Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

[Lowpe]

Jakes don't go out far enough, and Mavis are prone to breaking down. The further north you go the iffier the weather....

My point is the attempt at something here will be SOP especially when the KB is on the other side.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

My point is the attempt at something here will be SOP especially when the KB is on the other side.

My point was that against a properly prepared Japanese player a raid such as this could turn into an early war disaster for the Allied player. In this case the Japanese player was completely unprepared, that won't always be the case.

And I wouldn't be relying on Jake's or Mavis's for search in the early war in areas that matter. I'd set my Nell's and Betty's to search first, then switch them over to attack. If there had been Betty/Nell search committed there's a good chance all the bombardment TF's would have been spotted in time to prepare a much more effective air counterstroke. I'm still pretty leery about risking the Allied CV's for strategic VP's that could easily be gained in 44/45 rather than 42. I get the psychological aspect to Lokasenna's raid, but don't think this type of operation will/should become SOP for Allied players. Unless you are staving off auto-victory and absolutely need the VP's, I just don't see the risk/reward being worth the potential losses. I'm a conservative player though.

[obvert]

Nice move. Well planned and executed.

Pickets out there, as were used by Japan, would have caught you out several days before the strike. I'm stunned at the small number of aircraft attacking your fleet. There are a lot more there training, for sure, and pilots can be swapped in a day.

This will at least mean many japanese players will have to deal with HI defense more effectively in the future.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

My point is the attempt at something here will be SOP especially when the KB is on the other side.

My point was that against a properly prepared Japanese player a raid such as this could turn into an early war disaster for the Allied player. In this case the Japanese player was completely unprepared, that won't always be the case.

I wouldn't say completely, just inadequately prepared. He knew it was a danger zone, but underestimated the forces necessary to protect himself. He also underestimated my strength in the area. It really was more than just the USN CVs.

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
And I wouldn't be relying on Jake's or Mavis's for search in the early war in areas that matter. I'd set my Nell's and Betty's to search first, then switch them over to attack. If there had been Betty/Nell search committed there's a good chance all the bombardment TF's would have been spotted in time to prepare a much more effective air counterstroke. I'm still pretty leery about risking the Allied CV's for strategic VP's that could easily be gained in 44/45 rather than 42. I get the psychological aspect to Lokasenna's raid, but don't think this type of operation will/should become SOP for Allied players. Unless you are staving off auto-victory and absolutely need the VP's, I just don't see the risk/reward being worth the potential losses. I'm a conservative player though.

One of the things factoring into my considerations for this raid were the sheer number of attack aircraft he has committed elsewhere. Just on this past turn, there were at least 50 Netties, 40+ Zeroes, and 15+ Oscars in NW Australia. Combine this with the apparent commitment of another Nell/Betty unit at Rabaul or Moresby, plus a Sally and a Lily unit at Rabaul or Moresby (the 3 of them were used to bomb Horn Island), and Mavis sightings in the South Pacific... I knew his air assets were spread very thin at home and in the north, just from what I saw elsewhere. And they still are. I intend to conduct my operations accordingly.

It wasn't just the USN CVs, but I weighed the risk and deemed it to be low, while the payoff was large. I knew where KB was, where MKB was, within the past 2 weeks. Granted, the coast of Honshu off Tokyo is only a few days' sail from Truk if the KB goes at full speed, but that's a dangerous use of fuel for 3-4 successive days. Not to mention the Sys/Eng damage buildup.

I did absolutely need the VPs. I probably should have held longer in China, and it's going to cost me Chungking very early as MM is willing to beat the crap out of his divisions to batter down my forts. In his last attack he dropped the forts from 5 to 4, but suffered over 30,000 disabled/destroyed troops. Very expensive for him, but I'm looking at losing Chungking while my VPs are still below 10,000. I would have been past a 3:1 in his favor with the fall of Bataan on May 1 (where he beat up 3 of his other divisions as well in successive attacks for almost a week) without this raid. I'll lose 800 when he takes Chungking, and he'll gain 1600 plus a ton for the troops. Even if I'd traded only 2:1 on this raid, it would still have accomplished its secondary objective of gaining ground in the VP race. 300 strat VPs is a pittance in the long run, but this wasn't about the long run.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Nice move. Well planned and executed.

Pickets out there, as were used by Japan, would have caught you out several days before the strike. I'm stunned at the small number of aircraft attacking your fleet. There are a lot more there training, for sure, and pilots can be swapped in a day.

