Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (A) vs. Q-Ball (J)

[Panjack]

Brad (Q-Ball) has graciously allowed me to be his next victim in a PEBM. It’s my first PEBM...so why not taken on an experienced player in a DaIronBabes-C with stacking limits and PDU-off? We’ll likely play relatively slowly, which works to my benefit.

I’ve “only” played 500 turns against the AI over about 2 years of real time. Only in WITP-AE would someone with 500 turns under his belt be considered a raw rookie. But it’s true; I’m amazed about how little I know about the game.

It could get ugly.

[Panjack]

Dec 7, 1941

Air attack on Pearl Harbor and Manila. Landings at Kota Bhura and Vigan.

PH: Broad but not deep damage. Only BB Pennsylvania sunk, but all other BBs hit numerous times but all should survive if this is a one-day attack. No other ship was sunk. No attack on the airfield and so the Pearl Harbor search and air defenses are still intact. Dodged the bullet here.

Manila: Only 2 subs and an xAK sunk.

TFs are moving though South China Sea toward Malaya, including one that appears headed for Mersing (rules are for no first-day Mersing landing). Of particular note: Zeros from Kaga-1 defended one of these TFs from my land-based bombers. The possible presence of the Kaga will complicate matters here.

Other TFs are moving towards the PI and possibly Manado.

Given the relatively light damage at PH and Manila, I count myself as lucky on this first day of the war.

[Mike McCreery]

At least you chose the allies :]

Patience is your virtue. Try to conserve your ships and armies until mid 42 to early 43. Then it is time to go on the offensive.

[Panjack]

Patience, yes. I sent my big Dec 8 turn to Brad and instantly wondered, "Did I forget to....?" and "boy, that was a poor idea to ....". [:(]

[DOCUP]

Good luck.  Try and keep your CVs.

[Panjack]

Thanks, DOCUP.

[JocMeister]

Good luck Panjack. First 6-8 months are really depressing...but they will pass. [:)]

Make sure not to lose any CVs. And try not to lose any AP/AKs as they convert to APA/AKAs which are pure gold. Run for the hills in China. Find x3 terrain and hunker down. Don´t try anything aggressive with the Chinese. Might looks like your are bathing in AV but its an illusion. Don´t worry if you lose China because you will if Brad wants it and have done his homework.

Oh, and read loads of AARs. [:)]

[rook749]

Good Luck. Mass and Protect your CVs. Start prepping for small counter attacks on day one and launch them if you located the KB and you can get in and out while is away!

[Bif1961]

Save your PBYs from tempting early torpedo attacks against invasion fleets and use them to search, search and oh yeah search.

[Panjack]

Thanks for your support! And, advice. I take it CVs are kinda important in this game? ;>

December 8, 1941

No disasters. Landings at Tarawa and a large invasion TF off of San Fernando, PI. The San Fernando invasion TF has 37 xAKs. Does that suggest a larger-than-average focus on the PI? That seems like a lot of ships.

Malaya: I had moved SAGs off Mersing to meet what appeared to be an invasion TF headed that way. This TF has now met up with 3 others and is 4 hexes directly east of Mersing.

Among the ships reported sighted in these TFs are 3 CAs, some DDs, and a bunch of transports, but that can’t be right for such an important landing. More big ships must be included. I assume the CV Kaga (which has been active nearby) might be in one of those 4 FTs (misidentified as a CA) or is lurking around nearby. The whole area is heavily searched (night and day) so the information I have is about as good as is possible.

I have 4 CL, 7 DD, and PoW and Repulse between these TFs and Mersing. None has experienced any battle damage. I guess the best grouping of these ships would be two TFs: (1) a TF with the 4 CL and 3DD along with (2) a TF with PoW, Repulse, and 4 DD. I want to have a battle during daylight and so the tentative plan is to set the PoW TF to “remain on station” at Mersing (so implicit 0 reaction distance, right?) and the CL TF set to patrol Mersing and with a reaction distance of 1.

Ideally, early in the morning the CLs react east and engage some of the invading ships, the ships protecting the invasion TF expend ammo and, I hope, get side tracked or otherwise discombobulated. Then later in the day the PoW TF does battle just offshore Mersing. The Japanese will be defeated and Singapore is allowed to survive for a couple of weeks longer! Or, more likely, the PoW, Repulse, and 3 CLs are heavily damaged if not sunk but a couple of J BBs and CAs are heavily dented and must spend time in the garage getting new fenders and other body work. Something between these two outcomes would be nice.

I’ll set all local fighters to LRCAP over the PoW TF and have all available torpedo bombers set to navel attack. Minelayers are headed to Mersing, but unfortunately Kates from the Kaga sunk the CM heading that way.

