Wild Sheep Chase - obvert (J) vs JocMeister (A)

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: obvert

So at night we should be thinking in terms of simple odds to hit per bomb dropped, with all other conditions the same. If 4x the number of planes went over target using a bomb load 40% as large as the B-29B load of 20k, I would think the odds would show that the number of hits would be about the same. I'm no statistician, and maybe that's the problem, but it seems to me that those sticks might even be tighter together than the 40 bombs of the B-29B, thus when a plane drops on target, a higher percentage of those bombs would hit than from the larger, more spread out load, dropped from a faster plane as well.

I'm no statistician either, and my probability class is 35 years ago, but I think you're a bit off. It comes down to independent trials.

Keep the bombsight accuracy the same as well as pilot skill. Let those variables fall out. Take a total bomb load of 20,000. In one case it's in four B-17s; in the other it's in one B-29, dropping them in one stick. Both have a chance-to-hit of 33%. The B-29 will have more hits. It has to overcome the 33% in one trial. The B-17 total results will be the sum of four independent trials at 33% each time.

That was one of the two big design drivers of the B-29 program from what I've read. (Less than some of the B-29 experts in the forum to be sure.) The other driver was range. But if you're going to risk one crew and consume four engines and one airframe worth of maintenance overhead, you're going to get better results from a bigger bomb load dropped as one stick. It would have been much, much easier to design a B-29 with the B-17s bomb load but the B-29's range. Cheaper, faster. But they added the load spec because of ops research on early-war results from more bombers, in independent trials, dropping the same total load. (And at much more crew risk in total.) I THINK the bomb sight was sold as better as well, but I don't know, and I doubt that's in the game. (But might be.)

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: obvert

So at night we should be thinking in terms of simple odds to hit per bomb dropped, with all other conditions the same. If 4x the number of planes went over target using a bomb load 40% as large as the B-29B load of 20k, I would think the odds would show that the number of hits would be about the same. I'm no statistician, and maybe that's the problem, but it seems to me that those sticks might even be tighter together than the 40 bombs of the B-29B, thus when a plane drops on target, a higher percentage of those bombs would hit than from the larger, more spread out load, dropped from a faster plane as well.

I'm no statistician either, and my probability class is 35 years ago, but I think you're a bit off. It comes down to independent trials.

Keep the bombsight accuracy the same as well as pilot skill. Let those variables fall out. Take a total bomb load of 20,000. In one case it's in four B-17s; in the other it's in one B-29, dropping them in one stick. Both have a chance-to-hit of 33%. The B-29 will have more hits. It has to overcome the 33% in one trial. The B-17 total results will be the sum of four independent trials at 33% each time.

All sounds good. I still don't understand. Pretty dense here. I thought the chance to hit was determined for each bomb even after the plane was over target. How else would a single hit be registered?

The same as how a DB can be on target once out of two or three bombs in it's run on a ship.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: obvert

So at night we should be thinking in terms of simple odds to hit per bomb dropped, with all other conditions the same. If 4x the number of planes went over target using a bomb load 40% as large as the B-29B load of 20k, I would think the odds would show that the number of hits would be about the same. I'm no statistician, and maybe that's the problem, but it seems to me that those sticks might even be tighter together than the 40 bombs of the B-29B, thus when a plane drops on target, a higher percentage of those bombs would hit than from the larger, more spread out load, dropped from a faster plane as well.

I'm no statistician either, and my probability class is 35 years ago, but I think you're a bit off. It comes down to independent trials.

Keep the bombsight accuracy the same as well as pilot skill. Let those variables fall out. Take a total bomb load of 20,000. In one case it's in four B-17s; in the other it's in one B-29, dropping them in one stick. Both have a chance-to-hit of 33%. The B-29 will have more hits. It has to overcome the 33% in one trial. The B-17 total results will be the sum of four independent trials at 33% each time.

All sounds good. I still don't understand. Pretty dense here. I thought the chance to hit was determined for each bomb even after the plane was over target. How else would a single hit be registered?

The same as how a DB can be on target once out of two or three bombs in it's run on a ship.