This will at least mean many japanese players will have to deal with HI defense more effectively in the future.

Thanks [;)].

I know he had at least some pickets out. I tracked one down with 3 DDs from Dutch Harbor, south of the Aleutians. I didn't want him stumbling upon any of my withdrawing escort TFs.

I think he has/had several more out and about, as he mentioned a "tuna boat screen" in that email. That, to me, says he had multiple boats out. I have no idea how many, though.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Jakes don't go out far enough, and Mavis are prone to breaking down. The further north you go the iffier the weather....

My point is the attempt at something here will be SOP especially when the KB is on the other side.

I agree that Jakes aren't sufficient. You can't beat the range on the Mavis, nor its utility in being a seaplane. It's ideal for small island bases. That doesn't really apply to much in the area around the Japan, but they could be based out of Marcus Island, for example... Or the Kuriles.

Early on, it's hard to have enough Nells to take over search duties, but it's definitely something that should be done.

[SqzMyLemon]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to say it wasn't a good operation. You did your homework and it paid off.

I was trying to urge caution about the SOP comment by Lowpe. I fully believe that a Japanese player can protect the Kuriles and Home Islands from just such a raid while still having all the bells and whistles for the early conquests. In this case, as you point out, your opponent was thin at home and vulnerable. That won't always be the case and I caution anyone saying this type of raid will become SOP. Against a prepared Japanese opponent it could be seen as a high risk for little reward type enterprise.

I understand that you pursued the operation based on the game situation. Not everyone will show the due diligence you did and might end up blundering into a disaster. I'm only advising caution to those that think this is something that can be pulled off every game.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to say it wasn't a good operation. You did your homework and it paid off.

I was trying to urge caution about the SOP comment by Lowpe. I fully believe that a Japanese player can protect the Kuriles and Home Islands from just such a raid while still having all the bells and whistles for the early conquests. In this case, as you point out, your opponent was thin at home and vulnerable. That won't always be the case and I caution anyone saying this type of raid will become SOP. Against a prepared Japanese opponent it could be seen as a high risk for little reward type enterprise.

I understand that you pursued the operation based on the game situation. Not everyone will show the due diligence you did and might end up blundering into a disaster. I'm only advising caution to those that think this is something that can be pulled off every game.

No. You're wrong.

This raid will work against all Japanese players. Always. It should be consistently tried. Preferably with valuable Allied forces. Allied carriers should be involved to cover the operation-preferably prior to their upgrades or new airframes. Early 1942 (January?) would be best.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to say it wasn't a good operation. You did your homework and it paid off.

I was trying to urge caution about the SOP comment by Lowpe. I fully believe that a Japanese player can protect the Kuriles and Home Islands from just such a raid while still having all the bells and whistles for the early conquests. In this case, as you point out, your opponent was thin at home and vulnerable. That won't always be the case and I caution anyone saying this type of raid will become SOP. Against a prepared Japanese opponent it could be seen as a high risk for little reward type enterprise.

I understand that you pursued the operation based on the game situation. Not everyone will show the due diligence you did and might end up blundering into a disaster. I'm only advising caution to those that think this is something that can be pulled off every game.

No. You're wrong.

This raid will work against all Japanese players. Always. It should be consistently tried. Preferably with valuable Allied forces. Allied carriers should be involved to cover the operation-preferably prior to their upgrades or new airframes. Early 1942 (January?) would be best.

Aren't you supposed to be sitting in a sauna healing bruises or somethin'? [:D]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to say it wasn't a good operation. You did your homework and it paid off.

I was trying to urge caution about the SOP comment by Lowpe. I fully believe that a Japanese player can protect the Kuriles and Home Islands from just such a raid while still having all the bells and whistles for the early conquests. In this case, as you point out, your opponent was thin at home and vulnerable. That won't always be the case and I caution anyone saying this type of raid will become SOP. Against a prepared Japanese opponent it could be seen as a high risk for little reward type enterprise.

I understand that you pursued the operation based on the game situation. Not everyone will show the due diligence you did and might end up blundering into a disaster. I'm only advising caution to those that think this is something that can be pulled off every game.

No. You're wrong.

This raid will work against all Japanese players. Always. It should be consistently tried. Preferably with valuable Allied forces. Allied carriers should be involved to cover the operation-preferably prior to their upgrades or new airframes. Early 1942 (January?) would be best.

Can't tell if you're serious, heh.

