Return of the Sheep! - JocMeister(A) vs. MrKane(J)

[obvert]

With PDU-off you get a grand total of ... yes! All of 24 ([X(]) usable P-38E! Not ideal, but it's the price we pay for limiting the other excesses of PDU-on. That is all until the F comes online in August. I think there are 80 of those. [;)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: obvert

With PDU-off you get a grand total of ... yes! All of 24 ([X(]) usable P-38E! Not ideal, but it's the price we pay for limiting the other excesses of PDU-on. That is all until the F comes online in August. I think there are 80 of those. [;)]

Ouch, I forgot I can´t "free up" any with PDU OFF...August is a looong way away...

[Cribtop]

If Mr. Kane doesn't get a bloody nose in the Samoas (which I think is likely given your focus there), then he is truly a great player. I think he is indeed going in blind without enough.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

If Mr. Kane doesn't get a bloody nose in the Samoas (which I think is likely given your focus there), then he is truly a great player. I think he is indeed going in blind without enough.

He was indeed! Not sure what tipped him off since there was no DL on any base but he turned back 1 day before landing. Could have been just a feint to try and lure my CVs out?

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] 8th of April -42 [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

China collapses like a house of cards. [:(]

------------------------
China
------------------------
Like domino all the roadblocks collapses in just two turns. It all begins with the rivercrossing roadblock collapsing.

Ground combat at 81,39 (near Tienshui)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 41057 troops, 782 guns, 629 vehicles, Assault Value = 860

Defending force 30350 troops, 165 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 429

Japanese adjusted assault: 624

Allied adjusted defense: 235

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1072 casualties reported
Squads: 13 destroyed, 77 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 9 (1 destroyed, 8 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
6892 casualties reported
Squads: 229 destroyed, 20 disabled
Non Combat: 289 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 9 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 13 (11 destroyed, 2 disabled)

They retreat into the hex SW causing massive overstack (its just 30k limit). Tom reacts at once attacking the following turn. Due to the overstack most (all?) supply is lost and DIS rises even among the entrenched units that held so well prior to this are rendered useless.

Ground combat at 81,40 (near Ankang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 36190 troops, 427 guns, 360 vehicles, Assault Value = 1097

Defending force 52527 troops, 191 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1070

Japanese adjusted assault: 552

Allied adjusted defense: 154 Now it begins... 90% AV reduction [:(]

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), supply(-)
Attacker: leaders(+), fatigue(-)

Japanese ground losses:
663 casualties reported
Squads: 14 destroyed, 58 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 11 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 10 (2 destroyed, 8 disabled)
Units pursuing 1

Allied ground losses:
8130 casualties reported
Squads: 314 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 253 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 10 destroyed, 9 disabled
Guns lost 12 (12 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Now things turn really nasty...these troops retreats due West...the turn after that Tom attacks another Corps to the NE. This stack retreats into the same hex... So now I have 4 hexes worth of troops stacked in one hex. I won´t be able to get them out before Tom arrives with his Panzer Armee. In fact he just got two RGT into the hex. I have Zero supply and 130k troops in a 40k hex...

I don´t think I will have to explain what will happen tomorrow when he attacks. He can now simply push this 140k stack in front of him causing massive losses until he reaches the plains.

So buy buy China...


------------------------
SOPAC
------------------------
So the invasion turns back 1 day out. Not sure why as there was no DL on any base. Only thing I can think of is that it was a trap to draw my CVs out. Looked convincing enough with 2 separate Amphib TFs, a big SCTF and MKB. Then again...would he go blindly into this without knowing my CVs location without having the KB nearby? Probably not.

------------------------
Burma
------------------------
Tom lands at Akyab. Only a RGT so far. Not going to react much to this right now.

[Lokasenna]

How many search plane hits did you get on him during the day? He may have been spooked if he sighted a lot of planes on search. It looks like you had good DLs on him, up from nothing.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

How many search plane hits did you get on him during the day? He may have been spooked if he sighted a lot of planes on search. It looks like you had good DLs on him, up from nothing.

He was probably lit up but CATs from both Suva and Pago Pago. I spotted him 3 days out though and he went straight on ahead until the last day. Very odd.

I actually said something like "so not Pago Pago after all?". He replied with "why would I want Pago Pago?" Not sure if he is pulling some PSYOPS or if it was sincere.

[Bullwinkle58]

I've seen you say a couple of times that AV is reduced 90% by being out of supply. It's 75%.

