Alternative History: The Great War that didn't happen

[markb50k]

ok, well from your guys feedback and my own preferences, I think I am determining some guidelines for how I do the setup.

1. I will follow the setup order of the original game. In other words, France sets up before Germany, so Germany will set up strategically already knowing how France is set up. Its kinda hard to do that with all sides moving during these 'pre-war' impulses but I will follow that as a guideline.

USA
USSR
Italy
China
CW
France
Japan
Germany

2. Major powers can only move to hexes that they control. i.e. no US units in France. But this does allow CW to preposition folks in their possessions. At this point, this does include align countries.

3. Other rules/guidelines:
- Germany can only preposition in Europe.
- Italy can preposition anywhere they control
- US can only preposition in Phillipines or Western Hemisphere
- CW can preposition anywhere they control, but only UK forces
- France can preposition to any of its 1939 possessions
- USSR can preposition within their home country and aligned minors
- Japan can preposition within anywhere they control, but only Japanese forces
- minor nations can only preposition within their own country

We'll see how that works.

I'll start posting strategy options per country, in setup order. First up USA

[markb50k]

UNITED STATES

Looked over the map and determined that it is vital to establish a credible defense in the Philippines, and strategic islands throughout the Pacific.

The other major area of concern is the only American foothold in South America: Venezuela. The US knows the Axis cannot reinforce South America, so although it will take some time to neutralize the Axis production base in Brazil/Argentina, what forces they have there are likely all that could possibly be there.

So overall strategy for the US will be to get the following units to the following locations. I am pretty sure the US can make all these naval moves by war start (if not, I may have to start over and start moving things around earlier in the game):

Mexico
2-4 CAV Mexico
2-3 MIL Mexico

Philippines
2-2 TERR Manila
2-3 INF DIV
6-3 MIL New York

Pearl Harbor
4-3-2 Nimitz
5-3 MIL Los Angeles
main fleet

Dutch Harbor
3-2 MIL Mexico
small fleet

Panama
2-4 CAV Panama (ready to invade Colombia)
3-2 MIL Panama

Venezuela
2-2 MIL Venezuela
2-3 MIL New Orleans
3-2 MIL Washington
3-3 MIL Atlanta

Pago Pago
4-3 MIL Chicago

Midway
4-3 INF Mexico

South American Invasion (prepositioned in US ports)
5-4-3 MacArthur
5-4 MOT Mexico
8-5 MOT
1-5 ENG
3-4 ART
3-4 AT
6-4 MAR
invasion fleet

[markb50k]

SOVIET UNION

The Soviets are in a bit of a pickle here with all borders threatened by the Axis. After building out there MILs and getting their reserves on the ground, they at least have some numbers. Also, Poland will face the brunt of the initial Axis attack and with no surprise impulse, may even take some of the Germans with them.

I wont go into such detail with the Axis powers, as part of the reason I am writing this down is so I have an in-place strategy for the Allies so that the Axis can plan off of that since they have last setup.
Leningrad
5-1 GARR
5-1 GARR

Murmansk
5-3 INF
4-3 MIL

Vladivostok area
3 CAV corps
1 CAV div
1 MIL

Far East/Irkutsk
1 MIL
1 CAV Mongolia

Turkmenistan (guarding interior from Persia
4-3 MIL
4-4 MTN Afghanistan

Caucasus (Tiflis/Baku) guarding against Turkey
5-3 MIL
5-3 MIL
6-3 INF
3-5 CAV
5-3 INF

Sevastapol/Black Sea ports
2-2 MIL
3-2 MIL
3-3 MIL

Bessarabia/Ukraine defense
1-3 ENG
2-3 AT
2-3 MIL
2-5 CAV
4-1 GARR
4-2 ARTY
4-2 MIL
4-3 INF
5-2-2 HQ
5-2 MIL
6-2 MIL
6-6 MECH

Baltics/Minsk defense (will move into Poland and try to throw a wrench in German attack)
1-4 DIV
2-2 MIL
2-3 AA
3-2 ARTY
3-3 MIL
4-2 MIL
5-4 Siberian
5-4 Siberian
6-3 MIL
6-3 INF
6-4 Siberian
7-2 MIL
7-4 INF
7-4 Siberian
7-6 MECH
8-5-4 HQ

This force will be the one most likely to do counterattacks early on.

[markb50k]

CHINA

Chinas defense is a bit more aggressive since, with the US in the war, and the USSR too, they are assuming Japan can't make an all-out strategy in China.

Take a look at the general setup here. A couple of units in the rear are making their way forward but this is pretty much how it will end up. IGNORE Japanese setup as that hasn't been looked at will likely change greatly based on the Chinese defense.

Northern China

[markb50k]

CHINA

Southern Setup

[Ingtar]

If China is quiet for two years and there is no war, rather than reinforcing the Pacific, the US is more likely to continue mothballing ships and reducing forces to continue to fight the Great Depression. That was the thinking at the time, at least.

[markb50k]

Good point. My first answer would be that we all accept that this is a 'what-if' scenario just being done for the fun of it.

I am assuming that the war in China had kept going during whatever time period I am simulating having past, it just was mired in stalemate.

Keep in mind, that I would have preferred having this scenario start in Sept/Oct 1939, and the ONLY reason I am waiting until 1941 is a game-mechanic due to the US production going up so quickly too fast. So even though the date on the game would show 1941, I am considering only a month or two passing from the historical start date and playing it as such.

[markb50k]

FYI, since I am still in setup I am probably going to start over before I get too far, and just artificially limit US production.