January is the earliest possible sortie date, if you want to use 4 CVs... I still think it's worth an attempt to make this sort of raid in every game to keep your opponent honest above all, but it really has to be before you're launching amphibious operations to avoid the opportunity cost of not having CVs to cover your offensive. If you get detected too soon, you bail. Obviously you don't risk getting detected when you don't know where KB is.

Even getting detected early serves the purpose of keeping your opponent honest in the defense of Japan.


Sure, PB screens could help in providing early warning, but if you're a crafty Allied player you could sink those PBs without letting him know what you're up to... It would require time and planning, and perhaps a bit of luck, but it's possible.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


No. You're wrong.

This raid will work against all Japanese players. Always. It should be consistently tried. Preferably with valuable Allied forces. Allied carriers should be involved to cover the operation-preferably prior to their upgrades or new airframes. Early 1942 (January?) would be best.

Can't tell if you're serious, heh.

He's dead serious! He would LOVE it to see the Allied fleet coming into range of the hundreds of training strike planes in the HI, preferably as he states just when the Allied CVs have poorly trained fighter pilots flying Wildkittens! [:D]

If noticed in time these moves are really dangerous. If he'd decided to really chase as well, he would have started the KB toward the Gulf of Alaska at fist sign of the raid. If it was at Truk as you think, that means you would have potentially been intercepted on the way home, cut off from retreat, and lost those CVs and virtually everything else heading back to the states. My fear would be to get a torpedo from a strike or a sub and be slowed on the way back.

[Lowpe]

Just read some of the recent 1942 AARs there is a lot of aggressive offensive action happening up North in the majority of them, most with the Allies coming out ahead either victory point wise or morale wise.

The raid makes AFB feel good, after getting knocked down in the PI and DEI etc.

Most aren't as large as Lokasenna's and target industry & factories, but still they are happening.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

My point is the attempt at something here will be SOP especially when the KB is on the other side.

My point was that against a properly prepared Japanese player a raid such as this could turn into an early war disaster for the Allied player. In this case the Japanese player was completely unprepared, that won't always be the case.

I wouldn't say completely, just inadequately prepared. He knew it was a danger zone, but underestimated the forces necessary to protect himself. He also underestimated my strength in the area. It really was more than just the USN CVs.

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
And I wouldn't be relying on Jake's or Mavis's for search in the early war in areas that matter. I'd set my Nell's and Betty's to search first, then switch them over to attack. If there had been Betty/Nell search committed there's a good chance all the bombardment TF's would have been spotted in time to prepare a much more effective air counterstroke. I'm still pretty leery about risking the Allied CV's for strategic VP's that could easily be gained in 44/45 rather than 42. I get the psychological aspect to Lokasenna's raid, but don't think this type of operation will/should become SOP for Allied players. Unless you are staving off auto-victory and absolutely need the VP's, I just don't see the risk/reward being worth the potential losses. I'm a conservative player though.

One of the things factoring into my considerations for this raid were the sheer number of attack aircraft he has committed elsewhere. Just on this past turn, there were at least 50 Netties, 40+ Zeroes, and 15+ Oscars in NW Australia. Combine this with the apparent commitment of another Nell/Betty unit at Rabaul or Moresby, plus a Sally and a Lily unit at Rabaul or Moresby (the 3 of them were used to bomb Horn Island), and Mavis sightings in the South Pacific... I knew his air assets were spread very thin at home and in the north, just from what I saw elsewhere. And they still are. I intend to conduct my operations accordingly.

It wasn't just the USN CVs, but I weighed the risk and deemed it to be low, while the payoff was large. I knew where KB was, where MKB was, within the past 2 weeks. Granted, the coast of Honshu off Tokyo is only a few days' sail from Truk if the KB goes at full speed, but that's a dangerous use of fuel for 3-4 successive days. Not to mention the Sys/Eng damage buildup.

I did absolutely need the VPs. I probably should have held longer in China, and it's going to cost me Chungking very early as MM is willing to beat the crap out of his divisions to batter down my forts. In his last attack he dropped the forts from 5 to 4, but suffered over 30,000 disabled/destroyed troops. Very expensive for him, but I'm looking at losing Chungking while my VPs are still below 10,000. I would have been past a 3:1 in his favor with the fall of Bataan on May 1 (where he beat up 3 of his other divisions as well in successive attacks for almost a week) without this raid. I'll lose 800 when he takes Chungking, and he'll gain 1600 plus a ton for the troops. Even if I'd traded only 2:1 on this raid, it would still have accomplished its secondary objective of gaining ground in the VP race. 300 strat VPs is a pittance in the long run, but this wasn't about the long run.