Section 15.0

"Units that are undersupplied don’t perform at their maximum efficiency, and ships that are
under-fueled are only able to move one hex every day. Units with no supplies operate at about
25% of their peak efficiency."

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I've seen you say a couple of times that AV is reduced 90% by being out of supply. It's 75%.

Section 15.0

"Units that are undersupplied don’t perform at their maximum efficiency, and ships that are
under-fueled are only able to move one hex every day. Units with no supplies operate at about
25% of their peak efficiency."

Thanks Steve! [&o]

Not sure where I got 90% from. I have always believed it was.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] 9th of April -42 [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Not much fun to report... [:(]

------------------------
China
------------------------
Supply is now completely gone in overstacked hex. I still need 3-4 days to move out. 4 Japanese units are already in the hex and 16 more are moving for it. I won´t get out in time. [:(]

------------------------
Java
------------------------
Soerabaja unexpectadly falls on the 9th. I missed that Tom moved in the other 2/3rds of the 2nd ID. I thought I could hold for one of possibly even two more attacks. More planes lost on the ground. My mistake.

Ground combat at Soerabaja (56,104)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 17042 troops, 338 guns, 117 vehicles, Assault Value = 634

Defending force 8328 troops, 59 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 170

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 252

Allied adjusted defense: 52

Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Soerabaja !!!

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
CW-22 Falcon: 1 destroyed
139WH-3: 4 destroyed
B-339D: 2 destroyed
FK-51: 7 destroyed
Do-24K-1: 1 destroyed
T.IVa: 3 destroyed
PBY-5 Catalina: 1 destroyed
S.19 Singapore III: 1 destroyed
Buffalo I: 3 destroyed

Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
296 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 34 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Allied ground losses:
1130 casualties reported
Squads: 52 destroyed, 16 disabled
Non Combat: 118 destroyed, 22 disabled
Engineers: 8 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 40 (40 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 17 (16 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Units retreated 10

Assaulting units:
2nd Division
56th/A Division
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
25th Army
5th Mortar Battalion
1st RF Gun Battalion
3rd Mortar Battalion
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
Marinier Battalion
3rd KNIL Landstorm Battalion
Roodenburg Battalion
2nd KNIL Landstorm Battalion
Afdeling Ritman
Van Altena Battalion
NI-MLD
Soerabaja Defenses
Soerabaja KM Base Force
Madoeng Defenses

------------------------
Burma
------------------------
Tom moves from Akyab to try and cut off my retreating troops. He may well succeed. Have to give this some thought weather I should try and get them out or not. I´m a little bit worried about moving forward and then being cut off from another landing behind me.

------------------------
SOPAC
------------------------
Tom lands on Nadi! I wonder if this was the plan from the beginning or an opportunity ceased with the possible abandonment on a Pago Pago landing.


------------------------
VP situation
------------------------
In general things are bleak at the moment. Strat points lost are up to 4100 right now. VPs score is currently 3,2:1 (20169:6258) and with the collapse of China he will probably get around 15000 more VPs from ground losses and base VPs. That would put him at around 35k VPs. That means I would need 9000 VP before the year is up or lose to AV. Not sure how to find 3000 VPs in 1942... Of course some can be gained from base building and recapturing Brisbane.

[Lokasenna]

I'm wondering how your VPs are so low. At comparable dates in my Allied games (mid-March), my VP low point was around 6500. I'm up to 12.5K in one game in late November 1942 and 11.5K in the other game in mid October 1942. It's not all base VPs for me:

Game 1
3/13/42 - 6852 total. 633 bases worth 5122 VPs (went down to 6500 total and 4800 from bases later in March).
11/23/42 - 12494 total. 524 bases worth 5770 VPs. Chungking was ceded in October, and it looks like his VP ratio is going to max out around 3.03:1 in the near future. That's with losing about half of the Chinese army (albeit only once, not many respawns), and Chungking/Chengtu built to maximum.

Game 2
3/13/42 - 6976 total. 714 bases worth 4948 VPs.
10/19/42 - 11526 total. 581 bases worth 6126 VPs.


Air losses will pile up...can you hit him anywhere? Even trading 1:1 in air actions benefits you in terms of VPs. I don't have a lot of VPs from ships either, but I do have about 1500 in each game (according to the wildly inaccurate Tracker tally). I do have Noumea in both games, and have mostly built out Anchorage, Auckland, and Canberra. Still working on Tahiti and Diego/Socotra.

