Return of the Sheep! - JocMeister(A) vs. MrKane(J)

[BBfanboy]

I suspect a move on NZ to cut off aid from the US to Aus.

[KenchiSulla]

Or perhaps it is more simple then that. Reduce your ability to search that part of the ocean. Norfolk's location is pretty strategic. Would be very interesting if he does try to come for Auckland.. What do you have on the island?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I suspect a move on NZ to cut off aid from the US to Aus.

I read this on my phone two hours ago, thought "NZ", then waited to say anything until I was on the box. You beat me to it. [:)]

Aid cut-off is one thing, but if he's going for auto-vic NZ is a nice haul of VPs at a lot less risk and work than SE Oz. He'll activate the emergency reinforcement package, but it comes in far away and the VPs are right away. Or he could be looking to bomb more industry. He won't get VPs for that, but he might not care, or even know. I don't recall any game where NZ industry was attacked.

[JocMeister]

Not impossible. But he is running out of time. Only 15 days left of the Amphib bonus. Then he will have to do it the old fashion way. I have no prepp for anything outside China lately.

I just don´t get it. He just stopped after he landed at Brisbane. I´m just waiting for a massive landing somewhere right now. I had thought it would have come by now but nothing. [&:] I know he has 3 IDs in SOPAC. One is just sitting at Noumea. One is in OZ. Where is the 3rd? A good guess would be OZ. I also miss two IDs from Java. 2 went to Burma and one is still on Java. So 2 IDs are doing nothing right now or in transit somewhere...

NOPAC and Gilberts are still untouched. If I were him I would prefer to land in the Gilberts before the Amphib bonus expires. But with the KB in SOPAC that looks very unlikely... I feel like I´m missing a giant piece of the puzzle. Surely he can´t be done with his expansion? [&:]

EDIT: Just got the next turn. Looks like another raid towards NZ. No troop ships...yet!

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] 16th of March -42 [/font]
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Some TFs in SOPAC are in jeopardy.

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China
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Not much to report here. Tom suicides a small unit across the river to Sian to open the hexside. Worked well for him because my troops are so disrupted right now I took more losses then he! [X(]

Ground combat at Sian (83,41)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 4477 troops, 231 guns, 438 vehicles, Assault Value = 1131

Defending force 82674 troops, 495 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1328

Japanese adjusted assault: 0

Allied adjusted defense: 490 Horrible adjusted AV! [X(]

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 99 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: preparation(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
808 casualties reported
Squads: 39 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 7 (2 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1177 casualties reported
Squads: 46 destroyed, 39 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 17 (7 destroyed, 10 disabled)

I manage to reinforce the rivercrossing. That will hopefully buy me time enough for the troops in the North to get out. Fingers crossed.

Not looking good in the south and center though...

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SOPAC
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The same turn I spotted the KB approaching Norfolk Isl. I stopped unloading and sent TFs at NZ away. Problem is that I had to refuel 3 of them losing a full day. Sensing this Tom made a full speed dash south. He might catch some prey this time around...luckily the CA TF with full fuel tanks can sprint away. Will probably lose the rest though. Mostly small ships but the bigger xAK TF is also likely a goner. I have two slow AVPs here too that I really don´t want to lose.

Bummer... [:(]

On the positive side this have allowed me to refuel my CVs, unload the last troops at Pago Pago and Savaii and fill up the fuel stocks at Pago Pago.

Two big troop convoys also passed by only 2 weeks ago as did a 120k supply convoy. So it could have been a lot worse...

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Philippines
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Things are deteriorating fast as almost 200 bombers are hitting Manila each day. Bataan has fallen and I expect the BBs to show up any day now.

[JocMeister]

Tonight's music:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dy6MpsDPKts

How can you not love this. Tarja and Sharon in the same song. Yummy!

Tonight's drinking:
http://www.masterofmalt.com/whiskies/ar ... es-whisky/

Got really, really lucky and got my hands on this one. Very, very hard to come by! [&o]

[JocMeister]

Hmm, just got one of these. What does it do? Provide shore party?

[Lowpe]

Ever think of just hiding in the port with some of those ships?

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] 17th of March -42 [/font]
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Turns are just flying. 7th one today I think! [X(]

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SOPAC
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Got lucky and the KB turned around. Did he get a whiff of my CVs? No DL and nothing spotted that I can see...hmm. Some crucial information this turn.

Brisbane expands airfield to size 7

This tells me he intends to stay in OZ or he wouldn´t waste supply on expanding the AF. Its quite possible the "missing" 2 IDs have been diverted here. That would give him 4 IDs plus at least 1 tank RGT. Enough to stop my planned offensive but far from enough to threaten OZ proper.

AV at Sydney is up to 1600 and Melbourne 1100. Add to that the 6th OZ ID that hasn´t railed in yet...

The newly arrived AA units make a "small" dent in the Japanese bomber formations as 24 are shot down over Newcastle. Strategic losses just passed 3000... [:(]

[Lowpe]

how do you do 7 turns in one day? Do you pay attention to the replay at all?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

[font="Verdana"] 17th of March -42 [/font]
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Turns are just flying. 7th one today I think! [X(]

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SOPAC
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Got lucky and the KB turned around. Did he get a whiff of my CVs? No DL and nothing spotted that I can see...hmm. Some crucial information this turn.

