GJ (Allies) - Mr.Kane (Japan) - The allies declare their defeat

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Just a quick update....

It's 1/1/1945!!!!

The Marcus island op went smooth. The shock attack, preceded by several bombins (both air and naval), scored a great 30-1 and easily conquered the base.
Nor the KB nor other forces intervened into the action.

In the DEI, the allied fleet is approaching NW Borneo, while the japs started to sweep my bases with a brand new plane....
THE KI-94 is online!!!!! Sweeping at 442 mph and 48,000 feet is faster and higher than anything i have....[X(]

In the air the allies are really outmatched....

Struggle on!

How can he have ALL of these late war planes over a year early? [X(]

Don't ask me...he must have done an astonishing work on the RnD program!
The KI83 has entered service in mid 1944, the shinden in early november 44... Now the KI94 in december 1944.... Jets are just about to come i'm sure....
And the supplies!...i mean...in Java, despite the heavy fightings and constant bombings he has never gotten a (-) modifier.... And the forts? Everywhere up to 6 or higher.... Gosh....[&o]

[Spidery]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Just a quick update....

It's 1/1/1945!!!!

...

In the DEI, the allied fleet is approaching NW Borneo, while the japs started to sweep my bases with a brand new plane....
THE KI-94 is online!!!!! Sweeping at 442 mph and 48,000 feet is faster and higher than anything i have....[X(]

In the air the allies are really outmatched....

Struggle on!

How can he have ALL of these late war planes over a year early? [X(]

Don't ask me...he must have done an astonishing work on the RnD program!
The KI83 has entered service in mid 1944, the shinden in early november 44... Now the KI94 in december 1944.... Jets are just about to come i'm sure....
And the supplies!...i mean...in Java, despite the heavy fightings and constant bombings he has never gotten a (-) modifier.... And the forts? Everywhere up to 6 or higher.... Gosh....[&o]

About 5 factories allocated to each of the Shinden and Ki-94-II and about 8 factories allocated to the Ki-83, all starting in December 1941, with full engine bonus, will achieve those sort of results.

I would be surprised to see jets appearing because of the difficulty getting the engine bonus for them alongside that needed for these models.

I have a program for estimating R&D. Using those factory numbers it gives results as below (average date of arrival and earliest/latest from 20 runs).

Code: Select all

 J7W1 Shinden        : 1944-11-12 [1944-09-21, 1945-01-01]
 Ki-83               : 1944-08-29 [1944-07-02, 1944-10-11] 
 Ki-94-II            : 1944-12-23 [1944-10-28, 1945-02-10]
 

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Just a quick update....

It's 1/1/1945!!!!

The Marcus island op went smooth. The shock attack, preceded by several bombins (both air and naval), scored a great 30-1 and easily conquered the base.
Nor the KB nor other forces intervened into the action.

In the DEI, the allied fleet is approaching NW Borneo, while the japs started to sweep my bases with a brand new plane....
THE KI-94 is online!!!!! Sweeping at 442 mph and 48,000 feet is faster and higher than anything i have....[X(]

In the air the allies are really outmatched....

Struggle on!

How can he have ALL of these late war planes over a year early? [X(]

Don't ask me...he must have done an astonishing work on the RnD program!
The KI83 has entered service in mid 1944, the shinden in early november 44... Now the KI94 in december 1944.... Jets are just about to come i'm sure....
And the supplies!...i mean...in Java, despite the heavy fightings and constant bombings he has never gotten a (-) modifier.... And the forts? Everywhere up to 6 or higher.... Gosh....[&o]

Which all makes me think it'll come toppling down soon.

Once you get the SW Borneo coast though, you'll be albe to quickly move to the Indochinese or Chinese coastline, and that will effectively trap all of the forces on Malaya and in Thailand unless he moves them back in the next few months. It's dicey as the Japanese to keep big armies forward at this stage as I found out all too well! [:)]

[ny59giants]

If Japan is allowed to have PDU - ON and Realistic R&D - OFF, then this will become more and more the norm. One thing that has to be reconsidered IMO is the Allies start to have a number of 3x25 FS come in as one large 75 plane FG. The question will need to be how many and when they start to come in.

