He might not have the shipping but since he appears to be going for AV and knowing that he had a plan before the start of the game to do so, I suspect he is not wasting time moving resources and has converted a lot of xAK-T. I think it is not a lack of shipping. I've never been at a loss for shipping as Japan in 2/42 and I am playing DBB-C which requires more shipping for not only supply and resources but non-troop cargoes like tanks, trucks and guns.
But TBH, my sole reason for thinking another hammer is going to drop is the game MrKane has played so far. It is a work of art and I suspect that his excellence will continue.
Return of the Sheep! - JocMeister(A) vs. MrKane(J)
Moderators: wdolson, MOD_War-in-the-Pacific-Admirals-Edition
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offenseman
- Posts: 768
- Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 11:05 pm
- Location: Sheridan Wyoming, USA
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
Sometimes things said in Nitwit sound very different in English.
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
He is going to go for all of Australia.
Mr. Kane has broken up the carriers, an excellent opportunity for you to concentrate your carriers and hit him hard. You have the naval search available to really create a very favorable CV engagement.
Or for you to hit the Home Islands while he is busy elsewhere.
Mr. Kane has broken up the carriers, an excellent opportunity for you to concentrate your carriers and hit him hard. You have the naval search available to really create a very favorable CV engagement.
Or for you to hit the Home Islands while he is busy elsewhere.
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SqzMyLemon
- Posts: 4239
- Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 2:18 pm
- Location: Alberta, Canada
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
I thought I'd throw this in.
If Mr. Kane is going for AV, what would a raid on the Home Islands do to deter him from still following his game plan? While the Allied CV's are conducting a pinprick raid against some factories, Mr. Kane might be gutting Austalia with no threat from Allied forces interdicting his LOC.
Nemo always pointed out that he'd welcome an opponent's attempt to divert his attention while he simply stuck to the plan and eviscerated his opponent. I think that is sound advice.
I fail to see how a raid against the Home Islands would suddenly cause Mr. Kane to do anything differently. A landing is another story, but I doubt any Allied attempt to gain a foothold at this early stage of the game would be successful. Mr. Kane obviously has a plan and he well may have accounted for a knee jerk strike at the Home Islands. What does hitting the Home Islands do for you IF Mr. Kane does not react and sticks to his plan?
If Mr. Kane is going for AV, what would a raid on the Home Islands do to deter him from still following his game plan? While the Allied CV's are conducting a pinprick raid against some factories, Mr. Kane might be gutting Austalia with no threat from Allied forces interdicting his LOC.
Nemo always pointed out that he'd welcome an opponent's attempt to divert his attention while he simply stuck to the plan and eviscerated his opponent. I think that is sound advice.
I fail to see how a raid against the Home Islands would suddenly cause Mr. Kane to do anything differently. A landing is another story, but I doubt any Allied attempt to gain a foothold at this early stage of the game would be successful. Mr. Kane obviously has a plan and he well may have accounted for a knee jerk strike at the Home Islands. What does hitting the Home Islands do for you IF Mr. Kane does not react and sticks to his plan?
Luck is the residue of design - John Milton
Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
I thought I'd throw this in.
If Mr. Kane is going for AV, what would a raid on the Home Islands do to deter him from still following his game plan? While the Allied CV's are conducting a pinprick raid against some factories, Mr. Kane might be gutting Austalia with no threat from Allied forces interdicting his LOC.
Nemo always pointed out that he'd welcome an opponent's attempt to divert his attention while he simply stuck to the plan and eviscerated his opponent. I think that is sound advice.
I fail to see how a raid against the Home Islands would suddenly cause Mr. Kane to do anything differently. A landing is another story, but I doubt any Allied attempt to gain a foothold at this early stage of the game would be successful. Mr. Kane obviously has a plan and he well may have accounted for a knee jerk strike at the Home Islands. What does hitting the Home Islands do for you IF Mr. Kane does not react and sticks to his plan?
VPs.
I got 304 Strategic VPs on my raid, and the KB was much closer to the Home Islands. In terms of a 1943 Japanese autovictory, that makes up for 1212 Japanese VPs. Brisbane, fully built out at Port 7/AF 9, is worth 1250 VPs for Japan and 25 for the Allies. So my raid was worth .95 Fully Built Brisbanes, or 2 February 1942 Brisbanes.
And there's more to gain off the coast of Japan than just strat VPs. If he's silly enough to send trainees against the CVs, you'll get free A2A kills with your CAP and VPs that way. If he sends out what should be, with the forces now revealed, meager SAGs, you could bag some of those, too. Not to mention any shipping he may have in the area...
