plane, despite a +2 advantage, did the OlÉ defense, rolling an 11 and clearing the Italian NAV through. CW AA reduced the NAv from two to one, but the Italaian got one A, which they used to send the Furious home. Now the CW fleet in the western Med has no air cover. In the second round of combat, no one found anyone. Furious is a good description of the Admiralty's reaction to the Furious's retreat. In the Western Med, the Allies look and see that their fighters are outclassed by the Axis, who also have more naval air, so they refrain from initiating combat. Those battleships are useful out in the sea, and the CW don't want them to be sent home.

In land movement, the South African INF retreats back to Santander, to help Alexander defend. This leaves the Australian MOT flipped and alone, but it is in supply, so the British hope it will take some Germans with it. I invade Martinique with a division, and do not include the notional, since the only reason the Germans have it is a bug. I just realized that the Germans own St. Pierre and Miquelon. I will not let them get any advantage for this. I think all French territories, as opposed to minor countries, went to the Germans.

In China, the Communist CAV crosses the Tzu, and is threatening Hengyang and the resource between Hengyang and Changsha. The Japanese have no supply in this area, and only one unit to defend to locations. Reinforcements will be necessary.

Here is the position in Spain at the end of the Allied move. The battle for Spain is over; the battle for Gibraltar is about to begin, although the Allies are trying to put it off for as long as possible. The Germans also have to deal with the three Allied units around Santandar; the Germans can't just let an Allied force stay on the mainland.

[brian brian]

nice screenshot, thanks. I love how Mussolini is late to the party.

I probably would have bailed on the game, myself, with US Entry like that. MWiF will have more of those sorts of games than WiF does.

[Courtenay]

By myself, I probably would have bailed, too. However, I asked people if they thought I should continue, and got to votes in favor of continuing, and none against, so I have continued. The German invasion of Spain has gone just about as well as it possibly could. However, US entry is US entry. Who know> I might not be able to make any rolls, and the US might not enter for a very long time.

[Courtenay]

M/J 41 Axis #5: Weather 3: R, F, F, St, R, F, imp advance 1, no modifier.
The Germans are glad they are not invading Russia right now.

Ge, It land, Ja combined.

There has been a flow of Axis units towards western Hungary. It had been the hope of the Axis to conquer Greece, and get Yugoslavia on their side. However, they have decided that that is not going to happen, so it time to conquer Yugoslavia. Yugoslavia will come into the war at some point, on some side, and the Axis wants it to happen on their schedule, not the Allies. Of course, if the Germans had known that they were going to have to invade Yugoslavia, they would have prefered to do it much earlier. However, they did not; they took a gamble, and it did not pay off.

The Japanese begin to get units in position for a DOW on the Allies.

The Japanese rail a militia into Hengyang from Canton. The Japanese now have almost no rear area security. The Japanese are not worried about a Chinese attack, even though their defense is only one; the Chinese would have to attack across the Hsiang, and the Japanese have some air power available. However, there is no doubt that, just by forcing the Japanese to deploy units to defend this area, the Chinese have scored a victory.

The Italians try to outflank Algiers to the south.

The Germans ground strike the forward CW Mech in Spain with their last unflipped Stuka, and the Luftwaffe's run of luck continues, as they flip the unit. The Germans can't get the MECH out of supply this impulse, but they have hopes. for next impulse, and certainly the one after that. The Germans also move up for a full eight corps attack on the Australian MECH. Eight to one would seem like good odds, but that mountain makes it a much iffier proposition. The attack goes in, and the Germans roll a 10. The Canadian MOT is destroyed, but the Germans lose a unit and have a lot of units flipped.

In reorganization, the Germans use their air transport and von Bock to reorganize two corps and their six point Stuka.

Here is a picture of the combat:

[Courtenay]

M/J Allied #6:

CW, Ch, land, Fr Naval, US & SU combined

The French try and fight a naval action in the western Med. Search rolls were 9 and 6, to get the usual result.

The CW finds an undefended Axis factory to strat bomb: Turin. However, the crews are unimpressed at the idea of bombing Italy, rolling a two. I am not even sure they found Italy; those bombs may have landed in Switzerland.

The CW unloads its units at sea, an AA gun going into Gibraltar and a 5-4 MOT into Tangeirs. The ARM in Malaga retreats a hex, not wanting to get cut off. Gort moves inland from Algiers, also trying to avoid being cut off.

The Communists continue their "offensive" in Central China. Here are their positions. They could make a reasonable attack on Ichang, one the Japanese would make in an instant, but the Chinese can not take loses, and Ichang is not important enough for them to risk. Note the Japanese units stuck in the northern monsoon region, unable to move without flipping. That is four corps out of action, for at least two turns.

[jusi]

Thanks for this interesting AAR (maybe I will invade Spain and try to get an Axis-controlled Med in my next solitaire game). It would be nice to see one or two map(s) of Africa, from Morocco to Suez if possible.

[Courtenay]

Thank you for your comment. This game is not a good example of a Spanish invasion, because the conquest of France went too slowly. The Germans would have liked to declare Vichy in M/J 40; then they collapse Vichy in J/A 40, and should be able to invade Spain in either the second or third Axis impulse of J/A 40. If they do this, there is an excellent chance of taking the whole Med. Also, I have bungled the Italians. The highest priority for the Italians should have been to develop a credible amphibious threat. The fastest way to do this would have been to build the Italian MAR unit as quickly as possible. This gives the possibility of an operation against Syria or Palestine, giving a second front against Egypt.

