Return of the Sheep! - JocMeister(A) vs. MrKane(J)

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Sorry guys, I don´t understand! [&:]

"Denial is more than just a river in Egypt." [:D]

We are not trying to make sense!

[JocMeister]

Ah, even though my English is reasonable some expressions and phrases elude me. [:)]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Sorry guys, I don´t understand! [&:]

Confirmation bias - the tendency to only remember things that confirm what you want to believe and forget the things that
contradict your preferred view of reality.
Denial - the psychological defence mechanism in which the person refuses to believe evidence that would force him/her to change their
belief in what is really happening. e.g. refusing to believe a loved one has died because to accept the truth would be too painful.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Sorry guys, I don´t understand! [&:]

Confirmation bias - the tendency to only remember things that confirm what you want to believe and forget the things that
contradict your preferred view of reality.

Oh, so THAT must be why China has vanished from my map?! Its just a black hole there now...very odd! [:D]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] 10th of May -42 [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Turns have slowed down a lot from the earlier ferocious pace. I think Tom is either busy with one of his other games or he is paying a lot more attention now. I hope its the first option. [:D]

------------------------
China
------------------------
Oddly enough Tom has stopped at Kienko. For now he seems to be happy with bombarding and causing 500-1000 casualties per turn.... [:(]

Still can´t get any troops with 0 supply to dig forts. [&:]

I´m going to leave behind whatever is not useful at Chungking. So many of the shattered units will be left here to be destroyed. I don´t need useless mouths to feed in the mountains.

------------------------
NOPAC
------------------------
Making the first cautious steps here. It will be small scale. But I will step up the effort here eventually though as I don´t intend to give this away to Tom. Some Canadian units together with US Engineers will start building up Umnak. A US RGT will arrive in NOPAC soon as well.

------------------------
OZ/SOPAC
------------------------
Well, my surprise worked as intended. Sadly the price wasn´t much. I had hoped to catch that big 10 ship TF loaded with troops...

Night Time Surface Combat, near Brisbane at 96,160, Range 12,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
xAK Shinryu Maru, Shell hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage
PB Tsukikawa Maru, Shell hits 4, and is sunk
PB Nichinan Maru, Shell hits 11, and is sunk
xAP Haruna Maru, Shell hits 5, heavy fires

Allied Ships
CA Louisville
CA Pensacola
CA Australia
CA Canberra
DD Stuart
DD Norman
DD Paladin
DD Panther

Night Time Surface Combat, near Brisbane at 96,160, Range 7,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DMS W-1, Shell hits 10, and is sunk
DMS W-4, Shell hits 10, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CA Louisville
CA Pensacola
CA Australia
CA Canberra
DD Stuart
DD Norman
DD Paladin
DD Panther

The surviving Haruna Maru is later picked off by a US sub.

Sub attack near Fraser Island at 98,156

Japanese Ships
xAP Haruna Maru, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS Sculpin

SS Sculpin launches 4 torpedoes

I would be very surprised if she made it although no sinking sounds were heard. Now its time to get the hell out of dodge. I´ll hide the CAs somewhere West of Tasmania. I have a hunch Tom is going to sortie the KB. I have some small xAKL TFs that may be in danger if he does. But it can´t be helped. Had to take the opportunity.

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Something Something
------------------------
Looks like Tom is pulling out of Brisbane. With everything or just a portion? Have to decide if I should give chase if he does abandon. Probably not as its a very long coast and a long way back to Sydney/Melbourne.

------------------------
CENTPAC
------------------------
Fleet movement is agonizing slow as we are escorting some very slow merchants (12 knots) carrying precious fuel. I will detach the fleet in a couple of days.

------------------------
Burma
------------------------
Tom has reached Northern Burma with the 5th ID were he is about to evict allied troops in Myitkvina. We have exchanged some sweeps where Tom has lost a few Oscars.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Sorry guys, I don´t understand! [&:]

Confirmation bias - the tendency to only remember things that confirm what you want to believe and forget the things that
contradict your preferred view of reality.

