Return of the Sheep! - JocMeister(A) vs. MrKane(J)

[JocMeister]

While he hasn´t crossed the LOD before that I know of sometime has to be the first right? [:D]

He do like India and has attacked that way at least 2 times that I know of. So he has accumulated a lot of knowledge on that front. I seem to recall he mentioned to GJ that he got a lot of stuff from his India en devour. So the logical way is for him to go would be there. But then again since we all think to believe India will be hes target he might just as well throw a curve ball and go OZ. Or why not Alaska?

I´m going to throw a lot of stuff into Sydney, Melbourne and Bombay. Thats for sure. And I need to play China as well as it can be played.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]December 10th - 41 [/font]
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Landings continue at Mersing. Havn´t gotten the turn so this is based on the replay and CR.

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Malaya
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The shattered allied AF has withdrawn and landings continue unopposed during the day. In the afternoon the base falls to crushing Japanese superiority.

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Ground combat at Mersing (51,82)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 22860 troops, 213 guns, 141 vehicles, Assault Value = 1123

Defending force 538 troops, 10 guns, 13 vehicles, Assault Value = 2

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 0

Japanese adjusted assault: 879

Allied adjusted defense: 1

Japanese assault odds: 879 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Mersing !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
64 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
308 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 55 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 11 (11 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 17 (17 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 2

Assaulting units:
114th Infantry Regiment
23rd Ind Engineer Regiment
55th Infantry Regiment
12th Engineer Regiment
5th Division
15th Ind Engineer Regiment
1st Tank Regiment <-- These guys will cut the rail in 3 days(?). How much can I get into Singers before that.
56th Infantry Regiment
4th Ind Engineer Regiment
41st Infantry Regiment
302nd Ship Eng Coy
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
202nd Ship Eng Coy
53rd Const Co
5th Field Construction Battalion
54th Const Co
25th Army
55th Const Co
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
34th Field AA Battalion
21st JAAF AF Bn
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
20th AA Regiment
84th JAAF AF Bn
5th JAAF AF Coy

Defending units:
30 Battery/3 HAA
113th RAF Adv Base Force

Japanese sweep empty air over Georgetown and Singers.

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Philippines
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There are 4 CA TFs operating around Luzon. One of the TFs bump into Tracian and sinks her. Thanet and Scout exchange fire with Chokai and 3 DDs. Thanet is promply sunk and Scout is sunk later in the day by Mogami, Mikuna, Suzuya and Kumano.

Day Time Surface Combat, near Jesselton at 66,81, Range 19,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Chokai
DD Asagiri, Shell hits 4, heavy fires
DD Sagiri
DD Yugiri, Shell hits 3

Allied Ships
DD Scout, Shell hits 4, on fire
DD Thanet, Shell hits 20, and is sunk

Again Boise and Houston fail to merge and have two separate battles with a TF consisting of Haguro and 3 DDs. Only glancing blows are dealt but I suspect both Boise and Houston are now out of ammo. Its a shame. Had they merged as ordered I´m confident we could have wrecked the Haguro.

CA Maya is on station in the PI archipelago hunting sheep fleeing from Manila. This turn she sinks the xAK James Lykes, AO Trinity, AV Langley and AS Holland.

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Java
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Not sure what happened here. These ships should be well clear.

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Afternoon Air attack on Soerabaja , at 56,104

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 33 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 18
B5N2 Kate x 72
D3A1 Val x 50

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
TK Talang Akar, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
TK Basilea, Bomb hits 1
CMc Soemenep, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
TK Angelina
TK Paula
xAP Kedah, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
AGP Eridanus, Bomb hits 1, on fire
AVP Fazant
TK Britannia, Bomb hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAP Van Rees, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
xAP Van Riebeek, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
AVP Pollux, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
AR Castor, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
AMc Ceram, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
xAP Camphuys, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
xAP Bontekoe, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires

Its too quiet. Whats he up to?

