My second AAR (again)

[yvesp]

Germany production is now soaring: 29 minus 2 for Russia. It has 17 oil on map.
All factories are working and Italy receives one ressource and one oil.

Italy produces 6 and saves one oil. It has 4 oil on map.

Japan produces 13 and saves three oil ; it now has 20 oil on map.

China produces 7, with one resource coming from french indochina.

The Commonwealth produces 29 and saves 4 oil. The Persian one is lost for lack of convoy. It has 16 oil on map.

The USA produce 11 and save one oil. They have 7 on map.

Russia produces 14 but don't save oil ; they have 2 idle factories and will be very happy to get some more oil from Persia... They have 5 oil on map and they receive 2 build points from Germany.

Overall, the Allies outproduced the Axis by (11+16+29+7)=63 against (27+6+13)=46


The losses for that winter are minimal, thanks to the weather which prevended most serious military operations.

[yvesp]

The spring reinforcements.

The commonwealth is building very defensively from the start of the game ; that's a common pattern for me. This includes a steady amount of convoys, many planes, mostly Navs and Fighters, and some factories and synth oil. The starting navy is usually good enough, and it can be augmented with all there is in the construction and repair pools. Put in the occasional land unit for garrison (Gilbraltar, Egypt, some at home.)

Germany has to produce an extremely well balanced mix of units. Unlike the Commonwealth, it cannot afford to forget any area considering the chosen strategy (go west), and the long term threat (Russia, which will be coming sooner or later.) This can only work if the units that are built now will later prevent a landing in Europe. Actually, I am dubious : I feel that going west will leave Germany too vulnerable when the bear strikes.

China and Russia are paranoid: Infantry and, for Russia, any land unit. Throw in possibly a plane sometime (I did not this time and the air force is obsolescent.)

Japan also has a hard balance to strike: it must prosecute correctly the land battle against China, so its main production is land units (mostly militias and territorials for losses), and the occasional long term naval units (carriers.) There will be time later to augment the air force. Anyway, the choices are rather difficult there.

The USA take their time, build long term units and special ones, which may be used for good effect from the start of their war: carriers, battleships, HQs, marines, paras... Their air force is obscolescent too... But why risk building old units that might get scrapped the following year ?

At this time, the Commonwealth has 5 fighters, 3 navs and 2 bombers.
It faces 6 german fighters, usually one notch better, 2 navs and thre bombers.
This is a standoff: for Germnay, going and bombarding on Great Britain without fighter cover (German fighters cannot follow) is certain death for the bombers. But the reverse is true... So the planes face each other with rare sorties... The attempt on Liverpool showed how dangerous a bomber raid could be.

[composer99]

With the better chits in 1941 the US should be able to get going on at least its first gear-up, although the fact that its entry chits are mostly low value will hold it back. At least the chits get better this year.

The fact that the Allies out-produce the Axis despite the US not gearing up and the still sluggish performance of the USSR tells you the kind of long odds the Axis face. Imagine how much worse it would be if the US had geared up!

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: composer99
With the better chits in 1941 the US should be able to get going on at least its first gear-up, although the fact that its entry chits are mostly low value will hold it back. At least the chits get better this year.

Not only the chits are poor, but the US failed to draw most chits when there was a possibility!

The fact that the Allies out-produce the Axis despite the US not gearing up and the still sluggish performance of the USSR tells you the kind of long odds the Axis face. Imagine how much worse it would be if the US had geared up!

Of course ; but a lot of the Commonwealth productions goes to useless (of sorts) material, which won't help the reconquest! This means convoys or navs, which later are utterly useless (except the Sunderland.)

However, this is mitigated by the fact that Germany is also producing units that makes this production currently useful, and that Germnay might well find itself short of land units should the USSR be able to strike sooner than expected!

The Japanese position is now fairly strong. I think the USA may find themselves in a long pacific war. Unless Russia uses the relative German weakness to roll a strong offensive against Japan which is absolutely no match if Russia can rampage...

Indeed, I cannot foretell: I always play Russia "on feeling", in an opportunistic mode. It's pretty clear that the current targets are Persia and Irak.

[yvesp]

In March, the axis fails to take the initiative ; as it has nothing that important to do which warrants losing the +1 current position, it lets the first impulse choice to the Allies who choose to go first. After all, the weather might still be awfull...

But with a roll of 10, the weather is absolutely perfect as the whole planet enjoys the first sunny days of the year.

Note that after the reinforcement step, the Commonwealth and Germany have the following planes:

* Ftr:
Ge: 6,6,5,5,4,4*
Cw: 6,5,5,5,5,4,4
only one Ge 6 plane is range 4 ; all other are range 3.

