Castles in the Sand - Spidery(J) vs MrKane(A) no MrKane please

[Spidery]

Did some rough estimates on the economy.

Reckon I need about 2 million HI for aircraft and engines, 3 million for the navy, 3 million for land and 1 million for pilots for a total of about 9 million. Current oil/fuel/HI stock piles are enough for about 8.5 million (not counting ship usage) so looking good for the raw materials. Current HI needs 500 days to produce the HI needed. It is 300 days until the B-29 can start wrecking my industry so need to keep most of the HI running through to the end of 1944. Of course, probably need it to run longer to use up all the fuel stocks to produce supply.

[Spidery]

May 31st 1943

Air Losses: 20 Japanese, 4 Allied, 1 Pilots
Japanese occupy:
Allies occupy:
Japanese land at:
Allies land at:

Subs

Quiet

Solomons

About 80 Liberators hit Rabaul at night bombing the airfield from 15,000 feet. AA is ineffective. Lost 3 Ki-44-IIc in air-air and 13 assorted planes on the ground, yuck! More signs of Allied activity as Catalinas do daytime search and two are shot down.

Burma

Quiet

Engineering

Quiet

Production

Ki-84r to 5/45.

Ki-64-Ib becomes available, not interested.

Reinforcements

Quiet

[Spidery]

May Summary

Another quiet month with no change in base ownership. Air losses picking up a bit as the Allies deploy better fighters. A bad attack by me at Warazup. We both launched naval raids, me at Buin him at Rabaul.

A lot of bases in the Pacific are having supply problems, plus also at Akyab, and this gives the minus on base VP. Allied expansion both at the front lines and in rear areas gives them VPs.

Code: Select all

           Japan        Allied
 Overall:   +525          +663
 Land:       +68           +65
 Air:       +281          +344
 Base:      -128          +120
 Sea:       +304          +136
 

[Spidery]

At sea losses.

Mine are a CA and a DD from my attack. 4 TK and 2 AKE lost to the PT raid. 1 AMc to subs, 1 ACM to port strike at Rabaul.

The West Virginia is wishful thinking on his losses. Additional to that I'm pretty certain of 2 TK and an xAK from sub attacks. This still leaves about 40 VP short on the tally which suggests may have sunk another cruiser and a DD.

[Spidery]

Industry still looks okay.

Code: Select all

 Oil:      -53,485
 Fuel:    +231,037
 Supply:   +57,408
 HI:       +71,979
 Vehicles:  +4,843
 Arms:     +15,748
 

[Lowpe]

Ok, I will disagree and say I think your supply looks low...everything else good.

For comparison: Here is Obvert's AAR vs Joc supply situation in July 4th of 1943: 4.7 million; by Aug 21, 1944 it dropped to 3.4 million; by June 1945 it is crisis mode.

Now, you have three advantages Obvert didn't have: 1. I think you are far along the supply expenditure path for late planes and engines; 2. you are scenario 2; better planes and night fighter program.

Obvert had 4.6m fuel and only .7m oil in July 4th 1943: by Aug 21 1944 that drops to 2.6m fuel and .3m oil.

[Spidery]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Ok, I will disagree and say I think your supply looks low...everything else good.

For comparison: Here is Obvert's AAR vs Joc supply situation in July 4th of 1943: 4.7 million; by Aug 21, 1944 it dropped to 3.4 million; by June 1945 it is crisis mode.

Now, you have three advantages Obvert didn't have: 1. I think you are far along the supply expenditure path for late planes and engines; 2. you are scenario 2; better planes and night fighter program.

Obvert had 4.6m fuel and only .7m oil in July 4th 1943: by Aug 21 1944 that drops to 2.6m fuel and .3m oil.

This is DBB-C (which is scenario 1 based) without refineries producing supply and without the extra industry added in later updates. This means I am producing 3300 supply less per day than in Obvert's game, or about 1.5 million so far over the game. To compensate for this I am trying to maintain larger fuel stockpiles. Relative to Obvert's game I have about 1.1 million more oil and 1.5 million more fuel which in turn represents about 2.5 million potential supply. So total saved supply potential is about 1 million better than in Obvert's game.

I believe Obvert's game ran into supply difficulties, in part, because he did not have the fuel to run industry.

