A Lemon rises in the East: SqzMyLemon (J) vs. JocMeister (A)

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Just don't choose Judge Judy!

According to Judge Judy, I'm well on my way to crashing the Japanese economy.

[SqzMyLemon]

Overall another quiet day.

China:

Another deliberate attack against Chinese forces near Chungking was not as effective as yesterday. The failed leadership roll for the Japanese came into play as adjusted AV was not even half the raw in clear terrain. Another attack is ordered for tomorrow. AAR follows:

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Ground combat at 78,44 (near Chungking)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 12751 troops, 111 guns, 71 vehicles, Assault Value = 436

Defending force 15906 troops, 50 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 292

Japanese adjusted assault: 181

Allied adjusted defense: 18

Japanese assault odds: 10 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-), supply(-)
Attacker: leaders(-)

Japanese ground losses:
121 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
752 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 88 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
36th Division

Defending units:
59th Chinese Corps
76th Chinese Corps
Jingcha War Area
3rd Group Army
Red Chinese Army
14th Group Army

Recon indicated no Allied fighters at Kunming, but 32 were spotted at Paoshan. I had forgot to stand down some Helen bombers based at Lashio and they targeted Paoshan's airbase. However, no Allied CAP flew and a Hurricane IIb Trop was destroyed on the ground. Perhaps Jocke forgot to change his orders. Regardless, it appears someone's getting frisky.

I've ordered a rare Japanese sweep in force to test the waters over Paoshan with Tojo's based at Lashio. I don't expect the enemy fighters to still be there, but I want to seem reactive right now. The Allies are expanding Kalemyo (now a level 4 airbase) so I expect to start seeing sweeps shortly.

Production:

Well, I still ran a supply deficit in Japan despite all non-R&D expansion turned off. I guess I'll just have to let this run its course. However, I was able to get all the heavy industry in Manchuria to produce this turn. Only Chentgu failed production. I checked Wenchow and saw that I was stockpiling fuel there so thought I'd better turn it off and viola, fuel reached all the HI. I'll see what happens tomorrow, but I'll be surprised if Wenchow stockpiling fuel was the culprit that entirely upset Manchurian industry.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Well, I still ran a supply deficit in Japan despite all non-R&D expansion turned off. I guess I'll just have to let this run its course. However, I was able to get all the heavy industry in Manchuria to produce this turn. Only Chentgu failed production. I checked Wenchow and saw that I was stockpiling fuel there so thought I'd better turn it off and viola, fuel reached all the HI. I'll see what happens tomorrow, but I'll be surprised if Wenchow stockpiling fuel was the culprit that entirely upset Manchurian industry.

Actually, I won't.

You must be very careful using the stockpile feature, particularly any time there is a scarcity. If you are not sure, I would do a base by base (literally) inspection and be sure you are NOT stockpiling anything anywhere. Then if you must, choose ONE base per landmass to stockpile. That means for ALL of the asian continent, one base can stockpile. I would not suggest stockpiling at more than one. I generally use stockpile only at the base to which I am trying to pull from, usually Fusan. No where else.

Multiple requests to stockpile will cause more issues than anything else with the resource flows. And the issues get much worse anytime there is a shortage. It can cause bouncing of the resource, and if it is fuel/supply, then you will lose even more in spoilage creating a downward spiral.

[Lokasenna]

I don't stockpile Resources/Oil, period. I want it to flow using the "demand" coded within the game. Eventually, convoy demand will cause it all to flow to where you're pulling from. Stockpiling might screw that up.

For Supplies/Fuel, as I think I've stated before, I only stockpile Supply/Fuel at the large depots at the beginning of the game (I think JUST CR Bay) to prevent lots of wastage as the Southern Army HQ moves to Singapore, and will turn it off later. If I want a large store at a base, I simply increase the base's required supply, as stockpiling doesn't actually increase demand - it just prevents resources from flowing out. If not enough is getting to the base in the first place, stockpiling doesn't do you any good.

[SqzMyLemon]

I know the impression I've given is that I'm stockpiling all over the place, but that's not the case. I was only stockpiling at Fusan to keep the resources there. Then heavy industry in Manchuria stopped receiving fuel in the quantities needed for production so I tried stockpiling to see if I could keep what fuel was reaching these bases to stay there. That didn't work so I stopped it. I noticed Wenchow wasn't receiving fuel either and in this case I deliberately sent a tanker to stock up the base and set stockpile to on to see if the fuel stayed, it did and I simply forgot about it.