Brisbane expands airfield to size 7

This tells me he intends to stay in OZ or he wouldn´t waste supply on expanding the AF. Its quite possible the "missing" 2 IDs have been diverted here. That would give him 4 IDs plus at least 1 tank RGT. Enough to stop my planned offensive but far from enough to threaten OZ proper.

AV at Sydney is up to 1600 and Melbourne 1100. Add to that the 6th OZ ID that hasn´t railed in yet...

The newly arrived AA units make a "small" dent in the Japanese bomber formations as 24 are shot down over Newcastle. Strategic losses just passed 3000... [:(]

Looks like you're solid in OZ. H may come, and if he does you'll get the nice benefit of the reinforcements, and I think you'll be okay. I bet he'll stay back, use that big air field and bomb away.

You're pretty good at defending big bases fro what i remember, so I think you'll figure this one out. Be patient and chip away. He'l maybe get some VPs but he's had to use a lot of resources to get there and will use a lot more if he wants to stay and bomb the industry.

At least at this pace I'll be able to get tips from your AAR about the endgame way before we get there! [:D]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
Ever think of just hiding in the port with some of those ships?

That usually backfires for me and I lose all ships at port. So I tend to try and avoid that. [:)]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

how do you do 7 turns in one day? Do you pay attention to the replay at all?

Naaaah...well sort of! [:D] Its 90% Japanese air bombings and ground bombardments and those I just ESC. I put message speed at 0.5 and that gives me just enough time to follow recon and NavS. I takes me about 2-4 minutes watching the replay and then 10-15 minutes doing the turn. Don´t ask me how Tom makes it though! He usually sends them back within the hour! [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Looks like you're solid in OZ. H may come, and if he does you'll get the nice benefit of the reinforcements, and I think you'll be okay. I bet he'll stay back, use that big air field and bomb away.

You're pretty good at defending big bases fro what i remember, so I think you'll figure this one out. Be patient and chip away. He'l maybe get some VPs but he's had to use a lot of resources to get there and will use a lot more if he wants to stay and bomb the industry.

At least at this pace I'll be able to get tips from your AAR about the endgame way before we get there! [:D]

I sure hope I´m solid. With the UH terrain and huge amounts of arty and supply backed up by level 5 forts I feel pretty safe. Especially as all heavy Japanese heavy arty is in China.

For now I´ll hunker down in Sydney Melbourne. But I have some things going on at his flanks with expendable troops that are due to withdraw. If he comes I will be as ready as I can be. [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] 20th of March -42 [/font]
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China is deteriorating rapidly.

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China
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I don´t know how Tom did it but his troops have already crossed into the last wooden hex. I´m scrambling to get troops and possible close the hex side. But against 3 IDs there is next to nothing I can do.

I went back 10-15 turns to see if the troops were visible but they never where. One minute they was just there despite a British Recon unit keeping a constant watch over any moment. Then he shifted hex again in just a couple of turns with a full ID.

A breakthrough into the Chunking basin seems inevitable at this point. But I won´t give up the treeline just yet. I´ll do my best to contain the breakthrough.

Sian fell on the first attack. Taking 2000-3000 losses per day from bombardments and airstrikes had shot all supply and DIS was around 80 among many units. Losses were horrific.

Ground combat at Sian (83,41)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 47675 troops, 569 guns, 770 vehicles, Assault Value = 1436

Defending force 79221 troops, 464 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1126

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 2

Japanese adjusted assault: 1506

Allied adjusted defense: 321 [:(]

Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Sian !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1355 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 96 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 17 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 23 disabled
Vehicles lost 43 (2 destroyed, 41 disabled)
Units pursuing 1

Allied ground losses:
24181 casualties reported
Squads: 775 destroyed, 21 disabled
Non Combat: 925 destroyed, 71 disabled
Engineers: 216 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 119 (97 destroyed, 22 disabled)
Units retreated 21
Units destroyed 1

The Japanese air force is now pounding the evicted troops causing over 2000 casualties per turn despite the terrain.

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SOPAC
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Half of KB moves towards Fiji but then disappears again on the 18th. Don´t know if he turned back or passed through my NavS. I may now have a fox in the hen house.

Strat bombing has ceased after the heavy AA losses a couple of days back.

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SIGINT
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I found one of the missing ID (46th?) at Cebu. So 2 still missing. No clue where they are. Also nothing to give an inkling on the next Japanese move. But he has to do something? Right?

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] Here we go! [/font]
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This just in. So Tom is coming straight for the Samoas. This will be the battle that decides the war. I have prepared as well as possible but is it enough? It depends on how much he brings...now I can only wait and see.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] 23th of March -42 [/font]
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Just when I think I figured stuff out...

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SOPAC
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Instead of the KB moving East toward Fiji and the Samoas Tom again turns SW into the Tasman sea. I don´t get it. [&:] There is absolutely NOTHING here. Only thing I can think of is a small TF of 6 xAKs and a PC that left OZ for NZ gave away some radio chatter. They are just South of Tasmania and I turned them due West.