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]December 11th - 41 [/font]
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Two big scares today

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Malaya
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Just a lone 18 plane Zero sweep over Singers. The KXII sinks a small mine layer! [&o]

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ASW attack near Mersing at 51,82

Japanese Ships
CM Hatsutaka, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
AK Hirokawa Maru
xAP Naminoue Maru
xAK Kokai Maru
xAK Naruto Maru
xAK Kogyo Maru
xAK Aobasan Maru
xAKL Yoshinogawa Maru
PB Chosa Maru

Allied Ships
SS KXII

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Java
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More action here as the KB slots in between Java and Borneo. A big strike take out loads of smaller ships hit earlier. Some good allied news as well. Yesterday I got a fix on the KB oilers. I had 2 subs close enough to try and intercept and the KXVIII is successful. Heavy damage and fuel cargo burning should mean the oiler is in trouble.

Sub attack near Madjene at 65,104

Japanese Ships
AO Toei Maru, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS KXVIII

The I-164 attacks and sinks two AMC fleeing Singers.

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CENTPAC
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I nearly choke as the I-20 attack the Ent not once but twice. Jesus.

Sub attack near Maloelap at 149,116

Japanese Ships
SS I-20

Allied Ships
CV Enterprise
CA Salt Lake City
DD Gridley
DD Balch
DD Fanning
DD Ellet
DD Benham

SS I-20 launches 8 torpedoes at CV Enterprise [X(]

Sub attack near Maloelap at 149,116

Japanese Ships
SS I-20

Allied Ships
CV Enterprise
CA Salt Lake City
DD Gridley
DD Balch
DD Fanning
DD Ellet
DD Benham

SS I-20 launches 6 torpedoes at CV Enterprise [X(] x2

So now he knows I´m hanging around outside the Marshalls. This alone might make him abandon any grabs in the Gilberts. I´ll head back towards Christmas Islands where tankers are en route.

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Philippines
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The Japanese CAs continue to work through the sheep herd fleeing Manila. AS Otus and xAK Cape Fairweather are sunk.

Still too quiet! Whats he doing! Where are the invasions. Where is the airforce?

[ny59giants]

Mr Kane will not attack just for the sake of doing something.

Remember, he needs time to convert some of his xAKs from cargo space to troop space.

[Aurorus]

There seems to be a pattern in play in many of the AARs I´ve looked at on the forums. Japanese players are increasingly selling out for Mersing and a fast Malaysia and DEI, followed by India. To ensure success at Mersing, Japan really must commit a portion, at least, of the KB there, which makes any PH strike feable and therefore not worth doing, so the Japanese players are using the other portion of the KB to support action in the DEI. At least this seems to be the trend.

This strategy has substantial downside risks... substantial, in my humble opinion. Your opponent has completely ignored the most powerful threat in the Pacific, the U.S. fleet. If you want my opinion (and you probably don´t, but I´ll offer it any way), I agree with Lowpe. If I were the allies and my opponent completely ignored the U.S. fleet, I would move aggressively and quickly... first with a reverse PH on Truk using the carriers, timed to coincide with a supply convoy moving north of Truk in the blind spot between Truk and Japan to resupply Manilla. This puts the Japanese in a bind... respond to the supply convoy or the carriers attacking Truk. You will probably lose most of the AKs in the convoy, but getting some supplies 15K or so through to Manilla is really threatening to the Japanese position. He would be forced to wheel around and deal with Luzon decisively, losing a lot of very valuable time. Nothing would secure India and Australia more than a serious threat from the Phillipines. As the convoy is making its run to Manila, I would move an amphib group with BB support into the Marianas and take Tinian or possibly Saipan.

That´ll teach him to ignore the yanks...

[Encircled]

Though your idea has merit, the standard Japanese tactic these days is to just leave the Philippines to starve.

Though it would slow down the eventual surrender, its unlikely to deflect a drive to India.

Carriers v Bettys with Torpedoes in 41/42 will eventually only end one way sadly.

He knows he can hold you off with limited surface forces and LBA.

I agree he's got to do something though, and I think he's got to think about a big raid where he can't be ignored, and where he can net VP's. Got to be the Home Islands for me.

[Crackaces]

first with a reverse PH on Truk using the carriers, timed to coincide with a supply convoy moving north of Truk in the blind spot between Truk and Japan to resupply Manilla

The 88L71's on Truk are devastating to say the least .... as encircled pointed out a Betty's launching a strike would leave a mark ..

Its not like PH where a complete surprise lowers flak values and aircraft are sitting on the ground .. instead the USN will lose plenty of air platforms . that without zeros ..

[JocMeister]

Hey Aurorus. Welcome to the loony bin! [:D]

There are a couple of problems with a strike against Truk and sending a convoy to the PI. Encircled mentions one of them.

- Tomasz doesn´t need the KB to protect anything. Betties/Netties are enough. The TOTAL CAP aboard Lex and Ent is 22 Buffaloes and 23 Wildkittens. Avrage EXP on those two squadrons are 67 and 69. Even a small Netty/Betty strike would get through. The CVs can´t protect themselves and even less so a convoy.
- Fuel. Neither the Lex nor Ent TF has enough fuel to make it to Truk and back. Fuel is on its way but its 2 weeks out or more.
- Tom would see me coming from a mile away and would simply evacuate anything of value or fly in planes and sink Lex and Ent.
- Subs. Allied ASW is pitiful at this stage as demonstrated last turn.

In general I would say the US BB fleet is of little use at this stage. They are slow and gulp fuel way faster then I can sustain them. And if I could sustain some of them it would mean more important ships would be left without fuel (Tankers to OZ/India for example). On top of that their AAA rating sucks before the mid 42 updates. Tomasz knows all this. He is a smart guy and he knows the BBs are pretty much useless at this stage. They will start to shine once I need to protect landings (they are GREAT TT magnets [:D]) or hammer atolls. But right now they will sit at PH and eventually move to the WC for refits.

I don´t know where this mentality that the allied "must strike" comes from. I´ve seen a lot of players advocate it. Possibly CRs aggressive play early on? But in all honestly that didn´t work very well if you all remember. They allies doesn´t have to go on an offensive. What the allies DO have to do is make sure you doesn´t succumb to AV. You do that by successfully defending an area that would mean the difference between AV and no AV. Pretty simple. [:)]

[Encircled]

Think its more to do with anything that forces him to devote assets that he would otherwise available for a drive for AV, plus its better reading for us AAR junkies.[8D]

Totally agree though that if you can successfully work out where he is coming (and everything that Mr Kane has done in every AAR screams "India") and mass your forces, then its better to defend that.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Think its more to do with anything that forces him to devote assets that he would otherwise available for a drive for AV, plus its better reading for us AAR junkies.[8D]

Totally agree though that if you can successfully work out where he is coming (and everything that Mr Kane has done in every AAR screams "India") and mass your forces, then its better to defend that.

They problem with that is the Tomasz is too clever and too experienced to fall for something like that. Lets say I land in the Bonins in 3 months. He is not going to do a single thing about it. He will continue to drive for his goals and once they are achieved or failed he will simply turn the boats around and wipe out anything I have in the Bonins.

That being said I´m looking at a couple of things... [;)]

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
I don´t know where this mentality that the allied "must strike" comes from. I´ve seen a lot of players advocate it.

The same holds true for Japan. I think perhaps the best strategy Japan can do is to expand a little less than historical, and conduct a very aggressive defense. Most Japanese attacks aren't worth it in terms of supply gathered vs expenses.

But everyone wants to be a cavalry commander and make the big sweeping charge. Me included.[:D]

Autovic is awfully hard to achieve in 43...I personally don't think you need fear it unless you start throwing away forces. Just keep those carriers safer than the POW![:)]

I have two wishes for this game:

1. You get a chance to conduct a mobile defense of India and then a mobile reconquest. I put the chances of that at close to 0, as I think Mr. Kane would rail all his troops back to Burma once his offensive stalls at the gates of Karachi to avoid defeat in detail -- unless autovic was close.

2. Mr. Kane goes for Alaska, and then Canada. You have to pay PP to cross borders right? That would be neat to see. Doomed to failure ultimately, but neat to see.

[Encircled]

How feasible would a descent on Formosa be?

Give him a month to have all his unrestricted in the DEI or the Indian Ocean, and what left?

Some base forces and aviation units?

Going to be hard to get to, but he couldn't ignore that

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

The same holds true for Japan. I think perhaps the best strategy Japan can do is to expand a little less than historical, and conduct a very aggressive defense. Most Japanese attacks aren't worth it in terms of supply gathered vs expenses.

Agreed, Hard to do but PzB was the master of this. Then again he was master of everything. To my knowledge he is still the only one to fully capture India. [&o]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
Autovic is awfully hard to achieve in 43...I personally don't think you need fear it unless you start throwing away forces. Just keep those carriers safer than the POW![:)]

I don´t know...There is a crapload of VPs in China...and I SUCK in China. Troops alone is probably 15k VPs. [:(]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
I have two wishes for this game:

1. You get a chance to conduct a mobile defense of India and then a mobile reconquest. I put the chances of that at close to 0, as I think Mr. Kane would rail all his troops back to Burma once his offensive stalls at the gates of Karachi to avoid defeat in detail -- unless autovic was close.

2. Mr. Kane goes for Alaska, and then Canada. You have to pay PP to cross borders right? That would be neat to see. Doomed to failure ultimately, but neat to see.

Yepp, PPs for borders. Canada would be cool. [:)] But I don´t think he will go there. Not enough VPs and with PDU OFF hitting the US industry would be almost impossible. I think India will be the target with a 20% chance for OZ and 20% chance for a full China.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

How feasible would a descent on Formosa be?

Give him a month to have all his unrestricted in the DEI or the Indian Ocean, and what left?

Some base forces and aviation units?

Going to be hard to get to, but he couldn't ignore that

No, Formosa he couldn´t ignore for sure! [:D] If I still had the PI and a secure LOC to it it might be doable. But I would lack the troops for it. And it would be suicide. But a fun suicide! [:D]

Hmm, speaking of suicide. Wonder when I should tell Maria I picked up a new PBEM? [:D]

[Crackaces]

India and how the game works is much different than the days of PzB ... especially supply propagation ...

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

India and how the game works is much different than the days of PzB ... especially supply propagation ...

True that. Still a pretty impressive feat. [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Allied Forces[/font]
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Yuck, The list of available force are disgustingly short. They all got into strat mode now and I need to decide where to send them.

- 2nd Marine RGT -San Diego
- 8th Marine RGT - San Diego
- 201st SEP RGT - San Fransisco
- 37th SEP RGT. - Kodiak
- 34th SEP RGT. - Dutch

I´m not going to pick up the 34th and 37th from NOPAC and send them somewhere else. They will remain in place which leaves me with only 3 RGTs to play with. I already decided on sending one of the USMC RGTs to Christmas Island. I like the place and want to keep it in allied hands. So two RGTs left to decide. My initial thought was Suva/Nadi but the NZ battalions will keep it safe against a quick grab. Anything bigger then that I won´t be able to stop anyway. I´m thinking Pago Pago and Vava´u. Thoughts?

Also have two Marine DEF BTL to do something with. Wake and?

[zuluhour]

I like the Marquesas' Islands or Pearl. There both closer to the action and should be safe. I use that Island group early war for a transfer depot on occasion to Nz and Au.
2 cent&nbsp;

[Naskra]

I vote Adak. Secure this before MrK does. Let him start worrying about his northern approaches now.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Encircled

How feasible would a descent on Formosa be?

Give him a month to have all his unrestricted in the DEI or the Indian Ocean, and what left?

Some base forces and aviation units?

Going to be hard to get to, but he couldn't ignore that

No, Formosa he couldn´t ignore for sure! [:D] If I still had the PI and a secure LOC to it it might be doable. But I would lack the troops for it. And it would be suicide. But a fun suicide! [:D]

Hmm, speaking of suicide. Wonder when I should tell Maria I picked up a new PBEM? [:D]

Uh, oh. That's BAD! [:-]