I was still trying to fix the Manchurian industry problem, so when I was looking around and saw Wenchow was still stockpiling I turned it off and the next turn all my Manchurian industry was fueled. This is a new feature, I'm experimenting with it when I run into problems. Now from comments and my own experience I question why this feature was even added. If it screws up the flow of resources in the code what value does it have? As far as I'm concerned now, I will only use it at Fusan as suggested. Quite frankly, if the resource flow code as it is now won't send fuel to where it's needed and setting stockpiling to 'on' simply screws everything up, it's a rather pointless change.

I thought stockpiling meant keeping what arrived at a particular base would stay at the base, not somehow interupt the normal flow of resources and supply to other bases. If that's the case I see no reason why stockpiling should have been added in a beta. I've at least posted about it and been given feedback from a few players as to why it shouldn't be be used in a particular way and my own experience now backs that advice. How many others are using this feature and have no idea of the negative impact this feature adds yet was meant to 'improve' the game?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

I know the impression I've given is that I'm stockpiling all over the place, but that's not the case. I was only stockpiling at Fusan to keep the resources there. Then heavy industry in Manchuria stopped receiving fuel in the quantities needed for production so I tried stockpiling to see if I could keep what fuel was reaching these bases to stay there. That didn't work so I stopped it.

I hope you don't take this harshly, as I'm just going to state it matter-of-factly. I think you're playing fine. I just want to illuminate. The reason stockpiling doesn't work if the base doesn't have enough Supply/Fuel to begin with is that stockpiling only affects what a base ships out. A base only ships out once it has more than 3* the required amount. So if you're never getting to 3* required to begin with...stockpiling won't do anything.

However, turning stockpiling off elsewhere will free those bases up to ship out.

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

I noticed Wenchow wasn't receiving fuel either and in this case I deliberately sent a tanker to stock up the base and set stockpile to on to see if the fuel stayed, it did and I simply forgot about it.

I was still trying to fix the Manchurian industry problem, so when I was looking around and saw Wenchow was still stockpiling I turned it off and the next turn all my Manchurian industry was fueled. This is a new feature, I'm experimenting with it when I run into problems. Now from comments and my own experience I question why this feature was even added. If it screws up the flow of resources in the code what value does it have? As far as I'm concerned now, I will only use it at Fusan as suggested. Quite frankly, if the resource flow code as it is now won't send fuel to where it's needed and setting stockpiling to 'on' simply screws everything up, it's a rather pointless change.

I thought stockpiling meant keeping what arrived at a particular base would stay at the base, not somehow interupt the normal flow of resources and supply to other bases. If that's the case I see no reason why stockpiling should have been added in a beta. I've at least posted about it and been given feedback from a few players as to why it shouldn't be be used in a particular way and my own experience now backs that advice. How many others are using this feature and have no idea of the negative impact this feature adds yet was meant to 'improve' the game?

I don't even use it at Fusan.

To me, the Stockpiling feature is to prevent supply/fuel waste from transit over land. If a base on a large landmass has more supply than 3-times its required amount, it may try to ship that supply off. It will definitely ship it off to the area's command HQ, such as China Expeditionary Army in China or Southern Army in Indochina/etc or General Defense in Japan. This causes waste as there's a cost to shipping it from hex to hex to hex.

On smaller landmasses that don't have a command HQ on it, such as New Caledonia for example, I believe the "default" location for the pooling of excess resources is the largest base, and I believe Port size is prioritized there before Airfield.

So basically, Stockpile is a tool for fine-tuning your logistics. It can only mess up your production, and indeed it would be silly to set Oil or Resources to stockpile as they aren't lost to wastage from transportation. I don't set Fuel to stockpile unless I know the landmass has a surplus already - I don't want the Fuel to be wasted to transportation cost, but likewise I don't want to muck up my HI production. On the other hand, having the Fuel flow over the Magic Coast Road might burn less Fuel than shipping it via TK, AO, and xAK.

[SqzMyLemon]

Another quiet turn.

China:

I order all bombers in China to hit the defenders in the hex southwest of Chungking in preparation for ground assault. I will bomb for a few more days while additional troops arrive. Supply levels are red so I won't attack until white anyway.

I continue to attack Chinese troops in the Central Plains, but they still hold. I may bring in an additional division to achieve the higher odds needed to wipeout isolated units.

No Allied CAP over Paoshan so the Tojo sweeps are uncontested. The Allied move looks like it was purely an attempt to ambush my bombers at Kunming.

South Pacific:

An Allied AVD is spotted off the coast of Australia in what I believe is an attempt to determine my naval search range. Is New Guinea the next target?

Production:

Engine Ha-44 advances R&D to 3/43. I want to switch this factory over to Ha-43 R&D, but I will wait until the supply situation improves in Japan.