The question then comes down to per-bomb or per-plane. I don't know. But if it's per-bomb and accuracy is not considered across the war it's a pretty crude model. That means a 500-lber dropped from a Bolo has exactly the same effect as one dropped from a B-29. Or a P-40E. And I don't see that and from your comments neither do you. It would be possible to do a second pass through the to-hit loop, first with a to-hit for the plane/stick and then a per-bomb, with the per-bomb only reached if the code passed the first check. Same idea for DBs. But if accuracy is the same for all 4Es, and I'm not saying it is, then getting past the first gate is still a function of number of planes dropping to equal the same load in the two cases.

[Bullwinkle58]

FWIW and noting I am no Editor maven, I took a peek. GP bombs from 100 lbs to 2000 lbs have an accuracy variable, and while somewhat linear by size they are not purely so. I have no idea how this number is cranked into the forumulae.

Bombers don't seem to have any accuracy ratings in the Editor I can see. That doesn't mean there aren't things done in the EXE though. Or, the game could consider all bomb sights equal and put the whole variability load on the pilot bombing-type skill number.

[PaxMondo]

I don't know about ac models, but it pretty obvious that the 'heavy bomber' designation makes some differences. From my observations:

They tend to accept higher losses and bore in on attacks much more than a 'medium bomber'.
They tend to have higher hit rates.


The latter makes sense to me (better bombsights). The former, I'm on the fence about.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

I don't know about ac models, but it pretty obvious that the 'heavy bomber' designation makes some differences. From my observations:

They tend to accept higher losses and bore in on attacks much more than a 'medium bomber'.
They tend to have higher hit rates.


The latter makes sense to me (better bombsights). The former, I'm on the fence about.

I agree they tend to "go" when 2Es won't. Maybe the durability rating? Or the gun defenses?

[PaxMondo]

Maybe, but even more. They will complete the mission even when they lose +10% of their force. Medium Bombers rarely do that, they generally "abort" before that (they never make it to target)

[LoBaron]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

I don't know about ac models, but it pretty obvious that the 'heavy bomber' designation makes some differences. From my observations:

They tend to accept higher losses and bore in on attacks much more than a 'medium bomber'.
They tend to have higher hit rates.


The latter makes sense to me (better bombsights). The former, I'm on the fence about.

I agree they tend to "go" when 2Es won't. Maybe the durability rating? Or the gun defenses?

It is much simpler. Medium bombers do not fly if potential CAP outnumbers potential escorts by more than 50(IIRC)%.

For heavies that rule does not apply.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

I don't know about ac models, but it pretty obvious that the 'heavy bomber' designation makes some differences. From my observations:

They tend to accept higher losses and bore in on attacks much more than a 'medium bomber'.
They tend to have higher hit rates.


The latter makes sense to me (better bombsights). The former, I'm on the fence about.

I agree they tend to "go" when 2Es won't. Maybe the durability rating? Or the gun defenses?

It is much simpler. Medium bombers do not fly if potential CAP outnumbers potential escorts by more than 50(IIRC)%.

For heavies that rule does not apply.

Ha! My 2E are happy to fly into huge CAP and get decimated. Happens regularly.[:D]

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]23 - 24 June 1945[/font]
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]SUBS: [/font] There still seem to be a lot of Allied subs around Moppo. We have 5 fully repaired. I'm trying to thikn of a good last ride for them, but no opportunities have surfaced yet. [:)]