Yet another example where playing the design and not "the journey" leads to exciting, innovative play. Being far behind in VPs can be a motivator and risk modifier.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


No. You're wrong.

This raid will work against all Japanese players. Always. It should be consistently tried. Preferably with valuable Allied forces. Allied carriers should be involved to cover the operation-preferably prior to their upgrades or new airframes. Early 1942 (January?) would be best.

Can't tell if you're serious, heh.

He's dead serious! He would LOVE it to see the Allied fleet coming into range of the hundreds of training strike planes in the HI, preferably as he states just when the Allied CVs have poorly trained fighter pilots flying Wildkittens! [:D]

If noticed in time these moves are really dangerous. If he'd decided to really chase as well, he would have started the KB toward the Gulf of Alaska at fist sign of the raid. If it was at Truk as you think, that means you would have potentially been intercepted on the way home, cut off from retreat, and lost those CVs and virtually everything else heading back to the states. My fear would be to get a torpedo from a strike or a sub and be slowed on the way back.

The pre-war USN carrier fighter pilots are very highly trained, as are the attack pilots. They are a match for trainees in Zeros any day. They just don't have any backstops for some time if lost.

Lokasenna shared a lot of data on Japanese air search that I don't think readers have fully absorbed. He's playing Japan in our game. He knows the Japanese OOB as well as any player here. This was not a shot-in-the-dark operation. It made use of intel freely available in the game, coupled with a forum culture whereby most Japan players assume the HI are safe in 1942 and thus they can go off foraying anywhere they like as USN carriers, those tender snowflakes, must not be risked ever, ever, ever. Ain't so.

As for the KB charging forth, it's not the starship Enterprise. I've played Loka in these waters for seven months of game time now, and it's a BIG piece of blue. Eight-hex TBs are nice, but this is a vast area to retreat through. I've gone as far as Nome in our game to hide my ships. Is the KB willing to go to Nome? The USN can retreat toward Pearl, Dutch, Seattle between Pearl and Dutch. Or . . . Nome. Mavis has a long range, but it's out of range in a day on a full-speed retreat if the TF is properly speed-balanced. Yeah, one gets a torpedo it slows down. Cut it loose and save the other three. But first it has to get a torpedo, and that means staffing the north with torpedo planes and torpedo HQ, or driving the KB into a sub net full of S-boats with working fish. And that Japan response costs elsewhere. Which is sort of the point.

This was a clear, out and out Allied win. Look at the aircraft exchange rate. Look at strat VPs, which never get canceled. Look at his supply costs to repair industry. Look at his ship losses, especially precious DDs. Not even close to a draw.

If Japan players prepare for this in future, well good. They should. No less than Allied players ought to have 6-8 fighter units over Seattle in 1942.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


No. You're wrong.

This raid will work against all Japanese players. Always. It should be consistently tried. Preferably with valuable Allied forces. Allied carriers should be involved to cover the operation-preferably prior to their upgrades or new airframes. Early 1942 (January?) would be best.

Can't tell if you're serious, heh.

He's dead serious! He would LOVE it to see the Allied fleet coming into range of the hundreds of training strike planes in the HI, preferably as he states just when the Allied CVs have poorly trained fighter pilots flying Wildkittens! [:D]

If noticed in time these moves are really dangerous. If he'd decided to really chase as well, he would have started the KB toward the Gulf of Alaska at fist sign of the raid. If it was at Truk as you think, that means you would have potentially been intercepted on the way home, cut off from retreat, and lost those CVs and virtually everything else heading back to the states. My fear would be to get a torpedo from a strike or a sub and be slowed on the way back.

