Return of the Sheep! - JocMeister(A) vs. MrKane(J)

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

You can still get sig int on the units loading on the Fast Transport, and I believe that even though Fast Transport may avoid CD gunfire it can still suffer disruption upon landing? Also, they are typically transported with little or no supply, which can be really rough. FT TFs have their uses, but the initial wave of a truly contested landing isn't really one of them, IMO. Or even the second wave.

Not to be used as the first wave of a contested landing, but rather a small neglected base. IJA paratroops are only 30 AV...but can be really useful if you don't want to wait 100 days for an offensive.

[offenseman]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Your two air attacks drained his supply enough to give him some malus -- probably more than you think.[:)]

In that area of China, it is awful difficult and slow to keep IJA supplied for offensive actions, especially if he is bombing a lot.

Do what you can to target his supplies in this area...that is his weak link here.

Agreed. He has been pushing very hard and the movement along with the near constant combat has used a lot of supply. And remember the upside of a retreat, every hex nearer Chungking tends to be another hex that is hard to route supply through. So his supply situation gets worse as he advances (up there anyway). That terrain and offensive tempo will help him get units in the red. The more he moves and shoots, the worse it may become. He can only move SO many supplies a turn through some of those hexes. As lowpe said, finds ways to make him use supply.

As I said earlier, that supply(-) even if only one unit in the attack can be an indicator of a supply problem. That possibility is a possible bright spot anyway!! [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: aztez
...but it seems that you are still holding out at Changhsa region and I assume there are substantial AV values there just sitting around.

Maybe to consider pulling out from there and make a new perimeter closer to Chungking. What's that base behind the river in central region.

You most likely can pull out substantial force and still have strong new defensive line there. Also his supply routes would become longer and tougher to maintain the push.

Just an thought since Changhsa is lost cause anyways if the northern flank falls...

Hi aztez. [:)]

Already did that about 2 months ago. Its just a skeleton crew down there right now. Less then 1000 AV now for everything south of Chunking! [X(]

ORIGINAL: offenseman

He got a supply (-) on that attack. Very nice news there.

He is building up BFs in Batavia? I've lost track of the map, has he taken Christmas Island IO yet? If not he may be aiming to do so soon.

Yupp! He landed about 2 weeks ago. I think he may be dumping the BFs intended for Soerabaja once that falls. It will very shortly!

I would do the CV upgrades ASAP. They are important AA upgrades for your Yorktowns. The 3/42 Lexington upgrades...have you not done those yet? They may not appear to be an upgrade by the numbers, but if you compare the devices you'll see that it's a pretty clear upgrade.

More important than that...upgrading them will preclude you from wanting to use them in some move of folly, as they will be unavailable [:D].
[/quote]

Yeah, I´m actually considering pulling the entire fleet back for the 4/42 upgrades. It pretty much means leaving everything on its own for a while but there are not much left to be done right now. No major troops convoys are moving besides 2 BFs + 1 AA unit for OZ. Also want to make the 4/42 upgrade on the merchant fleet. The extra AA might mean something. [:)]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Your two air attacks drained his supply enough to give him some malus -- probably more than you think.[:)]

In that area of China, it is awful difficult and slow to keep IJA supplied for offensive actions, especially if he is bombing a lot.

Do what you can to target his supplies in this area...that is his weak link here.

I hope you are right about supply. I could REALLY need a breather in China... 2-10 bombardments/attacks every day now since the first week.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] Allied Planning for 1942 [/font]
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With the end of the Japanese Amphib bonus and possibly the end of Japanese expansion its time to set some goals to strive for. I have found that it helps me get organized and more focused rather then to have just s vague idea on what to do. So I usually put the goals down on print and I then use them as a bible for what I do during the time.

This will not be something ambitious. As Loka so kindly reminds me ([;)]) its still 1942. Its not the best time for the allies for a grand offensive. We have seen players try that but it usually fizzles due to lack of planes, ships and replacements.

This is my "bible" for 1942. Its not set in stone of course and will depend a lot on what Tom does and doesn´t do. If he goes all in for SOPAC I will possibly shift priority from the Pacific to the IO instead.

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Number 1 priority
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Dont loose the Navy!
Clear Eastern OZ of Japanese forces.

I don´t think this will be much of a problem because I doubt Tom will fight for it. He has harvested 3500 VPs already and this will grow to possible 4000 or even 5000 before I can counter attack. He has gotten what he came for and I don´t think he will fight to retain a foothold.

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Number 2 priority
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Recapture Noumea

This may very well turn out to be impossible if Tom decides to put up a fight here. All he needs is to park the KB in the area and I can do very little but look on from afar. But if he does other opportunities will open up...