Sydney, on the other hand...that could be troublesome. Don't lose that one. That poses a potential problem with the HI raid, as you MAY need CVs to bring in reinforcements to Australia...
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SqzMyLemon
- Posts: 4239
- Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 2:18 pm
- Location: Alberta, Canada
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
I'm thinking Mr. Kane has read your AAR and knows the threat. A player of his caliber will have something in place for such a reaction, but if he doesn't well...
Something tells me he's not concerned with what Jocke does, but has a game plan he's going to follow to net him AV. I think that is what people are missing here. Just thought I'd offer a counterpoint to those clamouring for a raid on the Home Islands. You pulled it off against an unprepared opponent. That may not be the case here.
Something tells me he's not concerned with what Jocke does, but has a game plan he's going to follow to net him AV. I think that is what people are missing here. Just thought I'd offer a counterpoint to those clamouring for a raid on the Home Islands. You pulled it off against an unprepared opponent. That may not be the case here.
Luck is the residue of design - John Milton
Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
I can tell you one thing: Even when Tom is caught by surprise, he never panics.
I have caught him a couple of times off guard, hoping that he could overreact and make a serious mistake. He never did. Not even when I landed in the middle of the day as a bolt in a blue sky. He simply, methodically, countered me and slowed me down until he was able to form a new line and stall me.
Don't play on his mistakes. Play on your own strategy
I have caught him a couple of times off guard, hoping that he could overreact and make a serious mistake. He never did. Not even when I landed in the middle of the day as a bolt in a blue sky. He simply, methodically, countered me and slowed me down until he was able to form a new line and stall me.
Don't play on his mistakes. Play on your own strategy
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
I'm thinking Mr. Kane has read your AAR and knows the threat. A player of his caliber will have something in place for such a reaction, but if he doesn't well...
Something tells me he's not concerned with what Jocke does, but has a game plan he's going to follow to net him AV. I think that is what people are missing here. Just thought I'd offer a counterpoint to those clamouring for a raid on the Home Islands. You pulled it off against an unprepared opponent. That may not be the case here.
The possible return is high enough that I think it should at least be scouted out. I don't know how familiar Jocke is with the aerial OOB, but I'd start counting Nell/Betty and LBA IJNAF fighter units out in the field... compare that to the available OOB and you'll have a pretty good idea of what could be awaiting in Japanese waters.
My hunch, however, is that in pushing so hard for AV, MrKane will have almost everything deployed forward. With a perimeter of search, but at this point he's going to have massive gaping holes in his naval search. There just aren't enough units or enough airframes to fill out resized units to get enough search in the air to cover everything. So he's forced to choose either being blind in his AOO and the surrounding areas, or blind in spots around his perimeter or at home.
The Kuriles are a particularly large blind spot this early, with no airfields to speak of, meaning he'll need to send an AV or CS with PA or FP unit(s).
There's no reason Jocke can't both meet/mitigate the threat of losing Australia (though I think that at this point in the war anything from Brisbane north is toast, even if temporarily) and strike at MrKane's guts. MrKane has a plan for AV, sure, and Jocke should have a plan for avoiding it - in terms of what bases he needs to hold or take back before MrKane hits 4:1. There's no reason battles of attrition where even a 2:1 trade in MrKane's favor in a large enough quantity works in Jocke's favor in terms of avoiding AV. Building up Noumea, Tahiti, Auckland, Anchorage, etc., gets you only so many VPs, and honestly they can be taken away for a time (particularly Noumea). VPs for destroying units and industry can't be taken away, which I imagine is why MrKane bombed Sydney.
The Heavy Industry and Fires hits at Sydney actually lead me to think that he's not planning to cross the counterinvasion line. If I were in Jocke's position I'd still concentrate on defending Sydney/Melbourne, but I'd think the odds of MrKane marching that far south to be less than 50%. If he were going to go for Sydney, he'd be smarter to do it right away before forts can be built and before Jocke can react to a landing on the eastern coast. So rather than landing at undefended Maryborough, which is many days of marching from Sydney plus the possibility of major engagements in the Brisbane area, a thrust on Sydney would have been better served by a landing at Newcastle - despite its 6 coastal guns at start. It's entirely possible that he tries to take Sydney, but the actions as laid out so far hint towards a greater likelihood of a play for Australian LCU VPs and denial of the east coast of Australia as a VP bank for Jocke while serving as a large VP bank for MrKane, even in its present unfortified state.