I disagree about KB being able to catch. I knew my optimal retreat path well before I went in. I counted the hexes from Truk. KB can go 16 or 18 hexes at full speed, but they don't have very large fuel tanks... Going north of the Aleutians basically puts the USN beyond the range of full speed ahead from Truk. Without full speed, it's unlikely that the KB would move at mission for 2 phases in the middle of the ocean, with no threats around, so it's unlikely he'd be able to catch. At this point, I'm assuming he gave up on getting to me already, which is the smart decision in my opinion. I'm expecting KB to show up elsewhere sometime soon. I was prepared to go to Nome. I knew Bullwinkle was using Nome, and I wasn't willing to chase him there. I actually would have welcomed a fight within Umnak's bubble - I've got it at level 6 by now, with plenty of Av. Supp. and planes, and more within flying distance (Anchorage, Kodiak, etc.). I think I could fight him to a tactical draw/strategic Allied victory there - rough fighter parity on the CVs (116 on mine vs. 108 in his organic groups), lots of B-17s at Umnak to help wear down KB's CAP without losing lots of planes in the process, lots of surface assets in the area, etc. And it's not a very long haul to Prince Rupert/Seattle for repairs.

Sadly, I was unprepared in terms of submarines. I did not have very many S-boats there - only 2. The rest were fleet boats, due to their higher endurance and the longer-term nature of their mission of sniffing out naval search. I suspect now that I'm not sniffing it out because it's still inadequate. There's no reason he shouldn't be detecting me just one hex outside of Shimushiri or Paramushiro, or two hexes out of Etorofu, with single-hex patrol zones. He should have sighted me at some point over the 6 weeks they've been sitting there.



I did use one day of full speed on my retreat - the first day after the strikes concluded. 16 hexes is a long ways for the Mavis to go to catch up, especially when I was already a few hexes out. It definitely puts you beyond Jake range, which is 10 at best.

[obvert]

This is a great move, don't' get me wrong. Well researched and played. Still, it works because the Japanese player is unprepared for it. Of course it may lead to others being more prepared. Will I try it against GJ, who has seen and read all of this and has undoubtedly allocated forces there, possibly even begun to plan for a retaliation to such a move, and undoubtedly has great search and pickets? We'll have to see! [:D]

What you're both neglecting is that the KB could have started from Truk before the op was even finished. "At first sighting ... ." It wouldn't have gone for the Aleutians, but farther West, to cut the retreat, then back. Maybe Allied bases are sufficient to protect against a KB strike. I'm not aware other than that Umnak is a level 6. Your B-17s might not even fly, though, and the possibility is there to catch the US CVs. In 42 i'd still give the KB an advantage. Sorry.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is a great move, don't' get me wrong. Well researched and played. Still, it works because the Japanese player is unprepared for it. Of course it may lead to others being more prepared. Will I try it against GJ, who has seen and read all of this and has undoubtedly allocated forces there, possibly even begun to plan for a retaliation to such a move, and undoubtedly has great search and pickets? We'll have to see! [:D]

What you're both neglecting is that the KB could have started from Truk before the op was even finished. "At first sighting ... ." It wouldn't have gone for the Aleutians, but farther West, to cut the retreat, then back. Maybe Allied bases are sufficient to protect against a KB strike. I'm not aware other than that Umnak is a level 6. Your B-17s might not even fly, though, and the possibility is there to catch the US CVs. In 42 i'd still give the KB an advantage. Sorry.

I get what you're saying. I just know that KB was off Townsville on April 5. Heavy radio traffic at Truk plus the availability of the TF 1 designation on April 19 is simply an educated guess that they put in there at that time, but I think it's a good one (~40 hexes from their raiding position on Townsville). And my instinct says it's correct. I can't empirically prove that's where KB was, but I "know" they were there. It's the right timing for them to replenish after a month of roaming about the South Pacific, and Truk is the nearest port capable of replenishing KB as well as the likeliest.


KB has the advantage, yes, but my point about fighting near Umnak is that they would get bloodied, which is a strategic win for the Allies. It's true that maybe my B-17s wouldn't have flown, or maybe the P-38s wouldn't escort (a waste of their talents, I know, but I'd have used them), or maybe the P-40s wouldn't escort, or maybe the Vindicators and Marauders and Mitchells wouldn't fly either. In the hypothetical, I would be banking on enough of them to fly.

There's no way he could have beaten me to Umnak from Truk. I only had 34 hexes to go to pass the Medny Island/Attu Island transit point. Reasonable striking range to there is 60+ hexes from Truk. Yes, he could run straight for my exit point at Dutch Harbor/Umnak, trying to cut me off from the West Coast, but that's even farther - 90 or so hexes for a reasonable striking point 7 hexes SE of Dutch Harbor. By contrast, the route I took was 63 hexes to reach Cold Bay. That's 7-8 days of sailing for me and over 10 for him. And it isn't much, but I have Catalinas searching from Midway on westerly arcs (all of them). Part of the reason I sent my damaged ships south of the Aleutians is because I wanted early warning in case he was coming - time for my CVs to bail out of sight to the north if necessary.