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]KOREA: [/font] Holding fine at Gunzan and Masan. Sending Masan a bit of supply now. The arty units are filling up in the +3 hex between, then will move back into the combat zones. Bombing continues at Gunzan, and goes for the fields. I was surprised to find them fully open after the 24th turn. [X(] I guess 950 engineers are a lot, huh? The forts actually went up as well, to 2.25.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]STRAT BOMBING:[/font] The Allies bomb Mukden at night and during the day. I literally this turn took out the NF to upgrade to Peggy NF, and there is no day CAP there. Not interested in fighting an air war over Manchuria/Korea where I can't fix or replenish airframes. Just holding the Allies until Soviet activation. If I can do that I'll be happy. Then a massed retreat to the HI with whatever I can save.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]HOME ISLANDS: [/font] Every air groups that has been low a few planes or pilots is being sent through Tokyo to upgrade, replenish and fill out. I've got 2200 AS here and used 2k+ supply just last turn filling out airframes in groups. This is also the cost of losing 45k airframes over the course of the game. It costs, and anyone in 43-44 as Japan should try to realize the good times won't last forever fighting every battle all over the map. Pick spots. I wish I would have more often.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]RECON: [/font] The Ki-95 made it's debut over Moppo. I foolishly spent a 30 sized R n D factory on this plane, and it's just getting here now, but it's good at least. i flew it in at 40k, and with it's speed and it's camera, it did well to spot the base and only one came back damaged out of 3 sent in. No losses.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]CHINA: [/font] The little trapping maneuver accomplished goal number 1 near Anking. We shut the movement of the Allied tanks from getting closer to Shanghai or breaking into the plains in the center. Goal number 2, to actually trap them, has been foiled by a following unit that opened the hex side. That's fine. It would have been hard to reduce them with little supply anyway, and now if reinforcements come this would be a nice hex to defend with it's +3.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 23, 45 - MORNING
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on Fusan , at 103,55

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 21 NM, estimated altitude 34,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-102a Randy x 3

Allied aircraft
Spitfire F.XIV x 27

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-102a Randy: 2 destroyed

No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
27 x Spitfire F.XIV sweeping at 32000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Gunzan , at 102,52

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 34 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 9
Liberator GR.VI x 14
B-24J Liberator x 14
A-26B Invader x 27
B-24D1 Liberator x 6
B-24J Liberator x 81
B-25J11 Mitchell x 3
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 15
PB4Y-2 Privateer x 12

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 damaged
A-26B Invader: 1 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 2 damaged
B-25J11 Mitchell: 2 damaged
PB4Y-2 Privateer: 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
999 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 49 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 66 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Guns lost 14 (2 destroyed, 12 disabled)

Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 4
Runway hits 16

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x PB4Y-2 Privateer bombing from 9000 feet
Ground Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 23, 45 - GROUND
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Masan (102,54)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 67636 troops, 1300 guns, 1128 vehicles, Assault Value = 2642

Defending force 93455 troops, 1306 guns, 208 vehicles, Assault Value = 3185

Japanese ground losses:
90 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Gunzan (102,52)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 98303 troops, 1967 guns, 1809 vehicles, Assault Value = 4816

Defending force 242197 troops, 2996 guns, 1321 vehicles, Assault Value = 7874

Japanese ground losses:
529 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 28 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 4 (2 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
28 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 68,47 (near Kunming)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 35460 troops, 810 guns, 524 vehicles, Assault Value = 718

Defending force 13576 troops, 84 guns, 19 vehicles, Assault Value = 231

Allied adjusted assault: 390

Japanese adjusted defense: 193

Allied assault odds: 2 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), morale(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
5060 casualties reported
Squads: 131 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 115 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 10 (10 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 3 (3 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 5

Allied ground losses:
386 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 20 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 10 disabled
Guns lost 13 (1 destroyed, 12 disabled)

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 24, 45 - NIGHT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Time Surface Combat, near Moppo at 100,54, Range 30,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
MTB G-452
MTB G-453
MTB G-454
MTB G-455
MTB G-461

Allied Ships
DD Fletcher
DD Ammen
DD Anthony
DD Bell
DD Bennion
DD Bullard
DD Bush
DD Cogswell
DD Converse
DD Daly
DD Heywood Edwards
DD Erben

Improved night sighting under 100% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 100% moonlight: 11,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Mukden , at 104,42

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 66 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 45
B-29B Superfort x 24

No Allied losses

Light Industry hits 4

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x B-29B Superfort bombing from 8000 feet *
City Attack: 18 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 24, 45 - MORNING
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on Kumamoto , at 102,59

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 34 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 4
Ki-84a Frank x 10

Allied aircraft
PB4Y-2 Privateer x 58

No Japanese losses

No Allied losses

Light Industry hits 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Kumamoto , at 102,59

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 17 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 3
Ki-84a Frank x 7

Allied aircraft
PB4Y-2 Privateer x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
PB4Y-2 Privateer: 2 destroyed, 1 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x PB4Y-2 Privateer bombing from 9000 feet
City Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 24, 45 - AFTERNOON
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Afternoon Air attack on Fusan , at 103,55

