Oshawott (Russia) vs. Stef78 (Axis)

[timmyab]

A couple of things that interest me.
Have you got any strategic goals for the Odessa and Crimea breakouts? Also what is the objective of the offensive South of Lake Ilman?

[morvael]

I'm afraid Odessa might be crushed any time by the Axis player (he simply needs to send one German corps there). Maybe he just wants more units in the "pocket", thus tries to appear weak for now, as if barely containing you. And with small number of units, the bridgehead is not threatening to him. I would just keep enough troops to control the city (3 divs) and return the rest to where they will be sorely needed.

[Oshawott]

A couple of things that interest me.
Have you got any strategic goals for the Odessa and Crimea breakouts? Also what is the objective of the offensive South of Lake Ilman?

Goals for Crimea

1. Tie down as many Axis troops as possible
2. Establish connection with main front
3. One army pushes Northwest to get behind the German lines
4. One army pushes West to connect with troops at Odessa

Goals for Odessa

1. Tie down as many Axis troops as possible
2. Land enough troops (2 armies) to start a major offensive in eastern (Crimea) and southwestern direction (Romania)
3. Try to show that it is a bad idea not to take Odessa in 41.

Odessa is interesting and risky. The main problem is that there are limited retreat paths so I might have to accept that a number of my divisions get routed. Come March I will have to be able to extract most of my troops otherwise they will be just cannon fodder. I will, however, keep a garrison in Odessa until he conquers it.

[Oshawott]

Maybe he just wants more units in the "pocket", thus tries to appear weak for now, as if barely containing you.

I thought about that. He could let me land troops and then start a massive bombing campaign to destroy the port. On the other hand it is a level 15 port and it would take forever to bring it down below level 1. I have never tried that. Not sure if it is actually possible.

I'm not sure if three German divisions are enough to contain Odessa. I guess it might work if they are in level 3 forts. Romanian divisions and German regiments are definitely not enough.

Odessa itself is safe during blizzard because it is still a level 4 fort. Overall it is a very good distraction and I have troops to spare and he doesn't.

[Oshawott]

Also what is the objective of the offensive South of Lake Ilman?

The objective here is to stretch his front so bad that it rips. I am pushing west towards Pskov and northwest towards Leningrad. The ultimate goal is to unhinge his defenses in front of Leningrad and to relieve the garrison in the city.

[timmyab]

Very interesting thank you. I think I would prioritize the Pskov-Novgorod area if I was your opponent. Get the mountain divisions up there.
I had the problem with not taking Odessa in one of my games once, but it ended before the first winter. I'd kind of decided to just let the garrison break out and slow it down as much as possible throughout the winter.

[Oshawott]

Very interesting thank you. I think I would prioritize the Pskov-Novgorod area if I was your opponent.

He has a strong defense in this area. Personally, I would have used the mountain divisions first to conquer Leningrad during blizzard and be done with that. But that is easier said then done and hindsight is 20/20. With Odessa and Crimea opening up the Germans are really stretched. STEF78 is an excellent defender. He has given me a lot of ideas for my next Axis game.

[Oshawott]

T29 - North

Fortress Leningrad is still holding and even withstands an attack. I continue to resupply. He has to reinforce the front at Novgorod and successfully counterattacks. But this means he has to weaken other sectors.

[Oshawott]

T29 - Center

He breaks the encirclement of 183rd and 256th division again so I decide to attack these divisions this turn. They get pushed back with huge losses as you can see from the battle report. I assume this has to do with the fact that the units were encircled for 2 turns. Otherwise I keep pushing mostly with 16th and 13th army.

[Oshawott]

T29 - Southwest

Orel and Kursk are the main targets here. Lots of reserve activations in this sector.

[Flaviusx]

Have mixed feelings about this Crimea/Odessa business, it's risking a big bag once the weather clears up. Yet in doing so it would also eat up a lot of time for the Axis and burn through the always tricky mud/clear transition period in May/June without risking anything important. Even if the Germans clear the whole area and wipe out the local Front going into July that still leaves the Red Army in excellent position. So on balance maybe it's worth the trouble. I'd rather take my lumps here than in the east Ukraine.

The real danger is that the main forces advancing towards the Dnepr are exposing themselves to an Axis drive SE to the Sea of Azov in conjunction with such a clearing operation. That would open up the south entirely and the front tends to widen as you go west. Trying to join all this stuff together is high risk, higher than I care for. A big panzer ball could wreck the whole thing.

[Oshawott]

T29 - South

No counterattacks in the south. I make good progress. The main goal is still to recapture Kharkov, to reach the Dnepr and to connect the main front with the Crimea.

