Oshawott (Russia) vs. Stef78 (Axis)

[STEF78]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

This game, if nothing else, has demonstrated that Odessa absolutely needs to be taken in 1941. Letting it slide is bad news for the German.

Agreed, I won't make this error anymore

Oshawott has played brilliantly and taken advantage of clear Axis errors here. It's probably too late to fix those errors, now. Not just the Odessa business, but the entire 42 Axis offensive. It was poorly timed and poorly executed and was done in the wrong place and the wrong way.

I've made several errors.
- I allowed Oshawott too many successfull counterattacks in 1941
- I haven't find the good level of retreat/defence in blizzard period South of Briansk

And Oshawott is tactically a much better player than me.

Concerning may 1942 attack, I don"t agree with your statement.
1)Timing: Attacking early may was compulsory. Waiting for the 25th june to attack would have mean facing level 3 forts.
2)Execution: That's ok, my Pocket wasn't well executed but Oshawott's defence was smart with a lot of reserve activation and he had the good idea of retreating in front of Kharkov. Without reload and experience it's hard to realize the "Lvov's pocket" the first time....
3)The wrong place: my aim was to create successive mid size pockets and the place I choosed was the easiest to achieve this goal (no forest, no swamp). I had no intention of attacking directly to Voronezh
4)The wrong way: cf point 2, I don"t understand the difference between execution and way

This is my 7th GC campaign as GHC. I'm not a computer calculating each move or odd but I think that I'm able to conduct successfull attacks. This one failed so the facts speak for you. But I'm pretty sure that this game was already in bad shape for the german fall 1941. I was already behind the curve at this time and may 1942 is just the consequence of this poor 1941's campaign.

I was surely too confident in 1941 as I hadn't seen any AAR from Oshawott on the forum.

NEVER underestimate your opponent, hit hard and have no mercy

[Flaviusx]

The timing was off because you didn't coordinate things with mud in mind. For example, that encirclement you executed. The very next turn following would be mud. The Soviet was therefore in a perfect position to throw the kitchen sink at it, break it up, and isolate some of your own units leaving you with no means to respond. You shouldn't have tried to do this encirclement in the first place given the weather sequence.

You also, as I have stated elsewhere, did it in the wrong place. The operation you mounted had only limited local significance even if it had worked. Your true strategic goal should have been to dislocate the very long Soviet line by striking south east towards the Sea of Azov and capturing or wrecking the rail junctions in the area, thus stranding the whole southern concentration. No encirclement was immediately necessary to do this. It would be a straightforward penetration timed to coincide with mud and leave several Soviet fronts stranded from the Dnepr bend south, with no means to flee east and trapped against the south. These could be corralled against the Crimea in due course. The eastern ukraine would then be opened up for further operations once the weather cleared up. You could even turn his flank and start munching away in a north easterly direction -- this would be the right time to conduct encirclements of a war winning nature.

So I object to what you did on larger strategic grounds. The opportunity to do this has now passed. You are decisively engaged in a battle of attrition with the Red Army that has to favor the Soviet.

[Oshawott]

Great strategy discussion. That's what the game is all about. I am withholding any judgement or final assessment because the battle is raging on with two players trying to outsmart each other.

I like the idea of pushing to the Sea of Azov and splitting the Russian front. I don't think it would allow any major encirclement because the Axis units are too weak. But the Axis might have been able to gain lots of space.

I understand why STEF78 tried an early encirclement. He didn't want to wait till June to face numerous Rifle Corps. However, the mud/clear transition was clearly not in his favor and caused a real catastrophe.

The main problem is that there is no infantry supporting the attack. The offensive thrust is almost entirely based on Panzer and Motorized Divisions with very low TOE.

[Oshawott]

T53 - Orel Sector

Mud. I am setting up a layered defense with Rifle Corps, Cavalry Corps and Tank Corps.

[Oshawott]

T53 - Data

[Saper2229]

If you want take Odessa you must bombing port - easy to take it, Soviet cannot air cover it.