[GreyJoy]

Jan 2, 1945

Despite the odds, the allies are advancing. Medioen fell on Dec 31 and now the II AUS Corp is pushing north the battered 103rd division and the several aux units...
At the same time the amphib TFs are approaching Borneo coast. The CVs will now move forward (NE) in order to avoid Singapore's CAP and to put themselves between the landings and the possible advancing route of the KB (which may arrive from Manila). The CVEs will remain with the amphib TFs, along with 2 strong SCTFs and several ASW TFs
Singawang will now be invested. Planned landings on Kuching and Groot Nanotea dot island, so to trap the 250,000 men at Singapore. Then Miri and Brunei...

Pretty sure the KB will arrive.... Can't do much more than what I'm doing now...

Tomorrow we'll also try to close the last strong AF the japs have at Java. 300 fighters will sweep, followed by 150 B29s... it's a 6 lvl AF...overcrowded with 90,000 men (out of 30,000 of the Stacking Limit)...the base forces must be very fatigued there so I guess that, once damaged, the 300 fighters based there should remain damaged... Then the opposition at Java should over...
I'm kind of scared tough...we'll face the best of the best on CAP...KI-83s, Shindens and KI-94s....all with 30 and 20mm guns.....[X(][X(][X(][X(]

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Spidery

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: obvert




How can he have ALL of these late war planes over a year early? [X(]

Don't ask me...he must have done an astonishing work on the RnD program!
The KI83 has entered service in mid 1944, the shinden in early november 44... Now the KI94 in december 1944.... Jets are just about to come i'm sure....
And the supplies!...i mean...in Java, despite the heavy fightings and constant bombings he has never gotten a (-) modifier.... And the forts? Everywhere up to 6 or higher.... Gosh....[&o]

About 5 factories allocated to each of the Shinden and Ki-94-II and about 8 factories allocated to the Ki-83, all starting in December 1941, with full engine bonus, will achieve those sort of results.

I would be surprised to see jets appearing because of the difficulty getting the engine bonus for them alongside that needed for these models.

I have a program for estimating R&D. Using those factory numbers it gives results as below (average date of arrival and earliest/latest from 20 runs).

Code: Select all

 J7W1 Shinden        : 1944-11-12 [1944-09-21, 1945-01-01]
 Ki-83               : 1944-08-29 [1944-07-02, 1944-10-11] 
 Ki-94-II            : 1944-12-23 [1944-10-28, 1945-02-10]
 

Never thought it could be so easy to get there... The KI-94-II is really a top fighter.... 48,000 ceiling... 2x20mm+2x30mm frontal cannons... 440 mhp fast...14 mnvr at every alt... better than any version of the P47 or of the P-51...and Japan can produce thousands of them from 1/1/45 to 1/1/46....[X(][X(][X(]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: Spidery

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy




Don't ask me...he must have done an astonishing work on the RnD program!
The KI83 has entered service in mid 1944, the shinden in early november 44... Now the KI94 in december 1944.... Jets are just about to come i'm sure....
And the supplies!...i mean...in Java, despite the heavy fightings and constant bombings he has never gotten a (-) modifier.... And the forts? Everywhere up to 6 or higher.... Gosh....[&o]

About 5 factories allocated to each of the Shinden and Ki-94-II and about 8 factories allocated to the Ki-83, all starting in December 1941, with full engine bonus, will achieve those sort of results.

I would be surprised to see jets appearing because of the difficulty getting the engine bonus for them alongside that needed for these models.

I have a program for estimating R&D. Using those factory numbers it gives results as below (average date of arrival and earliest/latest from 20 runs).

Code: Select all

 J7W1 Shinden        : 1944-11-12 [1944-09-21, 1945-01-01]
 Ki-83               : 1944-08-29 [1944-07-02, 1944-10-11] 
 Ki-94-II            : 1944-12-23 [1944-10-28, 1945-02-10]
 

Never thought it could be so easy to get there... The KI-94-II is really a top fighter.... 48,000 ceiling... 2x20mm+2x30mm frontal cannons... 440 mhp fast...14 mnvr at every alt... better than any version of the P47 or of the P-51...and Japan can produce thousands of them from 1/1/45 to 1/1/46....[X(][X(][X(]

Maybe it is easy, but there is an opportunity cost to this. If a Japan player set up their R&D factories as Spidery lays out here, that's a very large chunk of the R&D program as a whole - including engine R&D. In order to build the 500 engines in the pool to get the engine bonus as soon as possible, you also need to heavily research the engines...which takes away from earlier engine R&D (well, really just the Aichi Ha-60 here) and early game production (can really bite into Ha-35, Ha-32, or Ha-33: all of which you need in significant numbers, particularly the -35).

