Back in the East STEF78 (Axis) Oshawott (USSR)

STEF78 · Post by **STEF78** » Sun Jun 15, 2014 7:57 am

Turn 45, 23th april 1942

2 turns before the first may attack, I made a strong recognition of the soviet lines of defence.

My aim is to build a panzer ball between Sumy an Poltava and create a first Pocket west of Kharkov

It will be a tough task, not to breech the first line, but to prevent the counterattacks. We play with non-random weather and in May it's a huge advantage for the 2nd player (the russian). He can move and doesn't fear any counterattack.

STEF78 · Post by **STEF78** » Mon Jun 16, 2014 2:08 pm

Turn 47, 7th may 1942

When opening the turn, I see that Oshawott has retreated from my "target Pocket".

It's annoying but I decided to attack north of Sumy.

My Pzd which were in Bielgorod have less Mp's and I forget one of them in the first steps of the attacks. It was south of Bielgorod....

I don't have enough MP's to close the Pocket. It's very dangerous because his trapped units will immediatly recover their CV.

Due to the alternance clear/mud, this mistake will cost at least one german Mot.

jwolf · Post by **jwolf** » Mon Jun 16, 2014 5:04 pm

This example sounds to me like a convincing argument that the weather in a campaign game should be random.

Edit: why didn't the hex just west of the black arrowhead convert to German control?

STEF78 · Post by **STEF78** » Mon Jun 16, 2014 5:47 pm

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Edit: why didn't the hex just west of the black arrowhead convert to German control?

Because during the last fight, a soviet unit was expulsed from hex ssa by the german mot

ORIGINAL: jwolf
This example sounds to me like a convincing argument that the weather in a campaign game should be random.

But to be honest I appreciate non random weather during the first 17 turns

smokindave34 · Post by **smokindave34** » Tue Jun 17, 2014 12:05 pm

You made a comment earlier STEF78 that you panzer numbers are low however you are not concerned - why is this? Do you have a large number of panzers in the pool waiting to fill out your mobile units? It's seems like it will be challenging to break the Soviet lines with low AFV numbers. I would expect that Oshawott is going to hammer the panzer/mot divisions that formed the pocket and are now exposed in clear terrain. It will be tough but you may want to consider keeping one or two Panzer/Mot divisions in reserve to respond to the inevitable Soviet counterattack - this will at least keep him guessing!

Walloc · Post by **Walloc** » Tue Jun 17, 2014 12:37 pm

ORIGINAL: jwolf

This example sounds to me like a convincing argument that the weather in a campaign game should be random.

Edit: why didn't the hex just west of the black arrowhead convert to German control?

It will revert to axis control during the logistic phase as its out of supply and not in a russian ZoC.

Rasmus

STEF78 · Post by **STEF78** » Tue Jun 17, 2014 2:58 pm

ORIGINAL: smokindave34

You made a comment earlier STEF78 that you panzer numbers are low however you are not concerned - why is this?

I'm not concern because 1941's tanks are useless in 1943. So it's better tu burn them. But in fact I would be more confortable with 5000+ tanks

ORIGINAL: smokindave34

Do you have a large number of panzers in the pool waiting to fill out your mobile units?

I don't have lot of tanks in pool. My Pzd Mot were overused during the blizzard

ORIGINAL: smokindave34

I would expect that Oshawott is going to hammer the panzer/mot divisions that formed the pocket and are now exposed in clear terrain. It will be tough but you may want to consider keeping one or two Panzer/Mot divisions in reserve to respond to the inevitable Soviet counterattack - this will at least keep him guessing!

You're perfectly right, I should have left 2/3 Pzd mot as reserve but due to Oshawott retreat in front of Poltava 6 of my units were at the wrong place at the begining of the turn.

STEF78 · Post by **STEF78** » Tue Jun 17, 2014 6:02 pm

Turn 48, 14th may 1942

Far worse than expected. I was obviously too confident. Not only the mot is lost but 3 Pzd are in great danger!

Oshawott succeeded in moving the CV 19 Pzd stack and one Pzd chossed to retreat east.

??

I'm unable to free my surrounded Pzd. At least, I supply them at the max level. Even isolated, a 3 Pzd stack in mud weather isn't that easy to move

smokindave34 · Post by **smokindave34** » Tue Jun 17, 2014 6:40 pm

I would expect that your 3 panzer divisions will hold out in the mud. I have some experience (unfortunately) with getting armor divisions surrounded during mud (the risk/reward of random weather!) and when I have re-supplied them by air they have held out. The only downside I see is that they are out of HQ range so that will hurt - good luck.

STEF78 · Post by **STEF78** » Wed Jun 18, 2014 6:36 pm

Turn 49, 21th may 1942

Unfortunatly my 3 pzds surrendered. Final odd was 2.3/1. Bad dice rolls and/or good soviet attack.

