My second AAR (again)

[yvesp]

The losses for the turn are small.

But this doesn't account for the lost commonwealth convoys, nor the added effect of lost production, which might well persist in the next few turns. Overall, the commonwealth lost more than its production this turn!

Still, possibly it will have some respite in Egypt with its latest victory.

[yvesp]

The production in January 41.

The Russians now know for sure that Germany is not coming at it.
Still, Japan is strong enough not to triffle yet with it.

[yvesp]

The axis rolls initiative and decides not to move first.
Why would it, in the heart of winter ?
They feel they did well when the weather proves to be absolutely awful (roll of 10)

[yvesp]

In Egypt, Wavell again takes some risks ; but the opportunity won't happen soon again!
The result is good enough to mostly kick the Italians out of Egypt. This should buy more time, and in particular let the axis think twice before landing marines in the area: the Wavell force is now mostly relieved of any pressure and available for any counterattack.

[yvesp]

Germany seizes the opportunity that Wavell is on the other side of Egypt to invade in the Sinaï. The result is exceedingly good ; Suez is now closed!

Meanwhile, the Italians prepare their own invasion, but fails to once again trouble the commonwealth convoys.

[yvesp]

In China, Imezu takes his feet on the carpet and botches an easy attack. Hopefully, the Chinese chose a blitz attack to limit losses! Otherwise, the Japanese army would have severely suffered!

[yvesp]

A Condor unit raids the docks of Liverpool where poorly defended carriers sit idle.
But a spitfire squadron intercpets and the German planes are happy to get away mostly unscathed.

[yvesp]

The British have brought back an Indian infantry on the panic mode, while the Italian marines later disambarked to secure the hold on Port Saïd.

And now, the discussions are raging in Italian and German high commands.

Must the attack on Suez proceed now or not ?


Con: estimated success chance around 20% for the capture of the city considering the current conditions. The likely loss of both marine cannot be shortly replaced and the attack on Egypt will have to proceed once more at a slow pace.

Pro: Mostly terminates the campaign in Egypt. With Suez captured, the British will not be able to bring reinforcements from their asian possessions. The British might bring reinforcements through the med, but keeping supply on will be hell! The Wavell army would be lost, and Transjordania and Syria would soon follow (estimated losses for the British: between 18 and 37 depending on the fate of the ships and aircrafts) ; there is a small chance of aligning Iraq before Russia declares war on it (as seems not unlikely) ; finaly, this will soon let Italy turn west.

The alternative and more conservative possibility is to stick to Port Saïd, awaiting for more reinforcements, possibly even a German armor, harrassing the British forces. The drawback is that this might leave the Commonwealth time to regroup and bring enough troops to force a standoff: they can reinforce at least as fast as the axis can reinforce.

So, fellow generals, what would YOU do ?

This is a possible turning point in the war: will there be a Suez battle ?


odds: Italian marine (4), German marine (5) vs Indian infantry (4) likely supported by a battleship in the red sea (2) No plane can intervene (to far or disorganized) ; weather is rainy, the hex is a city. Playing 2d10 table, allied friction, fractional odds. Estimated odds: +1 or +2 (depending on fractional odds roll.) ; end of turn very likely for the axis (40% this impulse, 70% on the next, allied one)

I can provide additional information.

[composer99]

If Wavell's forces were still organized, I would say the attack on Suez is a no-go for sure.

I'm not sure about it, as it. +1/+2 isn't a very good attack, especially as it's probably an assault.

However, I should note that Suez is not a city. Which would be a good reason for the Axis to get some blitz units in, if they can.

[yvesp]

There is no time for that.
No Transport available, turn ending soon.
I agree on the no-no if Wavell was organized. But he is not!
And i know that the odds are poor. But such a chance ? will it come again ? Possibly, possibly not...

[Numdydar]

Thanks so much for the AAR. Please keep it going as your explaining why you are doing things is very helpful to me [:)]

I would say try the attack. At worst case you will be in the same position you were in last turn in NA. Which does not seem all that bad. Plus have the Suez open for the Allies seems like it will have very little impact over the next year or so. While a success could change the game. It seems to me that that is why these units were built so that they could be used in a way that could make a big difference in the game. And, even thought a risky attack, this is a game changing moment [:)]. Otherwise they will eventually be cut off and die anyway at some point as I doubt they will ever be able to be withdrawn.

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: Numdydar
Thanks so much for the AAR. Please keep it going as your explaining why you are doing things is very helpful to me [:)]

I intend to AAR the whole game in the same way.
I hope it keeps being interesting!

I would say try the attack. At worst case you will be in the same position you were in last turn in NA. Which does not seem all that bad. Plus have the Suez open for the Allies seems like it will have very little impact over the next year or so. While a success could change the game. It seems to me that that is why these units were built so that they could be used in a way that could make a big difference in the game. And, even thought a risky attack, this is a game changing moment [:)].

That's exactly one part of the analysis and why I badly want to try the attack!
But the odds are not that good.

Otherwise they will eventually be cut off and die anyway at some point as I doubt they will ever be able to be withdrawn.

This is wrong : the units can be withdrawn at anytime, being marines. In the same way as they were brought. They are thorns in the CW side. What could they do if they are withdrawn ?
- Capture Cyprus, an easy task!
- Capture Malta, a not so easy task
- Capture Gibraltar, which likely would require some mistake on the part of the Commonwealth (currently protected by one corps and one div, a second corps being on the way for the end of the turn)
- Make the defense of Greece difficult

There are other uses. So, in principle you are right: if the combat is lost, the Axis is no worst than before ; but the Commonwealth is sudddenly much better! Of course, the reverse is true: if the combat is won, the Commonwealth is much worse than before, if only at some later point in the war they will have to recapture Egypt. Sole consolation: the Commonwealth will be able to regroup its fleets to better protect the Atlantic.