[Wuffer]

GJ, could you manoeuvre him out?

fuel = HI = supply/forts = fighters = fleet manoeuvring

Everytime the KB set sails could shorten the war (if you avoid a big disaster, of course).
Evasive manoeuvre, threat of landing manoeuvres, transportation, invasion, berthing, maybe even sacrify a few ships... not matter what, just let him react and burning his fuel.

well, that's the idea ))

[PaxMondo]

Nic,

Keep your composure. You know as well as I do that if the IJ has spent the supply to accelerate all those models AND has been building AC like crazy that he is desperately short of supply. As several other have suggested, you just need to apply pressure to where he isn't. His Achilles heel is Aviation Support. He can have all the AC in the world, but he has to concentrate his AS in only a couple of places. Find out where he doesn't have the support, and attack there. If he has loaded Singers ... great news! He must have ~500 AS there ... think how desperate he is going to be when he doesn't have access to them any more. [;)]

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Never thought it could be so easy to get there... The KI-94-II is really a top fighter.... 48,000 ceiling... 2x20mm+2x30mm frontal cannons... 440 mhp fast...14 mnvr at every alt... better than any version of the P47 or of the P-51...and Japan can produce thousands of them from 1/1/45 to 1/1/46....[X(][X(][X(]

I have never thought it good at all. It is grossly underarmed. Those weapons are front, not center like on the Ki-83. The 30mm has lousy accuracy, so it doesn't even count. So it has 2x20mm ... that is less than 4x50 cal. Not impressive at all. All of your fighters have at least 50% more armament than it does and 50% is a lot.

Fast and high is all fine and dandy, but you have to be able to hurt something. Your TBolts should be able to survive the dive and make him pay IF you can amass enough and layer your CAP.

You know all this ... you're too good a player to be getting scared .... keep cool. I think you are set to be in Tokyo before 9/45.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Nic,

Keep your composure. You know as well as I do that if the IJ has spent the supply to accelerate all those models AND has been building AC like crazy that he is desperately short of supply. As several other have suggested, you just need to apply pressure to where he isn't. His Achilles heel is Aviation Support. He can have all the AC in the world, but he has to concentrate his AS in only a couple of places. Find out where he doesn't have the support, and attack there. If he has loaded Singers ... great news! He must have ~500 AS there ... think how desperate he is going to be when he doesn't have access to them any more. [;)]

Good point. Recall that the 250 air support cap has been removed!

[PaxMondo]

Yeah, lvl 9 AF gets 2x Air support, but still to field 1000 fighters, he needs ~500 AS to do that. And these are all SR3 or higher aircraft he is fielding against your SR1. You know what you have to do to keep those flying ... attack those tactics.

The major failing when playing the allies is that most players want to play them historically and they lash out and cry 'foul' when they can't. [;)] The historical strategies and tactics only work when the game plays out historically. IE, the IJN suffers a catastrophic loss of CV early in the game AND the player decides to conserve HI/supply for the end game. When that doesn't happen (and have you ever seen that happen in a game?), to think that historical tactics and strategies will work is only playing right into the IJ strategy. Like any other well balanced game, and this is pretty well balanced (but NOT historical) in Scen 2, PDU ON, R&D OFF, you must react to the other players strategy. Otherwise you will lose ... that's kinda how games work, right?

Think Nemo .... how would Nemo be attacking this problem right now? His solutions are the only ones that will work here, but you know he would play this out quite differently and with no regard to historical allied tactics.

I'm not suggesting Nic's opponent hasn't played well, quite the opposite; he has played quite well. Kinda like the old Nic. [;)] Having said that, tactics and strategies that will work should become apparent. Nic is doing quite a few things right. I would just step back, look at what is working, what isn't, what I have that I am not using (which is a lot) and really just end this game. Read obvert's AAR ... your opponent has to be close to or in the same dire situation...

[GreyJoy]

Yes Pax, i'm trying to do exactly that! And i'm not discouraged. Mr.Kane has played better than me in all the aspects of the game, so it was well deserved!
He's much less aggressive than me with the IJN forces...he knows his job and knows what his troops can do...and fight just when he has overwhelming odds...and this strategy has worked great for him so far.

Ok, Jan 4, 1944....
The allies landed a division (supported by artillery, tanks and engineers) and Singawalang (NW Borneo)... no surface resistance...just some 50/60 Graces at night that were easily repulsed by flak and NFs...
The first attack went good, obtaining a 1-1 and reducing forts... Tomorrow that key base should be ours.

The allied DS moved NE towards Groot Nanotea... but the IJN ships didn't come...

At Java we've launched a 3-days air operation tryin to close the only AF left in Java... the resistance was stiff!
More than 400 IJ fighters (Shindens, KI-94s, Tojos, Tonies and Oscars) were found there... the first day our sweeps suffered heavily...60 Corsairs lost, 15 P-47s and several P-38 and P-51s...for a total of 125 planes destroyed... but we managed to shoot down 50 enemy planes and, above all, to keep the B29s safe... The monsters arrived but failed to close the AF....
The following day, again heavy losses on both sides, but our Hellcats did pretty well and managed to obtain a great 1-1...clearing the way for the 4s...this time the B29s were supported by Liberators from Sosarbaja... and more damage was inflicted to the AF...still many many fighters were still operative...
Tomorrow we'll keep on hitting, resting some squadrons and putting into the forge more rested ones...
While the air war rages... on the ground our divisions keep on pushing North...

the general idea now is to trap 8 japanese divisions in Java, 2 more at Palembang and some 500,000 men in Malaya... let's see if it works...

mr.Kane has told me he still produces 28k supplies per day...[X(] [X(][X(][X(][X(][X(][X(]



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Bandoeng , at 50,100

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 13 NM, estimated altitude 45,300 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J7W1 Shinden x 33
Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 18
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 99
Ki-94-II x 7
Ki-100-II Tony x 22

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 2 destroyed
Ki-100-II Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 3 destroyed

CAP engaged:
S-901 Hikotai with J7W1 Shinden (0 airborne, 7 on standby, 23 scrambling)
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 39370 , scrambling fighters between 30000 and 39370.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 42 minutes
19th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 31 on standby, 0 scrambling)
15 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 22000 , scrambling fighters between 22000 and 36740.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 29 minutes
50th Sentai with Ki-100-II Tony (0 airborne, 15 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 36090 , scrambling fighters between 36000 and 36090.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 27 minutes
56th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 17 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 16090 , scrambling fighters between 16000 and 36740.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 17 minutes
59th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 19 on standby, 0 scrambling)
9 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 18000 , scrambling fighters between 18000 and 36740.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 24 minutes
104th Sentai with Ki-94-II (0 airborne, 5 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 44000 , scrambling fighters between 38000 and 43000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 28 minutes
265th Sentai with Ki-43-IIb Oscar (0 airborne, 6 on standby, 9 scrambling)
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 36750.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 19 minutes


Ground combat at Singkawang (56,88)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 15637 troops, 236 guns, 291 vehicles, Assault Value = 493

Defending force 15686 troops, 106 guns, 26 vehicles, Assault Value = 198

Allied adjusted assault: 198

Japanese adjusted defense: 79

Allied assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), preparation(-)
fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1742 casualties reported
Squads: 13 destroyed, 121 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 53 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 12 disabled
Guns lost 49 (30 destroyed, 19 disabled)
Vehicles lost 11 (3 destroyed, 8 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
168 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 21 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled

Assaulting units:
40th Infantry Division
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
XV Corps Engineer Battalion
30th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
208th Field Regiment

Defending units:
12th Ind.Infantry Brigade
156th JAAF AF Bn
78th Field AA Battalion
14th Base Force
19th RF Gun Battalion
157th JAAF AF Bn


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Soerakarta (53,103)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 15971 troops, 324 guns, 282 vehicles, Assault Value = 736

Defending force 12865 troops, 125 guns, 17 vehicles, Assault Value = 239

Allied adjusted assault: 323

Japanese adjusted defense: 283

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 1)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 0

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
327 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 37 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
173 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 19 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 12 (1 destroyed, 11 disabled)

Assaulting units:
6th Infantry Division
33rd Infantry Division
4th Armoured Brigade
50th Indian Para Bde /1
2/11th Field Regiment
7th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
II Australian
181st Field Artillery Battalion
1st USMC Field Artillery Battalion
1st RAA Jungle Regiment

Defending units:
103rd Division
37th Ind.Mixed Brigade

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Yes Pax, i'm trying to do exactly that! And i'm not discouraged. Mr.Kane has played better than me in all the aspects of the game, so it was well deserved!
He's much less aggressive than me with the IJN forces...he knows his job and knows what his troops can do...and fight just when he has overwhelming odds...and this strategy has worked great for him so far.