Manchurian industry produces for the second straight day so that is encouraging. However, supply continues to hemorrhage in the Home Islands dropping below 1.5 million. There's not much I can do until the situation resolves itself. Luckily, the rest of the Empire is sustaining itself without supply sent from Japan.

As to the stockpiling issue there's no problem with anything anyone has suggested, so I apologize if it seems my post was confrontational or somehow discounting advice being given. I appreciate the disussion and I am always looking at ways to improve the economy and production.

[PaxMondo]

Stockpile has one more feature that Lokasena did not cover: it in and of itself creates a little demand. For Fusan, this is a key element in getting the draw to work from Singers.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Stockpile has one more feature that Lokasena did not cover: it in and of itself creates a little demand. For Fusan, this is a key element in getting the draw to work from Singers.

I was unaware of that. Got a post to cite? I'm curious about more info.

[SqzMyLemon]

I forgot to mention in the update that a Japanese submarine off the coast of Rockhampton that was previously undetected was hit with an 8/8 DL last turn. Whenever I get hit with that kind of D/L it usually means there's enemy CV's or strong surface forces nearby. The sub has been patrolling this particular hex for some time so it's odd that it hasn't been spotted before. Unless new air ASW has been deployed to Rockhampton, I think this is an early indication that something may be about to happen around New Guinea and area.

I've begun taking appropriate measures by moving in additional air search assets and vectoring more submarines into the area.

[SqzMyLemon]

I have five engine factories researching the Ha-43 engine and three researching the Ha-45. I was planning on converting the Ha-44 engine to either the Ha-43 or Ha-45. Which is the better choice? I don't think adding a third factory to NE Turbojet R&D will matter, it's most unlikely I'll be able to last long enough.

[SqzMyLemon]

I'm gleaning some interesting information from various posts Jocke is making in other AAR's and threads. This is my assessment of how Jocke will pursue this game. He's certainly advocating to wait the early war out, don't commit to anything risky while building a logistic base and prepping for his long term operations. He'll then use misdirection and feints to draw KB away prior to commencing his main knockout operation deep into the Empire. Areas like the DEI, New Guinea or Solomons can advance under the cover of LBA and won't require CV coverage, but CVE's could be used instead. I can't fault the logic, but how do I counter?

The Allies still control Makin, but that isn't going to develop further without additional landings in the Gilbert and Marshall Island chains and is really a side show. I don't think he's going to do much further here until I'm under much more pressure in other theatres and the risk of KB interdiction is nil.

I gather from his posts that he's quite taken with the Canoerebel and Q-Ball school of misdirection, provide some bait and see if KB comes running, if so, hit hard with the main operation elsewhere before KB can react. I predict that type of operation could occur in the DEI, Java or New Guinea theatres and be based out of Australia. This could open up a grand slam type operation against Sumatra, the Marianas or Kuriles. I think Jocke is prepping for 2 or 3 major operations, whichever will become the main thrust will be determined by where KB isn't.

I'm getting a large number of Aleutian notifications through SigInt almost daily. I have no presence there whatsoever as I deem any effort I place there not worth maintaining and easily ignored as his game with obvert shows. The fact that I have nothing there would be seen as an opportunity for a strike at the Kuriles without having to give the game away if clearing the Aleutians of Japanese forces was the alternative. I'm also getting daily notifications from Sydney, Melbourne and Noumea. This tends to support my opinion that New Guinea or some of the Solomons is about to become a target.

The same goes for Sumatra. Other than the Andaman Islands there is no early warning short of an Allied armada showing up off the coast of Sumatra. Once a level 9 airbase is established within range of the SRA's fuel/oil producing facilities it's game over and no further advance is necessary. A campaign to take out the fuel/oil production facilities will be done by night bombing to reduce losses and deny the Japanese day fighters their chance to be a factor in the game. The same will apply once the Japanese Home Islands are within range.

As for Burma/China the sole purpose to is keep the remaining Chinese bases in Allied hands long enough to apply enough pressure in Burma to open the supply route. All the Indian bases are being built up to level 9 and I expect to see hundreds of fighters sweeping my Burmese bases while the heavies pound my airfields and troops in preparation for a major land effort to open a supply path to China.

