20 DECEMBER 1941
1st wave of Japanese advances appears to be complete with the second likely to occur in the next ten days.
West Coast: After several days of preparations, the first massive convoy of over sixty-five ships has departed San Francisco. The Saratoga CV TF leads the way followed by convoy transporting approximately 20,000 troops and over 100 aircraft to Pearl Harbor for onward movement.
Central Pacific: IJN conducted an invasion of Wake Island which was complete surprise (no detection of inbounds) and was quickly overrun. Midway and the Phoenix/Line Islands are being fortified with troops, patrol craft and being made into advance sub bases to support Sub Zone 1 & 2. The Lexington/Enterprise TF has put out to sea and decision is being made between two raid plans: COA 1 – Ambitious raid on convoy routes from Home Islands or COA 2 – More limited raid on Wake Island.
South Pacific: KB was tracked from Truk heading SE to support a successful landing on Tulagi. Landed USAAF base forces reinforced with NZ battalions at Espirtu Santo and Efate. Eventually plan on moving B17E squadrons in Brisbane (18 AC) to ES to begin bombing operations on Tulagi.
Southwest Pacific: Australia is in very weak position with negligible air and sea power to contest any advance. Australians have several brigades but doesn’t make any sense to pay PP cost and transport them northward without any significant air/sea support. IJ has landed at Manus and Weewak and expect a push into Rabual within a week. Squadron of French subs is guarding the north approaches of Rabual and squadron of A24s is at Port Moseby in order to put up some resistance. Noumea is being established as advance sub base for Sub Zone 3.
DEI: The second most active theater behind the Philippines. IJ has landed at Ternate and Manado. Ternate fell easily but the Manado invasion was understrength and the Dutch are still resisting. Kendari and Ambon have been reinforced with A24s and Gull/Sparrow BNs. The A24s were very effective at the Ternate landing scoring several hits on AKs during the landing. The IJN CVL/CVEs have been ranging south of Mindanao but have yet to contribute significantly. The Allies have put together a CV/CA Fleet built around the CVL Charlotte and Dutch/US Cruisers. The first counterattack attacked north through the Makassar Strait with the IJ Carriers were confirmed Pelilu and sank/damaged 2 AKs IVO Zamboaga. The second counterattack went up the west coast of Borneo in order to catch IJ BBs/CAs off Singkawang. Japanese Zeroes were out in force and shot down all 12 Charlotte SBDs. The Allied fleet is moving back to Java to repair/refuel and evaluate next move, possibly attempting to cover expected Japanese moves against Sumatra.
Philippines: The IJ main effort has fallen heavy on the PI but the forces are currently holding. IJ airpower has decimated USAAF/PI fighter cover and B17s operating on Luzon. PBYs have been relocated into the center islands and have scored notable hits IVO Legaspi (4 AK/APs sunk/damaged). The Japanese landings have occurred on the north, east and south of Luzon but all are currently blocked by significant concentrations of USA/PI troops. Mauban has the largest concentration with 13K IJA vs. 8K allied forces. The most significant check was at San Fernando where PI Troops supported by US armor destroyed the Kanno Detachment. IJ is landing more forces at all beach heads and eventually one of the allied positions will break (San Fernando position will be my guess), probably before the end of the year.
Malaya and SE Asia: IJ advance through Malaysia is starting to pick up steam with recent landing at Kuantuan and IJ advance towards Kuala Lumpur. First defensive line north of Kuala Lumpur can probably handle the initial thrust but the Kuantuan landing will likely unhinged this line. The second defensive line at Mersing is being prepared. Sea Traffic is still viable out of Singapore as IJN Nells/Bettys haven’t been spotted in the area for several turns (IJA level bombers are carrying the load at Malaysia). Air operations are becoming increasingly expensive with 1:2.5 losses typical but Singapore has only been lightly hit and LBs/TBs have scored several hits on vessels at Kuantuan landings. Off the north coast of Borneo, Dutch submarines have scored two notable successes with the O19 hitting the CA Takao with one torpedo and the KXV putting one torpedo into the CM Adzuma. The IJA conducted a paratroop assault on Port Blair (and lost several Transport aircraft in the process) and established a patrol aircraft base. A RN Bombardment TF (PoW and Repulse) conducted a raid on Port Blair and severely damaged the airfield and the Air Support Company (250+ casualties), rendering it useless for the time being. Burma is being reinforced with particular emphasis on the coast.
China: IJA offensive has been very successful and have conducted rapid advance to Changsa but are now checked by large buildup of Chinese forces. The supply cost of maintaining the force there will be huge but it will be necessary cost. Chinese counterattack at Ichang seized the city causing 5K plus casualties on both sides. Several minor actions have occurred with the Chinese typically taking the worst of engagements.
Further Thoughts: Erkki seems to like doing simultaneous invasions with the thrusts into the DEI consisting of several landings on the same day or close together. I suspect that a second way is getting ready to occur with the objectives being Rabual/Lae, Celebes, and possibly Sumatra. I have been somewhat surprised by the leisurely pace in the PIs and Malaysia but he appears to be picking up the pace in both (think he might have under resourced those invasions but judging by amounts of traffic at PI/Malysian beachheads, he is addressing that deficiency). He has been playing conservatively with his carriers in my opinion, covering existing invasions rather than ranging in front of them. My initial plan of attrition on his AKs/APs while retaining as much Fleet power as possible still seems sound.
My losses to date have been 133 Allied ships to 8 IJN. The losses are not nearly as bad given that the majority of them (114) occurred in the first three days and consistent of the merchant vessels, auxillaries, and subs in the PI. The IJN has lost 8 but have likely scored significant hits on twice that number. I have lost 318 to 160 IJ losses. The majority of my losses have been P40 B/Es in the PI (70+) and Buffalos at Singapore while the majority of the IJ losses have been Nells/Betties over the PI.
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