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Lower priority
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Recapture the Ellice islands (Invaded on the 1st of April)
Recapture the Gilberts
Establish a presence in NOPAC
Build up the necessary infrastructure in Southern India to support an offensive in early 43.
Hold on to the Andamans

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JockMeister

Recapture Noumea

This may very well turn out to be impossible if Tom decides to put up a fight here. All he needs is to park the KB in the area and I can do very little but look on from afar. But if he does other opportunities will open up...

One thing you can do in this case is bring every US sub, especially the S-boats, into the region. Although they may not hit much, it can cause a considerable amount of anxiety to see twenty subs in range to the KB, especially if they get an attack or tow against something important. One hit down here and it's a long road back to the Home Islands.

[Encircled]

Remember that your opponent will know the upgrade dates for your carriers as well.

If he's going for Samoa, then he might be waiting for that.

[Lokasenna]

Best of luck holding the Andamans. Unless you can get Blair's AF built up, it's pretty much impossible to hold with 1 AF against several capable of bombing you out. And if he sees you building up Blair's AF, he should come for you hard and fast.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] 2nd of April -42 [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Small success on Java and good news from China!

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China
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Lets start here. The 2 IDs that caused me so much headache impaled themselves in a desperate last attack on the 1st of April. [&o]

Ground combat at 81,40 (near Ankang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 36133 troops, 431 guns, 361 vehicles, Assault Value = 1072

Defending force 16736 troops, 118 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 297

Japanese adjusted assault: 574

Allied adjusted defense: 589

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), morale(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2749 casualties reported
Squads: 25 destroyed, 143 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 9 destroyed, 22 disabled
Guns lost 27 (5 destroyed, 22 disabled)
Vehicles lost 9 (1 destroyed, 8 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
285 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 23 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 10 (5 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Assaulting units:
15th Division
37th Division
3rd Ind.Mixed Brigade

Defending units:
18th Chinese Corps
84th Chinese Corps
3rd Heavy Mortar Regiment

I should be safe here for a couple of days as I managed to insert 4 small shattered Corps behind his back actually completely cutting the troops off. Tom already have units moving to clear the way but it will take a couple of days.

The roadblock toward Ankang will have to make an attempt to withdraw. Supply is almost completely out and I can´t get any there.

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Java
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More good news here as the Japanese assault is once again repulsed! He will wear me down but he will need more time.

Ground combat at Soerabaja (56,104)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 5172 troops, 50 guns, 16 vehicles, Assault Value = 154

Defending force 8338 troops, 59 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 175

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 2

Japanese adjusted assault: 67

Allied adjusted defense: 90

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 2)

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), leaders(-), experience(-)
Attacker: leaders(+), disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
439 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 25 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled

Allied ground losses:
56 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
2nd/A Division

Defending units:
Roodenburg Battalion
Marinier Battalion
2nd KNIL Landstorm Battalion
3rd KNIL Landstorm Battalion
Afdeling Ritman
Van Altena Battalion
Soerabaja Defenses
NI-MLD
Soerabaja KM Base Force
Madoeng Defenses

Ground combat at Madioen (54,104)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 12443 troops, 285 guns, 101 vehicles, Assault Value = 916

Defending force 10408 troops, 86 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 235

Japanese adjusted assault: 163

Allied adjusted defense: 145

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 0

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), preparation(-), morale(-)
experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1003 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 57 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled

Allied ground losses:
124 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 15 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
2nd/B Division
56th Division
2nd/C Division
1st RF Gun Battalion
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Mortar Battalion
25th Army
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
5th Mortar Battalion
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
4th KNIL Regiment
Lijfwacht Cav Sqn
Barisan KNIL Regiment
Tjilatjap KNIL Battalion
6th KNIL Regiment
3/2nd Avn Sup Afd
2/4th Avn Sup Afd
1/4th Avn Sup Afd
Semarang Base Force
3/4th Avn Sup Afd
Mobiele Eenheid Battalion
Tjilitap KM Base Force
Andir ML Base Force
7th Avn Sup Afd

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SOPAC
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Tom lands on Vaitupu on the Ellice islands on the very last day of the bonus. So he now have a foothold there and in the Gilberts. Both were taken by a lone NavGuard unit. Question is will he reinforce with more or just leave them as a delaying action.

MKB shows up NW of NZ heading East. For now no Allied shipping is in danger. I have a big convoy heading for Tahiti as well as an empty supply TF leaving NZ. I may turn them around depending on what course he keeps. This leads to the big question: Where is the KB?

Did he use them to cover the landing in the Gilberts/Ellice or have they moved elsewhere. I want to know as it will tell me his next move.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: obvert
One thing you can do in this case is bring every US sub, especially the S-boats, into the region. Although they may not hit much, it can cause a considerable amount of anxiety to see twenty subs in range to the KB, especially if they get an attack or tow against something important. One hit down here and it's a long road back to the Home Islands.