The way I am currently going, US production will be at

1941: 1.25
1942: 1.50
1943: 1.75


If I artificially limit the US's BPs, throwing away the extra, and start the game as soon as I can get everything setup, instead of arbitrarily waiting until 1941, I can implement a house-rule to US production, limiting the US to a .50 instead of 1.25 in 1940.

That would start the war probably only 2 or 3 turns later than normal. I'm going to give that a shot. Strategies above would still be valid.

[WarHunter]

Looks like you have quite the Alternate ww2 scenario going on.

What do you expect the outcome to be as its played out? Any goals in particular for specific nations?

[markb50k]

I'm sure some of the experienced players around here already have thoughts on how this war will go, but I still haven't finished a full game of MWIF, or WIF for that matter, so honestly I have no idea. I just wanted to see new strategies play out with countries that usually don't get a lot of action.

I really hope it ends up making the game MORE fun, not less, but balance is a pretty touchy thing and I hope I haven't tipped things too far in any side's direction. I don't think I have, but bringing in the US so early is the big factor.

I think overall, though, that Japan and Russia are in more trouble than they normally are, and CW is a more likely target for invasion with so many European powers (especially with TRS assets) are aligned against them.

[Courtenay]

ORIGINAL: Ingtar

If China is quiet for two years and there is no war, rather than reinforcing the Pacific, the US is more likely to continue mothballing ships and reducing forces to continue to fight the Great Depression. That was the thinking at the time, at least.

Excuse me? Please examine the Naval Expansion act of 1938 (passed 17 May, 1938), and the Naval Air and Submarine Base Bil (passed 25 March, 1939). The US was committed to making major naval expansions well before the start of WW II.

[Ingtar]

The Acts passed in 1938 and 1939 were a response to the growing tension in Europe. Had something short-circuited that, leading to what the Isolationists would see as an opportunity, it would have been quickly reverted. FDR spent much of the prewar years fighting the isolationist sentiment. If they had "success" to point to, they would have the upper hand.

But that is a cool thing about alternate history; either one of us could be correct.

[Courtenay]

However, we are given that the "split" in this scenario did not occur until August of '39, so that appropriation bills that had been passed before that date would have been unaffected; these were the bills that authorized almost all construction through 1940, and much of the 1941 construction.

Also, in this history, there is a massive violation of the Monroe doctrine, which was the one constant of American foreign policy. Remember, the Zimmerman telegram got the US into WW I, and that was just a suggestion from German to Mexico to ally against the US. In this scenario, somehow there is coalition against the US in South America, which would have raised great alarm in the US.

[Centuur]

True, but before WW II there were countries in South America with large groups which supported the Germans. Especially in countries as Chili, Argentina, Bolivia, Paraquay, Uruguay and Brazil. And there is also the Spanish question to be taken into account. What would have been the effect of the Spanish to join the German side? I think it would be huge in the Spanish speaking areas of South America, especially if the US would have adopted an Isolationist policy, which was quite feasable. My impression is that the longer the war had been postponed, the more difficult it would have been for the US to go to war.

The Monroe doctrine clashes with the Isolationist policies. If an Isolationist would have become the US foreign secretary, even that doctrine would have become less important to the far away nations of South America.

[markb50k]

OK, I went back to the beginning and was able to get all the stuff setup how I wanted it in only 4 turns. So, the war will start with the May/Jun 1940 turn.

At this point, the following has happened generally:
- all minor countries have been aligned to a major power as specified above. I will show their setups in the next set of posts.
- all major powers have built all Militias (MIL), Territorials (TERR), and all SYNTH plants are in the production pipeline.
- all reserves have been called out and are in position.
- as a game balance mechanism, I have allowed Germany to build 1 more Offensive during the interim. They will start with 2 with an additional in production.
- US is currently at war with everyone except Germany, in order to hold back the US production multiple. On the first Axis impulse, they will declare war on the USA.
- Axis continues to have a +2 initiative bonus, and I will make sure Axis goes first.

I will now go through each major power and show their setup...

[markb50k]

UNITED STATES
The US is primarily setup to place a defensive perimeter in the Pacific, and to establish an offensive capability in South America.

Philippines has been reinforced:

[markb50k]

The US has garrison at other strategic locations in the Pacific as well:
- Nimitz HQ and a MIL in Pearl Harbor
- MIL at Midway
- Mexican INF at Pago Pago
- Mexican CAV at Dutch Harbor, along with 4 cruisers

In South America, 3 US Militias have taken up defensive positions in Venezuela.

Here is an overall view of Central/South America US positions.

[markb50k]

Navy wise, the fleet carriers are in Pearl Harbor, but the Eastern US fleet is preparing to go to Brazil first impulse they can.

Along the US Atlantic coast, an invasion force is arrayed:
- MacArthur HQ
- 6-4 MAR
- 5-4 MOT (Mexico)
- 8-5 MOT (broken down)
- 3 support DIVs (ENG, ARTY, AT)

On first attack, US will be able to hit with the Marines, 1 DIV, and the HQ, with the rest follow-on forces...

[markb50k]

SOVIET UNION

Surrounded on all sides, the Soviet had to make hard choices to protect what they can as best they can, but there just isn't enough troops to go around. Any delays to the Axis will help the Soviets immensely, and Poland is still there as a buffer.

Lets start on the peripheries. In the Far East, against weaker Japanese units, the Soviet put up a token defense at Vladivostok. They can't protect all the resource hexes and spreading out to protect all the cities on the rail line would be ineffective so they concentrate at Vladivostok and the resource hex adjacent. Hopefully they can hold out a while here.

[markb50k]

Soviet forces protecting the resource hex and the rest of the rail line: