Return of the Sheep! - JocMeister(A) vs. MrKane(J)

[DOCUP]

This thread is growing to quickly.  I can't keep up.  All these new games makes me want to start a new one.

[Aurorus]

[quote]ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Hey Aurorus. Welcome to the loony bin! [:D]

There are a couple of problems with a strike against Truk and sending a convoy to the PI. Encircled mentions one of them.

- Tomasz doesn´t need the KB to protect anything. Betties/Netties are enough. The TOTAL CAP aboard Lex and Ent is 22 Buffaloes and 23 Wildkittens. Avrage EXP on those two squadrons are 67 and 69. Even a small Netty/Betty strike would get through. The CVs can´t protect themselves and even less so a convoy.

There are 18 more Wildcats on Pearl and Wake to take along. Where do you think that these Nells and Bettys will base? Without an Air flotilla or Air fleet HQ, they cannot carry torpedoes. I would be willing to bet a good bit there is no Air flotilla in Truk for at least 3 weeks, probably much longer (as in a year), because the 23rd, 21st, and 11th are in Takao, which will be a busy port for a while. Even when the flotilla HQs move, one will probably move direct to Rabaul, never basing in Truk. Just hit and then immediately run out of Zero range.

You may find the plan too bold, but it is not crazy and not as risky as it appears, since you can always pull back if he does have some Mavis´ who detect you too far out.



- Fuel. Neither the Lex nor Ent TF has enough fuel to make it to Truk and back. Fuel is on its way but its 2 weeks out or more.

There is 610,000 fuel at Pearl, 2 oilers and 2 tankers. The tankers can move fuel to Wake where the BBs and AKs can refuel... the BBs can also return here for another reload from the tankers. The AOs can meet the carriers wherever necessary... just steer clear of Kwajalein.

- Tom would see me coming from a mile away and would simply evacuate anything of value or fly in planes and sink Lex and Ent.

If you follow a northerly route just by Wake, there is not a search plane in existence that will see you coming. Also the Japanese do not have many long range search planes in the early war and rely heavily on Jakes and the like with a range of 8 or 10, not nearly enough time to react.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Aurorus

If you follow a northerly route just by Wake, there is not a search plane in existence that will see you coming.

I will disagree with this statement. I have stopped setting search arcs pretty much and find absolutely no problems with detection as long as the squadron is decently sized.

1st Step for me is to avoid submarines and the KB with the pacific fleet carriers. Step 2 is to get some Marine fighters on them.

[Spidery]

Without an Air flotilla or Air fleet HQ, they cannot carry torpedoes. I would be willing to bet a good bit there is no Air flotilla in Truk for at least 3 weeks,

I think Truk has the 4th Fleet which is a Command HQ and can provide torpedoes to anything based there.

[Erkki]

Truk has Southeast Area Fleet.

[JeffroK]

Its good to see the suggestions of a Custer like approach are being filtered out.

IMHO, its time to choose your first and second line defence line, get your limited mobile troops in and start building forts. Get your LOC to OZ/NZ secured and wait for the assault.

I dont know whether you make your first line stringer than the second, its up to you but i'd recommend forcing MrKane into as many amphib landings as you can. Time taken in getting even basic prep for a landing gives you time, or forces a mistake from him.

It might be a good time to trickle your BB back to the USA, first refits go first, even via the Panama Canal to the East Coast Shipyards.

** Does your wife know the last PBEM finished???

[Capt. Harlock]

Carriers v Bettys with Torpedoes in 41/42 will eventually only end one way sadly.

Early '42, yes. Late '42 with radar upgrades, Atlanta-class CLAAs, and above all the full load of F4F-4's, moderate amounts of Betties can be dealt with.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

[font="Verdana"]Allied Forces[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Yuck, The list of available force are disgustingly short. They all got into strat mode now and I need to decide where to send them.