Is the above a reasonable plan of action?

[Panjack]

December 9
_____________________________________

Flummoxed by the sync bug. [:@] I tend to be disorganized, and the emergence of the sync bug threw me for a loop and, oh my!, I forgot to check one of my CV TFs which might now be approaching dangerous waters.

In any case...

The anticipated battle off Mersing didn't happen. The sightings that had 4 TFs seemingly headed for Mersing (inline with Mersing, most headed due west, and 4 hexes away) were misleading. As far as I can tell, some of the TFs veered off toward Kuantan; perhaps Q-Ball set me up to defend Mersing to he could land unopposed at Kuatan. If so, it worked.

But the good news is that, so far as I can tell, no Mersing landing is imminent and the retreat of units down toward Singapore is going well. Also, a bunch of J bombers were shot down attacking Force Z. The combination of Allied fighters LRCATing over Force Z and the massive AA capabilities of the British ships worked out well (helped, certainly, by luck).

Force Z did its job (as its mere existence held off an early Mersing landing) and it is, as I write, still completely untouched. Of course, the Japanese BBs and CAs in the area are also untouched. Only small warships have been involved in sea battles so far in this conflict.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

Thanks for your support! And, advice. I take it CVs are kinda important in this game? ;>

December 8, 1941

No disasters. Landings at Tarawa and a large invasion TF off of San Fernando, PI. The San Fernando invasion TF has 37 xAKs. Does that suggest a larger-than-average focus on the PI? That seems like a lot of ships.

Malaya: I had moved SAGs off Mersing to meet what appeared to be an invasion TF headed that way. This TF has now met up with 3 others and is 4 hexes directly east of Mersing.

Among the ships reported sighted in these TFs are 3 CAs, some DDs, and a bunch of transports, but that can’t be right for such an important landing. More big ships must be included. I assume the CV Kaga (which has been active nearby) might be in one of those 4 FTs (misidentified as a CA) or is lurking around nearby. The whole area is heavily searched (night and day) so the information I have is about as good as is possible.

I have 4 CL, 7 DD, and PoW and Repulse between these TFs and Mersing. None has experienced any battle damage. I guess the best grouping of these ships would be two TFs: (1) a TF with the 4 CL and 3DD along with (2) a TF with PoW, Repulse, and 4 DD. I want to have a battle during daylight and so the tentative plan is to set the PoW TF to “remain on station” at Mersing (so implicit 0 reaction distance, right?) and the CL TF set to patrol Mersing and with a reaction distance of 1.

Ideally, early in the morning the CLs react east and engage some of the invading ships, the ships protecting the invasion TF expend ammo and, I hope, get side tracked or otherwise discombobulated. Then later in the day the PoW TF does battle just offshore Mersing. The Japanese will be defeated and Singapore is allowed to survive for a couple of weeks longer! Or, more likely, the PoW, Repulse, and 3 CLs are heavily damaged if not sunk but a couple of J BBs and CAs are heavily dented and must spend time in the garage getting new fenders and other body work. Something between these two outcomes would be nice.

I’ll set all local fighters to LRCAP over the PoW TF and have all available torpedo bombers set to navel attack. Minelayers are headed to Mersing, but unfortunately Kates from the Kaga sunk the CM heading that way.

Is the above a reasonable plan of action?

Re: the Force Z react: - setting "remain on station" simply means it is not to return to port immediately. The "React distance" setting overrides the "Remain On Station". The other thing that overrides R-O-S is the threat tolerance. If it is normal and there is too high a threat of air strikes or enemy SCTFs, the TF will return to port. Change threat tolerance to "Absolute" if doing what you order is critical.
You were lucky with the air attack on Force Z - the AA is usually not enough to hold off the Nells and Betties - the CAP did that. He will add escorting fighters next time and your ships will be in trouble. He is also likely to move carriers to block your retreat to the south.

You may have been fooled by the movement algorithm that made it look like those TFs were headed to Mersing. Because of the way the hexes are laid out, horizontal and diagonal movement can be in a straight line but vertical movement requires the TF to zig-zag. So the algorithm always starts with the vertical movement first, and when it reaches a point where the rest of the path to target is direct horizontal or diagonal it switches to that. TFs coming out of Hainan or Formosa would zig-zag at an angle toward Mersing until they got on the line horizontal to their real target - Kuantan.

[Panjack]

December 10
--------------------------------
BBFanboy,

Many thanks for your comments. Through experience I might eventually learn to better read what the info on the map.