So this is my opinion on the course of Allied moves in 43. A campaign for New Guinea and an advance along the southern coast into the DEI to reduce Balikpapan and drive towards the Philippines. Forces will consist of CVE's, strong surface forces and LBA. Some kind of attempt to draw KB either west or east with the intention of striking a deep blow against the Empire at Sumatra, the Mariannas or the Kuriles in mid/late 43. I weigh the chances of Sumatra or Kuriles over that of the Marianas. If Sumatra is targeted kiss the fuel/oil goodbye through night bombing. If the Kuriles are targeted kiss Japanese industry goodbye through night bombing. I believe both are being prepped, it all depends which attempt at misdirection works and draws KB away from one or the other.

So I need to come up with a counter. Where do I position KB to best reduce the chances of being caught out of position for either main thrust? Can I afford to rely solely on LBA and surface forces to defend one of the flanks and concentrate KB in position to strike one of the main thrusts? Can I afford to not react to a feint and allow an Allied position to be established that will eventually cause me problems? If the goal of the Allied moves is meant to reduce loss of airframes so maximum force can be applied through night bombing campaigns against only fuel/oil/industry targets, what is the Japanese counter? Where and how hard do I counter-invade? There are others, but these are just my initial thoughts. I really think the low losses suffered at Pearl Harbor and the fact that Jocke determined to just melt away at any sign of Japanese resistance is a clear indication of an attempt to mount a war winning single thrust type operation rather than simply bludgeon his way through and the associated high cost in ships and aircraft. He may not admit it, but I think Jocke plays for VP's more than he lets on and will definitely be looking to AV even as early as 1944 if he can. It's up to me to prevent that.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
Where do I position KB to best reduce the chances of being caught out of position for either main thrust?

If you're concerned about a southern DEI or P/NG route as a primary route of movement, Davao makes for a pretty good and underappreciated port, IMO. You can be within striking distance of most areas within two days.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

If you're concerned about a southern DEI or P/NG route as a primary route of movement, Davao makes for a pretty good and underappreciated port, IMO. You can be within striking distance of most areas within two days.

Sorry Andre, I may not have been clear. What I want to avoid is using KB in the DEI. I think he intends to try and use strong surface forces supported by CVE's and LBA for a move against the DEI and New Guinea in an effort to draw KB away from the flanks. If I react with KB then I expect a massive operation against Sumatra or the Kuriles. I think he's going right for the vitals this time and not going to grind his way throughout the Pacific.

I need to figure out a way I can be in position to blunt a flanking operation using KB, yet remain strong enough in areas like the DEI where I can rely on my own surface forces and LBA to cover. If I'm wrong and I have KB go after the wrong operation, or a feint, I need to be able to hold long enough to recover.

I'm trying to figure out the worst case scenario. Will he target fuel/oil first or Home Island industry? It may be that hunkering down at Manila may be the best option. I'd be roughly a week away from either flank and far enough away from the DEI he wouldn't know where KB was.

I know this may be reaching on my end, but just everything I've read in other threads by Jocke and with the changes to FLAK, Japanese ASW in DaBabes and air coordination in the betas he doesn't have a lot of respect for Japanese capabilities. He's not risking anything he doesn't have to and I think he's gaining a certain victory disease of his own with the overwhelming superiority of the mid/late war Allied juggernaut. He won't waste aircraft because of his past issues with the Allied pools and his comments about Japan's ability to produce thousands of better fighters with PDU On tells me he's going to rely almost exclusively on night bombing once fuel/oil and industry are within range. He'll wait till his CV's have Hellcat's and he has a fleet filled with Fletchers to steamroller me on a narrow access knowing there's not much I will be able to do to stop it short of losing my fleet in return.

I'm learning that as much as certain aspects of the game are universal, a lot still comes down to the style of your opponent. I'm basing 75% of my comments on Jocke's personality and his posts on many aspects of the game, rather than what traditional Allied play often entails. My gut just tells me he wants minimal casualties and will rely on creating such an overwhelming force then simply dare me to stop him.

[SqzMyLemon]

Another quiet turn.

China:

Just the usual bombings in China and a day off for the ground forces. A recon artillery bombardment was conducted against the troops blocking the road to Kunming and the AV is just in China's favour.

I'm attacking the hex southwest of Chungking today in an effort to clear it so I can totally invest the base. Japanese bombers have been softening up the defenders for three days now so I hope the hex is short of supply. I actually think it's going to take at least two weeks to force a retreat and that's only if Jocke doesn't cycle in fresh units from Chungking.

Production:

A 8150 capacity tanker joined the merchant fleet today.

A6M5 Zero advanced R&D to 1/43 so I switched over to the A6M5b model.

KB is kicking back in a rear area converting it's A6M2's to A6M3a's.

