Scenario background -- how plausible is this?

[Mgellis]

Okay, a question for you history and alternate history buffs. I've worked up a backstory for a scenario (possibly a group of them) and I was wondering how plausible this is. Please let me know what you think. Thanks.

----cut here----

December 13, 1981: In response to the Solidarity movement, Martial Law is declared in Poland <-- this actually happened; everything else is an alternate history speculation

December 15, 1981: Riots break out in several Polish cities, particularly in Gda&#324;sk

December 17, 1981: Riots continue; Soviet forces begin to mass on the border; Soviet warships sortie

December 20, 1981: Polish forces have contained most of the riots by this time, reducing the likelihood of an actual invasion, but six Soviet warships and an unknown number of submarines are now near or in Gda&#324;sk harbor, quasi-blockade in place to prevent Solidarity from receiving any international support or aid, and slow down trade and punish Poland overall for being a troublemaker

January 2, 1982: Riots have died down by this time, but both the Poles and the Soviets know that Solidarity is regrouping and getting ready to stage more protests, perhaps even start some kind of revolution, and the Soviets are still on edge; British merchant in international waters near Gda&#324;sk is challenged by Soviet warships and is fired on when it does not immediately stop for inspection; four British seamen injured

January 11, 1982: British convoy leaves Southhampton for Gda&#324;sk; Soviets warned not to interfere with maritime trade; British naval officers are ordered to treat Soviet warships getting too close to British merchants (one mile or less) as hostile

(The scenario takes place when the convoy arrives in Polish waters)

[Randomizer]

How vital to the British economy was trade with Poland in 1981? It strikes me that this would be unlikely as there was much to lose, little to gain and provides a possible trigger for the defensive provisions of the Warsaw Pact to kick in. I see it as unilateral and a deliberately provocative move of dubious political gain.

But it makes for an interesting situation.

What might have happened if Solidarity created a popular rising (perhaps with a mutiny in the Polish armed forces) and established a rump "democratic" Poland on the coast? The rebels appeal to NATO but the Soviet Union declares a naval "quarantine" of the breakaway state and assembles forces to impose a military solution on the revolt. NATO decides to challenge the WP blockade. Still improbable but I would submit that this (or similar) situation provides an appropriate back story since destabilizing the Baltic Sea directly affects NATO as a whole.

Now a NATO "freedom of the seas" demonstration is more plausible particularly if coupled with your innocent merchant ship action as a trigger event. Various extraneous events could make the RN the lead and West German and Danish participation can be messaged to taste.

Just $0.02 CAD.

-C

[Mgellis]

Yes, I think you're right. I don't think Polish trade was that important to Britain; I was thinking more that Thatcher tended to not back down when she thought she was dealing with thugs or bullies.

Oh well...back to the drawing board!

[NickD]

ORIGINAL: Mgellis

Yes, I think you're right. I don't think Polish trade was that important to Britain; I was thinking more that Thatcher tended to not back down when she thought she was dealing with thugs or bullies.

[politics] Unless she was friendly with them (eg, Pinochet). [/politics]

It's very unlikely that any British naval commander during the Cold War would have been given the OK to fire on Soviet warships which hadn't first attacked his ship (as that could have ended with a major war), so I don't think that ROE in the first post are realistic.

An interesting variation on this set up could be the East German government trying to bring supplies to Communist enclaves in Poland after a successful Polish uprising. You could set this up as East Germany vs Poland, or East Germany vs Democratic Polish Forces + some kind of covert western assistance. This could get around the problem of the scenario triggering a NATO vs Warsaw Pact conflict, but other people might spot intra-Warsaw Pact factors which render this unrealistic.

[tommo8993]

Maybe a polish war of independence if it were, the game, wargame European escalation has a campaign based on this. Kinda plausible, they had to invade Czechoslovakia and Hungary to keep them inline. A Warsaw spring