Your prediction was right: the Kaga moved to cut the Force Z off but I sent F-Z sailing rapidly away to the south. It was just getting too dangerous around Mersing with all the LBA and the CV Kaga. Unfortunately, a Japanese sub put two torpedoes into the PoW as it moved away. [:(] But the damage is relatively slight.

I'm taking frightful losses on the ground in China and in the air around Singapore. In Malaya I seem to be running out of fighters and torpedo bombers, which have failed to score a single hit on a Japanese ship. And the slaughter of innocents fleeing PI has been beyond belief. Adding those sunk by subs, so far I've lost 4 TK, 1 AP, 5 xAP, 9 xAK, and 15 xAKL.

This didn't happen against the AI! [;)]

Good news, though: A group of 4 Allied DDs came across a bunch of lightly-escorted transports near Miri and, after the shooting was over, 1300 Japanese casualties were reported. And then air groups flying off the Lexington (following up on intel that an invasion force was headed toward Tarawa) claimed a total of 9 bomb hits spread over two CLs at that island. I expect those CLs were up to no good.

[JocMeister]

Sadly it will get a lot worse before it gets any better! [:D]

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Panjack

Thanks for your support! And, advice. I take it CVs are kinda important in this game? ;>

December 8, 1941

No disasters. Landings at Tarawa and a large invasion TF off of San Fernando, PI. The San Fernando invasion TF has 37 xAKs. Does that suggest a larger-than-average focus on the PI? That seems like a lot of ships.

Malaya: I had moved SAGs off Mersing to meet what appeared to be an invasion TF headed that way. This TF has now met up with 3 others and is 4 hexes directly east of Mersing.

Among the ships reported sighted in these TFs are 3 CAs, some DDs, and a bunch of transports, but that can’t be right for such an important landing. More big ships must be included. I assume the CV Kaga (which has been active nearby) might be in one of those 4 FTs (misidentified as a CA) or is lurking around nearby. The whole area is heavily searched (night and day) so the information I have is about as good as is possible.

I have 4 CL, 7 DD, and PoW and Repulse between these TFs and Mersing. None has experienced any battle damage. I guess the best grouping of these ships would be two TFs: (1) a TF with the 4 CL and 3DD along with (2) a TF with PoW, Repulse, and 4 DD. I want to have a battle during daylight and so the tentative plan is to set the PoW TF to “remain on station” at Mersing (so implicit 0 reaction distance, right?) and the CL TF set to patrol Mersing and with a reaction distance of 1.

Ideally, early in the morning the CLs react east and engage some of the invading ships, the ships protecting the invasion TF expend ammo and, I hope, get side tracked or otherwise discombobulated. Then later in the day the PoW TF does battle just offshore Mersing. The Japanese will be defeated and Singapore is allowed to survive for a couple of weeks longer! Or, more likely, the PoW, Repulse, and 3 CLs are heavily damaged if not sunk but a couple of J BBs and CAs are heavily dented and must spend time in the garage getting new fenders and other body work. Something between these two outcomes would be nice.

I’ll set all local fighters to LRCAP over the PoW TF and have all available torpedo bombers set to navel attack. Minelayers are headed to Mersing, but unfortunately Kates from the Kaga sunk the CM heading that way.

Is the above a reasonable plan of action?

Re: the Force Z react: - setting "remain on station" simply means it is not to return to port immediately. The "React distance" setting overrides the "Remain On Station". The other thing that overrides R-O-S is the threat tolerance. If it is normal and there is too high a threat of air strikes or enemy SCTFs, the TF will return to port. Change threat tolerance to "Absolute" if doing what you order is critical.
You were lucky with the air attack on Force Z - the AA is usually not enough to hold off the Nells and Betties - the CAP did that. He will add escorting fighters next time and your ships will be in trouble. He is also likely to move carriers to block your retreat to the south.

You may have been fooled by the movement algorithm that made it look like those TFs were headed to Mersing. Because of the way the hexes are laid out, horizontal and diagonal movement can be in a straight line but vertical movement requires the TF to zig-zag. So the algorithm always starts with the vertical movement first, and when it reaches a point where the rest of the path to target is direct horizontal or diagonal it switches to that. TFs coming out of Hainan or Formosa would zig-zag at an angle toward Mersing until they got on the line horizontal to their real target - Kuantan.

No - major error here! The part in bold is wrong per both several developer posts and experience. Remain on Station overrides any React distance setting. Using Remain on Station makes the React setting meaningless.

If you want a TF to hang around at a particular hex and have a React setting, use Patrol and set it for just that hex.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Panjack

Thanks for your support! And, advice. I take it CVs are kinda important in this game? ;>

December 8, 1941

No disasters. Landings at Tarawa and a large invasion TF off of San Fernando, PI. The San Fernando invasion TF has 37 xAKs. Does that suggest a larger-than-average focus on the PI? That seems like a lot of ships.

