Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

[ny59giants]

I think I would place my Nick FBs on CAP at night over Magwe. They are less vulnerable this way as all they will face is bombers which is what they are best at destroying. Set them 1 or 2k above the bombers. In my game, Allied fighters feast on them in daytime. [:D]

[Lowpe]

I have tried Nicks...with other planes but not higher than his bombers...

I refuse to fly 35,000 CAP in 1942 at night...I just can't be that mean to my pilots! I would rather they bailout out at much lower altitude.[:D]

I just have to suck up the losses...and move on.

[Lowpe]

To better understand the end game, I have started up an AI game of Downfall...

I really wanted to explore a little earlier...defending a 30 hex exclusion zone around the HI...and then being prepared for the night bombing. I wanted to experience how good the end war USN is...and see those B29s hit hard. No Russia in downfall...so I am spared that particular joy.

I wanted to learn how to minimize supply usage.

Progress in the game is slow, but educational...

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

To better understand the end game, I have started up an AI game of Downfall...

I really wanted to explore a little earlier...defending a 30 hex exclusion zone around the HI...and then being prepared for the night bombing. I wanted to experience how good the end war USN is...and see those B29s hit hard. No Russia in downfall...so I am spared that particular joy.

I wanted to learn how to minimize supply usage.

Progress in the game is slow, but educational...

The IJA in Downfall is organized...in an...interesting way, shall we say.

It has, however, brought home the importance of the Korea-Home Islands shipping lanes.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
It has, however, brought home the importance of the Korea-Home Islands shipping lanes.

Tough to protect in a late Game active Soviet situation...

[Lowpe]

Here is a before and after post of Tjilatjap. On the left is the Allied attack at the end of Sept 42, it was followed up by another attack the next day which also failed. After these attacks, Tjilatjap was besieged, and pounded by several battleships, cruisers, and light cruisers all of October and November and into December. I never really bombed much.

On the right is information from my first deliberate attack in early December, where the combat effectiveness of the Allies dropped substantially from September days.

I was always disappointed with the shore bombardments, as they never really seemed to do a lot of damage (I figured because of the terrain and forts).

So, my question to you is: Do you think the Allies evacuated troops from Tjilatjap? Could the constant bombardments really deteriorate the troops there so badly and be so at odds with the combat replay amounts? The number of AFVs have stayed fairly constant.

He did manage to get one convoy in, which I managed to savage pretty well, and at the time I thought he was planning on reinforcing Tjilatjap...but perhaps he was evacuating instead? The increased number of units is due to the Allies flying in fragments from Soerabaja and Batavia before they fell.

The 5th Coastal Gun battery did not come from either Batavia or Soerabaja, so it had to come in on that convoy. I recall sinking a ship with guns on it in Tjilatjap port...makes sense it was bringing in coastal guns.


What do you think?

[Spidery]

Bit odd that there is no supply(-) on the later attack. If there had been that I could believe you had exhausted his supply in October and there was two months of isolated troops that had disabled all his squads.

When you say not much effect from the bombardments. If you have been doing them for 60 days you would only need about 10 squads or engineers a day disabled to have the effect you are seeing.

Could he have extracted some of the infantry by air? Did you have LRCAP over them? Any unexplained losses amongst his transport planes?

[Aurorus]

[quote]ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Here is a before and after post of Tjilatjap. On the left is the Allied attack at the end of Sept 42, it was followed up by another attack the next day which also failed. After these attacks, Tjilatjap was besieged, and pounded by several battleships, cruisers, and light cruisers all of October and November and into December. I never really bombed much.

On the right is information from my first deliberate attack in early December, where the combat effectiveness of the Allies dropped substantially from September days.

I was always disappointed with the shore bombardments, as they never really seemed to do a lot of damage (I figured because of the terrain and forts).

So, my question to you is: Do you think the Allies evacuated troops from Tjilatjap? Could the constant bombardments really deteriorate the troops there so badly and be so at odds with the combat replay amounts? The number of AFVs have stayed fairly constant.

He did manage to get one convoy in, which I managed to savage pretty well, and at the time I thought he was planning on reinforcing Tjilatjap...but perhaps he was evacuating instead? The increased number of units is due to the Allies flying in fragments from Soerabaja and Batavia before they fell.

The 5th Coastal Gun battery did not come from either Batavia or Soerabaja, so it had to come in on that convoy. I recall sinking a ship with guns on it in Tjilatjap port...makes sense it was bringing in coastal guns.


What do you think?



Spidery is right about the no supply(-) making it difficult to explain his weak AV after adjustments. Very high disruption is quite likely. It is also possible he may have been expected a bombardment attack and was holding units in reserve to try and recover disruption.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Spidery
When you say not much effect from the bombardments. If you have been doing them for 60 days you would only need about 10 squads or engineers a day disabled to have the effect you are seeing.

Could he have extracted some of the infantry by air? Did you have LRCAP over them? Any unexplained losses amongst his transport planes?