[Oshawott]

T29 - Crimea and Odessa

I finally make some headway at the Crimea. He just doesn't have the forces to cover everything. I attack out of Odessa and try to enlarge the bridgehead. One important attack fails.

[Oshawott]

T29 - Battles

List of battles.

[Oshawott]

T29 - Guards

Nice number of new guard units.

[Oshawott]

T29 - Data

And the production and losses figures for this turn.

[Oshawott]

Have mixed feelings about this Crimea/Odessa business, it's risking a big bag once the weather clears up. Yet in doing so it would also eat up a lot of time for the Axis and burn through the always tricky mud/clear transition period in May/June without risking anything important. Even if the Germans clear the whole area and wipe out the local Front going into July that still leaves the Red Army in excellent position. So on balance maybe it's worth the trouble. I'd rather take my lumps here than in the east Ukraine.

The real danger is that the main forces advancing towards the Dnepr are exposing themselves to an Axis drive SE to the Sea of Azov in conjunction with such a clearing operation. That would open up the south entirely and the front tends to widen as you go west. Trying to join all this stuff together is high risk, higher than I care for. A big panzer ball could wreck the whole thing.

I agree with your assessment. Odessa is risky and I have to think about an extraction plan. But he is stretched really thin now because I am knocking on every door. The danger of encirclement in the south is very high once the weather turns. I have seen what happened to Tarhunnas and will try to avoid the same mistake. I have also seen what happened to Bobo. If I have to give up my gains so be it. His mobile forces are spread all over the map right now. He will have to use the mud/clear transition period to reorganize his army and get his infantry morale up. Without decent infantry he is doomed.

Also, I think he has a long term view of this game. He might even be thinking about a 43 victory. We are playing with VC260.

[Ketza]

As long as you hold the port your units will rout out. Keep pressing him. It was a huge mistake for him not to clear Odessa out.

[Flaviusx]

ORIGINAL: Oshawott

Have mixed feelings about this Crimea/Odessa business, it's risking a big bag once the weather clears up. Yet in doing so it would also eat up a lot of time for the Axis and burn through the always tricky mud/clear transition period in May/June without risking anything important. Even if the Germans clear the whole area and wipe out the local Front going into July that still leaves the Red Army in excellent position. So on balance maybe it's worth the trouble. I'd rather take my lumps here than in the east Ukraine.

The real danger is that the main forces advancing towards the Dnepr are exposing themselves to an Axis drive SE to the Sea of Azov in conjunction with such a clearing operation. That would open up the south entirely and the front tends to widen as you go west. Trying to join all this stuff together is high risk, higher than I care for. A big panzer ball could wreck the whole thing.

I agree with your assessment. Odessa is risky and I have to think about an extraction plan. But he is stretched really thin now because I am knocking on every door. The danger of encirclement in the south is very high once the weather turns. I have seen what happened to Tarhunnas and will try to avoid the same mistake. I have also seen what happened to Bobo. If I have to give up my gains so be it. His mobile forces are spread all over the map right now. He will have to use the mud/clear transition period to reorganize his army and get his infantry morale up. Without decent infantry he is doomed.

Also, I think he has a long term view of this game. He might even be thinking about a 43 victory. We are playing with VC260.

It's not so much Odessa that's the problem, or even the Crimea. It's your linking goal. Odessa and the Crimea are complete throwaways and excellent distractions in of themselves. They suck away time and resources from the German away from the main front just to clean up his rear.

But linking this to your main Ukrainian Fronts is what troubles me. I don't think you should press their advance that far. Because then it's no longer a question of loosing Odessa or Sevastapol. It's that plus your entire southern position, which will be spread out trying to hold on to a longer front. The Dnepr is awkwardly placed down here too, with the bend, and can just as easily hurt your cause as help you.

Better imo to stop well short of that and deny the Axis an opportunity to mount a combined operation in AGS that takes in not only the mess in the rear, but the main front itself -- a drive to the Sea of Azov taking in all of it, and blowing the south wide open. By not linking up you force him to disperse his efforts in two or even three directions, which don't really support each other. I like the idea of taking, say, Karkhov, but the Dnepr bend is asking for trouble. It's a classic backhand blow situation. Yeah, his panzers are spread out now but he's got plenty of time to correct that and the way the weather flips back and forth in late spring 42 makes it hard for the Soviet to react.

[Oshawott]

As long as you hold the port your units will rout out. Keep pressing him. It was a huge mistake for him not to clear Odessa out.

Yes, Odessa is low risk and high gain during blizzard. He is putting a lot of resources in this sector and therefore his southern front has pretty much collapsed. I am basically fighting nothing but Romanians and Italians south of Zaporozhye.

As soon as blizzard stops Odessa will be a problem. It is still a level 4 fort but it will not withstand a serious attack.

I will post another turn tomorrow.