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 11 NM, estimated altitude 35,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 7
Ki-84r Frank x 13

Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 16

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 2 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x P-47D25 Thunderbolt sweeping at 32000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Gunzan , at 102,52

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 77 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 33 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 8
A-26B Invader x 12
B-25J11 Mitchell x 7
P-38J Lightning x 18
P-38L Lightning x 38
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 9
PB4Y-2 Privateer x 9

Allied aircraft losses
B-25J11 Mitchell: 1 damaged
PB4Y-2 Privateer: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
326 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 15 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 34 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled

Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 4
Runway hits 32

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x PB4Y-2 Privateer bombing from 9000 feet
Ground Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Gunzan , at 102,52

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 74 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 32 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 22
Liberator GR.VI x 11
B-24J Liberator x 9
A-26B Invader x 12
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 9
PB4Y-2 Privateer x 8

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 1 damaged
A-26B Invader: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
214 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 19 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Airbase hits 10
Airbase supply hits 11
Runway hits 51

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Mukden , at 104,42

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 67

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 damaged

Heavy Industry hits 58

Aircraft Attacking:
15 x B-24J Liberator bombing from 9000 feet
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 24, 45 - GROUND
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Masan (102,54)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 67631 troops, 1300 guns, 1128 vehicles, Assault Value = 2640

Defending force 113302 troops, 1513 guns, 300 vehicles, Assault Value = 3858

Japanese ground losses:
68 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
3 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Gunzan (102,52)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 78144 troops, 1543 guns, 1435 vehicles, Assault Value = 4867

Defending force 222716 troops, 2714 guns, 1021 vehicles, Assault Value = 7699

Japanese ground losses:
637 casualties reported
Squads: 13 destroyed, 44 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 13 (4 destroyed, 9 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
214 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 15 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Vehicles lost 2 (2 destroyed, 0 disabled)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Wuchang (84,51)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 12306 troops, 176 guns, 130 vehicles, Assault Value = 509

Defending force 6731 troops, 70 guns, 11 vehicles, Assault Value = 216

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 4

Allied adjusted assault: 434

Japanese adjusted defense: 173

Allied assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 4)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 4

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
142 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 6 (2 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
153 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 17 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Assaulting units:
6th Australian Division

Defending units:
1st Ind.Mixed Brigade
90th JAAF AF Bn

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/font]

Reinforcements: Still getting new training units! I am disbanding as many IJA LB truing groups as possible. Letting them get the pilots to 60 low naval and then done. I'll keep the fighter units, as even training they can fly CAP, but I'll change most to Oscars, Tonys, or Tojos.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]195th Shinbu-tai arrives at Matsuyama
197th Shinbu-tai arrives at Matsuyama[/font]

Losses: none.

Ships Sunk:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]TK Coulie is reported to have been sunk near Tinian on Nov 22, 1944
Previous report of sinking of CA Dorsetshire incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service
Previous report of sinking of SS Thrasher incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service
DD Grenville is reported to have been sunk near Amami Oshima on May 16, 1945
Previous report of sinking of SS Queenfish incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service[/font]
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[font="Trebuchet MS"]So Moppo is fully functional as both a CAP and strike base now. That is worrying. I sensed a lot of TFs guarding now from night search reports, but daytime recon and search gets so disrupted by CAP I can't see the actual numbers or composition of the defenses. I sent in PTs this turn to check it out and found a typical 10 ship Fletcher TF. Could be more though, and the Allied CVs moved back North into dangerous zones. I shifted the BBs back to 1 hex from Hiroshima's 800 fighters, so hopefully that keeps them safe. No guarantees though if he goes for it. [/font]
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[LoBaron]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58



I agree they tend to "go" when 2Es won't. Maybe the durability rating? Or the gun defenses?

It is much simpler. Medium bombers do not fly if potential CAP outnumbers potential escorts by more than 50(IIRC)%.

For heavies that rule does not apply.

Ha! My 2E are happy to fly into huge CAP and get decimated. Happens regularly.[:D]

Yep, sorry. I did not word my last post correctly.