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China
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Usual bombardments. Looks like more units are moving towards the gap in my lines in the South. My units at the rivercrossing are taking an absolute pounding with over 200 casualties every day. [:(]

Another Jap ID just moved in. He will attack shortly I´m sure.

Ground combat at 81,39 (near Tienshui)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 5934 troops, 421 guns, 522 vehicles, Assault Value = 1045

Defending force 33949 troops, 261 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 774

Allied ground losses:
237 casualties reported
Squads: 7 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Assaulting units:
17th Division
110th Division
3rd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
2nd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
4th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
Botanko Hvy Gun Regiment
6th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
8th Mountain Gun Regiment
22nd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
10th Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
75th Chinese Corps
68th Chinese Corps
82nd Chinese Corps
4th Heavy Mortar Regiment
3rd Heavy Mortar Regiment
Jingcha War Area
41st AA Regiment

[topeverest]

need more intel before you can determine if he is just opportunistically hunting or something else. I think you know it is a dangerous time to engage KB if it is whole. IMHO, flood patrol planes to the region and get good naval intel, so you can determine if you can counterpulse with CV's or just surface ships.

At this point, he has to know that you know those CV's are there. Is it an empire trick or isn't it. That is the question.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
This will be the battle that decides the war.

I don't think that is correct.[:-]

You should be in relatively good shape to fight him there if you want to. I think that is an island too far given your ship strength still left to you.

Let him keep burning oil and fuel.[:D]

Double check your search.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: topeverest

need more intel before you can determine if he is just opportunistically hunting or something else. I think you know it is a dangerous time to engage KB if it is whole. IMHO, flood patrol planes to the region and get good naval intel, so you can determine if you can counterpulse with CV's or just surface ships.

At this point, he has to know that you know those CV's are there. Is it an empire trick or isn't it. That is the question.

My feeling is leaning towards a trick right now. For the second day in a row I´m just getting CVEs listed and a very low plane count...could be a MKB moving to lure my CVs out.

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
This will be the battle that decides the war.

I don't think that is correct.[:-]

You should be in relatively good shape to fight him there if you want to. I think that is an island too far given your ship strength still left to you.

Let him keep burning oil and fuel.[:D]

Double check your search.

In a sense I think I´m right. IF (a big IF) Tom manages to kick me off the Samoans he will take out about 50% of the total allied unrestricted AV. He will also make it more or less impossible for me to recapture the high multiplier bases in the area (Samoans, Fiji, Noumea, Luganville) before 42 is up. That will most likely mean a Japanese AV. So in that sense I do believe this will decide the war.

As you say I´m in a good shape to put up a fight here. I have been preparing here since day one. Most of the allied power is invested here and its pretty much as far from the HI you can get. So from that perspective its the best possible spot for me to fight in right now. With the end of the Amphib bonus fast approaching there is a good chance Tom has underestimated the Allied strength here. With only 6 days left he can´t just turn around and pick up a couple of more IDs if he needs them and dump them. But he will need to wait for prepp which will give me another 100 days to prepare and cause mischief. [:)]

Unless he is coming with all he has I feel pretty secure. He would need 4-6 IDs and KB on constant watch to kick me off the islands.

Finger crossed. Still no sign of the invasion. 40 subs are blanketing the area. All merchant shipping is evacuated and I´m as ready as I can be. [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] 26th of March -42 [/font]
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Starting to get really worried now...

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SOPAC
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Okay, nothing has materialized. That TF going into the Tasman sea is definitively not KB. For 3 days in a row now I have gotten only CVEs and CS ships and very low plane numbers. No more SIGINT after the Savaii note 4-5 days back.

I´m starting to wonder if Tom has fooled me completely. What if OZ/SOPAC is just a feint? Grab the Strat points, make me invest heavily and then go somewhere else?

Nothing makes sense right now. Amphib bonus is gone in 4 days. He hasn´t landed in the Gilbers, Makin, NOPAC, Darwin, Northern OZ or even Timor?! There are loads of smaller bases all over the DEI he has still left to land on. Burma is only now being secured. He just secured PM this turn for crying out loud?!

What am I missing? [&:] I think its highly unlikely he botched something that set him back two months. He is way too experienced for that. This have to be intentional but I just can´t figure out what he is planning to do. A move on India would be too late right now. Too many Indian troops have arrived together with the RAF. Too long to dig in. NOPAC/Canada? More strat points trying to bomb the WC? Too late now with US pilots properly trained. Or is he simply going to try a more defensive strategy? But if that is the case why not grab NOPAC and the Gilbers to buy time?

I don´t get it...I´m missing something big...

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China
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Tom is pouring troops into the gap in the South. My river crossing block is being worn down faster and faster. A DA ended up with 1:1 although heavier Japanese losses. The troops on the road to Ankang repulsed another attack with good results but are now in danger of being surrounded.

Oh, a good day in the skies above Broken Hill as 3 AA units have a field day with attacking Nells/Bettys. (Don´t bomb from 3000ft in DBB)