Malaya: I had moved SAGs off Mersing to meet what appeared to be an invasion TF headed that way. This TF has now met up with 3 others and is 4 hexes directly east of Mersing.

Among the ships reported sighted in these TFs are 3 CAs, some DDs, and a bunch of transports, but that can’t be right for such an important landing. More big ships must be included. I assume the CV Kaga (which has been active nearby) might be in one of those 4 FTs (misidentified as a CA) or is lurking around nearby. The whole area is heavily searched (night and day) so the information I have is about as good as is possible.

I have 4 CL, 7 DD, and PoW and Repulse between these TFs and Mersing. None has experienced any battle damage. I guess the best grouping of these ships would be two TFs: (1) a TF with the 4 CL and 3DD along with (2) a TF with PoW, Repulse, and 4 DD. I want to have a battle during daylight and so the tentative plan is to set the PoW TF to “remain on station” at Mersing (so implicit 0 reaction distance, right?) and the CL TF set to patrol Mersing and with a reaction distance of 1.

Ideally, early in the morning the CLs react east and engage some of the invading ships, the ships protecting the invasion TF expend ammo and, I hope, get side tracked or otherwise discombobulated. Then later in the day the PoW TF does battle just offshore Mersing. The Japanese will be defeated and Singapore is allowed to survive for a couple of weeks longer! Or, more likely, the PoW, Repulse, and 3 CLs are heavily damaged if not sunk but a couple of J BBs and CAs are heavily dented and must spend time in the garage getting new fenders and other body work. Something between these two outcomes would be nice.

I’ll set all local fighters to LRCAP over the PoW TF and have all available torpedo bombers set to navel attack. Minelayers are headed to Mersing, but unfortunately Kates from the Kaga sunk the CM heading that way.

Is the above a reasonable plan of action?

Re: the Force Z react: - setting "remain on station" simply means it is not to return to port immediately. The "React distance" setting overrides the "Remain On Station". The other thing that overrides R-O-S is the threat tolerance. If it is normal and there is too high a threat of air strikes or enemy SCTFs, the TF will return to port. Change threat tolerance to "Absolute" if doing what you order is critical.
You were lucky with the air attack on Force Z - the AA is usually not enough to hold off the Nells and Betties - the CAP did that. He will add escorting fighters next time and your ships will be in trouble. He is also likely to move carriers to block your retreat to the south.

You may have been fooled by the movement algorithm that made it look like those TFs were headed to Mersing. Because of the way the hexes are laid out, horizontal and diagonal movement can be in a straight line but vertical movement requires the TF to zig-zag. So the algorithm always starts with the vertical movement first, and when it reaches a point where the rest of the path to target is direct horizontal or diagonal it switches to that. TFs coming out of Hainan or Formosa would zig-zag at an angle toward Mersing until they got on the line horizontal to their real target - Kuantan.

No - major error here! The part in bold is wrong per both several developer posts and experience. Remain on Station overrides any React distance setting. Using Remain on Station makes the React setting meaningless.

If you want a TF to hang around at a particular hex and have a React setting, use Patrol and set it for just that hex.

Dang! Just when I thought I had that part figured out! Thanks for straightening me out witpqs! I must have seen react happen with patrolling ships and assumed they were just set to remain on station. So many details .... so few brain cells.[:D]

[Panjack]

December 11, 1941
-----------------------------

Japan is unstoppable: landing seemingly everywhere, sinking transport after transport, and crushing any LCUs that get in its way. Fighter sweeps over everywhere fighters could sweep have lead me to pull back to safer airbases waiting a bit before I try to defend these bases again.

I am, however, able to move units down Malaya into Singapore and Chinese LCUs are moving promptly to defensive positions with good terrain. Two AVG air units have moved into China to help out. Japanese units seem to be moving toward Changsha from two directions but I hope to have enough units on good defensive terrain led by almost competent leaders to hold the Japanese back.

My first major goof: I overlooked a CL TF hanging out at Singkawang. The brown TF icon blended in too well into the brown/green landmass. The result: 27 Kates from the Kaga dropped lots of bombs on my CLs, but luckily only 3 hit. All ships should survive if they are able to flee the area.

And a bit of luck: CVs sailing through the northern Gilberts make two air attacks on Jaluit resulting in one sunk transport and heavily damaging five others, with about 900 casualties. But, Q-Ball informed me that my CVs got dangerously close to some torpedo bombers located in Roi-Namur. I assumed the Marshalls would have some bad guys but, not having played Japan or looked at the Japanese side before our game, had to guess about where and what Japanese were in the area. I will undoubtedly eventually pay the price for guessing wrong; but I dodged the bullet in this case. Better lucky than good!