I already have the bulk of Allied subs here including most of the Dutch and the S-Boats. [:)]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Remember that your opponent will know the upgrade dates for your carriers as well.

If he's going for Samoa, then he might be waiting for that.

Yeah, but he will need to bring the full KB for that. And if he does my navy will have to stand aside and watch anyway.

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
Best of luck holding the Andamans. Unless you can get Blair's AF built up, it's pretty much impossible to hold with 1 AF against several capable of bombing you out. And if he sees you building up Blair's AF, he should come for you hard and fast.

Yupp, not much chance of that happening. But I may drop some BDEs and engineers and start working on the forts if I´m given the opportunity.

[Encircled]

Yeah, but he will need to bring the full KB for that. And if he does my navy will have to stand aside and watch anyway.

I thought that it was your "line in the sand"

Carriers + LBA + SCTF gives you your best chance of inflicting damage on him

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Encircled
I thought that it was your "line in the sand"

Carriers + LBA + SCTF gives you your best chance of inflicting damage on him

Yes but I will avoid a direct confrontation with the KB. For now... [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] 4th of April -42 [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

The success on Java was short lived!

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China
------------------------
Both the river crossing roadblock and the Ankang roadblock is crumbling fast. Both of them can fall any day now.

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Java
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A second Japanese ID roll in at Madioen and crushes the defenders. I wasn´t prepared and lost a bunch of planes on the ground. Not that I can use them anywhere else but its unnecessary VPs to lose.

Ground combat at Madioen (54,104)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 31568 troops, 478 guns, 176 vehicles, Assault Value = 858

Defending force 10240 troops, 86 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 219

Japanese adjusted assault: 402

Allied adjusted defense: 178

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Madioen !!!

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
75A-7 Hawk: 8 destroyed
CW-21B Demon: 8 destroyed
B-339D: 7 destroyed
L-18 Lodestar: 12 destroyed

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
295 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 51 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled

Allied ground losses:
7801 casualties reported
Squads: 205 destroyed, 26 disabled
Non Combat: 274 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 23 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 25 (15 destroyed, 10 disabled)
Units retreated 10
Units destroyed 3

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MKB
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Still heading due East towards the Fijis. Could be an interesting day tomorrow as it will pass straight through a blobb of 9 subs. Only 2 of which has a low DL...fingers crossed for a lucky day!

No screen today. Forgot to take one and I´m to lazy to download the turn again. [:)]

[Sangeli]

That flanking maneuver in China that the IJA is attempting is likely not going to accomplish much. Because he has no roads he lacks the ability to change the focal point of his attack without giving you time to react. The Japanese movement along the dirt road to the north leading to the Chungking basin is more of a concern. Why have your units lingered so long on the Ankang road south of that junction? Had they pulled back earlier they could be defending along the main axis leading toward the Chungking basin rather than out of supply and nearly cut off.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

That flanking maneuver in China that the IJA is attempting is likely not going to accomplish much. Because he has no roads he lacks the ability to change the focal point of his attack without giving you time to react. The Japanese movement along the dirt road to the north leading to the Chungking basin is more of a concern. Why have your units lingered so long on the Ankang road south of that junction? Had they pulled back earlier they could be defending along the main axis leading toward the Chungking basin rather than out of supply and nearly cut off.

Because trying to move out means leaving the forts. [:)] They would be wiped out before they could shift hex.

EDIT: Explained in the China post below this one. [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] Invasion Fleet spotted! [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

So he is coming after all!

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] China [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

As of the 6th of April allied positions are crumbling. The roadblock towards Ankang is finally overcome. This was mainly due to a mistake on my part. I tried pulling them back towards Ankang. This meant leaving their forts and Tom immediately spotted this when his bombardments went from 10-30 casualties to 2-300. He quickly turned his airforce on the stack and then two DAs did the trick.

Half the units in this stack had 0 supply. This seems to the standard from now on. [:(]

Ground combat at 83,44 (near Ankang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 42615 troops, 919 guns, 580 vehicles, Assault Value = 901

Defending force 25595 troops, 168 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 442

Japanese adjusted assault: 725

Allied adjusted defense: 259

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), fatigue(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
758 casualties reported
Squads: 14 destroyed, 30 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 23 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 2 disabled
Vehicles lost 43 (10 destroyed, 33 disabled)
Units pursuing 1

Allied ground losses:
8499 casualties reported
Squads: 124 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 141 destroyed, 15 disabled
Engineers: 14 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 27 (21 destroyed, 6 disabled)
Units retreated 6

