Return of the Sheep! - JocMeister(A) vs. MrKane(J)

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] Something Perhaps? [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

More developments in SOPAC...I always try to punish the Japanese player for using the KB in some way. This time I got a golden opportunity when Tom decided to sail the KB all the way down on the western tip of NZ.

I had a nice little force assembled earlier consisting of 2 IDs + 2 Marine RGTs. I decided to use them to secure Suva/Nadi. Tom has already landed on the island but brought too little to secure Suva proper and is now sitting with a RGT at Nadi. Current situation:

Tom spotted the Amphibs + the CV fleet last turn. He set the KB to full speed and is racing towards Noumea. He will arrive there next turn. How many days will he need to replenish? 1 or 2? Its pretty crucial I get the timing right so I can unload as much as possible before he comes storming in.

I only managed to unload about 26.000 of the 82.000 troops on the first day but I missed one unload phase. I doubt I will be able to unload everything before I have to run like hell though. Most motorized support will probably be left on the ships. But I hope to have around 1400 AV on the island before I have to bug out.

Perhaps Something Something helped here hopefully diverting troops that could have been used to hastily reinforce Nadi to Oz instead. If it did it wasn´t a complete failure.

This is very dangerous and I would have liked to put more combat troops on the island. But I have to do something to turn this around. Even if Tom turns all his attention towards this he can´t bombard with the same ease as Brisbane as he has to travel back and forth from Noumea.

[witpqs]

That's the spirit!

One common theme in the various suggestions above is that you have to set him problems to solve, keep doing it, and strive to set him more problems than he can solve successfully.

[Lowpe]

Dangle a cheap cargo ship at Suva and put up as much CAP and LRCAP there as you can.

[JocMeister]

Thanks witpqs. [:)]

Lowpe, I need to get the AF built up and I´ll put something together.

Quick but important question: Do I dare stay and unload one more day. Can he possible reach Noumea the turn after the screenshot and then depart again the same turn? I´m thinking not but REALLY need to get the ships out in time. He has used full speed for at least 2 full turns so fuel must be low. Noumea has a level 4 port and unknown support ships and troops.

[Lowpe]

How many hexes did he move last turn?

Do you think he merged with tankers/oilers at sea?

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
Quick but important question: Do I dare stay and unload one more day. Can he possible reach Noumea the turn after the screenshot and then depart again the same turn? I´m thinking not but REALLY need to get the ships out in time. He has used full speed for at least 2 full turns so fuel must be low. Noumea has a level 4 port and unknown support ships and troops.

I'd say it's probably safe to stay one more day. Any move he makes today is probably going to be OP point limited thus putting Suva just out of range. That being said, I would only leave enough ships in Suva to fill the port there; everything else is probably going to be unloading too slowly to make it worth the effort.

That being said, if the IJN opts for a partial refuel of the partial KB that was closest to Noumea he could refueled enough last turn make a full speed move today and put your ships at the bottom of the ocean. Shot in the dark says 20% chance this happens so really its up to you if you think it's worth the risk.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

How many hexes did he move last turn?

Do you think he merged with tankers/oilers at sea?

Between the 19th and 20th he moved 14 hexes. On the 20th he is still 10 and 15 hexes from Noumea. I have lost track of him on this turn (21st). I am assuming he has to replenish TTs and refuel.

With this in mind I should be safe for at least one more turn, right? He might not even have been able to reach Noumea with the half of KB furthest away? Sounds reasonable?

[witpqs]

First off, when he writes I read Mr Kane's AAR on this game, so I keep my comments very strictly guarded.

In a purely technical sense, looking at the screen shot above, the KB catching the convoy is not merely about the convoy being at Fiji when KB arrives, but how far past Fiji can the KB still catch the convoy?

You ask

Can he possible reach Noumea the turn after the screenshot and then depart again the same turn?

He can give those orders by using a destination near Fiji and setting a way point at Noumea with 'full refuel' orders for that way point, but that does not mean the refueling/rearming will finish the same turn he arrives. The factors are how big is Noumea port, what support ships, naval support, etc. does he have there, how many ops points will the ships have remaining when they arrive (I saw what you wrote and know you don't have all that data)?