Oh, so THAT must be why China has vanished from my map?! Its just a black hole there now...very odd! [:D]

Ha! [:D]

We all have this in 42 as Allies. And don't worry Jocke, I'm a native speaker with a Bachelors degree in English and still had to look up 'confirmation bias.' Good term. I'm going to be using it too! [;)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: obvert
Ha! [:D]

We all have this in 42 as Allies. And don't worry Jocke, I'm a native speaker with a Bachelors degree in English and still had to look up 'confirmation bias.' Good term. I'm going to be using it too! [;)]

Yeah, but its pretty depressing seeing all your small VP progress outside China just being chewed up but the enormous losses suffered there. Right now I´m suffering around 5000 casualties per turn to bombardments alone. [:(]


Good to hear my English isn´t that behind then! [:D]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] 11th of May -42 [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Not much to report.

------------------------
China
------------------------
Looks like I will be able to get most of the southern troops out before Tom cuts them off. He now have armor in in plains which means its game over here. Even if I had supply there is no chance to stop armor in clear hexes.

------------------------
OZ/SOPAC
------------------------
It might not be the best time but I decided to let about 50% of the subs do their 4/42 upgrade. I hope the radar will help get more attacks in. Its simply not happening right now.

Tom spots my CA TF withdrawing towards Tasmania. I had thought to hide them there for now but I think I will pull them back to Perth until things calm down. I have no doubt the KB is already on its way. I have 6 10 knots xAKL that will probably not get away. Sucks because they carry a little fuel I wanted to NZ.

[Lowpe]

Selective reporting is what Japan pretty much reported to their people during the war. Sometimes it was very creative reporting.[:)]

Be careful, I never consider Perth a safe Port in 1942. Of course, you know that, too.

Just keep chipping away at the victory points. I really do sense the tide turning...not that there won't be some unpleasant surprises.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] 13th of May -42 [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Ouff, Just going to do a short update and then forget about this turn. KB sneaks into the Tasman sea as expected. What I didn´t expect was a TF that have been sitting in OZ for 2 months (waiting for fuel) suddenly had decided to go to Sydney all of the sudden. [&:]

Went back a couple of saves and the TF indeed has Sydney set as homeport. Not sure how its possible as I use "homeport" as destination and the TF came from the WC. Anyhow this TF has been moving for Sydney for a couple of days and just rounded NZ and straight into the KB. It did react away from the KB due West which gives them zero chance to escape tomorrow. Only consolation is that it is completely empty as well as having no fuel to get anywhere. But its going to cost me 20 Merchants, 4 APD and BB Oklahoma and BB Pennsylvania. [:(]

I can´t afford mistakes like this. Stupid, stupid stupid. [:(]

[BBfanboy]

Re: the tanks in China - some players have airlifted in British and American A/T units - the ones with smaller A/T guns.
You might also be able to airlift light AA units. Problem is supplying them.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Re: the tanks in China - some players have airlifted in British and American A/T units - the ones with smaller A/T guns.
You might also be able to airlift light AA units. Problem is supplying them.

Yeah, I think without supply its pretty meaningless to try and airlift any AT in. I wouldn´t have time to move them into Chunking anyway.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] Something Something [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Tom is definitively not giving up on Brisbane. In fact he seems to be reinforcing. Can I turn this into a Japanese Stalingrad or will this backfire badly for me...Normally I would feel quite comfortable but Tom has put a serious dent into my confidence and the debacle in the Tasman Sea isn´t helping with that...

What do you guys think?