- 2nd Marine RGT -San Diego
- 8th Marine RGT - San Diego
- 201st SEP RGT - San Fransisco
- 37th SEP RGT. - Kodiak
- 34th SEP RGT. - Dutch

I´m not going to pick up the 34th and 37th from NOPAC and send them somewhere else. They will remain in place which leaves me with only 3 RGTs to play with. I already decided on sending one of the USMC RGTs to Christmas Island. I like the place and want to keep it in allied hands. So two RGTs left to decide. My initial thought was Suva/Nadi but the NZ battalions will keep it safe against a quick grab. Anything bigger then that I won´t be able to stop anyway. I´m thinking Pago Pago and Vava´u. Thoughts?

Also have two Marine DEF BTL to do something with. Wake and?

If Greyjoy stopped your opponent in India by making a Fortress Karachi, he might be planning to send his first wave in India directly there. KB can control the sea lanes all the way to target and the Allies have precious little on land to fight back.
You could consider sending a US Regt. there until the British brigades start arriving. After that, move the US Regt. to wherever you wish.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Aurorus

There are 18 more Wildcats on Pearl and Wake to take along. Where do you think that these Nells and Bettys will base? Without an Air flotilla or Air fleet HQ, they cannot carry torpedoes. I would be willing to bet a good bit there is no Air flotilla in Truk for at least 3 weeks, probably much longer (as in a year), because the 23rd, 21st, and 11th are in Takao, which will be a busy port for a while. Even when the flotilla HQs move, one will probably move direct to Rabaul, never basing in Truk. Just hit and then immediately run out of Zero range.

You may find the plan too bold, but it is not crazy and not as risky as it appears, since you can always pull back if he does have some Mavis´ who detect you too far out.

The 18th Kittens jumped onboard last turn. Its still nowhere near enough to stop a Betty strike. And as Spidery and Erki noted there will be TTs flying. I also bet once my sheep heard has been annihilated he will move the Mavises from Badelboab to either Truk or the Marshalls.

ORIGINAL: Aurorus
There is 610,000 fuel at Pearl, 2 oilers and 2 tankers. The tankers can move fuel to Wake where the BBs and AKs can refuel... the BBs can also return here for another reload from the tankers. The AOs can meet the carriers wherever necessary... just steer clear of Kwajalein.

Those tankers are already dispatched to refuel the CVs. But I´m not going to send them into harms way at this stage. They are more valuable then the CVs right now. The sub threat is very real in the area.

ORIGINAL: Aurorus
If you follow a northerly route just by Wake, there is not a search plane in existence that will see you coming. Also the Japanese do not have many long range search planes in the early war and rely heavily on Jakes and the like with a range of 8 or 10, not nearly enough time to react.

AM Penguin was spotted by Japanese search planes a couple of hexes West of Wake last turn. [:)]

[/quote]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

I like the Marquesas' Islands or Pearl. There both closer to the action and should be safe. I use that Island group early war for a transfer depot on occasion to Nz and Au.
2 cent 

I do the same thing when I feel worried about convoy safety. [:)] Don´t think I will garrison any islands there though. I usually park a couple of high END xAKs there for refuel and an AVP.

ORIGINAL: Naskra

I vote Adak. Secure this before MrK does. Let him start worrying about his northern approaches now.

I might actually do that. Question is if I can get there first!

ORIGINAL: obvert
Uh, oh. That's BAD! [:-]

I think thats an understatement! [:D]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Its good to see the suggestions of a Custer like approach are being filtered out.

IMHO, its time to choose your first and second line defence line, get your limited mobile troops in and start building forts. Get your LOC to OZ/NZ secured and wait for the assault.

I dont know whether you make your first line stringer than the second, its up to you but i'd recommend forcing MrKane into as many amphib landings as you can. Time taken in getting even basic prep for a landing gives you time, or forces a mistake from him.

It might be a good time to trickle your BB back to the USA, first refits go first, even via the Panama Canal to the East Coast Shipyards.

** Does your wife know the last PBEM finished???

That my thinking exactly. As BBfanboy suggest I think Tom is going to go for a coup de grace. Most likely in India. And I think he will come long before the Amphib bonus expires.