So I don't think you're totally lost here, though you do need to get Brisbane back in 1942. I think you can manage it. An "insight" was forced on me recently in my Game 2, where there is fighting on the ground in NE Australia. Why bother getting LCU, plane, and ship VPs in the middle of the Pacific where I have to risk ships and drowned men? Why not just send everything to Australia and let the ships sit in port upgrading? I think you'll have an analogous situation here. Why risk your guys invading the Gilberts when you can get a better return on retaking Australia (and New Caledonia, which would be messy)?

You don't even need CVs. Let KB burn its prewar pilots against your unsinkable airfields.

[Sangeli]

Ya...the Chinese situation is worse than I realized with all of those out of supply units there. How much supply did you bring into Burma before the Burma road was closed? That's really the only way to get enough supply early on to prevent this sort of collapse. Probably time to evacuate units from the south as all of China is compromised. Maybe if you pull back to Kunming and the mountains you can get enough air supply there to prevent the entire Chinese army from being destroyed (or at least delay it). Maybe long enough to secure a foothold in Upper Burma so you can move the Chinese somewhere to rest and regenerate.

Although I have some questions about China. If you lose Chungking and other big cities do you still have the same squad and equipment production? Because if so it means if you can evacuate a handful of Chinese corps to India you could field a large army in exile in a few years after they accumulate reinforcements. It would be a shame for those 250 infantry squads China provides a month just pile up in unused stockpiles.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I've seen you say a couple of times that AV is reduced 90% by being out of supply. It's 75%.

Section 15.0

"Units that are undersupplied don’t perform at their maximum efficiency, and ships that are
under-fueled are only able to move one hex every day. Units with no supplies operate at about
25% of their peak efficiency."

Thanks Steve! [&o]

Not sure where I got 90% from. I have always believed it was.

Might be that some support devices fight at 10% AV?

Section 8.4.2.1

The assault phase consists of the following steps:

1. Assault values for surviving forces are determined, as well as the
minimum odds for a successful assault. Defending support type squads
are counted as having an assault value of 1/10 for odds calculations.
2. Combat Engineers reduce the value of the defender’s fortifications
3. Assault is resolved and the base holds or is captured

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I'm wondering how your VPs are so low. At comparable dates in my Allied games (mid-March), my VP low point was around 6500. I'm up to 12.5K in one game in late November 1942 and 11.5K in the other game in mid October 1942. It's not all base VPs for me:

Game 1
3/13/42 - 6852 total. 633 bases worth 5122 VPs (went down to 6500 total and 4800 from bases later in March).
11/23/42 - 12494 total. 524 bases worth 5770 VPs. Chungking was ceded in October, and it looks like his VP ratio is going to max out around 3.03:1 in the near future. That's with losing about half of the Chinese army (albeit only once, not many respawns), and Chungking/Chengtu built to maximum.

Game 2
3/13/42 - 6976 total. 714 bases worth 4948 VPs.
10/19/42 - 11526 total. 581 bases worth 6126 VPs.


Air losses will pile up...can you hit him anywhere? Even trading 1:1 in air actions benefits you in terms of VPs. I don't have a lot of VPs from ships either, but I do have about 1500 in each game (according to the wildly inaccurate Tracker tally). I do have Noumea in both games, and have mostly built out Anchorage, Auckland, and Canberra. Still working on Tahiti and Diego/Socotra.

So I don't think you're totally lost here, though you do need to get Brisbane back in 1942. I think you can manage it. An "insight" was forced on me recently in my Game 2, where there is fighting on the ground in NE Australia. Why bother getting LCU, plane, and ship VPs in the middle of the Pacific where I have to risk ships and drowned men? Why not just send everything to Australia and let the ships sit in port upgrading? I think you'll have an analogous situation here. Why risk your guys invading the Gilberts when you can get a better return on retaking Australia (and New Caledonia, which would be messy)?

You don't even need CVs. Let KB burn its prewar pilots against your unsinkable airfields.

Not sure about my low VPs actually. I think some has to do with the care Tom takes with his troops in China. He very seldom suffers any destroyed squads and always lets his armor spearhead any attacks. So far he has only lost 430 VPs to ground losses.

Can´t remember how my game with Erik looked at its lowest but against Joseph I think I ended 42 with 9000 VPs. I of course had Noumea in that one. Don´t think I did against Erik but I´m uncertain.

Its hard trying to hit him in the air as I really suffer from lack or range. I did my first offensive sweep just about a week ago. He is simply out of range. He in turn though can use his superior range and hit me with strato sweeps from afar. That usually ends in a worse ratio then 4-1 for me. I just have to keep trying to hit his bomb runs for now.