Ground combat at Brisbane (96,160)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 3105 troops, 298 guns, 250 vehicles, Assault Value = 1733

Defending force 43491 troops, 336 guns, 155 vehicles, Assault Value = 1046

Japanese ground losses:
117 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
6th Australian Division
2/11th Armoured Car Regiment
25th Infantry Division
Americal Infantry Division
2/8th Armoured Regiment
34th Cmbt Engineer Regiment
2/7th Armoured Regiment
7th Australian Division
148th Field Artillery Battalion
98th Coast AA Regiment
1st Medium Regiment
147th Field Artillery Battalion
II Australian
2/11th Field Regiment
2nd Medium Regiment
210th Coast AA Regiment
259th Coastal Artillery Battalion
131st Field Artillery Battalion
21/22 Field Regiment
2/1st Med Regiment
2/16th Field Regiment
197th Coast AA Regiment
260th Field Artillery Battalion
96th Coast AA Regiment
2nd Australian Army
2nd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
109th Anti Tank Regiment
2nd Australian Hvy AA Regiment
35th Light AA Regiment

Defending units:
38th/A Division
Guards Mixed Brigade
38th/B Division
23rd Tank Regiment
21st Division
38th/C Division
21st Air Flotilla
24th Special Base Force
36th Const Co
31st Fld AA Gun Co
44th Field AA Battalion
37th Const Co
22nd Special Base Force
48th JAAF AF Bn
30th Fld AA Gun Co
16th AA Regiment
144th JAAF AF Bn

I used only two Artillery units to "testfire" the opposition. By the damage it looks like I caught some units in move mode. Several more units appeared on the rail to the North. They could possibly be have been bumped from STRAT MODE when my troops entered Brisbane.

Its a clear hex and I´m not sure Tom has spent supply building forts. But he is sending reinforcements to the area. This "missing" 16th ID is on ships moving for Rabaul. Tomorrow I ordered every single unit to bombard...

[Lokasenna]

As long as you don't get kicked out of the base yourself, I think you can hurt him here. It's close enough to Sydney that you can establish search to see any incoming relief ships, which will require him to keep KB posted nearby to assist with any withdrawal effort.

Can you close the hex sides? You'll likely need to keep a couple of sentinel units to prevent him from reopening the sides from the N or NW and allowing him to escape, but... close the hex sides, sit in the hex, bombard and bomb like crazy, and eventually he'll have no supply except what comes in by ship. Mine the port, camp there with subs (especially S-boats and Dutch boats)...you can attempt night time bombardment runs if you can establish LRCAP over them on the way back to safety, etc. Using Recon planes on Brisbane will put high DLs on any TFs there also.

Can you use PT boats to harass him as well?

If you do catch him loading, instead of unloading supply, you can try attacks... I would get even more forces there, especially one or both of the US Army combat engineer units. I'd also be careful of attacking until the devices in your units are Aussie '42 and USA '42 squads...that's quite some time, in some cases. The IJA 38th Division and 21st Division are good units, IIRC, and he probably has good forts with the stuff that's there.

[offenseman]

Agree w/Lokasenna, I'd go for a Stalingrad. You have a lot of decent armor there compared to his armor. Going to be hard to kick you out because of those. If available set up some fast SCTFs to raid and bombard. Be as annoying as you can be. If you annoy him enough you might be able to force a CV battle with your air cover searching. Try to get those assets in position to do exactly that.

[JocMeister]

Thanks guys. Sadly I think he will have control over both the seas and the skies. So I think its pretty much out of the question to isolate and starve them out. If I do anything I think it will have to be by force. And I think I need to do it pretty soon before he can reinforce. Judging by SIGINT he is pouring units into OZ. He is landing them further up North well out of reach for me.

I did the first preliminary bombardment last turn. Weirdest thing I have seen.

Ground combat at Brisbane (96,160)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 56906 troops, 1072 guns, 839 vehicles, Assault Value = 1733

Defending force 43394 troops, 336 guns, 155 vehicles, Assault Value = 1033

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 4 [X(]

Allied adjusted assault: 72

Japanese adjusted defense: 886

Allied assault odds: 1 to 12 (fort level 4)

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
137 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 8 (1 destroyed, 7 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
218 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 19 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 13 disabled
Guns lost 11 (1 destroyed, 10 disabled)
Vehicles lost 43 (4 destroyed, 39 disabled)