AFAIK meds need to pass a check to continue to target - even if potential escorts are outnumbered by CAP over target by a certain percentage. An attribute that enables to pass that check is cmdr agg (which is quite abundant for Japan).

You sure already noticed occasionally those in game messages stating "unescorted bombers withdraw". This is what I was referring to, and that check does not apply to heavy bombers. Hope that clearifies things.

[obvert]

Yeah, I know, just being silly. But it does help to know the exact mechanism, which I wasn't aware of before.

I do get some of the "unescorted bombers withdraw" messages, but they are often a portion of the whole. I do tend to use aggressive strike group leaders, and that is both good and bad, depending on the situation. After this game is done I'd love to do some tests of aggression levels and results. It would be interesting to see if the 50 level aggression commanders will have more 'sense' and if the 40 level commanders will ever flay at all. Some of the small kami groups have had poor commanders recently, in the 45 aggression and 40 leadership area, and didn't fly much with good targets in range, no CAP, etc.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]25 June 1945[/font]
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]KOREA: [/font] Again bombing troops at Gunzan, and again the number of planes at Moppo increases. According to my recon now there are around 2k+ airframes there now. I know 4E are based there. If we could sneak some BBs through, wow! Can't do anything right now.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]STRAT BOMBING:[/font] Nothing today. Nice to see the B-29s at least have to rest for one day occasionally.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]HOME ISLANDS: [/font] Even with the extra being pumped out by Tokyo and Osaka I can't get supply to go up. I'm disbanding more training groups.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]RECON: [/font] Like the Ki-95. No losses so far. The camera seems to make a big difference in results too. Only 3-4 planes over Moppo and it's a pretty clear picture (I think).

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]CHINA: [/font]Now to wait for the Allied armies to approach. I'll move into the +3 and build forts.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 25, 45 - NIGHT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Masan at 102,54, Range 6,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
MTB G-452, Shell hits 2
MTB G-453, Shell hits 1
MTB G-454
MTB G-455, Shell hits 2
MTB G-461, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
PF Tacoma
PF Sausalito
PF Pocatello
PF Grand Forks

Improved night sighting under 96% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 96% moonlight: 11,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 25, 45 - AFTERNOON
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Afternoon Air attack on Gunzan , at 102,52

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 77 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 33 minutes

Allied aircraft
A-26B Invader x 12
B-24D1 Liberator x 6
B-24J Liberator x 21
P-38L Lightning x 38
F6F-5 Hellcat x 33
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 18
PB4Y-2 Privateer x 17

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 2 damaged
PB4Y-2 Privateer: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
386 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 35 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 26 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled

Airbase hits 15
Airbase supply hits 11
Runway hits 51

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x PB4Y-2 Privateer bombing from 9000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 7, 45 - GROUND
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Masan (102,54)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 67633 troops, 1300 guns, 1128 vehicles, Assault Value = 2641

Defending force 113321 troops, 1512 guns, 300 vehicles, Assault Value = 3860

Japanese ground losses:
21 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
26 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Ground combat at Wuchang (84,51)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 12195 troops, 176 guns, 130 vehicles, Assault Value = 492

Defending force 6603 troops, 68 guns, 11 vehicles, Assault Value = 205

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 3

Allied adjusted assault: 117

Japanese adjusted defense: 137

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), preparation(-)
experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: leaders(+), leaders(-), fatigue(-)

Japanese ground losses:
242 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 15 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled

Allied ground losses:
77 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Assaulting units:
6th Australian Division

Defending units:
1st Ind.Mixed Brigade
90th JAAF AF Bn

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 81,55 (near Pingsiang)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 5460 troops, 360 guns, 396 vehicles, Assault Value = 1402

Defending force 118397 troops, 1096 guns, 640 vehicles, Assault Value = 3175

Japanese ground losses:
59 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 15 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/font]

Reinforcements: none.

Losses: none.