[SqzMyLemon]

China:

My attack against the hex southwest of Chungking went ok, but narrowly missed a 2:1. Weather unfortunately was a factor by grounding the planned air attack which might have tipped the odds into achieving a 2:1. I rest, replenish supply and try again before Jocke reinforces. The reason I have so much armour in the hex is because I'm currently in the process of forming the 3rd tank Division. AAR follows:

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Ground combat at 76,46 (near Chungking)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 41909 troops, 395 guns, 463 vehicles, Assault Value = 1540

Defending force 32602 troops, 88 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 811

Japanese adjusted assault: 1113

Allied adjusted defense: 586

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2125 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 205 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 22 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 15 disabled
Guns lost 20 (1 destroyed, 19 disabled)
Vehicles lost 37 (2 destroyed, 35 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
2654 casualties reported
Squads: 61 destroyed, 134 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 55 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled

Assaulting units:
3rd Division
13th Tank Regiment
51st Division
17th Tank Regiment
17th Division
15th Tank Regiment
2nd Tank Regiment
2nd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
2nd Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
33rd Chinese Corps
8th Chinese Corps
60th Chinese Corps
27th Chinese Corps
9th Prov Chinese Corps
1st War Area

Central Pacific:

An Allied TF of nine ships is spotted two hexes east of Baker Island, but of course my search can't provide any further details. My search has been an issue all game and despite improving skills across the board, it's just not giving me adequate information to go on. Worse is not spotting enemy movements at all until too late, especially large invasion TF's. I'm constantly adding search capability, so hopefully as more zones are overlapped the intelligence will improve.

Miscellaneous:

I've been sending small surface combat TF's back to Japan for refits and one was spotted south of Japan today by enemy submarine. No torpedo hits. I hope this encourages Jocke into thinking a lot of the fleet has been withdrawn for upgrades and makes a move. I have enough still on hand to face all but the largest of an Allied Fleet.

I've also turned off all aircraft R&D repairs in Japan for one turn to see if I get a positive supply increase. If so, I'm going to turn on only the factories that are closet to advancing an aircraft to production. I'll then selectively increase the number of factories repairing until I'm still producing a surplus of around 10k. I lost another 8k of supply last turn which means I'm somehow burning through about 31k supply/day in the Home Islands [X(]. Not acceptable! [:-]

[John B.]

Ah, I think it's tough to put American Carriers into the DEI given the plethora of airbases in there. As the allies, I don't mind fighting carrier to carrier, it's the waves of Bettys coming in low with torpedoes that keeps me up at nights. As well as the many opportunities for LCAP to supplement cover over the KB.

[SqzMyLemon]

A quiet turn.

China:

A couple of Chinese HQ's surrender in the pocket. It won't be long now until this force is eliminated.

Production:

I still drop another 6k in supply in the Home Islands. This is crazy. I've now gone through and turned off any units that were receiving replacements. There were some small units that were destroyed at Canton Island reforming. If this is the cause that is worrisome for the future. If I still lose supply then I'm at a loss. I've done nothing differently up to this point yet I've used up about 120k of supply in the last 30 turns. All HI and LI is producing yet the supply situation is in freefall.

[SqzMyLemon]

Argh!

Well my hunch was right, an Allied invasion force has appeared south of Milne Bay. After discovering the Japanese submarine patrolling the Rockhampton coast with a high D/L on the 10th, I ordered additional air search assets to New Guinea and the Solomons. Search arcs indicate I have the area blanketed covering the Australian coast from Horn Island to as far as Maryborough, so I thought I should get ample warning of any large naval movement. Wrong, not a whiff.

I simply couldn't start any kind of counter naval movement of my own on the 11th without more information. If I had moved into the area and been spotted the jig would have been up and Jocke would simply have retired to try another day. My submarines and air search is killing me this game. Experienced pilots skilled in naval search, but I still can't get a sighting until the day before a landing.

No sign of enemy CV's either so there's a good chance they may be farther back and waiting to make a full speed run to cover the landings. Then again, is this a feint? Nine enemy ships were spotted near Baker Island last turn so are the American CV's in the Central Pacific to over a simultaneous landing in the Gilbert Islands again?

Luckily I had been moving in additional air units so I should be able to mount some kind of air attack tomorrow.

I will post a screenshot later showing the situation. Right now search indicates three enemy TF's made up of 8, 9 and 9 ships. I will contest any Allied lodgement in New Guinea or the small islands off the coast. We have a war. More to come...

[SqzMyLemon]

Here's the position of the enemy invasion TF's. In hindsight, I believe the enemy TF spotted near Baker Island last turn was the feint to draw me east. I didn't bite. Then again, my poor air search has handcuffed me again. I'll have to rely on LBA and if enemy CV's show up I expect to get slaughtered.