Nic,

you're playing well too, look where you are. You were sounding a bit down ... don't be, you're in pretty good shape. You don't quite have the initiative yet though. When you sort that out, I really beleive the IJ house will crumble. So far, he's been able to anticipate you well and get his forces aligned. Give him the ol' triple deke can catch him out of position .... [;)]

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Never thought it could be so easy to get there... The KI-94-II is really a top fighter.... 48,000 ceiling... 2x20mm+2x30mm frontal cannons... 440 mhp fast...14 mnvr at every alt... better than any version of the P47 or of the P-51...and Japan can produce thousands of them from 1/1/45 to 1/1/46....[X(][X(][X(]

I have never thought it good at all. It is grossly underarmed. Those weapons are front, not center like on the Ki-83. The 30mm has lousy accuracy, so it doesn't even count. So it has 2x20mm ... that is less than 4x50 cal. Not impressive at all. All of your fighters have at least 50% more armament than it does and 50% is a lot.

Fast and high is all fine and dandy, but you have to be able to hurt something. Your TBolts should be able to survive the dive and make him pay IF you can amass enough and layer your CAP.

You know all this ... you're too good a player to be getting scared .... keep cool. I think you are set to be in Tokyo before 9/45.

Pax, have you seen the Ki-94 already or is this suggestion coming from just looking at the stats? The armament works perfectly in the game, both against fighters and bombers. It's not like that 40mm cannon of the Tojo that got an accuracy of 2 which really makes it useless.
I have played around with late war models to see what they can do and I can assure you, the only downside of the late war IJ aircraft is their crappy service value which all high end IJ aircraft got. Coupled with the abilitiy to pump out roughly 200/month of each high end
model you need the IJ outperforms Allied fighters for sure if you completely leave out their service value.

But then, most people won't ever see these aircraft as it needs insane R&D and then you still have to get to around 45 to see them AND you still have to have an industry then to build them. All together not the norm.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


the general idea now is to trap 8 japanese divisions in Java, 2 more at Palembang and some 500,000 men in Malaya... let's see if it works...

mr.Kane has told me he still produces 28k supplies per day...[X(] [X(][X(][X(][X(][X(][X(]

Until there is no more fuel, and then it will be 13-14k.

The trap will work.

[JocMeister]

Won´t he just be able to fly everything out?

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Yes Pax, i'm trying to do exactly that! And i'm not discouraged. Mr.Kane has played better than me in all the aspects of the game, so it was well deserved!
He's much less aggressive than me with the IJN forces...he knows his job and knows what his troops can do...and fight just when he has overwhelming odds...and this strategy has worked great for him so far.

Nic,

you're playing well too, look where you are. You were sounding a bit down ... don't be, you're in pretty good shape. You don't quite have the initiative yet though. When you sort that out, I really beleive the IJ house will crumble. So far, he's been able to anticipate you well and get his forces aligned. Give him the ol' triple deke can catch him out of position .... [;)]

My real point is that i've never been able to really find the "momentum". I think i've made some very good strategic choices but Always understimated my opponents and lost the "momentum"..
When i landed unopposed at Timor and after few days at Sabang i caught him completely offguard...i should have advanced way faster..Just like Nemo... but then i failed
to advance fast...i didn't have the "balls" to really risk and so i have moved very conservately...and that gave him time to re-organize and to estabilish many new lines of defence.
I've lost the battle for Singapore, which could have really changed the war...and losing it i lost the chance to make all his defensive lines crumble

BTW, now Japan should really be out of oil sources... Even Miri will be in danger now, just like Balikapan...

We'll keep on advancing, hoping that all those units will sooner or later start to eat so many supplies that he won'ìt be able to feed them all

[GreyJoy]

Here you can see the situation... Singapore may be completely cut off the war now...
Palembang is already isolated since august 1944...

[GreyJoy]

The conquest of Sosarbaja was very important. Now that is becoming my major base in the area. A huge port with a decent shipyard (33) will greatly help me to move fast my assets for the next steps