Ships Sunk:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]CV Victorious is reported to have been sunk near Nakadori-jima on May 14, 1945
CVE Shamrock Bay is reported to have been sunk near Keijo on Jun 01, 1945
DD Hopewell is reported to have been sunk near Nakadori-jima on May 15, 1945[/font]
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[font="Trebuchet MS"]Now well over 2,000 aircraft are based at Moppo. I don't think the Allies will easily let bombardments go in now, but if ne did get through ... [:)][/font]
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[Capt. Harlock]

CV Victorious is reported to have been sunk near Nakadori-jima on May 14, 1945

Intelligence seems to be "a day behind the fair" . . .[;)]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

CV Victorious is reported to have been sunk near Nakadori-jima on May 14, 1945

Intelligence seems to be "a day behind the fair" . . .[;)]

I don't trust the sunk list much, especially with the kind of big battles that have happened in the past few months.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]26 - 30 June 1945[/font]
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[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]THE GAME: [/font] Wow. Lately, in the last week or so, my interest in the game has dropped off the map. It's been pretty good up until now, and I don't think it's so much that things are difficult, it's just a long slog through 44-45, and I'm feeling it. Most turns I've just been playing with pilots and getting planes in air groups. Not much else to do while I click past hundreds of waves of Allied bomber runs.

I'll try a few last desperate attempts to make something happen, but I doubt much can be achieved here at this point, as it should be.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]KOREA: [/font] The Allies have moved a large army up within one hex of Gunzan. Looks like 27 units. If that moves into Gunzan it should spell the end there. The bombing runs have taken their toll, and our troops are fighting high disruption levels.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]STRAT BOMBING:[/font] The B-29s finally begin to finish off Manchurian industry. It's been largely unprotected for months, but the HI can't draw fuel from Port Arthur (27k right now) so it might as well not be there.

They also target an A6M NF factory at Nagoya, and the NF come up in force ... only to be shot down in huge numbers. Over 50 NF lost for 5-6 B-29. Huh.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]HOME ISLANDS: [/font] Just upgrading and filling out air units. Boring stuff. A few sweeps here and there, but he Allies are largely focused on Korea.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]CHINA: [/font] The Allies land at Ningpo with a few divisions. Hangchow should be fine against this much, but of course more could be piled in once the base in secure. I'll pull back 1k AV into that base.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 27, 45
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Night Air attack on Anshan , at 102,43

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 23

No Allied losses

Light Industry hits 21

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x B-29-1 Superfort bombing from 8000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on Kumamoto , at 102,59

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 22 NM, estimated altitude 35,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 9
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 4
Ki-84r Frank x 17
Ki-100-I Tony x 2

Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 3 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 4 destroyed

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Morning Air attack on Gunzan , at 102,52

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 34 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 12
Liberator GR.VI x 3
B-24J Liberator x 12
A-26B Invader x 28
B-24D1 Liberator x 12
B-24J Liberator x 3
B-25J11 Mitchell x 12
P-38J Lightning x 18
P-38L Lightning x 62
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 15
PB4Y-2 Privateer x 41

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 damaged
A-26B Invader: 1 damaged
B-25J11 Mitchell: 1 damaged
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 1 damaged
PB4Y-2 Privateer: 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
315 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 15 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 23 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Airbase hits 6
Airbase supply hits 8
Runway hits 40

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x PB4Y-2 Privateer bombing from 9000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Ground combat at Gunzan (102,52)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 108476 troops, 2030 guns, 3366 vehicles, Assault Value = 4995

Defending force 210406 troops, 2494 guns, 728 vehicles, Assault Value = 7019

Japanese ground losses:
964 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 74 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 20 (5 destroyed, 15 disabled)
Vehicles lost 4 (2 destroyed, 2 disabled)

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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 28, 45
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Night Air attack on Nagoya , at 111,60

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-S Irving x 11
J1N1-Sa Irving x 6
Ki-45 KAId Nick x 8
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah x 34

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 29

Japanese aircraft losses
J1N1-S Irving: 1 destroyed
Ki-45 KAId Nick: 1 destroyed
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 4 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 8000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 29, 45
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Night Time Surface Combat, near Ningpo at 92,56, Range 11,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
MTB G-889

