ORIGINAL: Orm
Because the Blitz Bonus optional rule is in play and that give a +1 to the die roll for each two attacking ARM, MECH and HQ-A units in a blitz attack against a clear or desert hex in fine weather. This option has some other modifiers as well but Germany would have had this bonus if the weather had been fine.
I had (and still mostly have) forgotten the 1d10 combat chart modifiers...
On the 2d10 chart, you don't get bonus when attacking a forest hex ; which in my opinion is much better.
Now I have it: shall we say 4-1 +1, blitz table ?
* you lose 1 unit 50% of the time, 2 units 20% of the time, nothing 30% of the time
on the average, that's slightly better than an automatic loss (you lose 0.9 unit)
* you have 20% chance of keeping the hex : you automaticlly lost it
* germany had 20% chance of losing 1 unit : you handed him assured victory
* german forces had a 40% chance of being disorganized, stopping the whole offensive for the turn ; what shall I say ?
If instead Germany chose the assault table at no bonus, it would have been:
* you lose 1 unit 50% of the time, 2 units 40% of the time, nothing 10% of the time.
on the average you'd lose more than you did, 1.3 unit.
* you have 40% chance of keeping the hex.
* germany had 30% chance of losing 1 unit, 10% of losing 2, for an average of 0.5 unit
* german forces had a 70% chance of being disorganized
Overall, in that case, blitz was better.
All this assumes clear weather, that is the worst for you: even in that case, a defending against 4-1+1 was better than what you did.
Now of course, in non clear weather, you'd have gained one impulse since the germans wouldn't have attacked at all...
When you attack, you should always assume the worst can happen ; but when you defend, you don't make it that way, otherwise you of course have lost the war (what if my opponent rolls only 10s !?) ; decisions like this must be carefully weighted by watching the table: 4-1 was not that bad: only in 20% of the time, assuming clear weather, was it worst!
Yves