There are few decision that can so drastically change the course of the game!

Of course, one can also argue that if the german plan is followed, Gibraltar will fall from ground attacks. And Egypt cannot hold if Gibraltar falls. But even so, the early loss of Egypt can only be helpful.

[brian brian]

ORIGINAL: yvesp

Indeed, the Commonwealth doesn't even wait!
That demi victory should win some time! Indeed, bringing troops to Egypt isn't that easy for Italy...

I've never played that a motorized gun could be used to satisfy an attacking blitz unit loss requirement…. do I play that wrong? The rule says "ARM, MECH, or MOT" … is any motorized unit a MOT? Artillery can make breakthrough moves "but is not considered an ARM for any other purpose"


I wouldn't attack Suez with the 2 Axis MAR. They are too valuable as a future threat. Perhaps if an Axis division could be landed as a loss taker, at least. The German Condor could possibly help a lot in securing Axis supply in the Eastern Med…and blocking the likely strong Royal Navy intervention to keep Wavell in coastal supply.

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: brian brian
I've never played that a motorized gun could be used to satisfy an attacking blitz unit loss requirement…. do I play that wrong? The rule says "ARM, MECH, or MOT" … is any motorized unit a MOT? Artillery can make breakthrough moves "but is not considered an ARM for any other purpose"

Well.. For may part I indeed always played using mech or arm to fulfill blitz losses. You were closer than me!!! But there is no reason the motorized AA could not fulfill the role: they are motorized in their own right.

I wouldn't attack Suez with the 2 Axis MAR. They are too valuable as a future threat. Perhaps if an Axis division could be landed as a loss taker, at least. The German Condor could possibly help a lot in securing Axis supply in the Eastern Med…and blocking the likely strong Royal Navy intervention to keep Wavell in coastal supply.

Yeah... that's the other side of the coin...
My head tends for that solution, my heart wants to take the chance and attack!

[brian brian]

I found this in the FAQ. Doesn't quite bring 100% clarity to my question, but is close. The wording of the question supposes that MOT ENG or ARM ART or MOT AA (in this case) is a different unit type than MOT or ARM. Any artillery unit is of type "ART" and is not then a unit of type "MOT", in my opinion, and taking a motorized gun to satisfy a blitz loss requirement looks wrong to me. ???

11.16.6
Blitz loss can be taken by what? Can it be taken by MOT ENG, ARM ART, etc?
Or just the named types (MOT, MECH, ARM, HQA)?
Are DIV OK too?
MOT, MECH, ARM, HQ-A corps, armies or divisions. Date 29/11/2007

[AlbertN]

Yes, Divisions are fine too.
ENG comes first only if ENG bonus has been used in combat.
Otherwise it's MOT, MECH, ARM, ARM-HQ for Blitz combat.

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I found this in the FAQ. Doesn't quite bring 100% clarity to my question, but is close. The wording of the question supposes that MOT ENG or ARM ART or MOT AA (in this case) is a different unit type than MOT or ARM. Any artillery unit is of type "ART" and is not then a unit of type "MOT", in my opinion, and taking a motorized gun to satisfy a blitz loss requirement looks wrong to me. ???

11.16.6
Blitz loss can be taken by what? Can it be taken by MOT ENG, ARM ART, etc?
Or just the named types (MOT, MECH, ARM, HQA)?
Are DIV OK too?
MOT, MECH, ARM, HQ-A corps, armies or divisions. Date 29/11/2007

Hum. Interesting. Maybe you should raise this issue to Steve ?
But the FAQ dates a way back too.
There may have been clarification meanwhile, or outright changes.
Honestly, I find this good that motorized art (for example) can be taken as loss in a blitz ; this at least makes their oil gulping worthwhile (the marginally faster pace is not really enough!)

[yvesp]

Reviewing the situation, the Axis position is stronger than I saw first.
Even if it loses both marine units, Suez may still be captured, but obviously the position would be much weaker and might not hold against a comeback of Wavell.

How ?

Simple: if the defending unit in Suez is destroyed, then the axis may seize initiative in the next turn. Italy can load units in Italy, and disembark them directly in Port Saïd. Then the embarked units can roll in Suez in the following land phase.

There are many unknowns there:
- On the first impulse, only Italian units can be loaded (no German unit is ready to be embarked), unless the current turn lasts long enough to cater for that opportunity which is unlikely
- This would require an Italian combined action
- Of course, it works only if the axis has initiative (something like 80% chance if the axis accepts a reroll)
- The Italians must keep a fleet in the east med to ensure that the British don't lock the sea area (in the presence of the enemy : +1 movement) ; the Italians transports would then not have the range to reach Port saïd (movement allowance of 3 only for both transports)
- Of course, the fleet might be intercepted if the British stay at sea!

Last of all, Italian reinforcements might not be strong enough to hold against the come back of wavell, and the ships in port might run a risk...
A lot of things to think about! But if the axis fails the 20% chance of outright success, that scenario could follow up on an additional 25% chance.

Still mulling over all of this!

[yvesp]

I finally settled on wisdom and decided not to attack Suez.
Just to be sure, I played the mock combat.

The result would bring us too far as a digression into the game ; we cannot know what would have really been achieved... but we already know that this would have been a mixed result for the axis, losing for some time the ability to strike in the med. And to exploit the result, the Italian would have had to invest in heavy maneuvers in the next turn.

[yvesp]

The USA finaly decide that it is time to do something.

They decide to grant some old destroyers to the Commnwealth, then proceed to occupy Greenland and Iceland.

This comes just after the previous display of anger where they cut some resources to Japan.

The axis is hardly impressed. War doesn't seem to be coming soon, with a so low US military production that doesn't even match japan's.