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
I agree with Lokasenna on being able to start setting up a victory point grab and contesting Mr. Kanes advances in the Pacific. I think southern Oz might be attacked in late 42 or used as a trap to try and catch convoys headed there. I would work really hard on my naval search in the Pacific...to avoid future turkey shoots like what happened to those tankers a while back.
As the Allies, I would be searching for victory points and taking them anyway I can get them.
As the Allies, I would be searching for victory points and taking them anyway I can get them.
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
Sadly, most of these comments support why I think playing for points is stupid.
Whatif, you survive 1942 by 1 point only to find yourself poorly set up for 1943.
Maryborough is an interesting target, cuts the rail and main rod links north, has Fraser island offshore which can be built up to a large airbase (though a low port number), close enough to threaten Brisbane.
AFB have to learn to cover these ports or find JFB starting to target them. It probably means that 6th & 7th Aussie Divs have to head home ASAP and some investment of US Army units, just like IRL.
Whatif, you survive 1942 by 1 point only to find yourself poorly set up for 1943.
Maryborough is an interesting target, cuts the rail and main rod links north, has Fraser island offshore which can be built up to a large airbase (though a low port number), close enough to threaten Brisbane.
AFB have to learn to cover these ports or find JFB starting to target them. It probably means that 6th & 7th Aussie Divs have to head home ASAP and some investment of US Army units, just like IRL.
Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum
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offenseman
- Posts: 768
- Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 11:05 pm
- Location: Sheridan Wyoming, USA
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
+1 on points. If I played Allied there is no way I would want to invest heavily into a 1942 slaughter only to quit on 1/1/43 and never getting a chance to give some back. But opinions vary. [:)]
Sometimes things said in Nitwit sound very different in English.
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Bullwinkle58
- Posts: 11297
- Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 12:47 pm
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
ORIGINAL: JeffK
Sadly, most of these comments support why I think playing for points is stupid.
Whatif, you survive 1942 by 1 point only to find yourself poorly set up for 1943.
Maryborough is an interesting target, cuts the rail and main rod links north, has Fraser island offshore which can be built up to a large airbase (though a low port number), close enough to threaten Brisbane.
AFB have to learn to cover these ports or find JFB starting to target them. It probably means that 6th & 7th Aussie Divs have to head home ASAP and some investment of US Army units, just like IRL.
If you survive 1942 by one point you likely lose the game on 1/2/43. Auto-vic is a constant presence, not a single check on New Year's Day.
If you don't play for points you aren't playing the game. You're playing a sim, or interactive movie, or something else. It is impossible in the game design for the Allies to win by any means other than auto-vic. That means points.
The Moose
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
I look at VP as the national will to fight & think it works pretty well.
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
The game is about WW2 in the Pacific, not the first 12 0r 13 etc months. While I could understand an auto victory on the occupation of Tokyo or LA/San Francisco it wasnt a battle for all of the pissant little atolls or never heard of towns in China.
Are you suggesting the US public would have tossed it in if Chungking and a collection of tropical islands fell???
Plus, on what basis are VP awarded, a Nate is worth as much as a Zeke, a Betty or a A26???
And what formula was used to allocate VP to a base?? What decides that Palembang is worth 28pts to the JFB or Suva rated at 975pts but Rangoon is valued at 2000 for the AFB.
The VP allocation is one of the "inventions" in the game, these locations should have the value they earn through their resources, industry or strategic location on the map, not some SWAG input as play balance.
Are you suggesting the US public would have tossed it in if Chungking and a collection of tropical islands fell???
Plus, on what basis are VP awarded, a Nate is worth as much as a Zeke, a Betty or a A26???
And what formula was used to allocate VP to a base?? What decides that Palembang is worth 28pts to the JFB or Suva rated at 975pts but Rangoon is valued at 2000 for the AFB.
The VP allocation is one of the "inventions" in the game, these locations should have the value they earn through their resources, industry or strategic location on the map, not some SWAG input as play balance.
Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
Striking Industry at Newcastle seems to be sign of your opponents intentions (unless it is part of desinformation) - why bombing industry he wants to occupy?
From his moves so far one can get to these possible courses of action:
A) He wants to block everything north and destroy it... plus possibly strategic bombing of your Australian Industry ... plus interdict your LOC to Australia in the South...
B) He wants to block everything north, draw your reserves to north and effect another landing further south behind you ... plus strategic bombing
C) the same ... but go further south and occupy whole Australia (why the bombing of Newcastle then?)