In looking back over time, there has been some pretty substantial bombardments with units destroyed as well as disabled (40+ destroyed or disabled a couple of times), and there have been some dismal no damage done ones too. If he turned off reinforcements, the buildup of losses over time could be rather substantial plus the ART stack of doom has let loose several times killing rather indiscriminately. The support squads have really taken it on the chin...so maybe I have averaged 10 a day.

I like the idea he might have put something into reserve trying to shield them from the bombardments...

Allies are losing quite a few transports, but figured that it was supplying China. Why would he fly troops to Tjilatjap from Soerabaja? Tjilatjap to Broome is an awful long way...but I will LRCAP it and see what happens.

[mind_messing]

So, my question to you is: Do you think the Allies evacuated troops from Tjilatjap?

If you think he is evacuating, where is he moving them too? LRCAP the hex to shoot down transport planes to find out. Personally, I don't think so.

Could the constant bombardments really deteriorate the troops there so badly and be so at odds with the combat replay amounts?

Absolutely.

Bombardment results can be deceptive: no matter what the combat report says, 12.7cm shells and upwards will cause damage, but most importantly disruption and fatigue, as well as to burn his supply. Just because the bombardment combat reports aren't showing you hundred of casualties doesn't mean that the bombardments aren't having an impact.

The number of AFVs have stayed fairly constant.

AFV's are a bad indicator: it could be anything from motorized support to improvised AFV's to Pershing tanks. Guns are a marginally better indicator, but suffer from the same problem: no distinction between a mortar and a 25pdr gun. The numbers are thrown off by the motorized support heavy units (ie, 3rd Motor Brigade, Aus Cav Brigade and the tank destroyer units).


Look at the whole picture: the Allies have about 10k more troops, 200 more guns and 1000 more AFV's, but half the assault value. That's a sign that you're doing things right and that the Allied defence is crumbling. The Allies have given you a massive bonus in defending a coastal hex, so hammer hard from land, sea and air.

It doesn't matter how difficult the terrain or how high the forts are when the defending Allied units are being bombed in the morning, bombarded by IJA artillery in the afternoon and hammered by IJN shells at night: you'll break down the defence.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
Look at the whole picture: the Allies have about 10k more troops, 200 more guns and 1000 more AFV's, but half the assault value. That's a sign that you're doing things right and that the Allied defence is crumbling. The Allies have given you a massive bonus in defending a coastal hex, so hammer hard from land, sea and air.

Almost 20K more men[:)]...

It just seemed to me that 40,000 troops was a little light for everything that is reported to be there...and got me to worrying I missed something. That and a lack of a disruption malus.

I think I have a selective memory. I tend to remember all the poor bombardments, and not all the decent ones.[:)] Here is a relatively recent double bombardment and I have been hitting the base with up to three BBs and several CAs & CLs for a long time.

[Lowpe]

Dec 8th, 1942

Quiet. Allied bombers hit Mandalay while fighters sweep. My fighters in theater are at Moulmein recuperating, taking reinforcements. 1 Allied TK is spotted at Ramree Island, subs didn't attack, so I put a group of Oscar IIa on naval attack 100 feet, to see if they can get in a strafe attack escorted by Oscar Ics...however I think the subs will attack before the planes have a chance to.

The Lilly IIb starts production...two size 30 factories with the goal of filling up 5 squadrons. Can't wait to get these planes into action.

Deliberate attack at Ambon destroys 8 allied squads, despite Allied malus for disruption, his defending forces are still tripled and I can't knock down the forts. I definitely did not bring enough troops here...as the Allies sent the Gull detachment here. Will keep pounding and try again in several days.

Two more divisions are 24 miles away from Tjilatjap, and we will have another deliberate attack once they arrive. BB,CA,CL forces keep pounding the defenders.

At the Gilberts, several small Allied taskforces of 2 ships each are moving west to Xmas Island area...

[Spidery]

Looks like he has about 5 divisions worth of units. At full strength that could be 2500 AV and 80000 men. However, he has only a quarter of the squads effective. I think that a disabled squad counts as half the number of men so that would suggest about 48000 men you could see. So he only needs to be 20% under strength or so to explain the troop count.

He could have pulled cadres from units to avoid PP to buy back units?

[Aurorus]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Spidery
When you say not much effect from the bombardments. If you have been doing them for 60 days you would only need about 10 squads or engineers a day disabled to have the effect you are seeing.

Could he have extracted some of the infantry by air? Did you have LRCAP over them? Any unexplained losses amongst his transport planes?

In looking back over time, there has been some pretty substantial bombardments with units destroyed as well as disabled (40+ destroyed or disabled a couple of times), and there have been some dismal no damage done ones too. If he turned off reinforcements, the buildup of losses over time could be rather substantial plus the ART stack of doom has let loose several times killing rather indiscriminately. The support squads have really taken it on the chin...so maybe I have averaged 10 a day.

