Japanese Oil and V. 3.2

[Capt. Harlock]

In my latest game, the Japanese advance has been just about stopped cold. (I can't claim much of the credit--the AI has been very unagressive.) It's the last week in May 1942, and Singapore and Manila are still holding out. Rangoon fell, but that's the furthest base in the CBI theatre that Tojo has, and even that is probably isolated by British air power. Most of all, there hasn't been so much as a single Japanese boot laid on Sumatra or Java. I've attached a map in case anyone wants to see.

This should add up to a disaster for the Japanese National Oil Reserve, and for the economy as a whole. Instead, the Oil Reserve stands at 38,000 units AND RISING.

I consider this a major problem. The oil shortage affected Japanese strategy for the entire war. In fact, it can be argued that it is the reason the war started (the American embargo) and the main reason the Japanese lost. If the Japanese home islands have somehow become self-sufficient, or even nearly so, than Version 3.2 is simply not a realistic simulation.

[Jeremy Pritchard]

Here is the reason why the East Indies have not been conquered yet, based on your map.

#1. Singapore not captured.

#2. Manila not captured.

The Japanese target these two bases before any attack on the East Indies is done, based primarily because without taking these bases their lines of commuication can easily be cut.

Without the fall of Singapore and Manila, the IJN attack in the East Indies will be stalled after taking Borneo and Celebes. If the AI just skips Singapore and Manila, and go after Java/Sumatra, then the Allies can easily cut off the Japanese spearhead. Unfortunatley, the AI is not very intelligent. It cannot react beyond a set of peramiters. It gets stumped when certain objectives cannot be reached.

The AI is somewhat intelligent, the respective armies will not try and make amphibious assaults without the support of the IJN. The IJN has targets in the Philippines, Malaya and the East Indies, all in different ranking orders. If a stumbling block is encountered, where say the 25th Army cannot secure Singapore, the Combined Fleet then targets the base and you get hit by BB and CV strikes.

There is also a time limit. If certain bases are not captured within so many months the attack is called off as the AI thinks that securing their objectives is impossible and goes on defensive mode in around the middle of 1942.

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Why is the oil still high?

#1. Borneo has a large amount of oil.

#2. IJN Transports and Tankers are more efficent when Japan is the AI.

The main reason for a shortage of oil in Japan was due to merchant shipping losses. Japan really only had a shortage of oil in 1944, when the shipping lanes were being closed off by the USN. This is what killes the Japnaese oil supply, as a stockpile of 38 000 will quickly run out once the subs start savaging the Tankers.

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Why do the Japanese stop at Rangoon?

This is intentional. For the basic Japanese AI, I have them stop at Rangoon.

Why?

The reason behind this is that the Japanese AI sets itself up badly when it tries to take India/Burma without the full support of their military. I have seen the AI send 2 divisions overland into Imphal, only to get cut off and destroyed by a British landing in Rangoon in late 1942. This usually destroyes 2 Japanese Divisions, as they cannot figure out how to respond to this attack. The Divisions in the central part of Burma just sit at Imphal and disappear.

I have created an alternate AI that has the Japanese AI do a full assault on Burma/India/Ceylon, which works very well (I even get the IJN to support it). However, I am at an impass in my set of AI's which will gradually be worked out.

So, basically what comes with the 3.2 version is the basic and cautious AI's, where the Japanese expand to secure the resources, but do not try and strike out beyond their limitations, making reconquest harder. The Allies attack pretty much like they did historically, focussing on particular islands and lines of advance.

[Pete]

The main reason for a shortage of oil in Japan was due to merchant shipping losses. Japan really only had a shortage of oil in 1944, when the shipping lanes were being closed off by the USN. This is what killes the Japnaese oil supply, as a stockpile of 38 000 will quickly run out once the subs start savaging the Tankers.

There must be more to it than that. I finished a game in 4/45 with the Japanese having a 200,000+ oil reserve. I had the computer controlling the subs and they were sinking 10+ MCS and a couple TKs per turn on average but it didn't dent the oil as you can see.



I sank over 900 MCS and 125 TKs by the end of the game. I haven't been playing PacWar long (since 3.1), and this is only the first game I've played to completion so I don't know if the numbers sunk are good/bad/average.

There is also a time limit. If certain bases are not captured within so many months the attack is called off as the AI thinks that securing their objectives is impossible and goes on defensive mode in around the middle of 1942.

I think this is what happened. We got into a fight for Lae in mid '42 where he lost 3 CVs and 3 CVLs. The fighting lasted maybe 4 turns without him taking it and then he just pulled out. After that I never saw another fleet that wasn't running away until I invaded Tokyo. I could take whatever I wanted and my only opposition was LBA.

[Capt. Harlock]

I ran an experiment to see if the above results were a fluke. I set the computer to play itself, selecting "Help Allied" to try to keep the Japanese oil supply down. By February 1945 the National Oil Reserve was up to over 140,000 units, and the Japanese had only conquered the oil bases they did historically.

(Side bar: the Allied AI is very poor at using CVE's : it had lost 25 of them.)

It is well worth noting that the Preparation Points the Japanese get are dependent on the oil supply. At the level I found, the Japanese are getting 3600 PP's per turn. Something is definitely out of line here. Has anyone managed to advance significantly into a PBEM game, with both sides Human?

[deVada]

althrough Japanese human player took Australia, India, Indonesia and Philipines, his oil level is nearly zero since two years.

haven't even tried to play a full campaing under 3.2
when we'll finish, next game is planned.