So far his intentions seems to support A/B options.
IMHO your best possible course of action is to hide "Below the Line of Death" (and try to keep Brisbane if possible), put up best CAP available and sneak air/ground reinforcements, supplies and fuel to Australia for later counter...
If his carriers will remain near Australia, it may also allow you to jump his carriers by yours within range of your LBA and airfields... Carriers are big VP bonuses and loosing even 1:1 will benefit you greatly in both VPs and killing his offensive ability...
From his moves so far one can get to these possible courses of action:
A) He wants to block everything north and destroy it... plus possibly strategic bombing of your Australian Industry ... plus interdict your LOC to Australia in the South...
B) He wants to block everything north, draw your reserves to north and effect another landing further south behind you ... plus strategic bombing
C) the same ... but go further south and occupy whole Australia (why the bombing of Newcastle then?)
So far his intentions seems to support A/B options.
IMHO your best possible course of action is to hide "Below the Line of Death" (and try to keep Brisbane if possible), put up best CAP available and sneak air/ground reinforcements, supplies and fuel to Australia for later counter...
If his carriers will remain near Australia, it may also allow you to jump his carriers by yours within range of your LBA and airfields... Carriers are big VP bonuses and loosing even 1:1 will benefit you greatly in both VPs and killing his offensive ability...
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
I see Auto Victory, by the Japanese, as reflecting the political leadership deciding they can't afford to fight both Germany and Japan at the same time.
To achieve auto-victory, the Japanese need to take major territory, destroy industry, or smash the Allied fleet. All without losing too much material. Under those circumstances, it would look like the effort to defeat Japan would be a major drain on the war with Germany. The loss of Chungking might not be significant to the American population but the freeing up of 20 divisions from the defeat of China would be a concern to the Soviet and British military.
In game terms, the main effect of the threat of the Japanese auto-victory is to force the Allied player to look for places they can trade losses at no worse than a 2-1 or so ratio. It forces the Allies to fight in 1942.
I would be surprised if Tom did things to try and achieve auto-victory that messed up the long war. For example, I expect he will be running an aggressive R&D program for all years rather than sending all the supply to the front lines.
For those considering an attack on Northern Japan. Given that Tom did that very effectively at the end of February in my game, it seems unlikely he wouldn't protect against the risk.
To achieve auto-victory, the Japanese need to take major territory, destroy industry, or smash the Allied fleet. All without losing too much material. Under those circumstances, it would look like the effort to defeat Japan would be a major drain on the war with Germany. The loss of Chungking might not be significant to the American population but the freeing up of 20 divisions from the defeat of China would be a concern to the Soviet and British military.
In game terms, the main effect of the threat of the Japanese auto-victory is to force the Allied player to look for places they can trade losses at no worse than a 2-1 or so ratio. It forces the Allies to fight in 1942.
I would be surprised if Tom did things to try and achieve auto-victory that messed up the long war. For example, I expect he will be running an aggressive R&D program for all years rather than sending all the supply to the front lines.
For those considering an attack on Northern Japan. Given that Tom did that very effectively at the end of February in my game, it seems unlikely he wouldn't protect against the risk.
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JocMeister
- Posts: 8258
- Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2009 10:03 am
- Location: Sweden
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
Hi guys.
Back from the wedding. Was an absolute blast but I´m paying the price for the open bar today...ouch! Only 4 hours of sleep isn´t helping either. [>:]
I actually asked Tom what he thought about AV. He said that he thinks its a waste of time to quit the game even IF he wins by AV. This pretty much confirms Spiderys thoughts on the matter. He is planning for a long war and won´t burn himself out on an all out insane offensive just to get the AV.
Regarding a strike at the HI I´ve given it some thoughts during the drive home (thank god Maria was in shape to drive this morning). I´ve decided not do it based on several factors.
- As mentioned before I´m not in position.
- Tom is not going to fall for it. He will spot me a long way out.
- Most of the Japanese air power is currently in China and can quickly be moved to the HI when he spots me.
- At best I would gain 300-500 VPs. This can be netted elsewhere for less costs in assets. Tom gets that back in 3-6 days of strat bombing in OZ.
- I will probably need my CVs to get reinforcements to OZ
- I still believe OZ/SOPAC will be the deciding theater. I wan´t my assets here and not in NOPAC.
- I´m not prepared to risk my CVs against LBA in such a critical time.