I like the idea he might have put something into reserve trying to shield them from the bombardments...

Allies are losing quite a few transports, but figured that it was supplying China. Why would he fly troops to Tjilatjap from Soerabaja? Tjilatjap to Broome is an awful long way...but I will LRCAP it and see what happens.

Whether replacements are on or off, he will not be receiving many as this is the only base that he controls on the island. These poor souls are stuck here without relief. What a shameful waste of fine British and Aussie infantry. You may wish to consider moving on into Northern Australia, Darwin, and such given the horrific losses of Aussie infantry and your need to maintain a perimeter around the oil fields.

[Lowpe]

Dec 9, 1942

Allied bombers hit two airfields in Burma, but leave Magwe and Moulmein (where all my fighters are) alone. I have a CA bombardment force two days out of Rangoon. I am hoping he will fly in fighters to Rangoon to engage my fighters at Moulmein.

Quiet everywhere else...

In a day there will be another deliberate attack at Tjilatjap with two freshly arrived infantry divisions...bombardments going in daily here and at Ambon.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Aurorus
You may wish to consider moving on into Northern Australia, Darwin, and such given the horrific losses of Aussie infantry and your need to maintain a perimeter around the oil fields.

I have thought about Oz and elsewhere. The primary goal of any attack is to gather fuel, oil or supplies. Other than that it is hard to justify the effort.

Darwin is a pain to keep supplied, and then protected. I am not sure it is worth attacking now. Perth would be neat to capture, but a major move there and the Allies would rail all the supplies out. Probably not a lot of fuel there either depending what the Allies have done with the Heavy Industry in Oz.

Ceylon seems the best bet to capture some serious resources. The trick would be getting it out underneath the teeth of Allied land base air from India. Ceylon seems very vulnerable with the two ports at either end empty.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Spidery

Looks like he has about 5 divisions worth of units. At full strength that could be 2500 AV and 80000 men. However, he has only a quarter of the squads effective. I think that a disabled squad counts as half the number of men so that would suggest about 48000 men you could see. So he only needs to be 20% under strength or so to explain the troop count.

He could have pulled cadres from units to avoid PP to buy back units?

Thanks for the hard numbers...he could very well be 20% understrength. All the British Brigades are simply fragments from Batavia or Soerabaja flown out before those cities fell.

[Aurorus]

[/quote]

I have thought about Oz and elsewhere. The primary goal of any attack is to gather fuel, oil or supplies. Other than that it is hard to justify the effort.

Darwin is a pain to keep supplied, and then protected. I am not sure it is worth attacking now. Perth would be neat to capture, but a major move there and the Allies would rail all the supplies out. Probably not a lot of fuel there either depending what the Allies have done with the Heavy Industry in Oz.

Ceylon seems the best bet to capture some serious resources. The trick would be getting it out underneath the teeth of Allied land base air from India. Ceylon seems very vulnerable with the two ports at either end empty.

[/quote]

You´ll probably use as much supply as you´ll gain from any raid. But you probably will be at a point soon where you may be looking to trade supply for time at the best possible rate of exchange.

I am curious about your Dinah night-fighter experiment. My current game is Japan Ironman, and I always play PDU:off (always have). If you notice a number of the Dinah squads upgrade and get some numbers in the Dinah night fighters with PDU:off. I am casting about for some way to contest high-altitude 4Es, day and night most efficiently in late 43 and early 44. They are about your fastest fighter, have a nice altitude ceiling, and some cannons. Seems like they are sort of a jack-of-all-trades fighter capable of several roles: handling some P-38s, 4Es, night action. Then again, without armor and still slower than the P-38, they may just be a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none, which will only result in losing a lot of engines and pilots. I am curious how they fair for you as I have several factories researching them now.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Aurorus

I am curious about your Dinah night-fighter experiment.

They also have a high durability (sans armor).

My guess is that the Dinah probably is poor. However, I plan to try them as bomber protection at bases just within reach of his 4e bombers, and I think they will be a good deterrent there. I also plan on using them as sweeps, where they will most likely be fighting P40 and Hurricane, and I think they will work there as well. And finally as a fighter reserve and or potential long range escort.

They should work well as a fighter reserve with great long legs...flexible.

Long range escort is probably better served by Oscar or Zero with drop tanks, however.

I am not making that many of them, so will be hard pressed to try them in all the roles they might fill.[:)]

I have a sneaky suspicion that there inaccurate cannons are better than most think...

[Lowpe]

Dec 10, 1942

Hohmmm. 4E Allied bombers hit Lashio, no opposition.

Surface bombardments hit Ambon and Tjilatjap. At Tjilatjap they nail a sub in port to heavy damage and on fire with internal explosions.

Tomorrow a deliberate attack on Tjilatjap with 4200 assault value versus he 500 (tripled to 1500). All but one divisions is in Tjilatjap now, the final division will arrive in three to four days.

I like these boring days, it give my pilots a chance to improve, plus I get to build more planes.