Does the KB need to refuel/rearm at Noumea? If not strictly needed, will he do so out of prudence? If needed, will he skip it anyway and send tankers to Nadi to meet a fuel-less KB? If he skips it and moves direct at full speed, I count 26 hexes from the nearest CV TF (the middle contact) to the Allied carriers SW of Suva. To get even 8 hexes away requires 18 hexes of movement in one day - can the KB do that at this time?

If you choose to stay another day to unload, how fast can your convoy move east at full speed? Are there slower ships that can be detached to allow the others greater escape speed?

Although I have an opinion I won't give it because I've read both sides in the recent past, but these are the questions that I would consider. Hope it's helpful.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
Quick but important question: Do I dare stay and unload one more day. Can he possible reach Noumea the turn after the screenshot and then depart again the same turn? I´m thinking not but REALLY need to get the ships out in time. He has used full speed for at least 2 full turns so fuel must be low. Noumea has a level 4 port and unknown support ships and troops.

I'd say it's probably safe to stay one more day. Any move he makes today is probably going to be OP point limited thus putting Suva just out of range. That being said, I would only leave enough ships in Suva to fill the port there; everything else is probably going to be unloading too slowly to make it worth the effort.

That being said, if the IJN opts for a partial refuel of the partial KB that was closest to Noumea he could refueled enough last turn make a full speed move today and put your ships at the bottom of the ocean. Shot in the dark says 20% chance this happens so really its up to you if you think it's worth the risk.

Well, I would be fairly happy if he left one half of KB behind since my CV fleet is covering the landing. [:)] But he knows my CVs are in the area (4/4 DL) 2 turns ago so I think he will wait to join the KB TFs. And the furthest away KB shouldn´t be able to reach Noumea with 15 hexes to go right?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

First off, when he writes I read Mr Kane's AAR on this game, so I keep my comments very strictly guarded.

In a purely technical sense, looking at the screen shot above, the KB catching the convoy is not merely about the convoy being at Fiji when KB arrives, but how far past Fiji can the KB still catch the convoy?

You ask

Can he possible reach Noumea the turn after the screenshot and then depart again the same turn?

He can give those orders by using a destination near Fiji and setting a way point at Noumea with 'full refuel' orders for that way point, but that does not mean the refueling/rearming will finish the same turn he arrives. The factors are how big is Noumea port, what support ships, naval support, etc. does he have there, how many ops points will the ships have remaining when they arrive (I saw what you wrote and know you don't have all that data)?

Does the KB need to refuel/rearm at Noumea? If not strictly needed, will he do so out of prudence? If needed, will he skip it anyway and send tankers to Nadi to meet a fuel-less KB? If he skips it and moves direct at full speed, I count 26 hexes from the nearest CV TF (the middle contact) to the Allied carriers SW of Suva. To get even 8 hexes away requires 18 hexes of movement in one day - can the KB do that at this time?

If you choose to stay another day to unload, how fast can your convoy move east at full speed? Are there slower ships that can be detached to allow the others greater escape speed?

Although I have an opinion I won't give it because I've read both sides in the recent past, but these are the questions that I would consider. Hope it's helpful.

I think he will need to rearm since he spent a lot of TTs sinking the old BBs down at NZ. And I doubt he will take on the Allied CVs without TTs. But then again...he might not deem it necessary. I also think he will need to refuel since he went all the way to NZ and then back. At least 2 turns on full speed to reach Noumea and even then he might not have made it with the TF furthest back.

You do make a good point about having to bail out with the merchants though...might be prudent to get the slower ones going right away. They will probably need a head start while I think I´ll leave anything with 16+ knots for another turn...

[Lowpe]

I would take on Yank carriers with bombs. [X(] Wouldn't bother me a bit.

[Lokasenna]

It is entirely possible that what you see as full speed is simply mission speed - I have had KB and other combat TFs go at "full" speed for both movement phases, but only burn "mission" fuel. I.e., 16 hexes in a day, but at normal fuel burn rate.

He doesn't need torpedoes to sink you. The CVs carry plenty of bombs.

Normally I'm advocating an aggressive stance, but you've got to get out, IMO. Now. KB can do a full speed run in from where it is in that screen shot and bomb the crap out of your ships. If it's already been a turn, your time is up. Just hope he doesn't hunt you down on the way out. Scatter as much as possible.

Come back when KB goes elsewhere again.