I like the idea of an HI strike. But in order for it to work and minimal risk you need total surprise. I know Tom will spot me closing in. Besides my CVs are currently already steaming straight into danger. Not going to turn them back now. [:)]
Regarding Toms intentions in OZ I think he will do as Barb describes in option A. He is not going to try for a full occupation of OZ. Not unless I open myself up to him. He has good recon of Sydney and knows whats there. I think he will simply take all the easy VPs (its ALOT of VPs) he can from STRAT bombing. At least to start with.
Okay, have to try and catch some sleep now before Ida wakes up! [>:]
Back from the wedding. Was an absolute blast but I´m paying the price for the open bar today...ouch! Only 4 hours of sleep isn´t helping either. [>:]
I actually asked Tom what he thought about AV. He said that he thinks its a waste of time to quit the game even IF he wins by AV. This pretty much confirms Spiderys thoughts on the matter. He is planning for a long war and won´t burn himself out on an all out insane offensive just to get the AV.
Regarding a strike at the HI I´ve given it some thoughts during the drive home (thank god Maria was in shape to drive this morning). I´ve decided not do it based on several factors.
- As mentioned before I´m not in position.
- Tom is not going to fall for it. He will spot me a long way out.
- Most of the Japanese air power is currently in China and can quickly be moved to the HI when he spots me.
- At best I would gain 300-500 VPs. This can be netted elsewhere for less costs in assets. Tom gets that back in 3-6 days of strat bombing in OZ.
- I will probably need my CVs to get reinforcements to OZ
- I still believe OZ/SOPAC will be the deciding theater. I wan´t my assets here and not in NOPAC.
- I´m not prepared to risk my CVs against LBA in such a critical time.
I like the idea of an HI strike. But in order for it to work and minimal risk you need total surprise. I know Tom will spot me closing in. Besides my CVs are currently already steaming straight into danger. Not going to turn them back now. [:)]
Regarding Toms intentions in OZ I think he will do as Barb describes in option A. He is not going to try for a full occupation of OZ. Not unless I open myself up to him. He has good recon of Sydney and knows whats there. I think he will simply take all the easy VPs (its ALOT of VPs) he can from STRAT bombing. At least to start with.
Okay, have to try and catch some sleep now before Ida wakes up! [>:]
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
ORIGINAL: JeffK
Are you suggesting the US public would have tossed it in if Chungking and a collection of tropical islands fell???
That's what Japan believed. It was the basis of their decision to launch the attack on the US.
I don't imagine AV for Japan meaning a victory parade. I think it means they sign a mutual peace with the US that lets them regain access to resources.
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
ORIGINAL: offenseman
+1 on points. If I played Allied there is no way I would want to invest heavily into a 1942 slaughter only to quit on 1/1/43 and never getting a chance to give some back. But opinions vary. [:)]
It is possible to continue on after the AV screen.
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
ORIGINAL: Barb
Striking Industry at Newcastle seems to be sign of your opponents intentions (unless it is part of desinformation) - why bombing industry he wants to occupy?
From his moves so far one can get to these possible courses of action:
A) He wants to block everything north and destroy it... plus possibly strategic bombing of your Australian Industry ... plus interdict your LOC to Australia in the South...
B) He wants to block everything north, draw your reserves to north and effect another landing further south behind you ... plus strategic bombing
C) the same ... but go further south and occupy whole Australia (why the bombing of Newcastle then?)
So far his intentions seems to support A/B options.
IMHO your best possible course of action is to hide "Below the Line of Death" (and try to keep Brisbane if possible), put up best CAP available and sneak air/ground reinforcements, supplies and fuel to Australia for later counter...
If his carriers will remain near Australia, it may also allow you to jump his carriers by yours within range of your LBA and airfields... Carriers are big VP bonuses and loosing even 1:1 will benefit you greatly in both VPs and killing his offensive ability...
I think A is what's going on here, but you're on point with the B/C possibilities as well.
RE: Japanese land in OZ!!
ORIGINAL: Amoral
That's what Japan believed. It was the basis of their decision to launch the attack on the US.
I don't imagine AV for Japan meaning a victory parade. I think it means they sign a mutual peace with the US that lets them regain access to resources.
Japan, felt they would have to give up quite a lot to make peace....compromise very heavily. It was a model they had used very successfully in the past. Why would this time be any different. Surprise attack, war, decisive battle, negotiated peace.
Australia could have easily bowed out and sought a separate peace....if that were the case Britain might make peace with Japan so Australia stayed in the fight against Germany and they retained most of their empire.
The concept of total war and unconditional surrender was not followed historically, the opposite happened...a negotiated peace.