Yes, my wife was very happy when there was "no more bloody turns to do". I´m pretty sure she won´t be happy when she finds out. So far I managed to keep it a secret...[:D]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

If Greyjoy stopped your opponent in India by making a Fortress Karachi, he might be planning to send his first wave in India directly there. KB can control the sea lanes all the way to target and the Allies have precious little on land to fight back.
You could consider sending a US Regt. there until the British brigades start arriving. After that, move the US Regt. to wherever you wish.

This is my thinking exactly. I think he will go straight for Bombay and/or Karachi. He will also land on Socotra, Dante and Masirah. And I think he will do so very early. Perhaps as early as February. This is my biggest fear.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]December 12th - 41 [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Nothing good with this turn. At least the usual invasion started coming. Some sloppiness by me in China has put me into big, big dodo.

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Malaya
------------------------
No action here at all. Small KB moves a little south hitting some TFs in the area. Subs are wrecking havoc.

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Java/PI
------------------------
Another big KB strike at Soerabaja. I think most damaged ships in the harbor will be sunk after this turn. Parts of the Sheep heard that fled PI south is being relentlessy hunted by 3 different TFs. These are decoys (xAKLs) so thats fine. But Tom is to experienced to fall for that and the main body of bigger ships that fled E/NE are being hunted into extinction to. A lone CVE or CVL appeared East of Luzon taking out several ships.

First sweeps hit Clark. I had hoped for a little better results. I will have to give up the airspace now.

Morning Air attack on Clark Field , at 79,76

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 21 NM, estimated altitude 31,070 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 40

Allied aircraft
P-35A x 9
P-40B Warhawk x 14
P-40E Warhawk x 40

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-35A: 2 destroyed
P-40B Warhawk: 3 destroyed
P-40E Warhawk: 8 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
13 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 29070 feet

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Morning Air attack on Clark Field , at 79,76

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 24 NM, estimated altitude 31,070 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 40

Allied aircraft
P-35A x 2
P-40B Warhawk x 1
P-40E Warhawk x 10

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
P-35A: 1 destroyed
P-40B Warhawk: 1 destroyed
P-40E Warhawk: 3 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
40 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 29070 feet

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CENTPAC
------------------------
Luckily Ent/Lex dodged the subs this turn by going almost due West. Fuel is really starting to get critical though. Looks like the subs around PH has started to scatter. Thats a shame.

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China
------------------------
Now for the really bad news... Ankang (see screen) starts out empty. I started moving troops there on turn 1 but I should have airlifted in them instead.

Ground combat at Ankang (82,42)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 429 troops, 8 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 31

Defending force 0 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 0

Japanese adjusted assault: 24

Allied adjusted defense: 1

Japanese assault odds: 24 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Ankang !!!

Combat modifiers
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(-)

Assaulting units:
Yokosuka 1st SNLF /1

This is really bad. Ankang have a lvl 1 AF which means he can now airlift in troops. My troops are still 10-12 days out. I have no choice but try to LRCAP and prevent troop lifts. But that will expose my LRCAP to sweeps and will be short lived. Ideas?

I don´t have the turn yet but will update the screen once I do. Here is the location of Ankang.

[Barb]

He cant sweep his own base - not possible with game engine. However your LRCAPing fighters will probably be drawn into any sweep going for Sian...

[obvert]

Ok. Not ideal with the Ankang drop, but that is tough territory, and he can't fly in multiple regiments, let along divisions. At most he can fly in about a regiment and air support in the next few weeks unless he uses ALL of his transport. Doubt that as he has other places to drop soon I'm sure. [;)]

If you're 8-10 days out with troops and can get into some of that +3 on all sides of his drop, I thikn you'll be okay from that. He wants you to evac Sian. I say no. Just build up around his incursion as your troops move back. As long as you own the hexes, get in there first, he has to choose which to go for and you can reinforce. With SL he can't move 200k men up the road to Ankang.