* Nav:
Ge: 2 range 9, 2 range 9, 3 range 15
Cw: 2 range 9, 3 range 11, 3 range 4, 1 range 20, 1 range 20
The British force begins to be able to control the middle atlantic ; that will likely to be shortly put to test with the recent rebase of 4 German submarines in Bordeaux.

* Lnd:
Ge: 4 range 3, 5 range 3, 4/3 range 5*
Cw: 3/3 range 7*, 2/3 range 6*, both with nav abilities

Overall, the British air force is now superior to the German one, but inferior to the combined air force of both Germany and Italy. For pure naval capabilities, the Commonwealth air force is superior. The Axis planes usually have to short a range to be exceedingly usefull for offensive purposes.

[yvesp]

The Commonwealth seizes the opportunity and pulls a combined.

The queens have time to go and pick a unit in Bombay and come back to the res Sea.
Meanwhile the Fleet based in Gibraltar moves to the east Mediterranean, bringing in Egypt the South African reinforcement corps intented for Gibraltar.

And the Hampden bomber sets off from Cairo to bombard the axis positions.

These moves were not exactly anticipated by the axis which thought it would have some time.

[yvesp]

With one of the marine units disorganized and out of supply, the Commonwealth proceeds to an immediate, though dangerous, counterattack.

Indeed, the Indian troops launched through the canal fail their mission to recapture the other side. However, they succeed in wiping out the Axis marine units. This can be counted as an important strategic victory, considering that these elite troops were a severe liability for the coming summer.

I chose an assault ; chosing a blitz would probably not have been better: the result would have been a retreat, and the commonwealth would have pushed the marines in the middle of the desert: out of supply and disorganized they would anyway have been easy pickings in a subsequent impulse ; Port Saïd would have been occupied, and no reinforcements could have been brought.

Note also that the mock combat that I did for an axis attack on Suez led more or less to the same result... The axis then seemed destined to lose that combat!

[yvesp]

Suddenly, as Germany declares war on Yugoslavia and aligns Rumania, the USA seem less complacent. It looks like the time they were watching away is passing.

[yvesp]

Now, Italy watches Egypt with some ennoyment.

What to do ? The only unit that can reach Port Saïd before the British moves in is a paltry 4 factor militia. Can it hold the city hoping for reinforcements ? The following impulse, another infantry might move in... but it would require 3 more impulses to bring in a more serious unit, either a german armored unit, or Grazziani, both of which would be strong enough to hold the port. The other aspect is that supply is quite short! Only two Italian convoys are available, and either one could be destroyed by British submarines. Convoys are coming in the following turn, but up to now, supply to North Africa has been difficult to keep flowing!

Even though, this means keeping a defensive position for at least one turn, while the British might still be able to pull off some reinforcements from unlikely places!

Leaving Port Saïd would mean swallowing the loss of the marine units for no gain, and postpone the capture of Egypt for several turns. Trying to keep it might just be sending troops and ships to their destruction for no immediate gain.

A last possibility could be to catch and attack the British Fleet while risking the militia to salvage whatever can be from the previous combats. The Italian navy is superior in firepower, and whatever remains of the Royal Navy is probably not likely to move to the Med: with an amph out there, and their own navy in a perfect states, the Germans are a threat that the British might be wary of. If a surface battle goes in favor of the Italians, could they possibly proceed in Egypt unhindered ?

Italy chooses a combined, while Germany takes a land to invade Yugoslavia.

[yvesp]

The Italians proceed to bombard an efficient transport in Malta.
The pilots of the Ark Royal do a great job!

[yvesp]

But they cannot prevent the pipistrelos from badly damaging the transports.

[yvesp]

Finally, at the last moment, the Italians abandon the idea of Port Saïd.
The transport cannot get directly to the port (presence of the enemy.)
The alternative is not palatable : put a large part of the Italian fleet in the 0 box to protect the precious transport, and hope that the RN fails to locate and damage this easy target...

Instead, Italy decides to opt for a more classical approach and sends in its submarines while the RN did not have time to properly reinforce its escorts.

They find someting in Cape St Vincent...

[yvesp]

But the navs in Gibraltar are good wardens!

[yvesp]

Still, the submarines don't go without some glory

[yvesp]

In Cape verde, the patrooling French are attentive.

[yvesp]

And they force the subs to an humiliating retreat.

[yvesp]

While in the Gulf of Guinea the same scenario seems to repeat itself.

[yvesp]

Indeed exactly!
The Itailans were lucky to lose only one sub!

[yvesp]

In the east med, the britsh try to chase the german navs...
But the carrier group in destroyed instead!

[yvesp]

However, the powerfull british Flak does the job.