Pocket is resealed but will be reopened and then we will have 2 mud turns. Most of soviet trapped units will escape.

Oshawott · Post by **Oshawott** » Wed Jun 18, 2014 8:00 pm

I would expect that your 3 panzer divisions will hold out in the mud. I have some experience (unfortunately) with getting armor divisions surrounded during mud (the risk/reward of random weather!) and when I have re-supplied them by air they have held out. The only downside I see is that they are out of HQ range so that will hurt - good luck.

A couple of observations:

1. Take a look at the Panzer divisions. Two of them are only Panzer divisions in name. 13th and 14th almost have no tanks. We don't even know how many tanks are damaged. The number on the counter shows ready AND damaged tanks.
2. The divisions are cut off so they are automatically out of command range as far as I understand it. Morval would have to confirm what happens to command and control in regards to cut-off units. My assumption is that all leader rolls automatically fail.
3. Panzers in mud are absolutely useless. I have seen this many times.
4. The odds on this attack were surprisingly low. I was slightly shocked to see it and it was mostly due to my sloppyness. I had two additional spots available for the attack but didn't use them. I also didn't reassign any units to lower the combat penalty. That's how (over)confident I was. The odds for the other attack on the Mot Division was 18:1.

smokindave34 · Post by **smokindave34** » Wed Jun 18, 2014 10:34 pm

Good point Oshawott concerning the numbers of tanks in those divisions - I didn't notice the VERY low numbers.

Not sure why panzers in mud are useless? Seems as though they would be as effective on defense as an infantry division in the mud.

Loss of 3 panzers divisions this early in the war really hurts. It's going to take a while to get their morale back up to a respectable value.

smokindave34 · Post by **smokindave34** » Wed Jun 18, 2014 10:36 pm

Double post...

Oshawott · Post by **Oshawott** » Wed Jun 18, 2014 11:48 pm

Not sure why panzers in mud are useless?

Just my impressions. I don't actually know if the manual says anything regarding this. I have had multiple games now in which I was able to push around stacks of 3 Panzer Divisions which were above 100 MP during mud. I had, however, many failures attacking infantry during mud, even Romanians with beaten down morale. This is really a subjective assessment.

In the case of this game with STEF78 the stack had a displayed CV of 4. I was able to attack the hex from six sides using Cavalry Corps and Rifle Divisions and I believe I used a total of 16 units for the attack.

STEF78 · Post by **STEF78** » Thu Jun 19, 2014 2:51 am

ORIGINAL: Oshawott
3. Panzers in mud are absolutely useless. I have seen this many times.

15.6.2.4. Weather CV Modifier
Attacking units have their CV divided by 8 during mud.
v1.05.53 - January 4, 2012
Attack CV values are divided by 8 on mud turns.

So you need a 16/1 to move this stack (whatever the units), that"s why I said it was not so easy to achieve

The CV of this 3 units after move and fights was roughly 20, they had something like 32 before moves and fights.

I resupply them at max level, so I could expect them to have a modified CV of 32*25% = 8

It means a raw attacker CV to move them 8*16= 92. Of course the pzd miss their check so the soviet didn't need a 92CV but unless I my numbers are totally wrong, I insist: moving a 8 CV stack in mud isn't that easy.

Oshawott · Post by **Oshawott** » Thu Jun 19, 2014 8:27 am

I resupply them at max level, so I could expect them to have a modified CV of 32*25% = 8

Displayed CV of these three units was 4 at the beginning of my turn (see screenshot). So that is half of what you calculated. Then take into account failed leader checks and air bombardment. Also, displayed CV is based on fortification level of 1 but my sappers reduced the fort to 0. I will show the combat in my AAR.

loki100 · Post by **loki100** » Thu Jun 19, 2014 10:38 am

ORIGINAL: smokindave34

Loss of 3 panzers divisions this early in the war really hurts. It's going to take a while to get their morale back up to a respectable value.

aye, that has to hurt, any offensive that Stef78 was planning must have been on a shoestring with almost no margin in any case, and he's now lost the equivalent of a Pzr Corp for most of this year?

jwolf · Post by **jwolf** » Thu Jun 19, 2014 10:57 am

I can't help but fear that Stef has run into 1943 a year early. This looks very bad for the Axis side.

Oshawott · Post by **Oshawott** » Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:18 am

Loss of 3 panzers divisions this early in the war really hurts. It's going to take a while to get their morale back up to a respectable value.

Question for Axis specialists. 10th Panzer is scheduled for withdrawal. Does it come back as an empty shell and is then withdrawn or does it simply disappear?

SigUp · Post by **SigUp** » Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:38 am

I think it should come back as a shell to be refitted before it can be withdrawn.