I agree about fighting in OZ. I´m fairly confident I can recapture at least the Eastern parts with Brisbane. I can probably put 6 good IDs into the fray there already and given 2-3 months I could possible have 10 IDs there.

Gilberts is a pretty low priority. New Caledonia and Noumea might turn out to be messy...but it also have a lot of VPs. Even if Tom doesn´t build anything up Noumea alone in its current state is 800 Allied VPs. Denying him Suva, Nadi, Luganville and Efafe is 850 Japanese VPs. Its also about as far away as you can get from the HI which is a bonus. [:)]

But I have to start working on my VPs....

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

Ya...the Chinese situation is worse than I realized with all of those out of supply units there. How much supply did you bring into Burma before the Burma road was closed? That's really the only way to get enough supply early on to prevent this sort of collapse. Probably time to evacuate units from the south as all of China is compromised. Maybe if you pull back to Kunming and the mountains you can get enough air supply there to prevent the entire Chinese army from being destroyed (or at least delay it). Maybe long enough to secure a foothold in Upper Burma so you can move the Chinese somewhere to rest and regenerate.

Although I have some questions about China. If you lose Chungking and other big cities do you still have the same squad and equipment production? Because if so it means if you can evacuate a handful of Chinese corps to India you could field a large army in exile in a few years after they accumulate reinforcements. It would be a shame for those 250 infantry squads China provides a month just pile up in unused stockpiles.

I think I got around 65k to Burma. Not sure though as I was running loads of smaller TFs of around 5k each. Could be 55k or even 80k Not sure how much difference it makes though as I think much of it flows back into India.

Yeah, I think "Run for the Hills will have to be my main theme in China from now on. Not sure I can get there before being overrun though!

To my knowledge the Squads and equipment production doesn´t change. But I have to pay PPs for anything moving out from China. And only a small handful of Corps are not perm restricted. I´ve already bought out two smaller corps (162 INF squads) and 2 IDs. The more potent Corps of 729 Squads will only arrive later though with the exception of one. So with Chunking in Japanese hands they will never respawn...its a shame because they are something like 1500 AV each!

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
But I have to start working on my VPs....

You could aim to go for VPs through attrition. 1 to 1 VP trades will put you further from from the 3 to 1 auto victory. If you're really desperate you could destroy the industry in Brisbane while the Japanese control it. That could generate a fair amount of VPs with low risk and relatively low cost.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Might be that some support devices fight at 10% AV?

Section 8.4.2.1

The assault phase consists of the following steps:

1. Assault values for surviving forces are determined, as well as the
minimum odds for a successful assault. Defending support type squads
are counted as having an assault value of 1/10 for odds calculations.
2. Combat Engineers reduce the value of the defender’s fortifications
3. Assault is resolved and the base holds or is captured

Might very well be. Happy news though. 25% is better then 10%. [:D]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
But I have to start working on my VPs....

You could aim to go for VPs through attrition. 1 to 1 VP trades will put you further from from the 3 to 1 auto victory. If you're really desperate you could destroy the industry in Brisbane while the Japanese control it. That could generate a fair amount of VPs with low risk and relatively low cost.

Would I really get VPs for that? [X(]

[Cribtop]

Starting to see how stacking limits can hurt the Allies in China.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
I think I got around 65k to Burma. Not sure though as I was running loads of smaller TFs of around 5k each. Could be 55k or even 80k Not sure how much difference it makes though as I think much of it flows back into India.

I don't think much supply can flow back over discontinuous dirt roads. Most of the supply that gets sucked up is probably from the Burma road rule which teleports from Rangoon to Tsuyung at a rate of 500 a day.

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
To my knowledge the Squads and equipment production doesn´t change. But I have to pay PPs for anything moving out from China. And only a small handful of Corps are not perm restricted. I´ve already bought out two smaller corps (162 INF squads) and 2 IDs. The more potent Corps of 729 Squads will only arrive later though with the exception of one. So with Chunking in Japanese hands they will never respawn...its a shame because they are something like 1500 AV each!

Well the PP cost for skeleton divisions after they've been nearly destroyed will be low Probably should use the restricted Chinese units to cover the retreat of the ones you can buy out and get them out ASAP. It sucks not getting the respawn but at least you'll have the production to fill out the handful of corps you pull out. Each of them alone takes 3 months of production to get to full strength so you can make good use of the production even with just a few corps.