Allied Ships
CL Gambia
CLAA Flint
CLAA Tucson
CL Richmond
DD Carmick
DD Shubrick
DD Patterson
DD Van Nes
DD Evertsen
DD Kortenaer
APA W.A. Holbrook
APA Leonard Wood
APA Pierce
APA Sheridan
APA Baxter
APA Griggs
APA Eastland
APA Montrose
APA Marvin McIntyre
APA Gage
APA Oconto
APA McCracken
APA Rawlins
APA New Kent
APA Sibley
APA Magoffin
APA Navarro
LCI-61
LCI-64
LCI-65
LCI-66
LCI-67
LCI-68
LCI-69
LCI(G)-76
LCI(G)-462
LCI(G)-463
LCI(G)-464
LCI(G)-465
LCI(G)-466
LCI(G)-467
LCI(G)-528
LCI(G)-530

Improved night sighting under 75% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 75% moonlight: 11,000 yards

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Morning Air attack on Gunzan , at 102,52

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 34 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 12
B-24J Liberator x 167
P-38J Lightning x 2
P-38L Lightning x 71
F6F-5 Hellcat x 33
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 12
PB4Y-2 Privateer x 46

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 6 damaged
PB4Y-2 Privateer: 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
1320 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 94 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 78 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 14 disabled
Vehicles lost 36 (8 destroyed, 28 disabled)

Airbase hits 8
Airbase supply hits 4
Runway hits 40

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Ground combat at Gunzan (102,52)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 109018 troops, 2032 guns, 3371 vehicles, Assault Value = 5046

Defending force 208376 troops, 2602 guns, 971 vehicles, Assault Value = 7096

Japanese ground losses:
923 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 51 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 40 (6 destroyed, 34 disabled)
Vehicles lost 15 (7 destroyed, 8 disabled)

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Reinforcements:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]Oshima Naval Guard Unit arrives at Tokyo
9th JNAF Coy arrives at Tokyo
APD T-22 arrives at Nagasaki/Sasebo[/font]

Losses:

[font="Trebuchet MS"][/font]

Ships Sunk:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]Previous report of sinking of DD Mannert Abele incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service
Previous report of sinking of SS Terrapin incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service
CV Viking is reported to have been sunk near Nakadori-jima on May 14, 1945
CVE Wake Island is reported to have been sunk near Kaishu on Jun 03, 1945
xAK Diloma is reported to have been sunk near Batan Island on May 18, 1945
Previous report of sinking of DD Thatcher incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service
Previous report of sinking of SS Dentuda incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service
SS Roncador is reported to have been sunk near Tsushima on May 10, 1945
AK Manderson Victory is reported to have been sunk near Moppo on May 16, 1945
[/font]
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[font="Trebuchet MS"]This looks like it might produce good resulta and big kills to the 4Es. Instead, 5-6 B-29s are shot down for the losses of 50+ NF!! Oh, well. [/font]
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[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]CONTEMPLATING THE END[/font]
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I've sent a note to Jocke letting him know I've lost the momentum and interest at this point, and if I keep going it will likely not be so competitive for him. That is not only due to my feeling right now but also the game as it stands. I'm really only capable of desperation moves, even though I've known this for a while. I've always wanted to make it to the bitter end, but I also want to be fair to my opponent, and not make the end into something where he's still putting a lot of energy into it and not getting much back.

So we're having a discussion. We'll see how he responds, as I've still left it open to continue.

Some of this was precipitated by the July 1st turn. I sent in another last ditch bombardment run, which should have met a bunch of Allied ships for a grand finale of the IJN. Instead they stopped a few hexes short and got creamed by air strikes. All 15 ships in the big TF sunk including 6 BBs. I knew I'd lose them when I set the turn, but that isn't such a fun way to go. They moved 3 hexes on the day. It was a risk, I took it, and in spite of Tanaka, absolute threat tolerance and plenty of due, they just decided not to go. Maybe the AI 'saw' what was waiting.