EDIT: My calculus would come to a different conclusion if you didn't already have overwhelming force on the island. He needs to bring in more to Nadi if he wants to take Suva, even with just what you landed on day 1, largely thanks to the level 3.8 forts. You don't need to hang around to hold Suva. You can save your ships and come back later.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Thanks for the encouragement guys. It helps a lot! [&o]

Not sure why I feel so down about the game. [&:] I gave it some thought while I was driving home today but I can´t really find a reason for it. I guess I´m just stuck in one of those "downs" that seem to hit me from time to time when playing this game.

I´ll start looking at opportunities to hit him where possible. Perhaps a 85.000 man operation will cheer me up? [:)] I havn´t really considered resorting to nightbombing. Usually I try to avoid that when its not STRAT bombing but I guess I can´t really afford not to at this stage right? Tom has certainly not given me any breaks! [:D]

As Steve says those 5000 VP (will possible be 6-7k before Tom is done) will be massive. I need 1200-1700 VPs just to counter those. A huge number for an allied player in 42. But looking at Spiderys numbers there seem to be some hope left. Then again Tom is a far better player then I am. But if there is hope... Tom is being a bit careless with his navy at times and perhaps some opportunities will present themselves in the coming months.

Just got home and got the turn off to Tom. I´ll try to do an update after that.

It's like you've forgotten our game all of a sudden!! [:-]

Our game is the thing that got me through the first six months of my Allied game now. We did not care about harvesting points, but if I had or if we'd not made an agreement in China, you would have been looking at the same kind of VP situation.

You came back from that and played a great game, got to mid-45 in a great position when we stopped. There is no reason to think you can't do the same thing here. Psychologically it is just hard to see that while slogging through this part, I get that.

If he doesn't care about AC as a finality, why should you? How much more exciting is it to get to an advantageous position by 45 and possibly even a clear win?[:)]

[JocMeister]

Okay guys. Solid info and you are right. [&o] No need to take any chances with 1200 AV on the island. I´ll bug out but leave a couple of xAKs under a 100 plane CAP...just in case he really do come! [;)]

Out of curiosity and future reference. By my estimate he has traveled about 80 hexes + some extra down around NZ. How long can he go on without refueling? "Ish?"

Will have to wait until tomorrow for the turn though. Been sitting in Idas room for over 1 hour now trying to get her to sleep... [8|]

[Lowpe]

I am not reading Mr. Kanes AAR and I agree -- you have been there long enough.

How is your naval search to the north of Suva?

I would even be willing to throw surface ships at you...

Maybe set aside a select merchant that can dock, and have it disband to port after unloading, but that would be about it.

Do you have any pt boats? Mines (at and near Noumea)? I like the sixteen subs, but I expect the Japanese will steam right thru them...I would send some 7-8 hexes off Suva. Maybe most of them, only a few to cover Noumea.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
Okay guys. Solid info and you are right. [&o] No need to take any chances with 1200 AV on the island. I´ll bug out but leave a couple of xAKs under a 100 plane CAP...just in case he really do come! [;)]

Oh I wasn't aware Suva had so much already; I simply assumed that the ships in Suva were necessary for the island's defense. If you can afford to wait on those transports then definitely pull out. There is no good reason ever to risk transports carrying units to the KB if there is no urgency to land those units.

[aztez]

Cheer up! [:D] ...things will get better and forget about AV. You will have fresh look once that burden is off the table.

Everyone who has been playing the for the long haul has been depressed badly! It shows character to keep on grinding and unfortunately many throw in the towel as we have seen in the AAR forum.

I got beaten pretty badly with game vs Dave and can only say that you will learn new stuff by being in the ropes. All I can say that I'am much better player thanks to him.

Pick your battles and make him work hard... one victory, second victory and so on... the tide will turn.

[HansBolter]

Some torp armed PBYs at Suva would keep him honest with any bombardment TFs coming your way from Noumea. He has to stage to a position out of range of your short range bombers to hit it and your PBYs would force him to LRCAP that position from Noumea or use the KB to cover them.

[Encircled]

Hang in there Joc

Think about the fuel he's using and the system damage he will have taken

On the current situation, you do need to get out now though!

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Hang in there Joc

Think about the fuel he's using and the system damage he will have taken

On the current situation, you do need to get out now though!

It's possible he ran at full speed, but I think it's equally possible that he got "lucky" with mission speed movement and burned normal amounts rather than the full speed tax. Which would also mean minimal system damage.