[Courtenay]

Axis #7 I made a mistake; one side took a far too optimistic view of an operation, and the dice were not kind. In retrospect, the operation should never have been attempted. I am very tempted to just cancel it, and continue. However, I could just accept the results, and that one side did something idiotic. What are people's opinions? Should I accept one side having done something stupid, or should I go back and redo things? Your opinions are welcomed!

(No, I did not say which side made the mistake, what the mistake was, or what the effects were.)

[Majorball68]

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

Axis #7 I made a mistake; one side took a far too optimistic view of an operation, and the dice were not kind. In retrospect, the operation should never have been attempted. I am very tempted to just cancel it, and continue. However, I could just accept the results, and that one side did something idiotic. What are people's opinions? Should I accept one side having done something stupid, or should I go back and redo things? Your opinions are welcomed!

(No, I did not say which side made the mistake, what the mistake was, or what the effects were.)

Got to live with the results [:)]

Its too easy in solitaire to change the rolls to suit or have second thoughts after the event. Would you have second thoughts had the die roll gone the right way?

[hazmaxed]

I, for one, enjoy reading your AAR, so if canceling the failed op will make the AAR last longer, please cancel it and continue! (Selfish me.) I'm working on my own solitaire Global War game, as well as a solitaire Decline and Fall game. Reading your AAR has helped me to learn (or re-learn) a few things. In particular, the possible consequences of both sides' actions regarding US entry.

[Courtenay]

M/J Axis #7: Weather 4, F, F, F, R, F, F
The Stuck japanese units are stil stuck.

Ge land, It and Ja combined

The Japanese start to move units into position to attack the western powers. J/A is the worst possible time to make an attack, though, as there is a good chance that there will be storm in the Northern Monsoon, preventing amphibious assaults. Remember, last year saw nothing but storms J/A, although that was extreme.

The Italians attempt a naval combat in the western Med, relying on the superiority of their fighters. The Italians roll a 3, the Allies a 5. Both sides found each other. In air to air combat, the CW looks at a 3 ptn carrier fighter, and a 5 pt twin engine bomber, and puts the carrier plane in front.

In the first round, the CW rolls an 11, the Italians a 3. The Italians get a AX, and decide to kill the CVP rather than the CW NAV. In the second round, the CW demonstrates consistency, rolling another 11, clearing the second Italian NAV through. The Italians roll a 14, DA; the CW elects to abort its NAV. In the third round, the Beaufighter rolls a 6, aborting the Italian fighter. The fighter rolls a 9, for effectively no effect. In AA, the CW rolls a 2 on lowest 1 of four. The Italians get 2 Ds. They bomb the Ark Royal, and damage it. The CW puts the second D on the Spanish CL Navarra; to everyone's surprise, the Navarra evades the bombs, rolling a 10 with a 9 damage rating.

At this point, I went into a trance. With no fighter cover versus a Beaufighter, the Italians should have given up. Instead, they stuck around, and actually found the Allies, with a roll of 5. The Allies, however, rolled a one, so even the the zero box found the Italians. There was Spitfire in the zero box. The Allies ignore the fact that the Italians have naval bombers and the Allies don't; they pick a naval air combat. The Allies rolled high, and killed both a NAV and pilot. The Italians don't do anything back. Insanely, the Italians stick around, and the second roll costs them their other NAV and another pilot. There are no more planes. No no one finds anyone for the third round of naval combat. Eight build points are by no means fatal, but the Axis needs the NAVs right now; they are what are needed to put Gibraltar out of supply, without which it is very hard to take. This stupidity was what had me asking myself what was I thinking. The conclusion I came to was that I wasn't.

The Japanese strat bomb Kunming, rolling a nine, killing a production point and a saved oil.

The Germans ground strike Santander with their newly reorganized Stuka, and flip the South African corps. The Germans attack the two Allied corps in Santandar. It is not a very high odds attack but both CW units are flipped, and the Germans roll a 17; Alexander and the South African corps both die, with no loss or flipping on the German side.

von Leeb reorganizes the Stuka.

[Courtenay]

M/J Allied #8:

CW combined, Fr Naval, Ch land, US & SU combined

The CW puts convoy points in both the Eastern and Western Med. The point is to give redundancy to the Gibraltar supply line. The CW expects to start losing convoy points here, but if it helps them hold Gibraltar, they are willing to pay the price.

Naval combats in the Med have no result; everyone rolled high.

The CW pulls their forces in Spain directly in front of Gibraltar.

The Communists move up in China, putting their ART next to an unsupplied Ichang. They will get another unit there next time they move. If the Communists manage to roll a 2, the Chinese might make the second Allied attack of the game.

Turn end roll 2, turn ends. This was unexpected, and the Allies are very happy it happened. If they had known it was going to happen, they could have gotten their trapped MECH back in supply, but right now short turns benefit the Allies. The siege of Gibraltar should be interesting. (Unless the Germans roll another 17, in which case it will be over with fast.)

Here is the position in China at the start of the J/A 41 turn. Reinforcements have been added; the Kunming MIL and a GAR are under the oil in Kunming, and a GAR is under the oil in Chungking.

[Courtenay]

And here is position in southern Spain and northwest Africa at the start of J/A 41. The defense of Gibraltar is shown in the flyout. There are eleven Axis corps and three HQ in northern Spain, mostly around Santandar. Most will move out as rapidly as possible.