I have been able to insert units in the woods to the West but most of the units have been unable to draw supply. The river crossing roadblock is also crumbling fast. After this attack all units are left with 0 supply. The next DA will dislodge them. They will then retreat into the next hex causing overstack there which will burn what little supply I have there. Can´t do anything about that. [:(]

Ground combat at 81,39 (near Tienshui)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 41230 troops, 782 guns, 629 vehicles, Assault Value = 866

Defending force 31173 troops, 182 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 503

Japanese adjusted assault: 511

Allied adjusted defense: 274

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
857 casualties reported
Squads: 11 destroyed, 69 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 11 (1 destroyed, 10 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
427 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 36 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 4 (3 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Assaulting units:
17th Division
110th Division
6th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
20th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
Botanko Hvy Gun Regiment
22nd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
8th Mountain Gun Regiment
3rd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
2nd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
4th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
5th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
10th Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
75th Chinese Corps
68th Chinese Corps
82nd Chinese Corps
84th Chinese Corps
4th Heavy Mortar Regiment
Jingcha War Area
41st AA Regiment

Interesting to note here is how the adjusted AV has went from over 2200 down to 250 in just 3 weeks. The constant pressure is wearing them down. Tom has 18 units behind the river and can easily rotate troops in and out.

This is pretty identical to my other PBEMs. You can hold for a while but supply is dwindling from day 1 and once it runs out its pretty much game over.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] Strategic bombing of OZ [/font]
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After Toms run in with the allied AA he moves his bombers up to 18k. This almost completely eliminates losses from AA without any noticeable effect on results. [:(]

But we have some success nonetheless...Probably believing the Allied air force have been broken in Oz Tom switches from Sweep to Escort with his Zeroes. He then starts bombing the Sydney industry for two days straight.

After the second day the allies move in.

Morning Air attack on Sydney , at 90,167

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 76 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 30 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 28
G3M2 Nell x 69

Allied aircraft
Kittyhawk IA x 16
P-39D Airacobra x 44

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 3 destroyed
G3M2 Nell: 14 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-39D Airacobra: 1 destroyed

Resources hits 6
Fires 793

[size=1]Morning Air attack on Sydney , at 90,167

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 34 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 44
G3M2 Nell x 36

Allied aircraft
Kittyhawk IA x 8
P-39D Airacobra x 19

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 6 destroyed, 4 damaged
G3M2 Nell: 1 destroyed by flak

No Allied losses

Fires 723[/size]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] Invasion of the Samoans [/font]
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Tom is going in completely blind here. He doesn´t know what I have in terms of LCUs as not a single recon mission has flown over any base. So either he is taking a gamble or he is bringing A LOT of troops.

I find it hard to believe he is bringing only the MKB. I´m pretty certain the full KB has to be lurking in the shadows. So far I can only see one invasion TF so it doesn´t look a full blown invasion. Yet...

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Allied response
------------------------
...will be limited for now. At least until I get a clearer picture of how earnest he is. I´ve stopped the CVs for now and they are just 2-3 days out. I´ve also readied reinforcements. The 6th and 7th Marine RGT together with the 24th Infantry RGT are all being loaded on +20 knot transports. I´ll not dispatch them yet though.

The 25th ID is also being readied. I rather not use this ID though as I have other things in mind for them. 75 Fighters and 32 DBs are also ready to be flown in.

All subs in the vicinity have been recalled towards Pago Pago.

Now I´ll just have to wait and see. But I´m cautiously optimistic for now. This TF has been on its way for a long time (SIGINT 2-3 weeks ago). Its quite possible the troops have low prepp. I also got some positive SIGINT this turn.

33rd/B Division is located at Noumea(115,160).
38th Division is located at Rockhampton(95,152)

This means that unless he has moved some IDs from Java to SOPAC the maximum he can bring is 1 full ID + 2/3rds of an ID. That I can deal with.

My best hope right now is that he hasn´t brought enough. That will force him to commit more forces but with the Amphib bonus gone he will have to wait for prepp. This will give me good amount of time to dig in, reinforce, train and plan for the interception of the next landing.

[obvert]

Nice trap at Sydney. That is a lot of Netties (and pilots) plus kills for your guys. The equation will change quickly with those kinds of kill numbers going to one side's pilots. Suddenly you'll have a very good defensive air force there.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Nice trap at Sydney. That is a lot of Netties (and pilots) plus kills for your guys. The equation will change quickly with those kinds of kill numbers going to one side's pilots. Suddenly you'll have a very good defensive air force there.

Yeah, it went better then expected! I really need to get the EXP up for my fighter pilots. I had forgotten those nasty Japanese prewar pilots! On 32k sweeps his Zeroes just chew through anything I throw at them. I´m eagerly awaiting the arrival of the first P38s...