[teukros]

I partially confirmed this. I set up a two player campaign 1941 game, even balance, no historical first move. I ran it through the first year of the war, to December 13 1942. With all HQs on full computer control the Japanese did not take a single base in the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia or Burma. So with the Japanese supposedly down to their last three months of oil on December 7, 1941, their oil reserve as of December 13, 1942 was 23584.

Is there a fix for this? Should I restart my game (as the Allies) and give myself max help? Or should I use an editor to subtract 1000 oil from Japan's reserve every week? Or are we simply now expected to bomb the snot out of Palembang, Rangoon and Tientsin?

Or should I just play 2.3?

Thanks

[strawb]

In my v3.2 pbem with Hans, it is March 1941. I have just moped up Java (Surabaya fell in early march '42) and Philippines, but I took palembang, miri, rangoon etc in first few weeks.

Hans has sunk one (1) tanker so far and 23 MCS (Nagoya packed with DDs)

I have every heavy unit of IJN out burning up fuel like we own Texas plus far too many other task forces out due to my er.. eclectic tactics.

Result? My oil stock is 6000, my resources 180,000

Over to you Capt et al for comment. Will keep track as we go along.

[teukros]

I just finished reading your recap of your game (so far). Good stuff!

Re: the oil, fascinating! What on earth is going on here?

In light of your experience, maybe it would be enough to use an editor to reduce from five to zero (in each case) the oil provided each turn by the Home Islands cities of Nagoya, Aomori and Sapporo (and maybe Karafuto? Was/is Sakhalin Island an oil source (whale oil? ))

I mean, three oil sources on the Home Islands that they don't even need transports for...

[teukros]

I just finished reading your recap of your game (so far). Good stuff!

Re: the oil, fascinating! What on earth is going on here?

In light of your experience, maybe it would be enough to use an editor to reduce from five to zero (in each case) the oil provided each turn by the Home Islands cities of Nagoya, Aomori and Sapporo (and maybe Karafuto? Was/is Sakhalin Island an oil source (whale oil? ))

I mean, three oil sources on the Home Islands that they don't even need transports for...

[Capt. Harlock]

I looks like the surplus of Japanese oil isn't as severe in a two-human-player game. (I think Jeremy Pritchard adjusted the efficiency of oil utilization for the Computer AI so that it wouldn't run of Oil or Preparation Points, and thus would pose more of a challenge.)

We'll have to see what happens when the IJN is in a "quiet" phase and not consuming much oil. Of course, judging from the after-action reports, that may not ever happen...

[mogami]

Hi, While some of the numbers do not look like they are reasonable.

If the Japanese are inactive and do not use the IJN they will not use fuel. If they do not train airgroups they will not use fuel.
In order to get the Japanese oil reserve to rise in 2 player games the Japanese player has to cut use down below production.
(A few weeks of inports with no consumption can rise the reserve considerably) This is a usefull thing to do prior to launching a new Japanese offensive. (or right before the allies launch one)
Japanese players should also remember their victory points are connected to the fuel reserve and keep it as high as possible.
Don't use the old slow BB unless they are required. DOn't move ships around without reason. And only train airgroups in home Islands it wastes fuel to ship to forward base only to burn it training. Do not ship fuel where it is not required.
In the older versions I have been able to maintain it around 50k
(It drops to under 4k in 1st 6 months and then slowly climbs)

[boba]

Well, in my current PBEM game (V3.2) we are in July '42 and I can say that IMHO Japanese Oil "problem" looks better with the newest version. It was pretty much steady decline of Oil reservs in first mid '42 and now it's on slow rise (in my last turn it reached more than 9000, the biggest I ever saw in PBEM game!).
My TK loses aren't high since there are much PAtrol LBA's and DD's involved in protection of convoys... On the other hand, I do use BBs and CVs a lot, but usually after a month of preparation so that can save some fuel I suppose...
Anyway, I like it as it is, since it give Japanese a operational freedom more than first 6 months of '42, if you plan carefully and use your TFs only when and where needed...

[teukros]

So I'm using the PacWar Editor 2.1 and I'm still learning its ins and outs, I haven't changed anything yet (though I'm tempted to increase the range and accuracy of all sub launched torpedoes).

The date is Dec 14 1941.

I have loaded my 'saveb' file and I'm checking out the Japanese oil sources and this is what I see:

Sapporo 105
Karafuto 105
Miri 110
Kuching 113
Haiphong 105
Tsingtao 105
Tientsin 125
Saigon 105

(and a bunch of oil sources which are at less than 100, like Palembang)

Looks like in v3.2 the Japanese have more oil than OPEC...

[Capt. Harlock]

It looks like 100 has been added to each of those bases. But possibly that's the code for feeding the oil into the National Oil Reserve? From my examination of the obc41 file, there is no base with more than 99 Oil Resource points.

Check the game itself. Start it up as the Japanese human player, and review the Oil/Resource bases under "industry". I have a feeling that the display will show the oil levels as they ought to be.

[teukros]

When I start a Campaign 1941 scenario and I select Allied Computer (with historical first move, as before), this is what I get:

Sapporo 105
Karafuto 105
Miri 110
Kuching 112 (instead of 113)
Haiphong 105
Tsingtao 105
Shanghai 105 (*)
Tientsin 125
Saigon 105

*Shanghai had this oil level in my saveb file as well but apparently I overlooked it earlier.


However, I have verified that similar hanky-panky seems to occur in v2.3, just not on as large a scale. Instead of having nine bases with over 100 oil the Japanese have only five...

[Mika Väliviita]

If the oil level is 100+ (then actual production is oil-100), it means that it has been picked up by routine convoy, so you can't have better than 99 oil production.