Of course, if the HI is destroyed, so the fuel can't be turned into supply, then having all the saved fuel in the world won't do any good. On the other hand, once that happens the game is more or less over.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Spidery

This is DBB-C (which is scenario 1 based) without refineries producing supply and without the extra industry added in later updates. This means I am producing 3300 supply less per day than in Obvert's game, or about 1.5 million so far over the game. To compensate for this I am trying to maintain larger fuel stockpiles. Relative to Obvert's game I have about 1.1 million more oil and 1.5 million more fuel which in turn represents about 2.5 million potential supply. So total saved supply potential is about 1 million better than in Obvert's game.

I believe Obvert's game ran into supply difficulties, in part, because he did not have the fuel to run industry.

Of course, if the HI is destroyed, so the fuel can't be turned into supply, then having all the saved fuel in the world won't do any good. On the other hand, once that happens the game is more or less over.

Yes, I remember the mod without the increase in LI to offset refinery loss.

You have posted previously you are at the point where you have more than enough fuel, and will most likely not get a chance to process it into supplies.

Which is why I still think you should talk with Mr. Kane and get some supplies added to your pools to offset that lost supply from refineries now, before the game gets critical.

I think in his last post about the industry, Obvert still had enough fuel to run 1500 points of HI in Osaka and Tokyo. I seem to recall that globally Obvert still had 50% of his HI left as of July 1, 1945.

You have such a wonderful game going...I would hate to see it end prematurely over a supply situation that is not your fault.

[Spidery]

Yes, I remember the mod without the increase in LI to offset refinery loss.

You have posted previously you are at the point where you have more than enough fuel, and will most likely not get a chance to process it into supplies.

Which is why I still think you should talk with Mr. Kane and get some supplies added to your pools to offset that lost supply from refineries now, before the game gets critical.

I think in his last post about the industry, Obvert still had enough fuel to run 1500 points of HI in Osaka and Tokyo. I seem to recall that globally Obvert still had 50% of his HI left as of July 1, 1945.

You have such a wonderful game going...I would hate to see it end prematurely over a supply situation that is not your fault.

This is the same scenario in which Greyjoy conceded to Tom at the end of 1944. At that point Japan had 1.5 million supply and 1.5 million fuel. I hope to better that. Although, that rather depends on holding territory.

To win the game, Japan needs to hold on until May 1946. To achieve that requires having an effective industry running, at least, until the Soviets activate. I doubt I will manage that, but if I do then I will be able to use the fuel.

My view is that it just isn't cricket to change the rules in the middle of a game. Same as I wouldn't suggest introducing HR to curtail night bombing, or high-altitude sweeps, or a database change to unnerf the 800Kg bomb or torpedoes.

[Lowpe]

More than fair.[:)]

[Spidery]

June 1st 1943

Air Losses: 2 Japanese, 0 Allied, 1 Pilots
Japanese occupy:
Allies occupy:
Japanese land at:
Allies land at:

Subs

Quiet

Solomons

Liberators bomb Rabaul at night, 2 Ki-44-IIc lost in the air.

Burma

Helens bomb Kalemyo at night, no losses.

Engineering

Quiet

Production

N1K2-J to 6/44
A6M5d-S to 5/44 (first advance of a night fighter).

Reinforcements

Quiet

[FeurerKrieg]

I think a lot of Scen 1 & 2 DBB-C games are still running without the extra LI added back in. When it was first modded, that was a conscious decision because some felt there was too much supply for Japan in the DEI. I think the game is doable without the extra supply, just more of a challenge is all. If I start another game it will be with the LI added back in, although I'll probably be playing Allies at that point.

I watch this AAR so I can see how the supply game plays out and adjust my own game accordingly. So thanks for not changing things up mid stream. [:)]

[Spidery]

June 2nd 1943

Air Losses: 24 Japanese, 11 Allied, 8 Pilots
Japanese occupy:
Allies occupy:
Japanese land at:
Allies land at:

Subs

Quiet

Solomons

Liberators bomb Rabaul at night. One of the Irving night fighters is lost and the other is in repair. 3 planes lost on the ground and 3 in the air but 2 Liberators dont make it back (ops losses).

Burma

Weather grounds night strike at Kalemyo.

Thunderbolts sweep Magwe: 7 P-47D2 for 7 N1K1-J, 6 Ki-43-IIb, 2 Ki-44-II so just manageable.

Engineering

Quiet

Production

First Ki-46-III KAI night fighter factory repaired, second one only has 2 to go. Should be available in time to deploy before the B-29 arrives.

Oil pull from Fusan seems to be getting better with 20,000 fuel and 12,000 oil there after the weekly supply move.