Assaulting units:
2/7th Armoured Regiment
2/11th Armoured Car Regiment
Americal Infantry Division
2/8th Armoured Regiment
25th Infantry Division
6th Australian Division
34th Cmbt Engineer Regiment
7th Australian Division
2nd Australian Army
2/11th Field Regiment
148th Field Artillery Battalion
131st Field Artillery Battalion
109th Anti Tank Regiment
96th Coast AA Regiment
2nd Australian Hvy AA Regiment
2/1st Med Regiment
21/22 Field Regiment
259th Coastal Artillery Battalion
II Australian
147th Field Artillery Battalion
2nd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
98th Coast AA Regiment
197th Coast AA Regiment
2/16th Field Regiment
260th Field Artillery Battalion
1st Medium Regiment
2nd Medium Regiment
210th Coast AA Regiment
35th Light AA Regiment

Defending units:
21st Division
23rd Tank Regiment
Guards Mixed Brigade
38th Division
16th AA Regiment
22nd Special Base Force
21st Air Flotilla
30th Fld AA Gun Co
24th Special Base Force
31st Fld AA Gun Co
44th Field AA Battalion
37th Const Co
48th JAAF AF Bn
36th Const Co
144th JAAF AF Bn

Very odd as I´m 100% certain I set all of them to bombard. Looking at the turn file no unit seems to have taken part in any attack. No clue what happened. Set them all to bombard again.

[offenseman]

I do not want to second guess you because you are more clear on the situation but with a result like that, I'd attack again. And then check fatigue and attack. Rinse and repeat. When he runs out of forts you will roll him back.

He has little armor. BTW Guards Mixed Brigade is a buy-out as it starts in General Defense Army. In case you are keeping track... [;)]

[Lokasenna]

Yep, knew he'd have big forts there. Still, you got a GREAT attack there considering you had 1:12 odds. I wouldn't have attacked, but it worked out amazingly for you. It's a shame you can't keep damage on the airfield... He must have little in the way of AT guns. Can you get more of the Aussie armoured units upgraded and sent in?

A point about him controlling the skies/seas - sure, fine. So you can't prevent an evacuation (I'd wager that you could at least contest it...), but if you force him to evacuate you are forcing him to act on your terms and not on his. Even if you don't destroy everything at Brisbane and it gets away, it's still a huge victory. He made a mistake by not protecting his flank, IMO.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] Something Something [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Something must have been really odd with that attack. Here is the next one. A more normal one.

Ground combat at Brisbane (96,160)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 53736 troops, 1062 guns, 676 vehicles, Assault Value = 1645

Defending force 45006 troops, 506 guns, 243 vehicles, Assault Value = 1031

Japanese ground losses:
47 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
31 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 4 (2 destroyed, 2 disabled)

I think I will have to come to terms with the fact that this is not going to work. I´ll give it a couple of days more but its not looking good. The fact that its a clear is also a disadvantage. I had forgotten CD guns doesn´t protect against bombardments.

Night Naval bombardment of Brisbane at 96,160 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

12 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Japanese Ships
CA Ashigara
CA Nachi
CA Haguro
CA Myoko
DD Tokitsukaze
DD Amatsukaze
DD Shiranui
DD Isokaze

Allied ground losses:
646 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 24 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 56 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 32 (3 destroyed, 29 disabled)
Vehicles lost 14 (1 destroyed, 13 disabled)

Night Naval bombardment of Brisbane at 96,160

Japanese Ships
CL Jintsu
CL Naka
CL Sendai
DD Asashio
DD Arashi
DD Nowaki
DD Hamakaze

Allied ground losses:
210 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

The 6th OZ take the brunt of the losses and DIS is up to 76 after one night. Tom can now replenish at Brisbane and then go again each night.

I´m going to do a test sweep tomorrow and check if there is any hope at all to win the air space over Brisbane. If I can do that these bombardments will be more problematic.

I think I will have to come to turns with the fact that this isn´t going to work...

[offenseman]

If he sets up a pattern of bombarding every night you know exactly where to find the enemy. Send a strong SCTF to meet it. Anything available that is close?