For reference, KB has a full speed one-way range of about 50 hexes. There's just no way he could have caught me, without running out of fuel or having a miraculous AO fleet in the middle of the North Pacific.


Interestingly, one of my TFs transiting east of Canton Island reported being sighted by a Dive Bomber this past turn (May 4). Usually when sighted by Jakes, it says sighted by Japanese Recon or Patrol or Float Plane or sometimes Torpedo Bomber. It's not as rock solid as sighting a D3A1, but it could be a sniff of KB, if they're trying to intercept me if I head back to Pearl Harbor. However, no air strikes on the TF (DL 7/7) other than those from Canton, which all missed. So I'd say probably not KB.

[Lowpe]

Goodness, I hesitate to think what the damage to the ships would be after a full speed run for so long. Not to mention arriving, and then fighting where the Yankees have land based air available and you are low on fuel.

Better to use the KB aggressively somewhere else, since you know the Allied Carriers are occupied there, or just stay in Truk (if that is where they where). I know, but I ain't telling. [;)]

War is dangerous, and Lokasenna took a calculated risk and got a solid win.

[Lokasenna]

Well, everything is safely away. All forces except BB Colorado and DD Fanning have returned to Prince Rupert. Colorado is a couple of days out, and Fanning is at Dutch Harbor temporarily.

Have landed at Amchitka on May 9. On May 10, landings will go in at Adak. I intend to collect the LCU VPs for an infantry regiment (the 80th), a naval guard unit, and a JNAF unit. He doesn't appear to be defending them at all. I had a radio transmissions sniff at 155,68 on May 9, but nothing has appeared in the Catalina search arcs from Dutch Harbor. Regardless, I'm running north after the first day of landings at Adak in case it's the KB sailing blind...the timing is just about right for this location. I should get everything ashore in one day of landing, anyway.


CVL Hermes was sunk 1 hex NW of Perth by an I-boat [:(]. Worked so hard to save her.


Also, I forgot that a significant portion of my Chinese units at Chungking were in Reserve mode. Oops! Has been rectified. I intended it as protection from his bombardments, and it turned into an assault trap but I think I may have missed the boat on it. He dropped the forts to level 3 in his last assault. This past turn, his AV was 4668 to my 6310. Hopefully my now-Combat-mode Corps can inflict another 30k+ casualties on his forces.

For the record, I think he is making a strategic mistake by wrecking his army against Chungking. He did the same thing at Bataan with 3 Divisions on the attack - by the time the base fell, the raw AV for the 3 Divisions was under 700. The 21st and 16th were heavily disrupted and may have needed a lot of replacements. As far as I understand the system, repairing disabled devices does not have the potential to lower the XP of a unit, however taking replacements does. By grinding his forces down, not only is he costing himself supply to replace rather than repair devices, but he could be suffering hits to the XP level of his divisions - many of which should be good ones. This could end up biting him in the behind later.

And all of those supplies... Each squad replaced costs 12, IIRC.

[Lokasenna]

Am formulating my next move(s). It appears that I took too much out of China and Chungking is going to fall rather quickly now, though part of that is that MM is beating the crap out of the IJA to do it. Yes, he's reducing the forts, but he's taken 30k+ casualties in the last few attacks.

My ABDA troops in NW Australia have escaped Katherine to the east, and will attempt a breakout to the south and/or southeast while reinforcements come up from Alice Springs. It occurs to me as I write this that I probably bungled the first stage of the withdrawal. Once he kills the token units at Katherine this turn, he'll be able to move into my currently targeted hex before I can get there. I may be looking at a longer slog back towards Cloncurry and Normanton, which is fine - I just don't want him getting the VPs for these guys. The root cause of my VP troubles is basically that I tried to defend too far forward, and too early. I could have withdrawn everything to Australia instead of losing bits at Soerabaja, Koepang, etc.

Here's the info screen as of 5/24/1942. VP Ratio is around 2.65:1. If Chungking were to fall today, it would be around 3.3:1 minus a little to account for his losses (~28500:~8600). I have some building to do at Noumea and Canberra still, as well as Socotra, Diego Garcia, and Anchorage. But basically...assuming he builds Chungking to the max along with Chengtu, I'm looking at roughly 30800 : 9200. In a couple of posts I'll be looking at how best I can get some more VPs before 1943.