Ukraine 2014

[gregb41352]

No. The Chinese know that the US will defend Taiwan. No question.

[gregb41352]

This one: USS Truxton [DDG 103]


One of these, perhaps?
Destroyer Squadron 22
USS Cole [DDG 67]
USS Mahan [DDG 72]
USS McFaul [DDG 74]
USS Mason [DDG 87]
USS Nitze [DDG 94]
USS Truxton [DDG 103]
USS Elrod [FFG 55]

USS Leyte Gulf [CG 55]
USS Philippine Sea [CG 58]
USS Anzio [CG 68]

[jdkbph]

ORIGINAL: gobadgers

No. The Chinese know that the US will defend Taiwan. No question.

Really? I don't think it's necessarily that straight forward at all. If pro-reunification political elements arose within Taiwan (no matter how suspicious it may appear to outsiders) and, with some semblance of popular backing, were able to seize control, what exactly would we be "defending"? How far would we be willing to go in China's back yard?

Depending on the outcome of this Ukrainian thing, it seems to me something like that may actually be easier (for China) to justify than, say, outright annexation of the Spratleys or taking Senkaku Shoto (Diaoyu Islands).

???

JD

[NakedWeasel]

ORIGINAL: jdkbph

ORIGINAL: gobadgers

No. The Chinese know that the US will defend Taiwan. No question.

Really? I don't think it's necessarily that straight forward at all. If pro-reunification political elements arose within Taiwan (no matter how suspicious it may appear to outsiders) and, with some semblance of popular backing, were able to seize control, what exactly would we be "defending"? How far would we be willing to go in China's back yard?

Depending on the outcome of this Ukrainian thing, it seems to me something like that may actually be easier (for China) to justify than, say, outright annexation of the Spratleys or taking Senkaku Shoto (Diaoyu Islands).

???

JD

Agreed. Actually, I would not be at all surprised to see the Taiwan issue turn out much like present-day Ukraine. There are definitely elements in Taiwan that would welcome reunification with the mainland, and in this climate of capitulation and non-involvement, especially in the face of real danger of extreme losses, I doubt the American people are going to see much need to involve ourselves on China's doorstep.

[mikeCK]

The wild card with Taiwan is whether or not South Korea and Japan help out. Everyone is afraid of China over there.

[guanotwozero]

Most political sentiment in Taiwan IS pro-unification - just not while the mainland is a communist one-party state. The KMT, who dominated Taiwanese politics for decades, were originally the government of all China but withdrew to Taiwan during the civil war. Thus both Beijing and Taipei claim to house the official government of all China.

Of course the practicality is that they are two self-governing states, but there is still an expectation that they will reunify one day. Taiwan won't agree to that until the mainland has free politics (and maybe the KMT might win an all-China election), while the mainland continues to reject democracy and still intermittently threatens to force unification by military means.

I DO think the US will defend Taiwan if the mainland ever invaded, though at present Beijing just doesn't have sufficient means to do so. If/when reunification happens by mutual agreement, then everyone will be happy.

This contrasts with the current Ukraine crisis, as Ukraine has no allies who'll defend it militarily. The USA or other nations won't risk war with Russia, but likely will enact punitive sanctions if it goes all the way. What's more, Russia will likely become a pariah nation to many, and Ukraine will get sympathy and diplomatic support. Russia may dominate here militarily, but can't win the soft-power war.

The track record of countries successfully grabbing land since WWII is not good; self-determination often wins out in the end, and it's diplomacy, economics and soft power that are the biggest factors.

[NakedWeasel]

With American backing, and possibly with the involvement of ANZAC, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, and Thailand, the ROKs and Japan would probably be on board. And the Chinese government would certainly have a reason to fear a force like that. A unified PACRIM could completely deny PLAN shipping any access beyond it's home ports. This is a future scenario I'll probably explore. But I really don't want to digress from this discussion...

[Figeac]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-0 ... ussia.html

[NakedWeasel]

ORIGINAL: Figeac

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-0 ... ussia.html

Thanks for the contribution.

Interesting. In the pic on Bloomberg, the F-15C was not carrying any AAW beyond AIM-9s (and probably cannon.) I'm guessing a ferry config? Maybe that jet had just arrived in Lithuania- but wouldn't they have ferried into the AO with at least four AMRAAMs on the conformal hard points?

Anyway. 10 F-15s does not a statement make... [>:]

[AlmightyTallest]

I would not be surprised if there weren't a few Rapid Raptors in the area.

Google "Rapid Raptor Package" in The Aviationist magazine

I can't post links yet [:(]

Also getting good info on troop movements, attacks etc. using reddit live, search for "Ukrainian Conflict Live Thread" and you'll get a lot more updates on what's going on, tons of journalists and news pouring into the one site will help with campaign building as well perhaps.

[NakedWeasel]

ORIGINAL: AlmightyTallest

I would not be surprised if there weren't a few Rapid Raptors in the area.

Google "Rapid Raptor Package" in The Aviationist magazine

I can't post links yet [:(]

Also getting good info on troop movements, attacks etc. using reddit live, search for "Ukrainian Conflict Live Thread" and you'll get a lot more updates on what's going on, tons of journalists and news pouring into the one site will help with campaign building as well perhaps.

I hadnt heard of the F-22 package before- though it seems it's just a smaller, more specialized unit, as opposed to the big, multi-role expeditionary packages the USAF can generate to deal with global threats.

I think that if Raptors were there, EVERYONE would know about it. All it would take is one sighting- and there's A LOT of people watching right now.

[lowchi]

ORIGINAL: NakedWeasel


I think that if Raptors were there, EVERYONE would know about it. All it would take is one sighting- and there's A LOT of people watching right now.

i think so too. and dont forget the aircraft spotters

http://www.airliners.net/photo/USA---Ai ... 57e3f61390

[NakedWeasel]

Heh, who needs the KGB? (FSB) [:'(]

[beserko]

The fighters are just a "speed bump" like US troops in Korea. If they get hurt we go in (at least that's the theory}

[beserko]

[beserko]

The U.S. Navy’s newest and most powerful aircraft carrier has docked in Antalya, Turkey—meaning she is within striking distance of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. And it appears Russia is deploying anti-ship missiles in response.

USS George H.W. Bush is hauling more than 60 warplanes including no fewer than 40 Hornet and Super Hornet strike-fighters. Bush’s escorting destroyers and cruisers, together packing hundreds of long-range missiles, are presumably nearby. Nuclear attack submarines usually also accompany American flattops on deployment

[Sardaukar]

I wonder if she still has X-47B that was tested on her....

[gregb41352]

Given all the open information available, is anyone working on a scenario for this?
I can only contemplate after the current semester is completed.....May

[Sardaukar]

Baloogan is.

[Sardaukar]

Some information about north Russia from Finnish sources etc.:



Petsamo: 200th Motorized Infantry Brigade (high readiness) and Marine Brigade. In future, plans to form Arctic warfare Spetnatz Brigade there too.

Alakurtti: just few days ago, Putin announced re-opening the base. At least helicopter regiment is planned there. It already houses Border Guard unit etc.

Petroskoi: 4th Infantry Brigade and MVD (Interior Ministry) Brigade.

Kamenka: 138th Motorized Infantry Brigade.

Luga: SSM Brigade (SS-26 Iskander M, SS-21 Totshka)

Vladimirsky Lager: 4th infantry brigade

Pihkova (Pskov): 76th Airborne Division and Spetznatz Brigade.

All these units are ready to deploy in short time.