[Flaviusx]

ORIGINAL: Saper222

If you want take Odessa you must bombing port - easy to take it, Soviet cannot air cover it.

This assumes no house rules to limit bombing.

For whatever it is worth I think the WitE air model is broken and can be abused to achieve any number of unrealistic things due to the fact that it is on demand. WitW is going to fix this, full stop, and adopt an entirely new air model. This model will be applied to WitE2, and change things dramatically. You will no longer be able to fly missions on demand. They will have to be planned out in advance and be executed in their own discrete phase. No more spam bombing.

[Saper2229]

In war against strong defensiv target with see supply line was only 2 means - Naval and Air Flotte, not infantry. After cut supply - cupture ore retreat - that is historical.
Germany take Sevastopol, but the first - destroyed port and see supply.

[Flaviusx]

Nothing historical about it. In real life Odessa held out until October of 41 and was successfully evacuated. Sevastopol fell to a good old fashioned assault after a 9 month siege. Leningrad was never cut off from supply via Lake Ladoga by airpower.

Nor did the Red Air Force do any better in the Baltic. The Kurland pocket held out until the end of the war; Konigsberg, like Sevastopol, fell to brutal assault not starvation. The record on both sides in interdicting sea supply is poor. This is just one of several ways in which the game vastly overstates airpower. (Strategic bombardment is just as grossly overstated, these being essentially tactical air forces that in game can perform feats beyond the means of Bomber Command or 8th Air Force.)

Air model is bad. If you want to abuse it, go ahead, but don't pretend this is historical.

[Oshawott]

I am not sure what I am missing. To me it seems very hard to bomb a level 15 port. You would have to get it down to 6%. Repair rate of a port is 3% per turn so that doesn't help either. Bombing the port would take time and cause massive bomber losses.

He just started bombing the port this turn (T59). 60+ bombers lost for 3% damage. I have 3 PVO regiments in the city. I have noticed however that the 85 mm AA guns don't fire at all. Only the 37 mm. That seems odd. Does anyone know why this is the case?

[Oshawott]

T54 - Kursk Sector

Mud is over and he shifts his Panzer ball further south towards Kursk. The screenshot is before my move.

[Oshawott]

T54 - Kursk Sector

For the next couple of turns I will simply try to hit his Panzer divisions as hard as possible to destroy as many tanks as I can. There are numerous reserve activations this turn. In one battle four of his units get activated but the odds are still 8.9:1.

I have set up my troops so that I can attack the flanks as I expect him to push northeast. I would also like to protect myself in case he pushes south which scares me more.

[Oshawott]

T54 - South

The south remains interesting. He was trying to encircle Dnepropetrovsk twice during the previous turns (I lost track and don't remember when it happened) but I was always able to break the encirclement. My forces are strong enough now to keep the city open.

[Oshawott]

T54 - Data

Very active air war this turn so I am displaying air losses as well.

[Oshawott]

T55 - Kursk Sector

Screenshot before my move. Real problems with stacking.

[Oshawott]

T55 - Kursk Sector

Screenshot after my move. I hit all those stacks with 3 units in front of 3 units causing maximum damage.

[Oshawott]

T55 - Guards

It's July now so the maximum number of guard rifle divisions changes from 10% to 17%. Therefore, I get a large number of guard units this turn. So many I can't even display them all. Most of these divisions are below 50 morale so I move them all back for R&R.

[Oshawott]

T55 - Data

The screenshot doesn't show it but there were another 250+ tanks destroyed this turn.

[Oshawott]

T56 - Kursk Sector

Screenshot before my move. Stacking is still problematic for the Axis. In addition two Panzer Corps in the second line are protected only by a weak brigade. My goal is to hit as many Panzer and Motorized divisions as possible and to open the pocket again while displacing the two Panzer Corps. I have incredible fire power in this sector now. 14 Tank Corps, 13 Cavalry Corps and numerous Rifle Corps.

[Oshawott]

T56 - Kursk Sector

Pocket reopened and Panzer Corps displaced. I am even able to route two of his units.