Start moving one medium sized Corps into each of those two hexes behind Sian. It's a good line anyway, pretty similar to where I've ended up of my own choice except a few hexes back on the Angkang road. You might want to own all of the hexes to the other side as well, but traversing all of those woods into the central plains will not leave him much supply and will take forever. Probably just need to get the end of that yellow road.

Run and DIG!!! [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Barb

He cant sweep his own base - not possible with game engine. However your LRCAPing fighters will probably be drawn into any sweep going for Sian...

Ah, of course. My bad.

ORIGINAL: obvert
Ok. Not ideal with the Ankang drop, but that is tough territory, and he can't fly in multiple regiments, let along divisions. At most he can fly in about a regiment and air support in the next few weeks unless he uses ALL of his transport. Doubt that as he has other places to drop soon I'm sure. [;)]

If you're 8-10 days out with troops and can get into some of that +3 on all sides of his drop, I thikn you'll be okay from that. He wants you to evac Sian. I say no. Just build up around his incursion as your troops move back. As long as you own the hexes, get in there first, he has to choose which to go for and you can reinforce. With SL he can't move 200k men up the road to Ankang.

Start moving one medium sized Corps into each of those two hexes behind Sian. It's a good line anyway, pretty similar to where I've ended up of my own choice except a few hexes back on the Angkang road. You might want to own all of the hexes to the other side as well, but traversing all of those woods into the central plains will not leave him much supply and will take forever. Probably just need to get the end of that yellow road.

Run and DIG!!! [:)]

Thanks Erik. I´ll try to stay calm. But god I HATE China. Just looking at it makes me miserable!

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]December 12th - 41 UPDATE[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Small but significant update now that I´ve seen the turn. The rail to Singers are now cut. 1 BDE, 1 AA unit and BF will be destroyed next turn as they are stuck in STRAT mode.

I have only 300ish AV in Singers which will fall possibly in the first attack. Ouch.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]December 13th - 41 [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Multiple invasions this turn.

------------------------
Malaya
------------------------
The lone Tank RGT does not attack at Johorubarhu for which I´m greateful. Allied forces have turned around and is gathering in central Malaya.

The Japanese land unhindered at Palembang. Dutch air force make an appearance but fail to score any hits. Some consolation at least...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 93 encounters mine field at Palembang (48,91)

Japanese Ships
CA Atago, Mine hits 1
CA Takao, Mine hits 1

The base will fall in the first attack I´m certain.

Ground combat at Palembang (48,91)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 985 troops, 6 guns, 4 vehicles, Assault Value = 24

Defending force 5093 troops, 50 guns, 5 vehicles, Assault Value = 128

Allied ground losses:
11 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
So.Sumatra Garrison Battalion
Riouw KNIL Bn /1
Palembang ML Base Force

Defending units:
I./143rd Infantry Battalion
II./143rd Infantry Battalion
III./143rd Infantry Battalion
7th Field Construction Battalion
32nd Field AA Battalion

I´ll try to fly in something more for next turn but is severely lacking in lift capacity. Forts is at 1.00.

Small KB is sitting just SE of Palembang while Big KB is slightly NE of Soerabaja. The continue to cause havoc in the area sinking earlier crippled ships fleeing. For some reason a British TF reacted or moved towards Sumatra (despite a react 0 setting) and got within KB range. All 4 DDs were promptly sunk.

I´ve tried striking out with the MTBs but no luck so far.

------------------------
Philippines
------------------------
Finally the landing comes at Lingayan. Almost 1000 AV. The base is lost on the first day. These forces were identified.