Reinforcements

SS I-37, SC CHa-33

[Spidery]

June 3rd 1943

Air Losses: 1 Japanese, 0 Allied, 0 Pilots
Japanese occupy:
Allies occupy:
Japanese land at:
Allies land at:

Subs

I-10 sinks AM Matai (2 VP) between Pearl and San Francisco. Part of a tanker convoy heading to Los Angeles.

Solomons

Quiet

Burma

Quiet

Engineering

Moulmein forts to 5.

Production

Quiet

Reinforcements

An 8150 capacity TK.

[Spidery]

June 4th 1943

Air Losses: 7 Japanese, 3 Allied, 1 Pilots
Japanese occupy:
Allies occupy:
Japanese land at:
Allies land at:

Subs

I-19 probably sinks the TK Gulfland off the USA West Coast.

Solomons

Liberators bomb Rabaul at night. They come in in many packets and it costs. 4 Ki-44-IIc lost for 1 B-24D1 as ops loss. No losses on the ground.

Burma

Quiet

Engineering

Quiet

Production

B6N2a to 7/44.

Reinforcements

SC CHa-31

[Lowpe]

What planes make up your KB now?

[Spidery]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

What planes make up your KB now?

217 A6M5, 86 A6M5c, 91 B6N2, 190 D4Y4, 51 D4Y1 ready planes. Just about to replace the last of the D4Y1 by D4Y4 but it will be at least 2 months before the A6M5 can all be upgraded to A6M5c.

I also have 1 CVE that has 27 D4Y4 on it. Mostly been using this as a mobile ASW base to fill gaps between LBA.

[JocMeister]

Is that the version with the 800kg bomb? They pack a mighty punch! And 2 years ahead of schedule! [X(]

[Spidery]

June 5th 1943

Air Losses: 2 Japanese, 0 Allied, 0 Pilots
Japanese occupy:
Allies occupy:
Japanese land at:
Allies land at:

Subs

An unlucky day for the Japanese subs. I-10 takes a shot at TK Elsa but misses. I-10 puts a torpedo into TK War Sirdar but no fires or special damage and she looks afloat but detached. I-19 finds a big tanker, H.M. Storey, in her sights, hits, but it is a dud. This all on the same convoy heading from Pearl to the West Coast. The subs are conserving torpedoes and only sending 2 torpedoes at each target.

He seems to be sending tanker TF between West Coast and Pearl with limited, light, escorts. I may see if I can slip a couple of AMC through to target a convoy.

Solomons

Betties strike at Lunga at night from altitude, no hits.

Burma

Strikes at Kalemyo at night mostly fail but a few Helens make it and score no hits.

Engineering

Myitkyina airfield to 4. Balikpapan forts to 4.

Production

Quiet

Reinforcements

Quiet

Other

PB Fukui Maru is at Jolo, all system and minor damage has been fixed and she has 79 major float damage. Able to make 3 knots, it is 560 nautical miles to the nearest shipyard that can fix her, will she make it?

A PB is at Truk with 61 major float and no other damage. It is going to wait there until the ARD becomes available, at the moment it is occupied with fixing DD.

Allied Plans

Still no indications where, or when, the Allies will strike. The Essex should have arrived last month. If his carriers are in the Pacific then it should have joined, or nearly joined, the rest of the carriers. If the carriers are in the Indian Ocean then it may still be en-route. He has had 2 months of Hellcat production so that should have replaced the Wildcats on the main carriers, but probably not on the CVE yet. In short, he should be ready to go.

Sigint has occasionally suggested that he is sending troops to Perth so an attack from that quarter is a possibility. I think that his most likely option is an attack, without carrier support, either against Horn Island/Port Moresby/Milne Bay or Buna/Kavieng and if I commit my carriers there then a carrier supported attack against Sumatra, Java, Marianas or Kuriles.

The longer this quiet spell lasts the bigger the hammer will fall.

[Spidery]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Is that the version with the 800kg bomb? They pack a mighty punch! And 2 years ahead of schedule! [X(]

Yes and no. It is the "kamikaze" version with an 800Kg bomb but in DBB the effectiveness of the 800Kg bomb is substantially reduced.

Stock: Effect 1200, Pen 170, Acc 42
DBB: Effect 536, Pen 174, Acc 39

What may be more useful is that it can carry a 500kg bomb at range 7 and 8 which makes a big boost to the success of a range 8 strike. 500kg SAP stats:

Stock: Effect 738, Pen 112, Acc 33
DBB: Effect 400, Pen 129, Acc 29

The GP version of the 800kg bomb packs a good punch, not sure when that is used,

Stock: Effect 1788, Pen 113, Acc 42
DBB: Effect 1073, Pen 84, Acc 39