Still, I want to be "prudently bold" in my response to the Japanese onslaught so that Q-Ball can't just assume I'll not risk my carriers in any situation.

I've got myself a bit of a problem in the South China Sea: I have far too many warships, CAs and CLs, kinda surrounded by Japanese carriers: the Kaga near Mersing, some smaller carriers in the northern part of the SCS, and perhaps one small carrier, or more, at Jolo. I'm hoping that some of these carriers, and lots of Japanese warships in the area, are running low of bombs and ammo. Unfortunately, I have to assume the bigger ships (BBs and CAs) still have their larger guns still fresh and shiny ready to sink my ships. My ships have most of their ammo but are running a bit low on fuel and so must soon exit the area.

[rook749]

ORIGINAL: Panjack
Still, I want to be "prudently bold" in my response to the Japanese onslaught so that Q-Ball can't just assume I'll not risk my carriers in any situation.

You have the key right there, you need to use your fleet including the CV's in such a manner and often enough he understand there is no free lunch but not lose them. As I am learning much harder to do then to type.....

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

December 11, 1941
-----------------------------

Japan is unstoppable: landing seemingly everywhere, sinking transport after transport, and crushing any LCUs that get in its way. Fighter sweeps over everywhere fighters could sweep have lead me to pull back to safer airbases waiting a bit before I try to defend these bases again.

I am, however, able to move units down Malaya into Singapore and Chinese LCUs are moving promptly to defensive positions with good terrain. Two AVG air units have moved into China to help out. Japanese units seem to be moving toward Changsha from two directions but I hope to have enough units on good defensive terrain led by almost competent leaders to hold the Japanese back.

My first major goof: I overlooked a CL TF hanging out at Singkawang. The brown TF icon blended in too well into the brown/green landmass. The result: 27 Kates from the Kaga dropped lots of bombs on my CLs, but luckily only 3 hit. All ships should survive if they are able to flee the area.

And a bit of luck: CVs sailing through the northern Gilberts make two air attacks on Jaluit resulting in one sunk transport and heavily damaging five others, with about 900 casualties. But, Q-Ball informed me that my CVs got dangerously close to some torpedo bombers located in Roi-Namur. I assumed the Marshalls would have some bad guys but, not having played Japan or looked at the Japanese side before our game, had to guess about where and what Japanese were in the area. I will undoubtedly eventually pay the price for guessing wrong; but I dodged the bullet in this case. Better lucky than good!

Still, I want to be "prudently bold" in my response to the Japanese onslaught so that Q-Ball can't just assume I'll not risk my carriers in any situation.

I've got myself a bit of a problem in the South China Sea: I have far too many warships, CAs and CLs, kinda surrounded by Japanese carriers: the Kaga near Mersing, some smaller carriers in the northern part of the SCS, and perhaps one small carrier, or more, at Jolo. I'm hoping that some of these carriers, and lots of Japanese warships in the area, are running low of bombs and ammo. Unfortunately, I have to assume the bigger ships (BBs and CAs) still have their larger guns still fresh and shiny ready to sink my ships. My ships have most of their ammo but are running a bit low on fuel and so must soon exit the area.

Use the AVG in China sparingly - it uses lots of supply if you keep it in the air every day, and if you remain at the same base all the time he will sweep and bomb it to wipe out the AVG. You need to hop around, including going back to India to replenish/upgrade. Also try to operate from bases that have rail links further back. That is the ONLY way you can move damaged aircraft from a base he has closed by bombing.

Your CVs in the Marshalls were not completely vulnerable - those TBs likely had no fighter escort that could reach you and you do have some good fighter pilots on your CVs.

Don't count on the Japanese CVs running out of bombs quickly - they have greater capacity that the equivalent Allied CV. You may have to just sprint past them. If fuel is too low for a two-day sprint, get some expendable merchantmen with nearly full tanks along their path and refuel at sea, or use tankers at a small base (less likely to be reconned).

[Panjack]

Rook749: You're right: the THEORY of what to do with CVs early is straightforward, the actual practice is much harder. My main problem is my relative lack of skill in reading the tea leaves (of intelligence) so to have some idea of where the KB is hanging out.

BBFanboy: Very good suggestions about AVG. It looks like, given movements of Japanese carriers last turn, that I have an opening to have my SAG "trapped" in the South China Sea run away, but I'm playing with the idea of having them try to cause some trouble first.