This is not the reason to stop the game though, as the ships would have been lost this turn anyway, just in a more exciting fashion. It is more that the intrigue and mystery are quickly disappearing, the capability to run the economy is dwindling, and it is spring. It's 21 C today (70+ F) and I just want to be outside, not cleaning up broken IJ air groups! [:D]
[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Fusan at 102,55

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 34 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 17
A7M2 Sam x 4
J2M5 Jack x 3
N1K1 Rex x 1
N1K2-J George x 32
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 4
Ki-84a Frank x 6
Ki-84r Frank x 8
Ki-100-I Tony x 13
Ki-102a Randy x 1

Allied aircraft
Hellcat I x 36
Hellcat F.II x 20
F6F-5 Hellcat x 417
SB2C-4 Helldiver x 175
TBM-3 Avenger x 17

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 3 destroyed
A7M2 Sam: 2 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 5 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 3 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 3 destroyed
Ki-102a Randy: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hellcat I: 2 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 8 destroyed
SB2C-4 Helldiver: 2 destroyed, 17 damaged
SB2C-4 Helldiver: 3 destroyed by flak
TBM-3 Avenger: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
BB Fuso, Bomb hits 12, heavy fires
BB Mutsu, Bomb hits 12, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires
BB Yamato, Bomb hits 10, heavy fires
BB Ise, Bomb hits 16, Torpedo hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB Hyuga, Bomb hits 11, heavy fires
BB Musashi, Bomb hits 11, heavy fires
DD Tsubaki, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Kaba, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Yanagi
DD Hinoki
DD Nara, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage

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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Fusan at 102,55

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 36 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 1

Allied aircraft
SB2C-4 Helldiver x 28
TBM-3 Avenger x 44

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
SB2C-4 Helldiver: 3 damaged
TBM-3 Avenger: 2 destroyed, 9 damaged

Japanese Ships
BB Hyuga, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires
BB Fuso, Torpedo hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Kashi
BB Mutsu, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Hinoki
BB Yamato, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Yanagi
DD Keyaki, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
BB Musashi, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
DD Tsubaki, heavy fires, heavy damage

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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Fusan at 102,55

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 64 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 28 minutes

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft
Avenger II x 18

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Avenger II: 4 damaged

Japanese Ships
BB Musashi, Torpedo hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB Yamato, Torpedo hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB Hyuga, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB Fuso, and is sunk
DD Kaya
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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Fusan at 102,55

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 36 minutes

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft
SBD-5 Dauntless x 15
TBM-1C Avenger x 42

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
TBM-1C Avenger: 3 damaged
TBM-1C Avenger: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese Ships
DD Kashi
DD Yanagi, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB Yamato, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB Musashi, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB Hyuga, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB Mutsu, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Tsubaki, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Hinoki, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Odake
DD Keyaki, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Fusan at 102,55

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 37 minutes

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft
TBM-3 Avenger x 67

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
TBM-3 Avenger: 3 damaged

Japanese Ships
BB Musashi, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
DD Odake
BB Hyuga, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
DD Kashi, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Kaya, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
BB Yamato, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
DD Kaba, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Nara, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
DD Yanagi, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Aircraft Attacking:
21 x TBM-3 Avenger launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 22in Mk 13 Torpedo
[/font]

[princep01]

Obvert....or is that Felix the Cat, I have not visited your AAR much as I was reading JOC's daily. However, now that the game is winding down, I wanted to stop by and wish you the best in both gaming and in your life. You are a most worthy opponent. You are welcome in my tribe at anytime. A well played game and an even better exchange of AAR commentary. Excellent sportsmanship was shown by both of you. This is a model for all gamers to match.

Also, I must say that now that spring has begun to arrive there, I cannot blame you at all for wishing to be outside in Bonny Old England. Having recently visited London for a few days, it only whetted my desire to send much more time in that fair city's grasp. To stand in Trafalgar Square and realize that there was more history within a two block radius than all of Texas, was just tantalizing in the extreme. I cannot wait to visit again and this time I will stay much longer (and bring a lot more money).

I have traveled extensively in western and central Europe and thus far there are only three cities I would chose to live in outside the US. Those are London, Florence and Interlaken (Switzerland). London is listed first for a reason. What a tremendous place to be....and you are there. Enjoy it to the hilt!

Thanks again for a tremendous game!

[aztez]

Enjoy and it surely was an journey. Nothing wrong about the "PBEM fatigue". I have gone through that and it does hit near the end of things.

It was an good fight! [:D]

[SqzMyLemon]

Well played Erik. Congratulations on making it as far as you could before hitting the wall. Excellent and entertaining AAR. Thanks for all the time and effort into documenting a late game Japan.