Assaulting units:
21st Ind Engineer Regiment
7th Tank Regiment
9th Infantry Regiment
48th Recon Regiment
3rd Ind Engineer Regiment
4th Tank Regiment
1st Formosa Inf. Regiment
16th Recon Regiment
16th Engineer Regiment
Kanno
48th Engineer Regiment
Tanaka
20th Infantry Regiment
47th Infantry Rgt /1
15th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
2nd Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
3rd Construction Battalion
56th Const Co
28th JAAF AF Bn
48th Field Artillery Regiment
14th Army
8th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
1st Medium Field Artillery Regiment
9th Field Construction Battalion
40th JAAF AF Bn

I´m not sure that is enough to secure Luzon alone. Then again he now has air superiority. The PI "air force" at least strike at the landing.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Lingayen at 79,75

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid spotted at 38 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Allied aircraft
P-35A x 13

Allied aircraft losses
P-35A: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
xAK Shinyubari Maru
xAK Yasuteru Maru, Shell hits 2, Bomb hits 3, on fire
xAK Koyo Maru, Bomb hits 2, on fire
xAK Yamagiku Maru, Shell hits 2, Bomb hits 1
xAK Kamoi Maru

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Lingayen at 79,75

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 36 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Allied aircraft
P-35A x 12

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
xAK Karachi Maru, Bomb hits 1
xAK Siraha Maru, Shell hits 1, Bomb hits 2
xAK Sugiyama Maru, Bomb hits 1

Allied forces are waiting at Clark and Manila. I think I will make a stand at Clark instead of the usual Manila one. With Clark in allied hands Bataan is safe so we won´t have to deal with any Naval bombardments. Clark is also a x3 hex.

Houston and Boise are attacked by Mavises just outside Jessleton. Crap. I had hoped to sneak them into the South China Sea. Now I have to turn back. I´m slowly getting boxed in and fuel is starting to become a worry.

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New Guinea
------------------------
Landings at Wewak and Aitape.

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CENTPAC
------------------------
Subs have left PH. Won´t be using the base anyway but now I can start thinking about sending the BBs to the WC. No doubt the subs will head there though.

Ent/Lex hide in a storm and is undetected this turn. I´ll use the opportunity to get lost. [:)]

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China
------------------------
Sian is now being flanked from both East and West. I just don´t have enough forces in the area to stop much. I´m trying to scrape together anything I can but there isn´t much around that can make it to the defendable terrain in time.

Here is a screen.

[EHansen]

RE moving the BBs. I move them to Hilo first and more to the East and then North to the WC around SD or LA area. Then up the coast to Alameda or Seattle, etc.

[Bullwinkle58]

Jocke, I think what is happening to you is an illustration of something that needs to be said. Heretical to JFBs I suspect, but it needs to be said.

Giving the Japanese player a non-historical start is the MOST advantageous give in the pre-game set-up. I would even venture to say it is more of a give than the Allies getting non-dud torpedoes. At minimum it ought not be given without a give-back of commensurate value i.e. non-dud torpedoes.

The game is VP-balanced on a presumption that PH is attacked. This puts the KB weeks away from the general bug-out in the west, and both gives the Allies valuable ships to be used in the balance of 1942 in the "hard months", as well as prevent Japan from reaping hundreds or thousands of VPs at literally no risk to themselves.

Hindsight tells JFBs that the PH strike is a poor ROI. The carriers aren't there, a fact RL IJN officers did not know but JFBs do with 100% certainty. Also, five years of game life have shown overwhelmingly that the pre-war USN BBs are as much OOB liabilities as useful. And a typical game-PH-strike sinks 2-3 with the others simply being a shipyard clog, but not a VP well for Japan.

As you're seeing, a MKB, combined with a split KB (it fears nothing in the DEI in December), gives three invulnerable naval axes able to plug the bug-out routes and simply harvest the Allies, after crippling the USN submarine force in the west for months at Manila. The Mersing move makes Rangoon fall weeks or months early, which opens the Irrawaddy Valley to invasion that much earlier too, before PPs can accumulate enough to get any Indian help into Burma. And so forth.

Japan ignoring the eastern half of the map tilts history on its head. Non-historical start as an option is fine if the players agree, and especially if the Japan player is of lower skill than the Allied. It's a huge crutch for a lower-ability Japan player. In the hands of a Mr. Kane? You gave away the store.